But this is also tax return season and people love to part with their money.
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Nintendo posts $160M net income, cuts 3DS/Wii U/NDS/Wii forecasts
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
But this is also tax return season and people love to part with their money.
metalslimer
Member
Or Nintendo 2008
Nintendo is making a profit? They sold 3 million Wii Us? These are 2 surprises I think many didn't see coming. The 3DS should be able to hit its projections. I think next fiscal year will be the best so far for the 3DS due to Pokemon.
NSMBU's attach rate is amazing.
Aren't these numbers of systems sold?
NSMBU's attach rate is amazing.
Aren't these numbers of systems sold?
So what is the attach rate then?
See I think the 3DS ought to be profitable enough to keep Nintendo in the black during the Wii transition, but it's clearly not. That's something we know. Whether it's mostly due to the 3DS not being particularly profitable, or due to the Wii U's worse than expected launch, we can only speculate.
The revised forecasts make me think it's a little bit of both.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
zomgbbqftw
Banned
~1.8
michaeltraps
Member
I get what you're saying. I guess my point more focuses on the "legs" of the system - the selling potential throughout its life span. Those are the consumers that turn a 5 million selling console into a 20-50 million selling console. (Though this is nothing new when it comes to console sales)
I still think that both the Orbis and Durango will have the early adopters just like the Wii U, but less than either the 360 or PS3 saw in its initial months (again, just like Wii U compared to Wii). Public perception is drastically different than the last console cycle - more people will wait for a lower price point than in prior generations. This will force Nintendo/Sony/MS to drop their prices earlier than they have in the past in order to grab the market share before a competitor does. Basically, what happened with the 3DS. No one had ever seen a console price drop that quickly (and drastically) to fairly positive results.
I don't understand the logic of people thinking that the next-gen systems will sell like hotcakes out of the gate. That's never really the case and I don't see how the Wii U is any different. Sure, Nintendo has a lot to prove, especially this year, but they've shown that they're not only listening to their audience (I think the Nintendo Directs are a pretty bold attempt at transparency with the audience) but also have the ability to turn a lackluster console launch around with software to back it up (Nintendo 3DS).
And don't get me started on the people that want Nintendo to go 3rd party. What is wrong with you!?
walking fiend
Member
They have shipped so much Wii Us, especially software, that by the end of march they may not even sell what they have shipped till 'now'
Shipped; take Japan for example, the ltd there is ~750l, but they have shipped nearly 900k, and it's selling like 15k per week there and is dropping, so at this rate by march it may not even sell this much.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
PS1 and PS2/PSP weren't profitable enough to keep SCE in the black during their transitions either. Same for Xbox, why are we holding Nintendo to a different standard?
And wait, I thought we were only looking at the overall profitability of Nintendo earlier, irrespective of all else? I mean, there was no "currency fluctuations" bullet point? They hit a profit this quarter, looks to me like Step 5? Or are we moving the goalposts back to where they started now?
Always-honest
Banned
I'd say it's the opposite. E3 is essential to Nintendo right now. They made a desperate attempt to grab the fans attention at the the Nintendo-fan-wet-dream-Direct-broadcast but now they actually have to get shit done and show stuff at E3 that will make people BUY a Wii-U.
I wouldn't mind if E3 WAS dead and companies did everything Nintendo-direct style.
Would be smarter too.
edit: what a ridiculous condescending way to reply by the way....
This really puts things into perspective. People continually misremember how launches go
Good game that.
Well, I believe they made money on BOTH with the Wii because of it's low BOM cost.
They are not making a profit. They lowered forecasts of Wii U hardware, Wii U software, 3DS hardware, 3DS software, and changed their forecast from a profit to a loss. Someone ought to add the Reuters news story to the first post to add some context to the numbers:
Nintendo Co Ltd, the world's leading gaming company by machines sold, said it will post an operating loss for a second straight year as the sales of its Wii U, successor to the 100-million selling Wii, faltered.
The company caught investors off guard by predicting a loss of $220 million in the year to March 31, reversing a profit forecast for the same amount, putting its new guidance well short of a consensus estimate of 12.1 billion yen ($133.48 million) profit from 19 analysts.
The grim outlook came even as a weaker yen provides a boost for a company that sells almost three quarters of its products outside Japan.
"It was a somewhat negative surprise," said Yasuo Sakuma, portfolio manager at Bayview Asset Management.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
There is?
Foreign exchange gains - 22,225
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130130e.pdf - Table 5 under "non-operating income"
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Retail only, which isn't what the "shipped" figures represent.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I was talking about our discussion in the previous thread, concerning Wii U potentially following the 5 Steps of 3DS. Though perhaps we shoild take this there if we're going to continue...
edit: Sorry, I thought you were jcm. It's in reference to a previous conversation we were having.
bigtroyjon
Member
Stock opened down 5%
Edit-and moving down fast, already at -6.5%. Hitting a new 52 week low isn't out of the realm of possibility at this point.
Edit-and moving down fast, already at -6.5%. Hitting a new 52 week low isn't out of the realm of possibility at this point.
FonkyByNature
Member
Those numbers look good to me.
But, i want new Wii U games, can't wait for the end of the year when some heavy hitters come.
But, i want new Wii U games, can't wait for the end of the year when some heavy hitters come.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Yes, which points to a gross overshipment.
Doesn't include bundled software in that 1.8 either, shipped would.
Never actually thought of digital sales being included. I guess they have to though.
walking fiend
Member
I think Wii U situation will not become fully clear until both PS4/Nextbox are revealed AND priced.
If they are priced comparable to Wii U, then it will be in a really tough situation.
If the price gap is considerable, like $100 or something, then whether Wii U sells or not is depended on its software.
---
But considering the situation with 3DS, and how deep they have managed to cut the price recently (I think 3DS was on sale here for even down to $99), there may be a chance that by the end of year they have become able to considerably reduce the production cost of the Gamepad.
If they are priced comparable to Wii U, then it will be in a really tough situation.
If the price gap is considerable, like $100 or something, then whether Wii U sells or not is depended on its software.
---
But considering the situation with 3DS, and how deep they have managed to cut the price recently (I think 3DS was on sale here for even down to $99), there may be a chance that by the end of year they have become able to considerably reduce the production cost of the Gamepad.
AranhaHunter
Banned
A lot of stocks are down today, but Nintendo is down by a lot:
NTDOY 12.39 -0.81 (-6.14%) 14.96B
NTDOY 12.39 -0.81 (-6.14%) 14.96B
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It also points to digital sales and bundled software. The real attach rate is higher than 1.8.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Oh dear, we're already at the "digital sales" argument. It didn't fly for Vita and it won't for Wii U either.
metalslimer
Member
But Nintendo included digital sales in that 24 million projection did they not?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It may add a small amount, but it's still included in the shipment figures. As is bundled software, which no sales trackers outside Japan account for. You're comparing apples and oranges, you of all people should really know better.
In the past, Nintendo has managed to transition without losing money. Now, they are apparently unable to do so. That's the standard I'm holding them to. If they are looking at a Sony-style PS3 transition then they're in terrible shape. I don;t think things are that grim though.
I'm not moving anything. I'm looking at the actual numbers Nintendo releases. You think the 3DS somehow caused the yen to fall, thus making Nintendo's overseas currency holdings' yen value appreciate? Fine, you can think that. Me, I'll look at how Nintendo is doing in the actual video game business, where they are still losing money, at a time they expected to be profitable.
Narpas Sword0
Member
The difference is that Nintendo has hundreds of thousands of Wii Us stacked up on shelves waiting for an end user to want one, whereas the PS3, and especially Wii and 360, had 0 units sitting on store shelves. These are shipment numbers. Retailers in the West are not going to order any Wii Us this quarter when 300,00+ are sitting in their warehouses and on their shelves already.
As for forecasts, these are not just fun numbers that Nintendo throws out there to beat their chests. No company wants to miss a forecast, or be forced to reduce a forecast. It looks ugly to shareholders. Forecasts are by their nature conservative estimates. Nintendo is not dropping its forecast because a factory caught fire or because they can't get enough components to meet demand, they are dropping it because the console is not selling and they project a 30% reduction in orders from retailers for this fiscal year. This is horrific.
We need a sequel
metalslimer
Member
I don't know what January 2007 you came from but there were PS3's everywhere. Sure the 360 was hard to find but the PS3 sales were awful and they completely overshipped.
Narpas Sword0
Member
I didn't say January. We are discussing the three launch months. PS3 was unavailable for one of those months and not totally in stock for the second of those months. Wii U has been completely available for all three of those months.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Their allowance for digital shipments is not very large. I'll get someone from the bank to ask what the proportion is.
There is a massive overshipment for both games and hardware.
And what? It's not like it makes much difference.
Cod is down like 1% in units and up in revenue relative to last year, IIRC.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
In the past, Nintendo hasn't generally gone for a loss taking hardware design. That's fundamentally changed with Wii U, it's following the Sony/MS model.
I generally expect Wii U to more resemble PS2 than PS3. I doubt Nintendo could really survive a PS3 level financial disaster.
I was looking at if Wii U could follow 3DS' 5 Steps to success and profitability. You somehow turned that into Nintendo managing overall profitability or not. But again, we can take it to that thread if you want to keep going, let's leave this thread for Nintendo's results.
Narpas Sword0
Member
The Wii U is very much in the vein of Nintendo's GBA/DS/Wii model. It is hardware benchmarked against the current gen.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Be a dear and ask about bundled software too.
But it does still make a difference.
At least, it shouldn't be as overshipped as 3DS was (hardware wise)
Total 3DS shipment: 3.61
Japan 3DS shipment: 1.06
Americas 3DS shipment: 1.32
Others 3DS shipment: 1.23
Japan 3DS sales (from February, 26th to March, 27th): 0.8
US 3DS sales (from March, 27th to April, 2nd): 0.4
Other 3DS sales (from March, 25th to March, 27th): 0.33
...And 3DS obtained to ship other 700k in Q2 despite the hyper massive overshipment.
Total 3DS shipment: 3.61
Japan 3DS shipment: 1.06
Americas 3DS shipment: 1.32
Others 3DS shipment: 1.23
Japan 3DS sales (from February, 26th to March, 27th): 0.8
US 3DS sales (from March, 27th to April, 2nd): 0.4
Other 3DS sales (from March, 25th to March, 27th): 0.33
...And 3DS obtained to ship other 700k in Q2 despite the hyper massive overshipment.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Not financially. GBA/DS/Wii were designed to be profit bearing day one, Wii U was not.
The only other Nintendo hardware that ever took a day one loss was Gamecube, and there it was relatively minor (around $20 iirc).
KillerMan91
Member
It really doesn't. PS3 costed $599 and had equally horrible launch line up to WiiU. Not to mention that for PS3 those shipments are for US and Japan only until march (It launched later in EU). Then we have X360 that was successor to original Xbox (that sold 24 million..) and was in short supply for long time. Then we have original Wii and against it WiiU is failing miserably despite the Wii being in short supply for a long time. It really isn't achievement to barely match PS3 or X360 during first two quarters when you consider these factors.
metalslimer
Member
I wonder if Nintendo stock could actually fall below where there were during the Gamecube days. I know with inflation they are already below it.
AranhaHunter
Banned
What are these 5 steps you keep talking about?
Of course, it is probably minuscule for WiiU at this point though. I think Vita DD sales numbers are relatively better and probably even 3DS' numbers too. PS3 and 360 DD sales are probably pretty big at this point.