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[velvet_nitemare]

I'm fairly confident it will outsell XII. It probably won't sell as much as X did, but that's hardly the worst thing in the world. It will still be the best selling RPG to not have "Pokemon" in its name for this generation.

As far as being "critically panned", that's both ridiculous and not true. It has an 83 on metacritic, which is pretty good score. It's not as high as some past games, but that's not a bad score by any stretch of the imagination. Yes, some places gave it very negative reviews, but there were also places which gave it extremely positive reviews.

It's hardly an ideal situation to be in. The negative word of mouth is almost as bad as FFX-2.

 

[Vinci]

The problem isn't that FF XIII sold poorly; it's that it didn't grow the franchise's audience. When the cost of producing a series continues to increase but the number of people buying it doesn't, that's an issue. Of course they could always take up DLC as a way of adding revenue on the back-end of each FF game.

 

[jrricky]

Oh, my mistake. Thought that was too high.



Shipping 500k in the west wouldn't be too much of an improvement over the psp game which also shipped around 500k in west. That is without a marketing blitz.

Im guessing that selling the game for 50 and 60 bucks will be much better? Selling 200k in west in first 2 weeks is a little decent though.

 

[DR2K]

...

The game sold 1.3 million copies last month, and is one of the top selling titles of the year so far. It didn't have great second month numbers, but that's hardly unprecedented. That trend has been continuing for awhile on the PS3 and 360, especially with big franchise games where everyone runs out and buys the game in the first couple of weeks.

I know what it sold in the first month, but second month sales are abysmal. Reviews are at an all time low for the mainline series, and reception is just as bad(outside of GAF). It's not a bomba of course, but so far it looks lukewarm for a FF game. Which is a good thing. It shows that the name brand is still strong, but the quality of the game can hurt sales.

 

[botticus]

Will NPD ever switch to weekly data? This "monthly" thing is too skewed when it comes to games at the end of the month.

Don't give them any ideas. We might start getting "Best Selling Game of the Week" with or without numbers depending on the phase of the moon.

 

[imtehman]

I wouldn't say that Square is disappointed in FFXIII sales. I mean, they knew they were releasing a game with a pink haired female protagonist in a region that loves thier bald space marines on steriods. How much sales did they expect to get?

 

[Opiate]

The problem isn't that FF XIII sold poorly; it's that it didn't grow the franchise's audience. When the cost of producing a series continues to increase but the number of people buying it doesn't, that's an issue. Of course they could always take up DLC as a way of adding revenue on the back-end of each FF game.

Sales do seem to be decreasing, though. Both you (and the poster on the previous page) are correct that sales aren't simply falling off a cliff: the franchise isn't suddenly selling half as well from iteration to iteration.

It's more like a 5% drop in sales, game in and game out. That's a seemingly unnoticable drop for any single new iteration, but add it up over 6-7 iterations (FFVIII to FFXIII, including X-2), and you have a ~30% drop in sales, which is exactly what we're seeing.

And yes, as you pointed out, this drop in sales is accompanied by a profound increase in development costs. Sales down, costs up.

In addition, the sales of the game seem to be increasingly front loaded, even in the west. Sales are stronger and stronger up front, and weaker and weaker in the tail. This is typically and indicator of a franchise that is becomingly increasingly solidified, with long term, die hard fans who rabidly await the newest version, but little attraction to new audiences who might pick up the game later on. In other words -- as you suggested -- it's not growing its audience.

 

[jrricky]

Ff13 PR is such bullshit. "Fastest selling" doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme, and so misleading.

 

[Vinci]

Sales do seem to be decreasing, though. Both you (and the poster on the previous page) are correct that sales aren't simply falling off a cliff: the franchise isn't suddenly selling half as well from iteration to iteration.

I'm waiting till we get an LTD on XIII before completely saying it has decreased, though I agree with you that it likely has - particularly over the recent history of the franchise.

In addition, the sales of the game seem to be increasingly front loaded, even in the west. Sales are stronger and stronger up front, and weaker and weaker in the tail. This is typically and indicator of a franchise that is becomingly increasingly solidified, with long term, die hard fans who rabidly await the newest version, but little attraction to new audiences who might pick up the game later on. In other words -- as you suggested -- it's not growing its audience.

I also like to look at DQ and Pokemon in reference to FF. DQ and Pokemon retain their audiences from installment to installment, despite the obvious likelihood that people who played the games when they were young have since moved on, found themselves unable to play them, etc. In other words, they are experiencing bleeding in their fanbases; the difference is, they are growing their audience with new participants at the same rate. They are, in essence, growing their audience beyond its original customers - without sending their development costs through the roof.

And yes, the fact that FF is doing the exact opposite should be a cause for concern.

 

[Chris1964]

I think your analysis needs work:
Sales for XIII were astronomical. GAF might be complaining but this is only going to encourage square enix to keep doing what they've been doing.

Your analysis needs work. In Japan FFXIII has entered the bomba bins long time ago. First shipment of 1,8M was enough.
Wada expected western sales (on two systems this time) to cover any potential slowdown comparing to Japanese PS2 FF sales and was hoping for 6M of worldwide sales. First shipment was 5M and I'm sure it won't get a second one.
It doesn't look so astronomical now, does it?

 

[Opiate]

Ff13 PR is such bullshit. "Fastest selling" doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme, and so misleading.

As a very good example to emphasize your point, GTAIV was the "fastest selling" GTA by a wide margin, selling far more up front than GTA:SA or any other GTA.

However, it appears that the game will end up selling ~5M less copies than GTA:SA, if not more. 5M is obviously an enormous number of copies.

We're seeing this a lot this generation, particularly on the HD consoles: incredibly strong, front loaded sales, with a very weak tail. In many ways, that's exactly what publishers want, however: 1) Early sales avoid used sales cannibalization 2) early sales make it very easy to know if the game is a hit or a flop within weeks or even days of release, allowing publishers to make rapid decisions 3) early sales are typically full price.

But it has its obvious downsides, too. Again, most notably, this type of approach has a tendency to repel new audiences.

 

[farnham]

If profound reinvention means a retro reboot back to the SNES style, I'm all for it. More gameplay, less interactive movie.

did that once with FF 9

did that again with FF 4 warriors of light

 

[Celine]

If profound reinvention means a retro reboot back to the SNES style, I'm all for it. More gameplay, less interactive movie.

Dragon Quest has it right. Way cheaper to make and sells more. (way better too!)

this two get it.

 

[Brofist]

Your analysis needs work. In Japan FFXIII has entered the bomba bins long time ago. First shipment of 1,8M was enough.
Wada expected western sales (on two systems this time) to cover any potential slowdown comparing to Japanese PS2 FF sales and was hoping for 6M of worldwide sales. First shipment was 5M and I'm sure it won't get a second one.
It doesn't look so astronomical now, does it?

True, it's certainly no MH3 that's for sure.

 

[Opiate]

I don't think a DQ-esque approach will work for FF. That's why I added the modifier "profound" to my description of FF's need for change.

Because the franchise has relied so heavily on presentation for years or even decades, it has cultivated a specific audience that cares a great deal about that presentation, in a way that DQ fans don't seem to (because the game was built on a specific, cartoony atmosphere that didn't require these high production values).

I think this is why FF's situation is so sticky: they can reduce costs by reducing production values, but this will drive sales down rapidly for a franchise such as this. They can probably increase sales by increasing production values even further, but this will make costs skyrocket even further.

It's a nasty trap.

 

[donny2112]

In addition, the sales of the game seem to be increasingly front loaded, even in the west. Sales are stronger and stronger up front, and weaker and weaker in the tail. This is typically and indicator of a franchise that is becomingly increasingly solidified, with long term, die hard fans who rabidly await the newest version, but little attraction to new audiences who might pick up the game later on. In other words -- as you suggested -- it's not growing its audience.

This sort of reminds me of a conversation from back in January 2009 (start with John Harker's post and read charlequin and I's discussion). Not exactly the same, but some similar points. Stagnating series probably call for other teams (or straight-up outsourcing) with close supervision by the original teams to get involved to try to bring fresh blood into the mix, while simultaneously freeing up your top developers to do something else for the company. charlequin eventually called it "101-level strategy," but a lot of companies don't tend to follow that route, keeping their top teams tied up for years on a game that sells only to the group that bought the last game, and costs a lot more.

Not the most efficient expenditure of resources.

 

[Quadrangulum]

True, it's certainly no MH3 that's for sure.

Exactly. One will meet expectations and has done significantly better than previous entries in the series.

 

[SlipperySlope]

I think your analysis needs work:



Sales for XIII were astronomical. GAF might be complaining but this is only going to encourage square enix to keep doing what they've been doing.



Critically panned? what?



Look, I get that previous entries had higher scores, but metacritic scores in the 80s and a near perfect from famitsu is nowhere NEAR "critically panned." Don't mistake the bitching of forum dwellers still pining away for an FF7 remake as the norm.

The game sold well. But it's been on a steady decline for quite a while. And as others have stated, less sales + higher cost = not a good direction.

The game will probably end up at a little more than half of what 7 sold. (7 sold near 10 million, right)?

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

People are spinning MH3 numbers hard, before today everyone said it would do great because it followed Wii guide to success. Being a good game with lots of advertisement correct? Now everyone playing the niche card.

*numbers are leaked, prove to be a franchise best*

Considering Capcom needed 900k to reach there 2 million goal, I think they where expecting a huge improvement in MH3. I mean the opening month is 2x the sales of the PSP version but we all know those sold like dog shit, so doesn't really make these sales superb. There was a HUGE advertising push for this game , but don't get me wrong it did ok sales considering the series but would we really call it a "success" considering the advertisement that went into it?

I get it, you're going for irony. You're so meta.

 

[SephirothRK]

Glad to see Splinter Cell is doing good, and also Monster Hunter. But I'm sure we'll see higher numbers for SSFIV next result.

 

[Vinci]

I don't think a DQ-esque approach will work for FF. That's why I added the modifier "profound" to my description of FF.

Because the franchise has relied so heavily on presentation for years or even decades, it has cultivated a specific audience that cares a great deal about that presentation, in a way that DQ fans don't seem to (because the game was built on a specific, cartoony atmosphere that didn't require these high production values).

I think this is why FF's situation is so sticky: they can reduce costs by reducing production values, but this will drive sales down rapidly for a franchise such as this. They can probably increase sales by increasing production values even further, but this will make costs skyrocket even further.

It's a nasty trap.

I think they could go with something less realistic and more art-inspired for Final Fantasy. Hopefully something that would be breathtaking - I'm thinking impressionist style or something - but would allow them to create a template not based on constantly increasing polygons and tech over the following iterations.

Presentation minus the massive tech requirements, in other words.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I don't think a DQ-esque approach will work for FF. That's why I added the modifier "profound" to my description of FF.

Because the franchise has relied so heavily on presentation for years or even decades, it has cultivated a specific audience that cares a great deal about that presentation, in a way that DQ fans don't seem to (because the game was built on a specific, cartoony atmosphere that didn't require these high production values).

I think this is why FF's situation is so sticky: they can reduce costs by reducing production values, but this will drive sales down rapidly for a franchise such as this. They can probably increase sales by increasing production values even further, but this will make costs skyrocket even further.

It's a nasty trap.

Final Fantasy, in a strange way, was the series with most to lose in the generational transition. PS2 main series FF games were already struggling as it was hard to dedicate that much of time and effort on one project. I dunno that people really realize that Square only got out two real main series Final Fantasy games last generation (assuming, of course, you accept 11's placement as a marketing gimmick on something they were going to release, anyway). Square has been moving slowly ever since the end of the PS1 era.

FFXIII, and the work that had to go in to it, meant that much more work with the same damn sales as previous games, if that. They can't reinvent the series, they can't really go retro with it, their only possible courses of action is to spend years making one game and buffer it with lots of smaller things or just put the series to rest for a while. Their business model is not sustainable without Final Fantasy and people will eventually tire of spin-offs.

It's kind of funny. The Final Fantasy series path has become as linear as FFXIII itself.

 

[Brofist]

Exactly. One will meet expectations and has done significantly better than previous entries in the series.

So now MH3 was expected to struggle to 1.5 million worldwide?

Oh and I didn't remember walking into Sofmap like 30 minutes after launch and seeing it in the discount bin or anything.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

I wouldn't say that Square is disappointed in FFXIII sales. I mean, they knew they were releasing a game with a pink haired female protagonist in a region that loves thier bald space marines on steriods. How much sales did they expect to get?

This bullshit has gotten so old.

 

[DMeisterJ]

Exactly. One will meet expectations and has done significantly better than previous entries in the series.

Very easy to meet low expectations.

Selling 5 million copies of a game is nothing to be scoffed at, and the game is doing/has done fine.You can probably name all the games that sold 5 million copies this gen on both o your hands.

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

So now MH3 was expected to struggle to 1.5 million worldwide?

Oh and I didn't remember walking into Sofmap like 30 minutes after launch and seeing it in the discount bin or anything.

That's probably what they should have expected. Then again, this is the same Capcom that expected Wii owners to gobble up Darkside Chronicles and Spyborgs. I guess thoughful analysis hasn't exactly been their strong suit in regards to the console.

 

[Chris1964]

Very easy to meet low expectations.

Selling 5 million copies of a game is nothing to be scoffed at, and the game is doing/has done fine.You can probably name all the games that sold 5 million copies this gen on both o your hands.

Both hands of how many people?

 

[Vinci]

Both hands of how many people?

At least 4. I don't know. Tell me.

 

[DMeisterJ]

Both hands of how many people?

Five or six people

But the point was that selling 5 million copies of a game is something much more special than 1.5 million copies. One is a lot more harder to attain than the other.

 

[Jokeropia]

So now MH3 was expected to struggle to 1.5 million worldwide?

They've shipped 1.15 million in Japan alone. They won't "struggle" to ship 350k to the west.

Oh and I didn't remember walking into Sofmap like 30 minutes after launch and seeing it in the discount bin or anything.

And yet it got (at least) a second shipment.

 

[Vinci]

But the point was that selling 5 million copies of a game is something much more special than 1.5 million copies. One is a lot more harder to attain than the other.

Depends on the budget of each game. If I made a game for 100,000, and it sold 1.5 million copies, that would be ridiculously more impressive than someone selling 5 million after spending 40 million or so.

I'm speaking generally in this case, not pointing out any titles in particular.

EDIT: As for the 5 million games of this generation... I believe the Wii and DS have about a dozen apiece that have achieved 5 million or more in sales. 360 has 5 or so. Not sure if the PS3 has officially had a 5 million seller.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Both hands of how many people?

I'd say it'd be fair to say that you could get all 5-million selling retail video games ever on both hands of 6 or 7 people.

... In fact, let me try

Nintendo (54 that I counted)
Wii: Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit, Wii Fit Plus, NSMB Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Galaxy, Brawl, MP8
Cube: Melee, MK DD, Sunshine
N64: SM64, Goldeneye, OOT, MK64, Smash Bros
SNES: SMW, DKC, SMK, Street Fighter II, ALTTP, DKC2... I might be missing one or two here
NES: SMB, SMB2, SMB3, Zelda, Zelda 2
DS: Nintendogs, NSMB, Brain Age, Brain Age 2, MKDS, Diamond/Pearl, HG/SS, Animal Crossing, Platinum, SM64, Big Brain Academy, Pokemon MD2 (DQ9 should make it here)
GBA: Ruby/Sapphire, FR/LG, Emerald, SMA, SMA2
GB: Tetris, Pokemon RBG, Pokemon Y, Pokemon GC, Pokemon C, Link's Awakening, SML, SML2...

Sega (1)
Genesis: Sonic 2

Sony (15)
PS1: GT, FFVII, FFVIII, FFIX, Crash, Crash 2, Crash 3, Tomb Raider, Tomb Raider II
PS2: GT3, GT4, FFX, FFXII, KH, KH2

Microsoft (5)
Xbox: Halo, Halo 2
Xbox 360: Halo 3, Gears, Gears 2

Other (2)
Atari 2600: Pac-Man

PC (7)
The Sims, The Sims 2, Myst, WoW, Starcraft, Half-Life, Half-Life 2 -- I'm certain I'm missing a few Korean / Chinese games here, and maybe Diablo 2 and Warcraft 3?

Multiplat (13-ish)
GTA3, GTA3VC, GTA3SA, Guitar Hero 3, maybe GH2, MW, MW2, WaW, Namco Museum depending on how you group 'em together, Fallout 3, Force Unleashed, Mario and Sonic, Mario and Sonic 2, I'm sure I'm missing a few here

So maybe more like 10-12 people?

 

[Celine]

You can probably name all the games that sold 5 million copies this gen on both o your hands.

If you exclude Nintendo, you are right.

EDIT:
Maybe not even in that case.

 

[Brofist]

They've shipped 1.15 million in Japan alone. They won't "struggle" to ship 350k to the west.
And yet it got (at least) a second shipment.

It got a second shipment because they are content to pretty much give the game away in Japan in hopes for online revenue.

As far as the West, I can't see it selling much beyond it's low numbers.

 

[DMeisterJ]

I was sure that I said 'this gen' at the end of my post. Apparently I didn't. Well, that was the point I was trying to make, that 5 mil this gen is nothing to scoff at as sales of lots of software is down, and FF isn't the only series whose sales have fallen since last gen.

 

[Vinci]

I was sure that I said 'this gen' at the end of my post. Apparently I didn't. Well, that was the point I was trying to make, that 5 mil this gen is nothing to scoff at as sales of lots of software is down, and FF isn't the only series whose sales have fallen since last gen.

Mine was just this gen though. =(

 

[Chris1964]

Multiplat (13-ish)
I'm sure I'm missing a few here

Twilight Princess is one

 

[Sadist]

I'm sure I'm missing a few here

Super Mario Allstars (SNES), Tekken 3 (PS), Driver (Multi), Resident Evil 1 (multi), Resident Evil 2 (multi), MGS (PS), Need for Speed Underground, Underground 2 (Multi)

 

[Chris1964]

+ FIFA, Pro Evolution Soccer, Madden

 

[Stumpokapow]

Twilight Princess is one

An obvious omission, largely because I totally forgot about the GameCube version. D'oh!

+ FIFA, Pro Evolution Soccer, Madden

Which specific years? There's definitely only been a few years of each that broke 5 million.

Super Mario Allstars (SNES), Tekken 3 (PS), Driver (Multi), Resident Evil 1 (multi), Resident Evil 2 (multi), MGS (PS), Need for Speed Underground, Underground 2 (Multi)

Did MGS1 break 5? All the others, definitely.

 

[Jokeropia]

It got a second shipment because they are content to pretty much give the game away in Japan in hopes for online revenue.

So how much are Capcom selling it to retailers for and how much lower is it compared to what they normally charge?

As far as the West, I can't see it selling much beyond it's low numbers.

If you can't see it shipping 350k, you really can't see well. I think even the PSP version shipped 500k in the west.

 

[VerTiGo]

I expect Monster Hunter Tri to have legs.

Remember when you were a kid? I expect it to have playground rep. :lol I'm serious by the way.

 

[Darthdevidem01]

So much misinformation:

1. FF12 was out of the top 10 in its 2nd NPD month, that was IN the holidays.

2. MGS4 was out of the top 10 in its 2nd month.....so did it have a terrible word of mouth too? Was it a failure?

FF13 is multiplat compared to the above two titles, if we combine versions it will definitely be in the top 20

Next the UK GFK ELSPA website lists FF8, 10 with gold awards, which means they didn't go over 300K in the UK. FF13's first month in the UK was 225K.

And lol @ people saying the series needs to return to its roots, FF9 did that & they shipped 5.08 Million copies of FF9 Life To Date. They shipped 5 Million copies of FF13 initially.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it has bad word of mouth. Check amazon reviews, it has anything but a bad word of mouth. I would see a bad word of mouth as 1 & 2 stars being the majority of the scores.

If FF is so "bad" its sales would have gone down the drain like Tomb Raider, Sonic, Crash bandicoot sales did after they became "bad". Clearly people still love FF

Chocobo's FTW!

 

[Oxx]

Does Mario/Sonic Olympics come into the 5m-sellers discussion?

 

[Lagspike_exe]

I'd say it'd be fair to say that you could get all 5-million selling retail video games ever on both hands of 6 or 7 people.

... In fact, let me try

Nintendo (54 that I counted)
Wii: Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit, Wii Fit Plus, NSMB Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Galaxy, Brawl, MP8
Cube: Melee, MK DD, Sunshine
N64: SM64, Goldeneye, OOT, MK64, Smash Bros
SNES: SMW, DKC, SMK, Street Fighter II, ALTTP, DKC2... I might be missing one or two here
NES: SMB, SMB2, SMB3, Zelda, Zelda 2
DS: Nintendogs, NSMB, Brain Age, Brain Age 2, MKDS, Diamond/Pearl, HG/SS, Animal Crossing, Platinum, SM64, Big Brain Academy, Pokemon MD2 (DQ9 should make it here)
GBA: Ruby/Sapphire, FR/LG, Emerald, SMA, SMA2
GB: Tetris, Pokemon RBG, Pokemon Y, Pokemon GC, Pokemon C, Link's Awakening, SML, SML2...

Sega (1)
Genesis: Sonic 2

Sony (15)
PS1: GT, FFVII, FFVIII, FFIX, Crash, Crash 2, Crash 3, Tomb Raider, Tomb Raider II
PS2: GT3, GT4, FFX, FFXII, KH, KH2

Microsoft (5)
Xbox: Halo, Halo 2
Xbox 360: Halo 3, Gears, Gears 2

Other (2)
Atari 2600: Pac-Man

PC (7)
The Sims, The Sims 2, Myst, WoW, Starcraft, Half-Life, Half-Life 2 -- I'm certain I'm missing a few Korean / Chinese games here, and maybe Diablo 2 and Warcraft 3?

Multiplat (13-ish)
GTA3, GTA3VC, GTA3SA, Guitar Hero 3, maybe GH2, MW, MW2, WaW, Namco Museum depending on how you group 'em together, Fallout 3, Force Unleashed, Mario and Sonic, Mario and Sonic 2, I'm sure I'm missing a few here

So maybe more like 10-12 people?

You forgot Gran Turismo 2.

Also, both Assassin's Creeds games.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Does Mario/Sonic Olympics come into the 5m-sellers discussion?

Provided you're okay with multiplatform, yes, both of them. If you want single-SKU, mayyyyybe one of the Summer Olympics ones but I don't think either.

You forgot Gran Turismo 2.

Yep.

 

[Sadist]

Did MGS1 break 5? All the others, definitely.

I thought so. Didn't MGS 2 break five million as well? I also thought about Tekken 2 and maybe Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 (Multi).

 

[Chris1964]

Which specific years? There's definitely only been a few years of each that broke 5 million.

Pro Evolution did it every year since PS2, I'm not sure for 2010, FIFA this year and maybe the previous, I'm not sure of the exact years of Madden.

But even if we count only this generations there are way too games that broke 5M, especially if we go multiplatform.

 

[Eteric Rice]

If profound reinvention means a retro reboot back to the SNES style, I'm all for it. More gameplay, less interactive movie.

My God this.

 

[Celine]

Does Mario/Sonic Olympics come into the 5m-sellers discussion?

Yes, Stumpy cited those two games in his list but missed GTA IV