Zynx said:Yes, I think this is best. It rewards being accurate with predictions, and it doesn't matter what others have predicted.Cheesemeister said:Nah, just sum the absolute differences between the prediction and actual for each system. Lowest diff wins
Zynx said:Let's say example A has true numbers of 147k, and people predicted 145k 144k 143k 100k. The 143k predictor is in 3rd place despite being very close.
Zynx said:That's why I like systems that don't take into account what others have predicted.
Zynx said:Oh, as carryover your q from the previous thread...what I propose to avoid the need for hand copy-pasting into excel is requiring everyone to follow the same format when posting their predictions. It doesn't need to be complicated. Then a program could automatically extract predictions. (Actually it'd end up being a very, very, very simple version of what Cheesemeister does for Media-Create.)
As simple as [system] prediction (k) would do for a format, for example:
[Wii] 430k
[DS] 450k
[PS2] 190k
[Xbox 360] 180k
[GBA] 80k
[PS3] 90k
[Xbox] 10k
Cheesemeister said:That'd be a cinch to program.
Earthstrike said:If we're still doing monthly deviation sums and ranking people, people can get bonus points for how they place in that ranking system. These points shouldn't have the ability to dominate the points distributed by system #2, but they should play a small role.
Fredescu said:Thanks for the effort you and others are putting into this by the way,
ComputerNerd said:Wouldn't it be easier for somebody to just create a simple website to record the stats?
sonycowboy said:The best hope would be to have an application support it. It is a little bit of work, but to get the best participation, it's best to let people make their predictions in their own way, and not make it overly difficult on them.
border said:What does the person with the most points win?
A Life?
donny2112 said:It would also have to extract the username that predicted, and be flexible enough to handle a fully spelled out prediction (e.g. 430,225 instead of 430K). Entries that don't follow the format would still need to be entered by hand, but saving some time is better than saving none.
donny2112 said:Would you care to give it a shot?
donny2112 said:It would also have to extract the username that predicted, and be flexible enough to handle a fully spelled out prediction (e.g. 430,225 instead of 430K). Entries that don't follow the format would still need to be entered by hand, but saving some time is better than saving none.
ComputerNerd said:Wouldn't it be easier for somebody to just create a simple website to record the stats?
Enter your user name, and the #'s for each system. Simple. Disable it when NPD's are about to come out.
Then you can calculate the results MUCH easier.
I think it would be easier than using a parser. It'd be faster, and more accurate.
apujanata said:- point #1 should be changed from 25 point to lower point (5-10 points). The 25 points is too big a bonus (10%+).
apujanata said:- The points calculation should be rounded up to the nearest 2 digit decimal for each component.
apujanata said:- We need to decide the closing time of this point system discussion. If one week after OP (June 10) sufficiently long ?
Cheesemeister said:Yeah, sure thing. The actual formula used to do the rankings would be just that -- a formula -- so it'd be easy to change.
donny2112 said:I use Excel for recording the predictions and then move that to Access to tally the rankings. If the parser could just get it into an easy to read format for Excel, that'd be a great first step.
sp0rsk said:Why are people trolling this thread?
Cheesemeister said:I can do you one better and output the results of applying any formula in nicely-formatted BBCode text.
OatmealMu said:A points system!
donny2112 said:The way I currently do System #2 in Access:
Algorithm
The second part is a straight-forward formula. Do you think it would be worth the trouble for you to program the first part into a parser?
OatmealMu said:A points system!
Cheesemeister said:Yeah, that's all simple table sorting and comparison stuff. Very straightforward.
donny2112 said:Cool. Thanks!
Edit:
What about entries that aren't automatically parsed? You mentioned that it would output errors, if it couldn't parse the data, so I can just use my old, decrepit method on those.
Edit2:
Could the parser still have an option to output the username and predictions data? I keep a monthly Excel sheet with most of the prediction results from the last year, and I'd like to keep that current, if possible.
Hey, as long as we're here arguing pointless stuff anyway, we might as well have a record of whether or not person Z is ever even close to right.border said:What does the person with the most points win?
A Life?
Cheesemeister said:Yeah, sure thing. The actual formula used to do the rankings would be just that -- a formula -- so it'd be easy to change. The initial implementation, of course, will just be the absolute diffs... I think Nov. and Dec. should be worth more in terms of cumulative rankings, as more sales are at stake during those months.
Parser flexibility isn't a problem; errors can be reported. Case-insensitivity, subtle variations on system names, interpretation of "K", and order of system predictions are no issue.
Uh... I'm afraid I've let my website-creating skills lapse. I was thinking about doing such a thing for downloadable game sales tracking, but have been putting it off due to all the homework involved.
starship said:It seems most people prefer system 2 more, so now can we have a tally for the first four months of the year and the last three months based on this system?
Cheesemeister said:In what format?
tanod said:How about predicting the top 3 or 5 SW titles? Maybe not numbers but order for additional points?
sonycowboy said:I'm working on this in a larger sense. Let's hold off on this for a little bit. (Also, when I did have the SW as part of the contest, the SW predictions were about a 1/10th of the HW predictions in terms of participation).
DayShallCome said:If someone doesn't pick the systems in the correct order, than his % difference will account for this, right?
donny2112 said:Not with close systems. For April, someone could have predicted 1-5 correct, but put PS3 at 85K and GBA at 83K. Percentage-wise those aren't far off, but it prevented him from getting the order correct. If it helps, you can think of it like bonus points, though it actually does take a good bit of predicting to get the order correct and have decent percentages.
donny2112 said:Rules
3. Bonus points for finishing in the top 10 by units for the month:
#1 - 17 points
#2 - 12 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point
/QUOTE]
From #2 to #3 is only 1 points difference. Suggestion :
1. change #2 to 13 points and #1 to 18 points
2. change #3 to 10 points, #4 to 8 points, #5 to 6 points.
dont ask meC4Lukins said:What is with all of this complicated bull shit? Just take the 6 systems that are relavent..... 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, DS, and PSP. Guess the numbers, and then establish who was closest. Nobody cares how GBA is selling anymore, or GC, or XBOX. It is just annoying to have to think about it. Go with the 6 systems that are still very active and that we can follow. Yes GBA is still around, but nobody gives a ****, and there is no real basis to predict its sales on. Let it die.
donny2112 said:Ordered, but unnumbered, points listings for each month can be found here. I plan on updating that page with each new month's data after it's calculated.
apujanata said:From #2 to #3 is only 1 points difference. Suggestion :
1. change #2 to 13 points and #1 to 18 points
2. change #3 to 10 points, #4 to 8 points, #5 to 6 points.
Cheesemeister said:Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
C4Lukins said:Just take the 6 systems that are relavent..... 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, DS, and PSP. ... Nobody cares how GBA is selling anymore,
Bildi said:Nice work donny.