TacticalFox88 said:
Are you kidding me? Imagine if say a KGB agent was found during 9/11. The fact that the rest were Middle Eastern would've IMMEDIATELY been swept under the rug.
Afghanistan and Iraq are considerably "softer" targets than Russia, and rewards for invasion are higher (especially in the latter). If a KGB agent was caught red-handed as you suggest, I don't think it likely at all that the US would leap so eagerly into war as it did against the Middle East. We're quite a ways removed from the tension of the Cold War as well.
To believe that the controversy and public support reaped after 9/11 would be as effective for a war with Russia is ridiculous. Selling a war against an immeasurably weaker opponent with an essentially alien culture is one thing, selling a war against one of the oldest and most pivotal players in world politics is another entirely. The UN would be against it, the world would be against it, and the US would essentially stand alone to pursue vengeance that would benefit it in uncertain terms from the beginning.
speedpop said:
Costly wars have been started in the past for more ridiculous reasons.
And yet things like the assassinations of Archdukes are never the fundamental reason for escalations, they serve as the spark. The entanglement of regional and national interests, and the escalation derived from such is what ultimately results in war (the conflicting interests in the Balkans was primarily responsible in the example of WWI).
Writing off minor losses in the favour of peace (or "tit for two tats") is far more likely in this hypothetical situation than the US beating the war drum and losing far more as a result. The national self-interest is
inseparable from possible reaction, it isn't simply a policy of an eye for an eye. At some point someone (usually) stops putting out eyes because they fully know what escalation will reap.
Being that the US ought to be perfectly aware of this, and having ample experience with this in the past century, and that it would entirely go against their self-interest to war with Russia (especially in the light of overextended military forces and massive war debt), I think that outcome unlikely. They'd rally all diplomatic efforts against Russia and isolate it, they might even extract a small revenge or two, but they wouldn't abandon all sense and just go in swinging.