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Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Next Gen Consoles Power Level

  • 5.8TF (24CU ) 7nm DUV ≥ 1660Ti tier

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    66

ColdToffee

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Oct 24, 2017
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I would like next-gen to bring back Folding@Home. Navi improved SIMD abilities could run it better than the ps3 CELL. I understand it had to skip current gen, it would be pointless to run it on the hairdryer cpu and meh gpus ps4/x1 have.
 

sonomamashine

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DeepEnigma

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My reaction to reading this article:
Clkickbait indeed. Sony only reiterated what they did with the PS4 and all gen long.

But some people are too intellectually inept (bias?) to pay attention over the course of the gen, and the context of nuance in the language they have been using.
 
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Dec 12, 2006
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I just realised there's some obvious information in the table above = a 300mm diameter wafer is 70,000 mm2 , and the price given is ~$10,000 per wafer .. so that gives a cost per mm2 of $0.14

$14 for 100mm2, $28 for 200mm2, $42 for 300mm2, $56 for 400mm2 - interesting figures if correct
[edit - the above figures include bad chips with defects - see below for yields]

Note the other table data seems to be based on a die size of ~128mm2 with a yield of 76% (price +33% per chip)

... -at ~400mm2 that yield would be expected to extrapolate to ~43% giving an additional cost per die increase of 1.75x . However elsewhere yields have been stated to be ~85% - assuming the same die size that extrapolates to a lower cost increase at 400mm2 of 1.38x

[edit2] my calculated APU BOMs are therefor : $42 200mm2 ; $80 300mm2 ; $132 400mm2 (I think initial PS4 APU costs were ~$100 and initial PS3 Cell+RSX costs were $200+ ! )
I think you're assuming that every mm2 of a wafer is usable. It's not. There will be free space on the wafer that can only partially fit a complete die.

For a 400mm2 die you're assuming 70,000 / 400 = 175 dies per wafer. With a wafer cost of $10,000.... $10,000 / 175 = $57.14 per die

You're going to be getting less than that because all the free space can't be grouped, you will have partials that are unusable for a full die.

For a 300mm diameter wafer and 400mm2 die, it's probably going to look more like this:

Best case 137 dies per wafer (100% yield), $10,000 / 137 = $72.99 per die
Worst case 116 dies per wafer (85% yield), $10,000 / 116 = $86.21 per die

A defect density of 0.0412 / sq cm gives you 85% yield.

But the the actual yield is likely to be higher than 85% with the same defect density.

This is because CUs cover most of the die area and we have some redundancy (disabling 1 CU pair in each shader engine) to allow for defects. Dies with faults outside of the CUs will not be usable though.


 
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SonGoku

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@SonGoku what are your guess's on ghost of tsushima and halo knowing that both studio's are in the front line in the development on next gen consoles, what do you think Tf wise
Both are crossgen so they won't be next gen impressive
Is there even any indication ghost of tsushima will launch on ps5 as well and not just BC? It looks like a PS4 game 100%

Don't know about Halo, all we seen is a cutscene
 

xool

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I think you're assuming that every mm2 of a wafer is usable. It's not. There will be free space on the wafer that can only partially fit a complete die.

For a 300mm diameter wafer and 400mm2 die, it's probably going to look more like this:

Best case 137 dies per wafer (100% yield), $10,000 / 137 = $72.99 per die
Yeah good point - I get worse case edge overlapping 20x20mm dies at around 33 to 34 on a 300mm wafer [math is roughly (pi*300)/sqrt(20*20+20*20) ie edge circumference divided by maxwidth across 400mm square die - it's rough but it gives a close result to the truth]

- so my numbers basically match at 175-33 = 142 vs yours at 137 -well near enough

It depends on the exact shape of the die, but at 35 edge rejects per wafer gives me a cost increase of an additional +25% at 400mm2 (+17% at 300mm2, +13$ at 200mm2 - note less losses for smaller chips)

My new APU BOM estimates (ignoring packaging -fixed cost?) , ignores saved chips due to CU redundancy :

$46 200mm2 ; $94 300mm2 ; $165 400mm2

[Note Zen2 yields have been quoted at 75% for 88mm2 which is even worse yields than I'm using in the estimates, but I suppose that will increase over time - anyone got newer yield figures for 7nm ?]
 
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SonGoku

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(ASML makes the actual tooling for foundries)
Anthony Yen leads ASML's Technology Development Center. From 2006 to 2017, he was with TSMC where he led the development of EUV lithography, including its mask technology, for high-volume manufacturing. The joint TSMC-ASML team realized, first time in the field, an EUV power of 90W in the fall of 2014 and an average throughput of 500 wafers per day for 4 consecutive weeks in the summer of 2015.
Clkickbait indeed. Sony only reiterated what they did with the PS4 and all gen long.

But some people are too intellectually inept (bias?) to pay attention over the course of the gen, and the context of nuance in the language they have been using.
Even so, i think $500 is a given for both and will sell well regardless to early adopters the first year if specs match the price.
 
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iamvin22

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I would like next-gen to bring back Folding@Home. Navi improved SIMD abilities could run it better than the ps3 CELL. I understand it had to skip current gen, it would be pointless to run it on the hairdryer cpu and meh gpus ps4/x1 have.
My account was massive for folding@home. I absolutely loved and agree they should bring it back
 
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Insane Metal

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Mar 11, 2006
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PS5 and XII: 7nm (the one being used right now), no more than 10TF (NAVI/RDNA).

YOU HEARD IT HERE FOLKS.

There's absolutely no way a newer node will be used for these consoles imo.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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14.1 TF

Book it!


In a RGB color space, hex #ff2400 (also known as Scarlet) is composed of 100% red, 14.1% green and 0% blue. Whereas in a CMYK color space, it is composed of 0% cyan, 85.9% magenta, 100% yellow and 0% black. It has a hue angle of 8.5 degrees, a saturation of 100% and a lightness of 50%. #ff2400 color hex could be obtained by blending #ff4800 with #ff0000. Closest websafe color is: #ff3300.
 

sonomamashine

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Jun 29, 2019
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Both are crossgen so they won't be next gen impressive
Is there even any indication ghost of tsushima will launch on ps5 as well and not just BC? It looks like a PS4 game 100%

Don't know about Halo, all we seen is a cutscene
even cross gen ghost looks great and the gameplay we saw is definitely NOT running on a PS4 pro .
usually they always lie on cutscenes (graphics) but Halo look'd legit (disappointing) but legit, im sure you can draw conclusions from that .
 

SonGoku

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even cross gen ghost looks great and the gameplay we saw is definitely NOT running on a PS4 pro .
Crossgen games are never impressive compared to real next gen imo.
At most is equal to a PC version with settings turned up, nothing groundbreaking really.
usually they always lie on cutscenes (graphics) but Halo look'd legit (disappointing) but legit, im sure you can draw conclusions from that .
Im curious because i read this before, what exactly was so disappointing about that cut scene?
To me it looked on par with any other current gen game
 
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Jul 29, 2013
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Also, what AMD themselves said... 7nm Zen 2.
They haven't explicitly said they're not using 7nm+, but they have said they're using 7nm. Just marketing slides, but it's something...




I have a feeling Sony doesn't feel as desperate about performance as some of their fans. With a smooth transition they will maintain superior adoption compared to MS, Nintendo does their own thing, and Stadia is poop on a stick.

MS and Sony are working together, not against. Despite what people think, they are not in another arms race like 7th gen...
“The two companies will explore joint development of future cloud solutions in Microsoft Azure to support their respective game and content-streaming services,” Microsoft said in a statement. Sony’s existing game and content-streaming services will also be powered by Microsoft Azure in the future.
 
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SonGoku

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@CrustyBritches Yeah its just standard pr release, they can't confirm either way before their semicustom partner reveals the features
For 4K gaming they need 2080 perfomance minimum to show a next gen leap. If their focus remains 4k i expect no less than 10.5TF (doable on duv)
 
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Negotiator

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I would like next-gen to bring back Folding@Home. Navi improved SIMD abilities could run it better than the ps3 CELL. I understand it had to skip current gen, it would be pointless to run it on the hairdryer cpu and meh gpus ps4/x1 have.
I don't know what gave you that impression. The spiritual successor of Cell SPU stream processing is GPGPU stream processing. PS4 GPU excels at compute workloads (it's a GCN 1.1 part with 8 ACEs, not GCN 1.0 with 2 ACEs) and it would handle Folding@Home just fine.

Navi was designed to bring rasterization efficiency on par with nVidia (SIMD32 is analogous to nVidia's warp having 32 threads), at the expense of compute raw power and some granularity loss:



GCN and more precisely Vega (Radeon VII) is still the compute powerhouse.
 
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