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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
Highly unlikely! IMO 11.5 mil. TOP!

We've been through this before. Everything points to between 11.5m-12.5m with 12m being the agreed average. Strategy Analytics even say 12.4m and Digi-times point to 12.7m in their internal reports. I've actually gone with the lower option here.

Unless you have evidence to prove otherwise?

I can show you the evidence I have if you want.
 

ClearData

Member
Jul 23, 2013
2,151
0
375
Ugh I hope Sony obtaining marketing rights to Black Ops 3 isn't true. That will just take time away from other games at their E3 conference.

I'd be shocked to the core if that were true. I thought Activision was content to co-market COD with Microsoft and Destiny with Sony. Thus making money on both ends. With Microsoft's deep pockets what could have enticed them away?
 

Conduit

Banned
Jun 20, 2014
4,241
1
0
Croatia
We've been through this before. Everything points to between 11.5m-12.5m with 12m being the agreed average. Strategy Analytics even say 12.4m and Digi-times point to 12.7m in their internal reports.

Unless you have evidence to prove otherwise?

I can show you the evidence I have if you want.

Well, if you want. Only evidence i have is word from Satya Nadella at metting from mid. Nov. last year. "Approaching 10 mil. sold to retailers".
 

Capella

Member
Oct 3, 2013
875
0
0
I'd be shocked to the core if that were true. I thought Activision was content to co-market COD with Microsoft and Destiny with Sony. Thus making money on both ends. With Microsoft's deep pockets what could have enticed them away?

If Microsoft has lost CoD marketing rights it's because they're being outsold 2:1 worldwide, so it's bad business for your DLC map packs to only reach the smaller portion of consumers for the first 2 months.
Which makes sense.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
Anyway,

Here is my personal forecast for the next 5 years as well as a look at how previous generations performed from Gen 5 through to Gen 7. Just thought I'd post it here so I have a record somewhere.

For Gen 8 the install base currently stands at ~41 million as of end of 2014. Through the end of 2019 I believe that the install base will grow to 150 million with PS4 as the market leader with approximately 60% market share, Xbox One in second place with approximately 30% and Wii U with around 10% market share.

*Percentages have an error margin of 5% each way.



For the record. I previously predicted 19 million unit sales for PS4 through the end of 2014. Actual outcome was 19.9m.
I also predicted 11.7m Xbox One unit sales through the end of 2014. Actual outcome was approximately 12 million.

Here is my 2015 forecast (with previous 2014 forecast). 36.1m cumulative PS4's sold, 21 million cumulative Xbox One's sold and 12.5 million cumulative Nintendo Wii U's sold.


Nice post/predictions. I agree. Seems like this gen will be similar to the 5th gaming gen in terms of marketshare breakdown.

PS1 = PS4
N64 = Xbox One
Saturn = Wii U
 

GobFather

Member
Jun 7, 2013
2,129
0
0
This is the limited edition Sony gave away at the recent event



If they keep the box the same, make it a white PS4 and put that image of the storm troopers helmet across the face of the PS4. It'll sell out so fast it'll make destiny month look miniscule and the Batman limited edition month a mere footnote.

wow, that is an amazing idea. Someone tweet Shu that idea haha. Too bad i have a ps4 already
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
Well, if you want. Only evidence i have is word from Satya Nadella at metting from mid. Nov. last year. "Approaching 10 mil. sold to retailers".

December 3rd they announced they hit the 10 million milestone which implies that this was hit before that date.

Also PS3 sold in 3.4m units in CY2014. MS started to combine X1 and 360 shipments in 2015 and so we can use these numbers as a guide. 360 shipments were 7m in CY2013 and MS said they dropped drastically in 2014 as anyone would expect.

If X1 shipped 11.5m it means 360 shipped 4.5m which is higher than PS3 by 1.1m units and not a huge drop compared to 7m. If X1 shipped 12.5m it means 360 shipped 3.5m units which is only 0.1m units above PS3 and is much more realistic coming off 7m shipped the year prior.

As mentioned we saw Strategy Analytics estimate 12.4m in their internal report and Digi-times placed shipments at 12.7m.

There is other evidence as well which points to above 12m+. I went with the conservative estimate though.
 
Nov 26, 2006
24,196
7
0
goldmetalsonic.wordpress.com
[NDS] Fossil Fighters {2009.08.10} - 92,000 in 20 days
[3DS] Fossil Fighters Frontier {2015.03.20} - 35,000 (retail only) in 15 days

Surely a consistent drop from the first one, but it wasn't a huge franchise since the beginning, and it shouldn't stop selling right away, considering it's also at 29.99. Btw, what's the LTD for the first FF? Did we ever get to know that?

Codename:STEAM, instead (22 days counted) is a bomba. Nintendo didn't even promote it at launch IIRC (I mean, no TV ad), but it's a bomba. I doubt the upcoming update will help its sales at all.


Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
December - 250,000
January - 30,000
February + March - 46,000

It's still selling, good. Wasn't it over 150,000 in Japan by January? In the case, it should be near 500,000 with US+Japan combined. I wonder if it can hit 1 million WW (at least in shipments) in the next 12 months

Bayonetta 2 was at <135,000 in December, it sold 10,000 in January (thus, < 145,000) and now it's at 157,000. This means it sold >12,000. Including first month's digital sales (10% of debut), it's at around 164,000 units sold (it's actually slightly higher, since I'm incuding just first month digital sales, but the max is 170,000 IMHO). In 6 months, it did outsell what Bayonetta 1 sold on PS3 in 18 months (150,000), and now it's going for what it sold on 360 in 18 months.

Zombi U FINALLY over 200,000 units sold in US XD It had major price cuts, so it had to do it eventually...launch period (excluding the launch week) sucked so much for Wii U...

You rock for the detailed post. :)

Thanks also to creamsugar for the update on Bayo 2, VERY much appreciated!

Glad to see Bayo 2 is doing... alright as time goes on. :p

Would be great if Nintendo would announce when Bayo 2 passes 200k digital and retail combined. Would LOVE a worldwide total combined for Bayonetta 2. Also curious where Bayonetta 1 stands. It's split on the eShop.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
17,582
0
0
Santa Destroy
Some of you are looking at this the wrong way. "Marketing rights" isn't like something you earn because you're the best seller or whatever. It's not a prize you win or lose.

It comes down to money.
Who is making the bigger offer? What's the best deal for my game or overall partnership for my company?

Am I getting a $10mm media match and a retail co marketing deal at Walmart? How much inventory from your channel are you spotlighting me? That kind of thing.

If Sony or MS has a deal in place, it's not like EA or whoever "awards" someone with it. It means that 1st party just wants it more.

It's resource manangement.
Each company (or sub, in the case of a Sony or Ubisoft) had to hit a revenue goal for the fiscal and they have X$ to reach it. If you're going to sell more consoles and games by putting those resources on your own titles, you do it. If you don't, you find partners to do it.

Think of current lineup.
Each party wants to have content in each major market. FPS, Action Adventure, etc.

Sony has holes this year... They lost Uncharted for the holiday, so that's budget leftover. They don't have a major FPS title. Look for them to fill that with partners, a la Battlefield or Battlefront

MS is interesting too... They were competing against Uncharted, so they locked in Tomb Raider. Category check. They have Halo this year, so I'm not sure where they'd net out with FPS. That will get their lionshare of budget... But they don't have a titanfall this year and lost out on Destiny. Double down on Halo or make it up with Call of Duty? Not sure. But note they already have Division.

AC is one of those games that's a good content filler, depending on 1st party release schedules since they seem to jump back and forth.

But yea. Just a guideline, but start from that line of thinking usually.
 

Boke1879

Member
Apr 25, 2013
22,005
1
0
Illinois
Some of you are looking at this the wrong way. "Marketing rights" isn't like something you earn because you're the best seller or whatever. It's not a prize you win or lose.

It comes down to money.
Who is making the bigger offer? What's the best deal for my game or overall partnership for my company?

Am I getting a $10mm media match and a retail co marketing deal at Walmart? How much inventory from your channel are you spotlighting me? That kind of thing.

If Sony or MS has a deal in place, it's not like EA or whoever "awards" someone with it. It means that 1st party just wants it more.

It's resource manangement.
Each company (or sub, in the case of a Sony or Ubisoft) had to hit a revenue goal for the fiscal and they have X$ to reach it. If you're going to sell more consoles and games by putting those resources on your own titles, you do it. If you don't, you find partners to do it.

Think of current lineup.
Each party wants to have content in each major market. FPS, Action Adventure, etc.

Sony has holes this year... They lost Uncharted for the holiday, so that's budget leftover. They don't have a major FPS title. Look for them to fill that with partners, a la Battlefield.

MS is interesting too... They were competing against Uncharted, so they locked in Tomb Raider. Category check. They have Halo this year, so I'm not sure where they'd net out with FPS. That will get their lionshare of budget... But they don't have a titanfall this year and lost out on Destiny. Double down on Halo or make it up with Call of Duty? Not sure. But note they already have Division.

AC is one of those games that's a good content filler, depending on 1st party release schedules since they seem to jump back and forth.

But yea. Just a guideline, but start from that line of thinking usually.

Thanks for this and you're right. Makes sense Sony has Battlefront right now really fills the void in the FPS genre for them
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
Some of you are looking at this the wrong way. "Marketing rights" isn't like something you earn because you're the best seller or whatever. It's not a prize you win or lose.

It comes down to money.
Who is making the bigger offer? What's the best deal for my game or overall partnership for my company?

Am I getting a $10mm media match and a retail co marketing deal at Walmart? How much inventory from your channel are you spotlighting me? That kind of thing.

If Sony or MS has a deal in place, it's not like EA or whoever "awards" someone with it. It means that 1st party just wants it more.

It's resource manangement.
Each company (or sub, in the case of a Sony or Ubisoft) had to hit a revenue goal for the fiscal and they have X$ to reach it. If you're going to sell more consoles and games by putting those resources on your own titles, you do it. If you don't, you find partners to do it.

Think of current lineup.
Each party wants to have content in each major market. FPS, Action Adventure, etc.

Sony has holes this year... They lost Uncharted for the holiday, so that's budget leftover. They don't have a major FPS title. Look for them to fill that with partners, a la Battlefield.

MS is interesting too... They were competing against Uncharted, so they locked in Tomb Raider. Category check. They have Halo this year, so I'm not sure where they'd net out with FPS. That will get their lionshare of budget... But they don't have a titanfall this year and lost out on Destiny. Double down on Halo or make it up with Call of Duty? Not sure. But note they already have Division.

AC is one of those games that's a good content filler, depending on 1st party release schedules since they seem to jump back and forth.

But yea. Just a guideline, but start from that line of thinking usually.

Aren't these marketing deals usually multi-year? Your description suggests that you can acquire or ditch some game marketing any time you want (assuming you outspend your competitors). But from what I see, acquiring some game X marketing is strategic decision for many years to come, and not just one year thing.
 

Boogalogist

Member
Jun 19, 2010
4,789
0
870
This is the limited edition Sony gave away at the recent event



If they keep the box the same, make it a white PS4 and put that image of the storm troopers helmet across the face of the PS4. It'll sell out so fast it'll make destiny month look miniscule and the Batman limited edition month a mere footnote.

This is an amazing idea. A Stormtrooper themed PS4 will sell fuckloads!
 
Aren't these marketing deals usually multi-year? Your description suggests that you can acquire or ditch some game marketing any time you want (assuming you outspend your competitors). But from what I see, acquiring some game X marketing is strategic decision for many years to come, and not just one year thing.

It depends on the companies involved and the nature of the deal.

EA flips pretty often with their games. Activision is often longer term.
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
It depends on the companies involved and the nature of the deal.

EA flips pretty often with their games. Activision is often longer term.

Market and competitive landscape can change much in a few years though. Not all companies are like Activision.

I assumed most publishers behave like Activision, but I'm probably wrong in that. So fair enough.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
Some of you are looking at this the wrong way. "Marketing rights" isn't like something you earn because you're the best seller or whatever. It's not a prize you win or lose.

It comes down to money.
Who is making the bigger offer? What's the best deal for my game or overall partnership for my company?

Am I getting a $10mm media match and a retail co marketing deal at Walmart? How much inventory from your channel are you spotlighting me? That kind of thing.

If Sony or MS has a deal in place, it's not like EA or whoever "awards" someone with it. It means that 1st party just wants it more.

It's resource manangement.
Each company (or sub, in the case of a Sony or Ubisoft) had to hit a revenue goal for the fiscal and they have X$ to reach it. If you're going to sell more consoles and games by putting those resources on your own titles, you do it. If you don't, you find partners to do it.

Think of current lineup.
Each party wants to have content in each major market. FPS, Action Adventure, etc.

Sony has holes this year... They lost Uncharted for the holiday, so that's budget leftover. They don't have a major FPS title. Look for them to fill that with partners, a la Battlefield.

MS is interesting too... They were competing against Uncharted, so they locked in Tomb Raider. Category check. They have Halo this year, so I'm not sure where they'd net out with FPS. That will get their lionshare of budget... But they don't have a titanfall this year and lost out on Destiny. Double down on Halo or make it up with Call of Duty? Not sure. But note they already have Division.

AC is one of those games that's a good content filler, depending on 1st party release schedules since they seem to jump back and forth.

But yea. Just a guideline, but start from that line of thinking usually.

Good post.
 

serversurfer

Member
Aug 31, 2013
4,962
0
0
Some of you are looking at this the wrong way. "Marketing rights" isn't like something you earn because you're the best seller or whatever. It's not a prize you win or lose.

It comes down to money.
Who is making the bigger offer? What's the best deal for my game or overall partnership for my company?

Am I getting a $10mm media match and a retail co marketing deal at Walmart? How much inventory from your channel are you spotlighting me? That kind of thing.

If Sony or MS has a deal in place, it's not like EA or whoever "awards" someone with it. It means that 1st party just wants it more.
What you're "overlooking" here is that any offer MS make needs to start with offsetting the double-revenue they're already collecting on PS4 just over a year in to the generation, not to mention the stigma of associating yourself with the loser instead of the winner, delaying DLC for the bigger audience, etc.

It's resource manangement.
Each company (or sub, in the case of a Sony or Ubisoft) had to hit a revenue goal for the fiscal and they have X$ to reach it. If you're going to sell more consoles and games by putting those resources on your own titles, you do it. If you don't, you find partners to do it.

Think of current lineup.
Each party wants to have content in each major market. FPS, Action Adventure, etc.

Sony has holes this year... They lost Uncharted for the holiday, so that's budget leftover. They don't have a major FPS title. Look for them to fill that with partners, a la Battlefield.

MS is interesting too... They were competing against Uncharted, so they locked in Tomb Raider. Category check. They have Halo this year, so I'm not sure where they'd net out with FPS. That will get their lionshare of budget... But they don't have a titanfall this year and lost out on Destiny. Double down on Halo or make it up with Call of Duty? Not sure. But note they already have Division.

AC is one of those games that's a good content filler, depending on 1st party release schedules since they seem to jump back and forth.

But yea. Just a guideline, but start from that line of thinking usually.
lol "PS4 haz no gamez"? I expected better from you, John.

More to the point, it's a red herring, because both insiders who leaked the rumor said they were told the deal went to Sony because of the difference in installed base, not because MS don't need them anymore. We don't need to guess why pubs are siding with Sony, but thanks for "helping." ;)
 

bourgeois

Member
Apr 1, 2010
1,193
52
915
If they get Call of Duty, that means they had both Battlefield and CoD in the same year, which is pretty crazy.

Their Battlefield, Alien: Isolation, and Shadows of Mordor marketing seemed barely noticeable to me compared to Destiny

Sony has holes this year... They lost Uncharted for the holiday, so that's budget leftover. They don't have a major FPS title. Look for them to fill that with partners, a la Battlefield.

Was there some kind of Playstation branded BF Hardline campaign in the US, or are people just referring to the PS Experience thing?
 

creamsugar

Member
Jan 30, 2006
1,099
0
1,495
Three men and one dog:
&#12295; - 6800 +
3 - 4850 +
4 - 1540 +
1 - 1400 +

1xx years ago: 216

3D: 611
4U: 278
K: 109
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
What you're "overlooking" here is that any offer MS make needs to start with offsetting the double-revenue they're already collecting on PS4 just over a year in to the generation, not to mention the stigma of associating yourself with the loser instead of the winner, delaying DLC for the bigger audience, etc.

I don't think there's much "stigma" when it comes to series that are so big that they will do well on both systems regardless.

lol "PS4 haz no gamez"? I expected better from you, John.

??? -- Where does his post come across that way to you? Uncharted 4 getting delayed was indeed a pretty good blow in the PS4's lineup for this year so them getting a marketing deal to help with that would be smart.

More to the point, it's a red herring, because both insiders who leaked the rumor said they were told The deal went to Sony because of the difference in installed base, not because MS don't need them anymore. We don't need to guess why pubs are siding with Sony, but thanks for "helping." ;)

I don't see how that goes against his points. I would assume that offering (substantially) more money can help with those situations involving user base when you aren't in the #1 spot. On top of this, we don't know if the COD deal is real and if it is, we also don't know if MS possibly feels that they don't need it because of the series' ties with the brand (that spans almost a decade) and/or them wanting to put all of their focus into Halo 5 (something else that John stated in his post).
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
17,582
0
0
Santa Destroy
What you're "overlooking" here is that any offer MS make needs to start with offsetting the double-revenue they're already collecting on PS4 just over a year in to the generation, not to mention the stigma of associating yourself with the loser instead of the winner, delaying DLC for the bigger audience, etc.


lol "PS4 haz no gamez"? I expected better from you, John.

More to the point, it's a red herring, because both insiders who leaked the rumor said they were told the deal went to Sony because of the difference in installed base, not because MS don't need them anymore. We don't need to guess why pubs are siding with Sony, but thanks for "helping." ;)

You do realize I was the first person to mention the Battlefront deal right? Months ago. Also, my post is neutral and meant to be informative... How are you reading that I'm claiming one console has no games over the other? I'm mentioning specific illustrative facts to give insight into how these deals work.

Your response confuses me.
 
Apr 13, 2014
1,695
0
0
Alberta
Was there some kind of Playstation branded BF Hardline campaign in the US, or are people just referring to the PS Experience thing?

Last E3 there was the surprise PS4 beta I guess.

Three men and one dog:
&#12295; - 6800 +
3 - 4850 +
4 - 1540 +
1 - 1400 +

1xx years ago: 216

3D: 611
4U: 278
K: 109

GTAV
360, PS3, PS4, X1

The Order

New 3DS

Monster Hunter

Kirby

rate my efforts
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Three men and one dog:
&#12295; - 6800 +
3 - 4850 +
4 - 1540 +
1 - 1400 +

1xx years ago: 216

3D: 611
4U: 278
K: 109

1xx years ago = The Order (2015-1886 = 129 indeed)?
It...it can't be.

The Order sold more than 200k in the first month...you all know what that means, right?
At least, it helps in estimating MH4U performance, as I'll explain later!
 

Alrus

Member
Apr 4, 2010
9,783
0
595
Belgium
If that's really The Order's number then it really dropped like a rock, and it didn't even sell that well in the first place for a game of its caliber. What a disaster :/
 

EmptySpace

Banned
Jul 10, 2013
5,177
0
0
1xx years ago = The Order (2015-1886 = 129 indeed)?
It...it can't be.

The Order sold more than 200k in the first month...you all know what that means, right?
At least, it helps in estimating MH4U performance, as I'll explain later!



cream meant 216,000 for the order.

reviews killed the game. there were worse games that sold for way more. its sales are almost resistance 3 level.

also, are those ltd sales? i would guess so, seeing gta5's figures.

i feel bad for kirby's too. damn. yeah, hardline sold like 10 times more. ugh.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
0
0
You do realize I was the first person to mention the Battlefront deal right? Months ago. Also, my post is neutral and meant to be informative... How are you reading that I'm claiming one console has no games over the other? I'm mentioning specific illustrative facts to give insight into how these deals work.

Your response confuses me.
You should be used to this, some people will console warrior any discussion, it's usually not that obvious though.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Ok, here's how to estimate MH4U sales by using The Order 1886's performance.

Let's use math.

Ri = Retail sales in the month i, i=1,2,...
Ni = Non-counted sales in the month i, i=1,2,... Non-counted = digital + bundles

MH had a bundle exclusive to Gamestop, not available elsewhere, so NPD probably didn't count it for MH sales in the first month

290,000 = R1 + N1; R1 = 290,000 - N1

R1 + R2 = 278,000

290,000 - N1 + R2 = 278,000; R2 = N1 - 12,000

Now, let's consider this: The Order was 9th in February top 10, MH4U 10th. This means that 216,000 is the max value possible for MH4U's first month. We know it's actually lower, because 216,000 includes February + March, but let's try to stick to as many known values as possible.

290,000 = R1 + N1
N1 = 290,000 - R1 = 290,000 - <216,000 = >74,000

R2 = >74,000 - 12,000 = >62,000

MH4U LTD - >352,000
 
Feb 3, 2007
10,323
1
1,110
Through the end of 2019 I believe that the install base will grow to 150 million with PS4 as the market leader with approximately 60% market share, Xbox One in second place with approximately 30% and Wii U with around 10% market share.

I just don't see the market hitting those numbers outside of unforeseeable circumstance.
Your PS4 estimate numbers seem reasonable, albeit on the bullish side, but I don't see the WiiU hitting global LTDs of 15 million as it's already moving into its decline period and is likely going to be wound down next year.

I really don't see any way the Xbox One is going to hit 50 million global LTD based on the sales of just one major territory and one sub-territory, outside of insanely aggressive price dumping, and even then if thats what they do end up doing to gain marketshare at the cost of revenue, I don't see them maintaining that beyond the launch of a successor. A successor they would be rushing to market in 2018 to stop Sony first mover advantage.

EDIT:
Basically, I see this gen having a smaller install base than Gen V did, of around 100 million consoles at something like a 65 : 25 : 10 split
 

John Bender

Banned
Jun 21, 2014
3,505
2
0
No way in hell does Sony have the (co-)marketing rights of the next Call of Duty.
I don't believe this for a second.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
We know it didn't chart in March top sellers of PlayStation store, so its digital sales won't be that good.

The game really isn't fitting to be bought digitally unless it's dirt cheap in my opinion. Wouldn't be surprised if the digital sales were low too.
 
Jul 21, 2004
10,632
0
0
UK
Jesus! It means The order sold 15K at best in this month NPD = more than 92% drop.

This got to be some kinda a record.

I'm sure The Order didn't quite do 200k in its first month. So second month will be more like 25-35k which is still horrid none the less.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
I'm sure The Order didn't quite do 200k in its first month. So second month will be more like 25-35k which is still horrid none the less.

cream said > 200k. Maybe was a mistake and he wanted to say < 200k, but it's not usual from his part.

Or maybe he forgot to include special editions in this 216k LTD.