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The likelihood of 14nmFF still seems slim to me, but it is certainly a possibility and therefore a possible reason for delay.
Checking the gaps again, it's actually extremely close. The market has changed quite a bit though, so I decided to add a little more context to this by mentioning that 14nmFF LPE phones started shipping in Q1 (though that's not the same as 14nmFF LPP). The important thing to note here is that Wii U was the only time time that Nintendo was behind Sony or Microsoft, so if Sony is able to use 14nmFF chances are decent that Nintendo can. Also, there has not been a case of a home console using a 5-year-old node in the last 20 years, though this is a unique situation. Basically, it all comes down to what Nintendo was planning when they first started working on NX. I believe that 14nmFF was planned for an earlier release back when Nintendo started planning in 2014.
Note: Dreamcast is left out because I can’t find the info. I was just lazy when it came to Saturn. Also, I’m mostly basing the GPU parts on ATI/AMD, so it may be inaccurate; that’s why I listed quarters for those.
PlayStation – 12/1994 - 1.2 µm
1.2 µm GPUs - ??? (but ATI was using 0.6 µm in 1994)
Nintendo 64 – 6/1996 350nm
350nm GPUs – Q1 1997 (this was a weird one)
250nm GPUs – Q1 1999
PlayStation 2 – 3/2000 – 250nm
180nm GPUs – Q2 2000
150nm GPUs – Q3 2001
GameCube – 9/2001 -180nm (Note: There were rumors of this being aimed for a 2000 launch)
Xbox – 11/2001 – 180nm
90nm GPUs – Q4 2005? (Wikipedia was a fucking mess with this one)
All 7th gen consoles were 90nm
X360 – 11/2005
PS3 & Wii – 11/2006 (I think PS3 was delayed?)
40nm GPUs – Q2 2009
28nm GPUs – Q1 2012
Wii U – 11/2012 – 40nm (This one might have been limited due to the original launch having been planned for earlier and/or the cost of shrinking Wii U’s architecture down to 28nm being somewhat high)
PS4 & XBone – 11/2013 – 28nm
14nmFF LPE phones - September 2015 (Sadly, this node is not suitable for an APU or GPU in this form)
14nmFF LPP phones - March 2016
Upcoming:
14nmFF LPP and 16nmFF+ GPUs - Late Q2 2016
PS4 NEO - Q4 2016 or Q1 2017 - 14nmFF LPP?
Codename NX - Q1 2017 - ???
Additional note: 3DS was using 65nm in 2011. It might have just been due to the age of the chosen GPU, but that’s still pretty fucked-up.
Something to note is LPE was an early version of 14nmFF, so it was only useful for smaller chips, I'm fairly certain that the work on that process leads directly into LPP. Also, a handheld might be able to use LPE since that would b a small SoC. I'm not totally sure how it all comes together, but I'd say that it's definitely not impossible.
Either way, phones are a pretty big wrench here. Samsung should move all of the mobile chips they're manufacturing for Q1 2017 products to 10nm. That does theoretically free things up a bit, but the problem is that the Apple A10 (at least the ones made by Samsung) is most likely a 14nmFF LPP product. Note however that GPUs are expected to stay on 14nmFF LPP for several years, so it's possible that yields on large chips will still be pretty bad and Sony was only able to get a deal due to their success.
If Nintendo were to do it, it would most likely be either just a mobile chip or a heavily cut down GPU in terms of disabled CUs. I'm talking Polaris 11 with 14CUs (the full chip is expected to have 20) or Polaris 10 with 30 or 32CUs (full chip is 40). It's definitely a stretch, but it's not as unlikely as many think. Nintendo using an off-the-shelf 14nm ARM CPU would help a lot as well, making the chip smaller and increasing the effect of economies of scale.
The only NX rumours I wanna hear is software rumours.
I'm the opposite. I want those to be a surprise.
For anyone wondering why I'm different than I was yesterday: