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[Roche]

Once again another variation of "Kim Jong Il is ultra-crazy and since he's dying soon he might do anything".

There's no reason to presume he's crazy... and there's no reason to presume he has no care for the world he leaves his sons, political party, and even Korea in general.

Based on his actions there's no reason not to presume he's crazy. I'm just saying it's a possible scenario, though I would doubt NK has the technology to pull it off, they could make an attempt.

I apologize if I'm repeating a beaten to death argument, I've only popped into the thread a few times and was posting my initial opinion on the situation.

 

[BocoDragon]

Based on his actions there's no reason not to presume he's crazy. I'm just saying it's a possible scenario, though I would doubt NK has the technology to pull it off, they could make an attempt.

NK's actions may seem crazy to us because they seem random and self-destructive from our viewpoint.

But their actions are rational if you were in their position. Their economy is garbage, so their whole political legitimacy rests on being a "military first" state, and as such their only reason for existance is to rattle their saber here and there. In a "military first" state, a warning attack like Yeonpyong really is a "rational" way to usher in a new leader like Kim's son (you can't be the leader of a military state unless you've actually lead your forces to deal some damage somewhere).

IMO this has nothing to do with some crazy rogue leader wildly attacking for fun. It's a rational action given a (really unfortunate) 'military first' government structure.

The structure of the state is a little crazy, sure... but it's just what happens when you're beholden to communism and the whole communist world crumbles around you. You can't just back down... the party likes their position of power. So they stick to other forms of holding their power together like playing "military defender" in a world that they portray as plotting against them.

I apologize if I'm repeating a beaten to death argument, I've only popped into the thread a few times and was posting my initial opinion on the situation.

Fair enough. It's not like you're the only person to view things like that, which is why I responded to you as if I've heard that before.

 

[TacticalFox88]

People, NK may be made up of a bunch of genocidal Psychopaths, but they aren't suicidal.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

People, NK may be made up of a bunch of genocidal Psychopaths, but they aren't suicidal.

Castro wasn't suicidal either. But men will die for an idea. Ask Castro, who begged Kruchev to launch the nukes that were on his island at US targets. Knowing his country would be annihilated.

 

[BocoDragon]

Castro wasn't suicidal either. But men will die for an idea. Ask Castro, who begged Kruchev to launch the nukes that were on his island at US targets. Knowing his country would be annihilated.

It's a good point.. Although Kim the eldest has few "ideas" to die for. I think he's mainly devoted to the maintainance of the good life for his friends and family

his father Il Sung might have believed in communist ideals... Enh, but even he was just a puppet installed on the throne. He was mostly an opportunist taking advantage of the power given to him. It's all about the good life, IMO. Wouldnt you want to preserve the endless supply of girls and cogniac?

 

[Roche]

NK's actions may seem crazy to us because they seem random and self-destructive from our viewpoint.

I see what you were saying and given the wider picture of communism crumbling and such it puts things into perspective, I was looking at this as a random act of violence soon after successfully conducting nuclear testing. Given the position of the North Korean government I can see them wanting to flex their military muscles. The situation as far as I can see though is still quite volatile depending on how South Korea and the US reacts there could be a large death toll on civilians and soldiers.

I'm very interested in how this turns out, South Korea appears to be very angry about this with talks of retaliation things could escalate further, I would hope not and given North Korea's position I doubt they'd make things worse but it is a very unpredictable place so who knows what could happen.

 

[Slavik81]

They won't. And the US would never nuke another country also. It would fuck things up beyond repair and they all know it.

The US never would nuke North Korea, because they don't need to use a nuke to win. And, in fact, using one would probably be counter-productive. The nukes were used in Japan because they carried a useful message with them. There was little tactical value to what they destroyed. Under these circumstances, a nuke would carry a very different message, and it probably would not be helpful.

 

[BocoDragon]

I see what you were saying and given the wider picture of communism crumbling and such it puts things into perspective, I was looking at this as a random act of violence soon after successfully conducting nuclear testing. Given the position of the North Korean government I can see them wanting to flex their military muscles. The situation as far as I can see though is still quite volatile depending on how South Korea and the US reacts there could be a large death toll on civilians and soldiers.

I'm very interested in how this turns out, South Korea appears to be very angry about this with talks of retaliation things could escalate further, I would hope not and given North Korea's position I doubt they'd make things worse but it is a very unpredictable place so who knows what could happen.

Yeah I mean whether its crazy or rational from NK's position doesn't matter that much.... it could still escalate into a worse conflict.

I kind of hope SK turns the other cheek. Yeah it makes them look weak and yeah it's dreadfully unfair... but I don't want a war. I have many friends there

 

[Ether_Snake]

North Korea threatening anyone with a nuke changes every dynamic possible. No one will help them if they do. China will not be seen benefitting a rogue state threatening to use nuclear weapons. Russia won't either. An invasion by someone will be imminent if they do. Probably the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

China would tell the US not to provoke NK and cancel their exercise.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Kim's recent visit to China was about this: China giving him their blessing and vowing to prevent the US from conducting exercises in the region. China is probably pulling the strings in what is happening right now, and giving the NK leadership something in return. They want the US to GTFO and not carry any joint exercises with SK.

In a statement from its Foreign Ministry, China warned against “any military acts in our exclusive economic zone without permission,” the state-run Xinhua news agency reported Friday. But virtually all the waters to the west of the Korean Peninsula, where the United States said the exercises would take place, lie within that zone, and American naval traffic is far from uncommon there.

Adding yet more tension to the situation, the North’s state-run media also warned that the maneuvers could push the Korean Peninsula closer to “the brink of war.”

The West has hoped that China would use its leverage as the North’s traditional ally to press it to refrain from further attacks, but the Chinese statement on Friday failed even to criticize the North for its shelling on Tuesday of a garrison island that is also home to about 1,350 civilians, mainly fishermen. The attack killed four people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/27/world/asia/27korea.html

Would love some Wiki leaks on this!

 

[Crisis]

China would tell the US not to provoke NK and cancel their exercise.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Kim's recent visit to China was about this: China giving him their blessing and vowing to prevent the US from conducting exercises in the region. China is probably pulling the strings in what is happening right now, and giving the NK leadership something in return. They want the US to GTFO and not carry any joint exercises with SK.

Jong-Il's recent visit was to formally introduce his son as his successor to Chinese leadership, given that China is North Korea's biggest ally. And given that the US' presence in the region is neither unprecedented or unwarranted there is no way in a blue hell that China told North Korea that they would prevent the Hoguk exercises because they have no method to achieve such a goal. China isn't "pulling strings" in this because if they were then they would prevent North Korea from doing stupid shit like shelling a civilian island.

If you think China would stand with North Korea if North Korea threatened anybody with a nuclear weapon, you are wrong. China is doing everything it can to present itself as a responsible member of the international community and that would undo decades of their work. China's support of North Korea even now is somewhat surprising but it's likely just an on-paper display of solidarity with North Korea. I imagine that behind the scenes, China is pressuring North Korea to knock that shit off as well as to return to the 6-party talks with the other nations. Given that North Korea is starving it would appear that North Korea can no longer count on China to back it up with everything.

 

[Ether_Snake]

We'll see about that in the coming days.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

China is doing everything it can to present itself as a responsible member of the international community

This, I would say, is the total opposite of how they've been acting. Their economy is going like gangbusters and it's gone right to their government's head. They've basically spent the last year giving the finger to the international community. They're sending the message that they're a force to be reckoned with, but they're not trustworthy.

Jailing Nobel Peace Prize winners & putting their wives under house arrest, being hyper aggressive towards Japan and other South East Asian countries over territorial claims, arresting foreign civilians and threatening to withhold vital material trade, hacking Google & Tibetan peace group servers, being threatening towards India...

And now posturing against the US while backing up one of the most evil regimes on Earth. And all that stuff's just this year. The last ASEAN meeting in September was basically everyone going "how do we stop China from screwing us over?"

I don't know that China would go to war over the North Korean thing, but they're in a position to hold a number of countries economically hostage, like they did with Japan over the Senkaku Island dispute 2 months ago. They'd choke others off before they had to fire a shot.

 

[nyong]

IMO this has nothing to do with some crazy rogue leader wildly attacking for fun. It's a rational action given a (really unfortunate) 'military first' government structure.

This argument might hold water if it wasn't for the Dear Leaders other insanities, like kidnapping his favorite film-makers and forcing them to make him a movie. The guy is a whack-job. I don't think that launching 100 mortars into a dense population center in an attempt to inflict mass civilian casualties is considered "saber-rattling" either.

 

[delirium]

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea accused South Korea on Saturday of using civilians as human shields around military bases on an island that the North hit with an artillery attack last week. The accusation is apparently an effort to redirect South Korean outrage over the barrage, which killed two civilian construction workers and two marines.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/28/world/asia/28korea.html?_r=1

Hahaha.

 

[gutter_trash]

looks like NK is running out of supplies and food and pulling an attention tantrum.

best ignore them, they will tire themselves out

 

[nyong]

looks like NK is running out of supplies and food and pulling an attention tantrum.

best ignore them, they will tire themselves out

How does firing 100 mortars at a civilian population count as "pulling an attention tantrum?" You do realize that there are real people out there who lost loved ones who might not appreciate having this 'incident' reduced to attention-whoring?

 

[Warm Machine]

Is North Korea starving now? Thats been the line for the last 6 years or so but I don't see how the weather for growing food has been bad for 6 solid years.

 

[DOBERMAN INC]

Is North Korea starving now? Thats been the line for the last 6 years or so but I don't see how the weather for growing food has been bad for 6 solid years.

Remember this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine

It will happen again unless they start to get their act together.

 

[mollipen]

Is North Korea starving now? Thats been the line for the last 6 years or so but I don't see how the weather for growing food has been bad for 6 solid years.

Their food-producing efforts have been doing gangbusters, so long as the kind of food you're interested is in "tree bark" or "dirt".

 

[Crisis]

Is North Korea starving now? Thats been the line for the last 6 years or so but I don't see how the weather for growing food has been bad for 6 solid years.

It's gotten so bad that there's capitalist-style markets in North Korea that exist only to sell food so at least some of the population could get food. Doesn't seem like a big deal to us, but before their food situation, that was literally unthinkable.

 

[m3k]

Is North Korea starving now? Thats been the line for the last 6 years or so but I don't see how the weather for growing food has been bad for 6 solid years.

smh

 

[Pristine_Condition]

This, I would say, is the total opposite of how they've been acting. Their economy is going like gangbusters and it's gone right to their government's head. They've basically spent the last year giving the finger to the international community. They're sending the message that they're a force to be reckoned with, but they're not trustworthy.

Jailing Nobel Peace Prize winners & putting their wives under house arrest, being hyper aggressive towards Japan and other South East Asian countries over territorial claims, arresting foreign civilians and threatening to withhold vital material trade, hacking Google & Tibetan peace group servers, being threatening towards India...

And now posturing against the US while backing up one of the most evil regimes on Earth. And all that stuff's just this year. The last ASEAN meeting in September was basically everyone going "how do we stop China from screwing us over?"

I don't know that China would go to war over the North Korean thing, but they're in a position to hold a number of countries economically hostage, like they did with Japan over the Senkaku Island dispute 2 months ago. They'd choke others off before they had to fire a shot.

Yeah, it's not been a banner year for China. Not by a long shot.

 

[fastford58]

Exercises have officially begun.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/101127/n_top_news/cnews_us_korea_north1

 

[Sealda]

Based on his actions there's no reason not to presume he's crazy. I'm just saying it's a possible scenario, though I would doubt NK has the technology to pull it off, they could make an attempt.

I apologize if I'm repeating a beaten to death argument, I've only popped into the thread a few times and was posting my initial opinion on the situation.

No one who met him have said that he is crazy, they have the opposite view of him. Is North Korea a crazy country yes, are Kim Jong Il crazy? No, definitely not.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Exercises have officially begun.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/101127/n_top_news/cnews_us_korea_north1

CNN reports the same so lets see how this goes once they leave the area

 

[Akim]

North Korea deploys surface-to-air missiles on its coast as U.S. and South Korea prep for navy drills, Yonhap reports.

 

[legend166]

No one who met him have said that he is crazy, they have the opposite view of him. Is North Korea a crazy country yes, are Kim Jong Il crazy? No, definitely not.

Depends what you mean by crazy.

There's no doubt he's a sociopath with a very big God-complex. On that level, I don't think the step to being suicidal and taking everyone down with him is that far.

 

[ezrarh]

North Korea deploys surface-to-air missiles on its coast as U.S. and South Korea prep for navy drills, Yonhap reports.

I really hope this is a lot of dick waving that won't escalate to anything more.

 

[Technosteve]

NK is gunna play a real life game of DEFCON eh, well i play to win sucka

 

[BocoDragon]

Depends what you mean by crazy.

There's no doubt he's a sociopath with a very big God-complex. On that level, I don't think the step to being suicidal and taking everyone down with him is that far.

I suspect he doesn't believe his own propaganda. It's not as if his personality cult was a result of his own personal whims.. It was an attempt to copy the similar personality cults of Stalin and Mao. That's just what mid-20th century totalitarian states do to secure their power.

Look at the face of the successor Kim Jong Un.. Does that look like the face of a kid who's raised to believe he is a god? Looks to me more like he understands that it's all a big show.

 

[dogmaan]

(URGNET) Emergency evacuation order issued for civilians on Yeonpyeong Island, official says

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/11/28/0200000000AEN20101128001300315.HTML


shit, i hope that is just a prudent precaution

 

[Rektash]

Explosion sounds of artillery fire heard on Yeonpyeong Island, official says - Yonhap.

 

[Phoenix]

Taking a few more steps closer to the brink...

At some point if this keeps up the escalation will get to the point where nobody will feel compelled to back down. All its going to take is for some fool to paint an F-18 and for some fool on the other side to take action in response.

It would be well for your government to consider that having your ships and ours, your aircraft and ours, in such proximity... is inherently DANGEROUS. Wars have begun that way, Mr. Ambassador.

 

[Fina1e]

god fucking dammit

 

[geebee]

This shit is not looking good...

 

[BocoDragon]

Didn't really need this worry right now. My best friend is in a Seoul hospital right now while her mother is being treated for cancer

 

[Ether_Snake]

They will do everything they can for the joint exercises to be called off. So this is just a start. Nuclear threat will come eventually, even if not worded with the word "nuclear".

NK already said they would do a second or third round of artillery if the exercise was not called off, so of course they will do it.

 

[vic2020]

History making shit going down now?

 

[Dreams-Visions]

hmmmmm.

 

[darksunpr]

fuck it would suck ass to wake up to another war

 

[Roche]

(URGNET) Emergency evacuation order issued for civilians on Yeonpyeong Island, official says

Well that's not a good sign, I hope it's not signaling bad times to come. This situation is just getting worse and worse by the day, if this keeps up it could escalate very quickly maybe even into all out war.

 

[CrankyJay]

Well that's not a good sign, I hope it's not signaling bad times to come. This situation is just getting worse and worse by the day, if this keeps up it could escalate very quickly maybe even into all out war.

Eh, something needs to be done with NK.

 

[Roche]

Eh, something needs to be done with NK.

I agree, but I would hope it wouldn't come at the cost of thousands of innocent lives.

 

[JohnTinker]

RT @W7VOA: We've now got reliable info that both surface-to-surface & surface-to-air missiles being readied in N. Korea on the west coast.

RT @W7VOA: AFP photographer on Yeonpyeong says anyone still there ordered to take shelter in bunkers.

RT @W7VOA: Reporter Jason Strother says he is in bunker on Yeonpyeong but no one told why. #Koreas

 

[Rektash]

(URGENT) S. Korea's military spots signs of N. Korean artillery firing: official

- Yonhap again.

 

[geebee]

I agree, but I would hope it wouldn't come at the cost of thousands of innocent lives.

Very true.. a lot of people say similar things about NK, but don't really think of the consequences that might come of it.

 

[Karma Kramer]

Holy shit

 

[Divvy]

Where are you guys getting these feeds from?

 

[Rektash]

Yonhap

 

[Ether_Snake]

http://twitter.com/w7voa

You can also just type Yeonpyeong on google and look at the automatic updates coming in.