Support NeoGAF

[riceandbeans]

Who knows, though? Glasses-free 3D is a pretty cool gimmick so I imagine this survey will look different later in the year.

Gotta be kidding me. An iPad?

Still, the poll is up in the air. The Nintendo DS is a 6 year old system so demand isn't gonna be as high and the DSi isn't exactly new hardware. I don't see iPod touches eclipsing the 3DS in gaming either.

 

[dream]

Like I said, I think that survey will look different once 3DS kiosks roll out. But iOS devices have a higher chunk of mindshare than people think...even in the 6-12 demographic.

I can't believe there's a "6-12 demographic."

 

[345triangle]

i couldn't care less how this thing sells beyond the fact that it will inevitably hit at least a base level of success because of what it is. six years on and i'm playing a newly-released PSP game more than anything else - does the DS's greater success diminish this fact? of course not. there will be a lot of awesome 3DS games that i will personally enjoy, and that's all that matters. the article seems to be comparing it to PSP like that's a bad thing, but the PSP was a success by every metric except sales-age.

i mean, yeah, it's dumb that the download store isn't online from the start, but what can you do. it wasn't on the iphone or ipod touch at the start either.

 

[plagiarize]

Like I said, I think that survey will look different once 3DS kiosks roll out. But iOS devices have a higher chunk of mindshare than people think...even in the 6-12 demographic.

I can't believe there's a "6-12 demographic."

there's no disputing that in October of 2010 a lot of 6 to 12 year olds wanted iOS stuff. no disputing it at all.

kids love iPads and iPhones. that's why a lot of parents buy their kids iPod touches. cause they're sick and tired of their kid screwing with their own stuff.

reading too much into that chart seems dangerous though.

6-12 year olds want regular mobile phones more than they want an iPhone. APPLE AM DOOMED.

 

[BertramCooper]

Considering Nintendo has barely even started to market the system, I'd take these results with a microscopic grain of salt.

 

[apana]

But that survey said they wanted the PS3 slim more than Kinect or the 360 slim. I must be living in a different USA.

 

[dream]

there's no disputing that in October of 2010 a lot of 6 to 12 year olds wanted iOS stuff. no disputing it at all.

kids love iPads and iPhones. that's why a lot of parents buy their kids iPod touches. cause they're sick and tired of their kid screwing with their own stuff.

reading too much into that chart seems dangerous though.

6-12 year olds want regular mobile phones more than they want an iPhone. APPLE AM DOOMED.

Don't you think that could a problem for traditional gaming devices, though? Kids today have a different expectation of what entertainment devices should be.

Hell, who am I kidding. They'll probably end up getting a 3DS along with their iPad 2s.

 

[kittens]

Considering Nintendo has barely even started to market the system, I'd take these results with a microscopic grain of salt.

Pretty much.

I've been babysitting part-time for about three years now, and the age range I work with most is four to twelve. All the ones that play video games are insanely hyped about the 3DS, and it's almost entirely because of the 3D screen.

 

[AkuMifune]

But that survey said they wanted the PS3 slim more than Kinect or the 360 slim. I must be living in a different USA.

Probably because they already have those things.

 

[charlequin]

This survey was taken in October. I think it will look very different March 20th, at least.

Especially given that all (relatively speaking) of those kids got an iPod Touch for Christmas and have not suddenly magically stopped wanting new things as a result.

Gotta be kidding me. An iPad?

stop the presses, kids want things they see on TV

 

[civilstrife]

This is such a "No shit, Sherlock" that it baffles me that anyone even bothered to say it.

Since when has Nintendo ever given a shit about what other people consider to be "current gen" tech, services or product philosophy?

3DS has been in the tech limelight since E3 because frankly it does have the most impressive looking handheld games yet seen on a dedicated gaming platform.

But anyone who thought it would hold that position for long were kidding themselves.

When Sony wakes up next week, Nintendo will once again be viewed as having an underpowered console, and all will be right with the world. Fanboys will mock it, the forum will erupt in war, and the cycle begins anew.

Whether or not the thing will succeed in the market depends on a whole lot of shit we have no clue about yet on both sides.

 

[DiscoJer]

Why? People keep bringing up the fact 3DS is in trouble cause of 40 dollar games etc. Clearly in that case the iOS market is conditioning people to expect things for cheap.

The reality is Publishers spending 2 million dollars to make a 3DS game are not going to sell their 3DS game for 99 cents or even 5 dollars. For every Angry bird that sells exceptionally well theres 900 other games that sell shit.

The problem is though, that we've seen a lot of DS and PSP games that were $30-40, end up on the iPhone or XLBA/PSN for $15 and under.

GTA:Chinatown Wars and PuzzleQuest are probably the best known examples of this. But there are a lot more.

And going the other way, you see games that are 99 cents on the iPhone be sold for $4-10 on the DSi/Wii/PSP.

That sort of model is not really sustainable for very long. Eventually people are going to get fed up paying a lot more for basically the same game.

That said, because Nintendo is Nintendo, they don't really need third parties as much. But it's definitely going to be a problem for the PSP2 (as it was for the PSP).

 

[snackman]

Bad poll everybody already owns Xbox360 lol so of course PS3 would be on top but its too late for most to buy PS3 now anyways.

 

[apana]

Probably because they already have those things.

Kinect released in November right?

 

[_Alkaline_]

Considering Nintendo has barely even started to market the system, I'd take these results with a microscopic grain of salt.

Hell, apparently a lot more kids want a PS3 than a 360 in the US.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

stop the presses, kids want things they see on TV

I want to see where Pony ranks.

 

[avatar299]

The problem is though, that we've seen a lot of DS and PSP games that were $30-40, end up on the iPhone or XLBA/PSN for $15 and under.

GTA:Chinatown Wars and PuzzleQuest are probably the best known examples of this. But there are a lot more.

And going the other way, you see games that are 99 cents on the iPhone be sold for $4-10 on the DSi/Wii/PSP.

That sort of model is not really sustainable for very long. Eventually people are going to get fed up paying a lot more for basically the same game.

That said, because Nintendo is Nintendo, they don't really need third parties as much. But it's definitely going to be a problem for the PSP2 (as it was for the PSP).

GTA: CTW is a really bad game to use to defend Apple. The game wouldn't exist if the market forced them to sell the game at 5 bucks.

 

[Deku]

GTA: CTW is a really bad game to use to defend Apple. The game wouldn't exist if the market forced them to sell the game at 5 bucks.

How well did it sell by the way. T2 also took CivRev to the Appstore.

 

[outunderthestars]

I want to see where Pony ranks.

Not very high. Someone made a Pony app and priced it at $.99 pretty much destroying the pony market.

 

[dream]

T2 also took CivRev to the Appstore.

They didn't just port it -- they made it free for a day at one point.

I don't really get App Store economics.

 

[outunderthestars]

They didn't just port it -- they made it free for a day at one point.

I don't really get App Store economics.

People buy games when they see them on the top selling game lists.


making it free for a day shoots it up the charts, getting more exposure without having to pay for marketing.

 

[Zek]

I don't think Nintendo can or should ever attempt to compete with the smart phone market. Half the advantage of gaming on a smartphone is that it's on the phone you're already carrying around, and nobody thinks Nintendo can do a phone. Nintendo should stick to gaming systems. No, they won't be the most casual form of gaming on the market anymore, but then they never really were in the first place.

 

[civilstrife]

If Apple products are supposed to destroy dedicated gaming devices, how come DS hardware and software are still selling like hot cakes?

 

[Aaron]

GTA: CTW is a really bad game to use to defend Apple. The game wouldn't exist if the market forced them to sell the game at 5 bucks.

You could buy Ghost Trick on the iphone in Japan before it came out in the US on DS. That's probably the best example, especially since the iphone version sacrifices nothing for a game that's touch-based to begin with. It's also substantially cheaper. Most games come to iphone much latter, and usually with some minor issues.

Chinatown though is actually more involved than I want from a handheld. I want a game I'll be playing in five minute stints, not for twenty mins or so at a stretch.

 

[outunderthestars]

If Apple products are supposed to destroy dedicated gaming devices, how come DS hardware and software are still selling like hot cakes?

The DS hardware was down roughly 40% worldwide over 2009 totals. It the second year in a row of declining DS sales.

 

[Empyrean Heaven]

That was actually really good. A well-written, well-thought out, and well-done piece. Obviously needs to start putting downloadable games as a priority rather than a necessity, and with some of the things I've seen so far from the 3DS I think they will.

Either way, it's much better than the other contrarian article I've found about the 3DS, this one by Kotaku's Luke Plunkett: http://kotaku.com/5738402/the-price-of-the-3ds-is-too-damn-high-and-other-complaints

And is it just me or does Luke Plunkett sound a bit too much like he's trying to troll Nintendo fans sometimes? Pretty much every article he writes about Nintendo is negative, and filled with tons of "teh doomed" jargon that went out of style years ago. Seriously, he needs to get the memo that Nintendo fanboy bashing hasn't been cool since the mid-aughts, when you had Game Informer, Tallarico and Pereira at G4, and most of the staff of Ziff Davis (mostly Kennedy, Davison, Mielke, and Hsu) getting in on the fun.

 

[jman2050]

The DS hardware was down roughly 40% worldwide over 2009 totals. It the second year in a row of declining DS sales.

A) Its absolute totals still count as "hotcakes" under any reasonable measure.

B) Can you demonstratively prove that the iDevices were responsible for this decline and not something more obvious like, say, time?

 

[slit]

The DS hardware was down roughly 40% worldwide over 2009 totals. It the second year in a row of declining DS sales.

What would you expect with a nearly 7 year old handheld?

 

[GCX]

The DS hardware was down roughly 40% worldwide over 2009 totals. It the second year in a row of declining DS sales.

This information tells us that the DS is having a normal console life cycle.

 

[Gahiggidy]

Who knows, though? Glasses-free 3D is a pretty cool gimmick so I imagine this survey will look different later in the year.

Here's the updated version...

 

[Pachinko]

Am I the only one that see's ralph wiggum repeatadly turning the dial to NO when I see that companies bother to come up with a survey aimed at 6-12 year olds?

And from the same episode the itchy and scratchy owner saying something about kids being stupid and not known what they want.

Yeah.


I read Chris' article and found it raised some valid points and concerns, it was even rather impartial. Sure he mentions the similarity in hype to the psp, the similarities in price etc. Also raised was the fact that the 3DS itself is a much better designed unit and so it is unlikely to have some of the same pratfalls as the PSP. Not the least of which being the insane load times. Even the battery life will undoubtedly for more conservative players last a good 6 hours. The psp peaked at a little over 3 hours of life on the lowest brightness level with wifi off , that UMD drive just ate up battery life. I again bring up the battery life of an iphone or an ipod- they last only 2 hours if the screen is on.

I too ; however, worry about the longterm enjoyment of the 3DS once the novelty of 3d loses its appeal and the launch games get dull. 250$ I find is a fair price for what the device offers but then I found the psp was worth that too until about 6 months later when I got bored of waiting through load times , bored of the tiny bit of homebrew junk I tried and well, back to the regular DS I went.

Any bad thoughts I have are kind of put to rest just because this is nintendo we're talking about, and post-ds post wii nintendo. They have more money to burn and even in 2d mode this thing creates some very nice stuff, sony has basically said psp-2 won't have a 3d screen so what can it offer really? Better graphics ? at what cost ? a 30 minute battery?

For a pure handheld gaming system I think there'll be no better option for at least 2 years.

I should really add though.. kohlers point about ipod/phone/pad games eating up time ? for me its the truth . It takes all of 10 seconds to turn on my ipod , load up a game and play for 2 minutes and then turn it off again. Very definition of easy play.

 

[dream]

Holy shit, it's Gahiggidy!

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Holy shit, it's Gahiggidy!

I thought the same thing. I wonder if he's out of retirement.

GAHIGGIDY FOR MOD

Spoiler

We get to vote on these things, right?

 

[outunderthestars]

A) Its absolute totals still count as "hotcakes" under any reasonable measure.

B) Can you demonstratively prove that the iDevices were responsible for this decline and not something more obvious like, say, time?

Well you have the DS dropping in sales faster than any system has in years, including the GBA in the last year before the DS hit shelves, coupled with Apple selling 34 million iOS devices in the last quarter alone. ipod touch and iphone sales were both up dramatically over the same quarter last year.


One loses 40% in 2010 while there other sells close to 90 million in the same year.

You can't tell me that some of that loss in sales wasn't going directly to Apple.

 

[jman2050]

You can't tell me that some of that loss in sales wasn't going directly to Apple.

I absolutely can. Unless either of us can prove the other wrong then it's all baseless conjecture.

 

[antonz]

Well you have the DS dropping in sales faster than any system has in years, including the GBA in the last year before the DS hit shelves, coupled with Apple selling 34 million iOS devices in the last quarter alone. ipod touch and iphone sales were both up dramatically over the same quarter last year.


One loses 40% in 2010 while there other sells close to 90 million in the same year.

You can't tell me that some of that loss in sales wasn't going directly to Apple.

The GBA was pretty dead in all regions but North America when the DS came out. Americans just could not get enough of the GBA. Years after the DS came out the damn thing was outselling new consoles

 

[outunderthestars]

This information tells us that the DS is having a normal console life cycle.

The GBA only lost 10% of its annual sales from the year before during its last year on the shelves before the DS came out. 40% isn't normal end of product cycles numbers, it's freefall.

 

[OniShiro]

Very good article, I agree with most points except the digital downloads part, I think digital downloads only apply to grown ups, I don't think many parents want their 12 year olds buying games whenever they want and billing them to the parent credit card, the digital downloads point would only be applicable if the 3DS target demographic was adults, but I think the machine is targetted toward younger people.

 

[outunderthestars]

Very good article, I agree with most points except the digital downloads part, I think digital downloads only apply to grown ups, I don't think many parents want their 12 year olds buying games whenever they want and billing them to the parent credit card, the digital downloads point would only be applicable if the 3DS target demographic was adults, but I think the machine is targetted toward younger people.

prepaid cards sell really well for that very reason.

Both Reggie and Iwata seem to think that they are competing against Apple:

Reggie: "“Do I think that in the near term they can hurt us more than Microsoft?” “Absolutely.”"

Iwata referred to Apple as "the enemy of the future"

 

[Quadrangulum]

Nintendo just needs to stick with its strengths. I think the problems touched on in the article are a symptom of its very unique, narrowly focused institutional identity. I don't think Nintendo can get over its lack of expertise and experience without great expenditure but so long as it doesn't make app stores and connectivity the highlight of its products or try to compete on the turf of its bigger and more network savvy competitors, Nintendo can prosper regardless.

Their challenge is finding and introducing unorthodox value propositions with every new product cycle. I'm skeptical about the long run sustainability of this approach but they've done it for a long time now and even during its false steps, Nintendo has its cash reservoir which can probably sustain them for several failed generations during which they would still be making great profits. Moreover, Nintendo's 1st party software are essentially industry mainstays so they have that to lean on as well. At the very worst, Nintendo's future is uncertain. I can't think of any convincing doomsayer argument.

 

[Kodiak]

Anecdotally speaking, I was telling my friends about the 3DS last night who grew up as avid fans of Zelda and nintendo gamesl. I told them about how it had a 3D screen that didn't need glasses and that they were remaking OOT in 3D and they were instantly Hyped for the system.

Really though, all these guys do is play wow and dota, and a few apps on their iPhone 4's when they are in a situation where they need to kill a few minutes, so I don't see them jumping on a single purpose device like the 3DS. I could probably hype them in to buying it, and they would probably buy OOT and dink around, but honestly they would probably just let it collect dust after that because of the WoW/iPhone combo.

As for my co-workers they will absolutely never touch this device with the exception of one of my fellow game designers. Pretty much everyone else here either plays starcraft, has an iPhone 4, or doesn't engage in handheld gaming, period.

Even with all that, I think its unfair to write off the 3DS in any way - I have completely fallen in love with Nintendo again over the past year and the quality of experiences I've had on their two systems recently have completely blown away anything I've experienced on an i device.

The truth of the matter is that there are just a shit ton of people these days, and there is room for a variety of experiences to thrive. Just because it doesn't work for you or the people you are surrounded by doesn't mean it won't do gang busters with families and teens and Nintendo nerds the world over.

 

[slit]

The GBA only lost 10% of its annual sales from the year before during its last year on the shelves before the DS came out. 40% isn't normal end of product cycles numbers, it's freefall.

The GBA was also only 3 1/2 years into it's cycle when Nintendo pulled the plug early because of the PSP.

 

[Kuran]

Anecdotally speaking, I was telling my friends about the 3DS last night who grew up as avid fans of Zelda and nintendo gamesl. I told them about how it had a 3D screen that didn't need glasses and that they were remaking OOT in 3D and they were instantly Hyped for the system.

Really though, all these guys do is play wow and dota, and a few apps on their iPhone 4's when they are in a situation where they need to kill a few minutes, so I don't see them jumping on a single purpose device like the 3DS. I could probably hype them in to buying it, and they would probably buy OOT and dink around, but honestly they would probably just let it collect dust after that because of the WoW/iPhone combo.

As for my co-workers they will absolutely never touch this device with the exception of one of my fellow game designers. Pretty much everyone else here either plays starcraft, has an iPhone 4, or doesn't engage in handheld gaming, period.

Even with all that, I think its unfair to write off the 3DS in any way - I have completely fallen in love with Nintendo again over the past year and the quality of experiences I've had on their two systems recently have completely blown away anything I've experienced on an i device.

Who cares, Nintendo needs to attract people who are passionate about gaming. Real gamers who enjoy gameplay over gimmick, and who game for more than just passing time or satiating their OCD. This is the only market that will still support them if the casual market lets them down, or the economy is in bad shape.

 

[outunderthestars]

The GBA was also only 3 1/2 years into it's cycle when Nintendo pulled the plug early because of the PSP.

That is a very good point.

 

[Kodiak]

Who cares, Nintendo needs to attract people who are passionate about gaming. Real gamers who enjoy gameplay over gimmick, and who game for more than just passing time or satiating their OCD. This is the only market that will still support them if the casual market lets them down, or the economy is in bad shape.

I think the point some people are trying to make is that iPads and iPods and iPhones have plenty of those passionate people completely content and unwilling to buy another piece of hardware just to play games.

 

[farnham]

as a nintendo apologist that totally loved the direction nintendo went with wii and ds inane to agree with kohler

3ds seems to be a simple evolution of the ds with a simple gimmick attached to it

the current lineup really shows this as there are no games that couldn't have been done on a psp


so will it be successful? probably
will I get it day one ? no because you can play every game that is currently announced on a different platform in some shape or form

 

[SlipperySlope]

On the contrary, I'd say that smartphones are the step backwards. What, with the dollar games, no buttons, 5 minute playtimes (mostly)?

Smartphone games remind me of the Atari circa 1983 and early arcade games. Something from the past. I just won't spend money to play a game that lasts 5 minutes.

 

[jman2050]

I think the point some people are trying to make is that iPads and iPods and iPhones have plenty of those passionate people completely content and unwilling to buy another piece of hardware just to play games.

There will be more than enough people left over to buy a gazillion 3DSes even taking those into account.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

will I get it day one ? no because you can play every game that is currently announced on a different platform in some shape or form

Being crazy is endearing, farnham. Being a liar just demeans you.

 

[jman2050]

Being crazy is endearing, farnham. Being a liar just demeans you.

It's as if he's systematically trying to be as wrong as possible about Nintendo for some reason nowadays.