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[ultratruman]

Saddam never claimed to have Nukes. Hell the whole reason he got toppled was because the Bush administration sold the idea that he did.

That's not true. Saddam deliberately left open the possibility that Iraq had WMDs, even going so far too deploy fake inflatable plants.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE56113O20090702

I dread in my stomach another escalation like this.

 

[commedieu]

Trump is going to lose his shit.

 

[George Washington]

I can only see one of the following scenarios occurring:

- escalation of the situation until we are forced to take a preemptive strike against them

- coup within the country to avoid a war with the U.S.

- China stepping in to de-escalate the tension and possibly produce a peaceful resolution

Unfortunately I feel as though the first possibility is the most likely given the current admistration and the recent escalation of nuclear threats.

 

[liquidtmd]

Man that original thread and post this stems from was some amazingly funny shit

 

[Iolo]

fwiw NK, in spite of its extreme fuckery, has a near 50 year history of being a rational actor. Concerns that they'd nuke another nation for the lulz seem a bit unjustified, especially when one considers that at that point all restraints would be off and they'd be wiped off the map. Since Kim hasn't shown signs of being downright suicidal, no reason to worry.

This is just their standard posturing.

If the suffering of north koreans is a concern, other actors could always, yknow, drop economic sanctions and stuff.


probably pakistan. They've traded nuclear info before, apparently, so it wouldnt be a massive stretch.

The concern now is not rationality but that the war plans of South Korea, North Korea, and the United States all require each going first to win. US plans call for decapitation and NK plans call for nuclear, chem and bio strikes at the very start of a conflict. Especially NK is in a use 'em or lose 'em situation, if they perceive an existential threat whether real or imagined. Thus any miscalculation risks an all out war, and that risk is growing daily. Combine that with Mr. Bluster in the White House and it's a tinderbox.

 

[Thelonelykoopa]

North Korea been quite talkative recently and with the recent assassination of Kim's step brother by North Korea I wonder what exactly is going on in the ol' DPRK .

 

[capitalCORN]

North Korea been quite talkative recently and with the recent assassination of Kim's step brother by North Korea I wonder what exactly is going on in the ol' DPRK .

China is lighting their feet on fire, and Trump is weaksauce,

 

[SRG01]

The concern now is not rationality but that the war plans of South Korea, North Korea, and the United States all require each going first to win. US plans call for decapitation and NK plans call for nuclear, chem and bio strikes at the very start of a conflict. Especially NK is in a use 'em or lose 'em situation, if they perceive an existential threat whether real or imagined. Thus any miscalculation risks an all out war, and that risk is growing daily. Combine that with Mr. Bluster in the White House and it's a tinderbox.

Add China to this situation too. They're stuck in a tough spot because they can't control NK anymore...

 

[DarthWoo]

I fear what might happen if someone sets up a fake Kim Jong-Un Twitter account and convinces Trump that it's real and says something about an imminent launch.

 

[EGM1966]

When you're using the term Supreme Leader things are fucked up with your country.

 

[Coriolanus]

The concern now is not rationality but that the war plans of South Korea, North Korea, and the United States all require each going first to win. US plans call for decapitation and NK plans call for nuclear, chem and bio strikes at the very start of a conflict. Especially NK is in a use 'em or lose 'em situation, if they perceive an existential threat whether real or imagined. Thus any miscalculation risks an all out war, and that risk is growing daily. Combine that with Mr. Bluster in the White House and it's a tinderbox.

What would NK win from a possible war? Besides the obliteration that even their government no doubt knows would soon follow.

Like, theres no scenario under which NK wins anything. All it could do, at best, is take someone along towards oblivion. This is standard MAD.

 

[andythinkpad]

Fat Kim is going to call pissbaby bluff and do another underground nuke test.

Pissbaby and Rex Exxon won't have anything to answer.

This is going to be more pathetic than Obama's "redline".

 

[MarveI]

 

[VendettaRed07]

North Korea been quite talkative recently and with the recent assassination of Kim's step brother by North Korea I wonder what exactly is going on in the ol' DPRK .

Un is struggling with his legitimacy and making desperate power moves to maintain it

 

[120v]

I don't see how this changes much. With the trump in office we're obviously a few ticks closer to midnight but that's a given

 

[Iolo]

What would NK win from a possible war? Besides the obliteration that even their government no doubt knows would soon follow.

Like, theres no scenario under which NK wins anything. All it could do, at best, is take someone along towards oblivion. This is standard MAD.

It's very simple. NK has looked at Saddam and Gadaffi and concluded the only way to ensure regime survival is the credible threat of nuclear weapons use. If NK concludes the US is about to or has started to invade, it will not sit around and wait to lose. Instead their plan is to hit the US and South Korea and Japan hard enough to make them pause. This may not actually work until they acquire an ICBM capable of hitting the US mainland—but that's their goal.

The point is they won't attack first, but once attacked (or perceived to be) they have no chance for survival without hitting back hard (the regime will be pounded into oblivion either way, and they don't care about their citizens). Thus the risk for miscalculation.

 

[Lo-Volt]

Kim doesn't know how to stop bluffing, just like Saddam.

Kim is not bluffing. Kim and the government are probably thinking that showing a proven nuclear deterrent will make America reconsider before doing something really rash, and are racing against time to get it. They're probably right. If the New York Times' reporting is accurate, they were getting close enough to send shivers down the Obama administration.

 

[Xando]

North Korea been quite talkative recently and with the recent assassination of Kim's step brother by North Korea I wonder what exactly is going on in the ol' DPRK .

They test how far they can go with Trump. I expect Russia to test how far they can go in the next 6-12 months aswell (Probably in ukraine).

The US is foreign policy wise the weakest it has been in the last 70 years

Add China to this situation too. They're stuck in a tough spot because they can't control NK anymore...

Unless it's a nuclear wasteland if any NK conflict ever occurs i expect china to occupy parts of NK to have a buffer against the US and SK

 

[Thelonelykoopa]

Un is struggling with his legitimacy and making desperate power moves to maintain it

Perhaps, I'm actually curious about his health, he is still quite young but he also has quite a poor diet; It isn't hard to believe his health may be failing especially considering I don't have the best confidence at medical care in North Korea. It might explain the more aggressive behavior from North Korea as Kim's aware when he dies he has no male heir to the Kim Dynasty.

 

[Tugatrix]

Cus Baby you're a firework !!!!

(do it kim)

 

[andythinkpad]

It's very simple. NK has looked at Saddam and Gadaffi and concluded the only way to ensure regime survival is the credible threat of nuclear weapons use. If NK concludes the US is about to or has started to invade, it will not sit around and wait to lose. Instead their plan is to hit the US and South Korea and Japan hard enough to make them pause. This may not actually work until they acquire an ICBM capable of hitting the US mainland—but that's their goal.

The point is they won't attack first, but once attacked (or perceived to be) they have no chance for survival without hitting back hard (the regime will be pounded into oblivion either way, and they don't care about their citizens). Thus the risk for miscalculation.

US is not invading anything. Rex Tillerson has already gone to China and spilled out China policy oriented catchphrases after meeting with Xi. In other words, there won't be a unilateral "surgical operation" without China's sanction. And China is not going to sanction it, unless US give China Taiwan.

 

[Regulus Tera]

That's not true. Saddam deliberately left open the possibility that Iraq had WMDs, even going so far too deploy fake inflatable plants.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE56113O20090702

I dread in my stomach another escalation like this.

I stand corrected. Nonetheless in this case we have evidence that the NK regime does possess nuclear capability, which is the biggest differentiator

 

[Minus_Me]

Where the hell are they getting the money to do this shit?

Room 39/Bureau 39

They work on a ton of other schemes including giant bronze statues and exporting their workers outside of the country in places like Russia and Mongolia.

Their ability to acquire foreign currency seems to be on the decline from reports.

 

[Beartruck]

Hey NK, acting crazy only works out when your opponent is reasonable. Threats like this will only embolden Trump's fuckery.

 

[Subpar Spatula]

They have way more to lose if they don't.

Like?

 

[pulsemyne]

Room 39/Bureau 39

They work on a ton of other schemes including giant bronze statues and exporting their workers outside of the country in places like Russia and Mongolia.

Their ability to acquire foreign currency seems to be on the decline from reports.

Kim Jong il started that off. They deal in all manner of criminal activity. Just read "A kim Jong iL production" to learn all about it. What a crazy story that was.

 

[ultratruman]

Kim is not bluffing. Kim and the government are probably thinking that showing a proven nuclear deterrent will make America reconsider before doing something really rash, and are racing against time to get it. They're probably right. If the New York Times' reporting is accurate, they were getting close enough to send shivers down the Obama administration.

Fair enough, and, as Regulus Tera said, the big difference is that NK already have WMDs. By bluffing, I mean their threat of an nuclear capable ICBM test. I still think the jury is out on whether they will do something so pointlessly suicidal.

My guess is Tillerson knew this would be Pyongyang's reaction the warning, but the real audience is Beijing. President Xi could be forced to finally act over this crisis, though I'm beginning to wonder just how much control China really has over the hermit kingdom.

 

[HeySeuss]

I, for one, firmly believe that our #45 wouldn't say or do anything that would instigate a delicate situation any further. I eagerly await his carefully thought out, and well reasoned Twitter response so that he will show how he understands the tact necessary to handle a foreign diplomacy situation.

 

[theignoramus]

Fair enough, and, as Regulus Tera said, the big difference is that NK already have WMDs. By bluffing, I mean their threat of an nuclear capable ICBM test. I still think the jury is out on whether they will do something so pointlessly suicidal.

My guess is Tillerson knew this would be Pyongyang's reaction the warning, but the real audience is Beijing. President Xi could be forced to finally act over this crisis, though I'm beginning to wonder just how much control China really has over the hermit kingdom.

If NK is invaded with troops on the ground, they will attempt a nuclear strike. We dont know how they would respond to an air war, but it's highly likely even a limited strike on their nuclear assets would snowball into a full fledged war.
This isnt Iraq in the 90s, where America could just bomb whatever and call it a day, NK can launch a deadly retaliatory strike even with conventional weapons.

 

[NullPointer]

Well at least we have a steady hand with a long term view in the White House.

Oh... fuck.

 

[ultratruman]

If NK is invaded with troops on the ground, they will attempt a nuclear strike. We dont know how they would respond to an air war, but it's highly likely even a limited strike on their nuclear assets would snowball into a full fledged war.
This isnt Iraq in the 90s, where America could just bomb whatever and call it a day, NK can launch a deadly retaliatory strike even with conventional weapons.

There's still no evidence that NK are capable of putting a nuclear warhead and missile together in a viable way, though SK experts are beginning to believe NK could accomplish this soon. I'd also like to think that the US has every potential launch site in NK mapped out, if there was going to be a preemptive strike.

 

[fade_]

It is only a matter of time before they realize the reason their ICBMs aren't working is that they are calculating the earth to be round instead of flat. Once they realize this and adjust their calculations we'll be in a world of trouble.

 

[Coriolanus]

It's very simple. NK has looked at Saddam and Gadaffi and concluded the only way to ensure regime survival is the credible threat of nuclear weapons use. If NK concludes the US is about to or has started to invade, it will not sit around and wait to lose. Instead their plan is to hit the US and South Korea and Japan hard enough to make them pause. This may not actually work until they acquire an ICBM capable of hitting the US mainland—but that's their goal.

The point is they won't attack first, but once attacked (or perceived to be) they have no chance for survival without hitting back hard (the regime will be pounded into oblivion either way, and they don't care about their citizens). Thus the risk for miscalculation.

i mean, you're describing MAD, which has already been in place for decades because ain't no one wants to see Seoul wiped off the map, and having that one city hostage is all it takes to prevent an invasion. Japan and maybe the US are just gravy.

I just can't see why NK's late behaviour is different from the usual posturing. Any idiot willing to risk Seoul isn't gonna pause solely because Tokyo has been put in play.

There's still no evidence that NK are capable of putting a nuclear warhead and missile together in a viable way, though SK experts are beginning to believe NK could accomplish this soon. I'd also like to think that the US has every potential launch site in NK mapped out, if there was going to be a preemptive strike.

I mean, even if they had... what kinda idiot would risk the lives of ten million people on a preemptive strike for no clear gain? Even the US's generals would balk at the stupidity, one hopes.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

I can't imagine china helping them in a war they start.

I think they believe in the idea that china is protecting them but I just don't see it.

 

[theignoramus]

There's still no evidence that NK are capable of putting a nuclear warhead and missile together in a viable way, though SK experts are beginning to believe NK could accomplish this soon. I'd also like to think that the US has every potential launch site in NK mapped out, if there was going to be a preemptive strike.

They have no way of accounting for every mobile launch platform hidden away in a some mountainside tunnel. And I just read a NYT report that said the evidence points to NK being able to launch a nuclear warhead, and that their program is now focused on increasing the range of their strike capability.

 

[ultratruman]

i mean, you're describing MAD, which has already been in place for decades because ain't no one wants to see Seoul wiped off the map, and having that one city hostage is all it takes to prevent an invasion. Japan and maybe the US are just gravy.

I just can't see why NK's late behaviour is different from the usual posturing. Any idiot willing to risk Seoul isn't gonna pause solely because Tokyo has been put in play.

It's different because they're getting closer to actually having a viable nuclear warhead, and are becoming more aggressive with their tests. Obama had no strategy for NK, besides stymieing their rocket program with cyber infiltration. That worked for a while, but they've advanced regardless, and they're now increasing the arsenal with enough new fissile material for another warhead every six weeks.

In 1994, the last time we approached the brink of war with North Korea, estimates were the cost would be a million casualties (military and civilian) and a trillion dollars. It will also certainly destroy the sacrifice of half a century by the South Korean people to rebuild from the last war.

 

[Abounder]

Why worry about sanctions when you can just sell nukes as a cash crop to enemies of the west? NK is already around the globe dealing and training terrorists, scary shit

I can't imagine china helping them in a war they start.

I think they believe in the idea that china is protecting them but I just don't see it.

They'd be forced to. China doesn't want western allies or millions of refugees near their border, plus there's valuable resources in NK and it would be an opportunity to test their improving military.

 

[Coriolanus]

It's different because they're getting closer to actually having a viable nuclear warhead, and are becoming more aggressive with their tests. Obama had no strategy for NK, besides stymieing their rocket program with cyber infiltration. That worked for a while, but they've advanced regardless, and they're now increasing the arsenal with enough new fissile material for another warhead every six weeks.

In 1994, the last time we approached the brink of war with North Korea, estimates were the cost would be a million casualties (military and civilian) and a trillion dollars. It will also certainly destroy the sacrifice of half a century by the South Korean people to rebuild from the last war.

Hmm, i seem to be missing something. The way i'm reading it is that, by 94 standards, the price was already considered too goddamn high to go to war. Assuming that they perfect the bomb, the price would be even higher, so wouldn't the status quo remain the exact same?

 

[PK Gaming]

Is a nuclear war legitimately possible now...?

EDIT: I know it's unlikely but still. Not a good look

 

[ultratruman]

Hmm, i seem to be missing something. The way i'm reading it is that, by 94 standards, the price was already considered too goddamn high to go to war. Assuming that they perfect the bomb, the price would be even higher, so wouldn't the status quo remain the exact same?

The cost will be considerably more now, in blood and treasure.

The crucial difference is, in 1994 diplomacy was still possible and the Clinton administration did a great job of that. The US-DPRK Agreed Framework stalled NK's production of weapons grade material for 5 years and gave inspectors permanent presence at their primary enrichment facility. Jong-Il even agreed to a missile launch moratorium in 1999.

Then of course, as we all now, Bush 43 came into office and destroyed all diplomatic progress of the previous administration.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

BREAKING: South Korea says North Korea's latest missile test has ended in failure.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/844382693047615492

 

[geomon]

Like?

China and Russia do not want further US presence in Asia, especially China. A unified, US backed Korea would be a hindrance to Chinese military and economic authority in the region and since North Korea also borders Russia, it'd be very easy to see a US backed Korea as a threat to them also.

North Korea acts as a convenient distraction to the US government. If we have to worry about North Korea launching nukes, we're probably not watching China and Russia as closely as we could be.

North Korea also acts as a slave state to both Russia and China. Cheap labor (even cheaper than Chinese factory workers) to use as they see fit, with no regulations or international oversight.

 

[Monocle]

Sanctions are "heinous and inhumane," says country with literal death camps and a leader who amuses himself with unorthodox methods of execution.

 

[Sesha]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/844382693047615492

 

[ultratruman]

China and Russia do not want further US presence in Asia, especially China. A unified, US backed Korea would be a hindrance to Chinese military and economic authority in the region and since North Korea also borders Russia, it'd be very easy to see a US backed Korea as a threat to them also.

North Korea acts as a convenient distraction to the US government. If we have to worry about North Korea launching nukes, we're probably not watching China and Russia as closely as we could be.

North Korea also acts as a slave state to both Russia and China. Cheap labor (even cheaper than Chinese factory workers) to use as they see fit, with no regulations or international oversight.

NK aggressively struck back at China recently, after Beijing denounced their behaviour in the last few months. Obviously in some sense it's in every dictator's interest to have a more unstable world, but I have to wonder how much help China would really give Kim if he starts to seriously threaten to plunge the peninsula into war again.

 

[Seductivpancakes]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/844382693047615492

A for effort sport.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

More info on NK's programs http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1349813

 

[Polari]

Is a nuclear war legitimately possible now...?

EDIT: I know it's unlikely but still. Not a good look

I don't think so. The North Korean regime knows the way to best protect itself again foreign attempts to topple it is to have nukes.

And you can kind of see their point. The US, China, France, Israel have them, so why shouldn't they?

The danger is if the regime is toppled from the inside. That kind of instability with nukes floating around is worrying - who knows where they could end up. There's also the potential for North Korea to eventually export their nuclear technology to other states where there could also be instability.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/844382693047615492

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/21/asia/north-korea-missile-test/

(CNN) A North Korean missile fired Wednesday exploded "within seconds of launch," according to US Pacific Command.

US officials confirmed North Korea had attempted to launch a missile near Kalma, on the country's east coast, but early reports suggest it failed.

"South Korea and the US are aware of the missile launch and to their knowledge North Korea's missile was not successfully launched," South Korea's Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

Neither the US nor South Korea have released information on what type of missile was fired, or why it failed. The US Pacific Command said it was working with partners to assess it further.

At a daily press briefing Wednesday, China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying again called on all parties on the Korean Peninsula, including South Korea and the United States, to "exercise restraint."

"The current situation on the peninsula is extremely tense -- 'everyone with his dagger drawn' would be a fair description," she said.

The attempted launch comes four days after the North Korea announced it had tested a new rocket engine, describing it as a "great leap forward" in their missile program.

US defense officials told CNN the engine could be used for a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile.

It isn't the North Korea's first launch this month -- the country fired four intermediate-range ballistic missiles on March 6, which fell into waters off Japan.

Three of them landed less than 200 nautical miles off the Japanese coast, antagonizing the South Korean and Japanese governments.