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[Rolf NB]

If trends hold from previous holidays, the 360 will sell at least 700k in November. PS3 on the other hand would have to more than quadruple to sell 500k. This is not a particularly sound prediction.

It will double anyway due to seasonal patterns, and then there's the hooplah around the 399$ price-point to account for, which arguably weighed down the October sales, because it was known/heavily rumor-mongered way in advance. 500k is a bit of a stretch, but it's in a semi-possible ballpark, kind of.

 

[Tom_Cody]

I'm not sure the numbers for Europe, but I'm guessing they're not quite as good as US's. More realistic is prolly around 6 mil, which is still incredible.

Considering Halo 3's unprecedented marketing campaign, it is no surprise that its sales are so front loaded, therefore I am much more interested in seeing it lifetime sales. Halo 2 is at roughly 8 million ww right now. It will be extremely telling to see if Halo 3 can actually outsell Halo 2.

 

[titiklabingapat]

PSP sales are unusual, i think we really have to look at total software sold for the platform month by month rather than singular titles to see how well that market is doing. of course a healthy market shows signs of particular games being risen above all the others amongst its competitors, but as it is in a very "new" spot of being an actual competitor to a Nintendo handheld that hasn't been wiped off the face of the Earth after 3+ years and is still selling well, i think that is important, since like the article said, what are they buying?

its probably just a case of more spread out sales and many different people who have a PSP.

In the same vein, are they buying it as a gaming console or a multimedia device?

 

[btutterrow]

I think the easy reply as to why the PSP games aren't selling is 1. piracy and 2. using it for other media.

For myself, though, I just recently bought a PSP and have been catching up on some great games by buying them used (from Gamestop or Ebay). I love being able to get some amazing games for $10-20. I wonder how many people are buying the PSP and just loading up on cheap, used games.

I am hoping that Sony will keep up on the updates to the official firmware, push advertising on game releases, and provide some great downloadable content to the new PSN store on PC and PSP. This combination should help make the PSP a more viable (money-making) gaming device.

 

[RubberJohnny]

I love your monthly analysis, and I'm glad it has its own thread now. The NPD thread, even now, moves too fast.

 

[SRG01]

Both the Long Tail and Piracy theories are good explanations as to why the PSP is selling well right now. As a media device, the PSP is not very good compared to other products right now -- given the iPod and so forth. Hell, the PSP only supports certain video codecs, so you'd have to recode everything anyway. :/

As for myself, I bought the PSP during the summer because it had a wide selection of games.

 

[jjasper]

I have had a PSP for about 2 years now and hardly buy games for it until they are marked down, $40 is just too much for a handheld game. The only time I have spent that much was for FFT. It is getting better though with both Jeanne and Castlevania both coming out at $30

 

[hirokazu]

No, we're packing our Memory Sticks with videos to watch on the go that don't come from silly UMDs, and it's freaking awesome, duh!

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wii hardware sales, however, continue to be a serious concern. Unless Nintendo has increased production significantly, many expectant consumers will be disappointed for the rest of 2007. As noted in this column last month, historical trends and current Wii demand indicate that Nintendo could easily sell over 2.5 million systems during last two months of the year. That equates to around 300,000 units per week. Except for the Wii launch, Nintendo has never provided even half of that weekly rate to the U.S. market.

Well, they did say to expect double last year's numbers, which would work out to 240K/week. Given that October was just larger than anyone expected, though, the same happening in November and December wouldn't surprise me.

 

[winjet81]

I think the easy reply as to why the PSP games aren't selling is 1. piracy and 2. using it for other media.

For myself, though, I just recently bought a PSP and have been catching up on some great games by buying them used (from Gamestop or Ebay). I love being able to get some amazing games for $10-20. I wonder how many people are buying the PSP and just loading up on cheap, used games.

I am hoping that Sony will keep up on the updates to the official firmware, push advertising on game releases, and provide some great downloadable content to the new PSN store on PC and PSP. This combination should help make the PSP a more viable (money-making) gaming device.

This is exactly what I do.

With the huge library of games, coupled with the fact that most games take a regular console games' amount of time to finish (10-20 hours), I now have a constant supply of 3-4 unopened games to play through, meaning that I buy 'new' games on sale months and months after they've been released.

 

[Skiptastic]

Hee hee, Matt Matthews. From one fellow Matt to another, you've done our name proud!

Good analysis. Interesting thoughts, we'll see what happens in November and December!

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I really wish the PSP would get a system seller on its hands so I dont have to here how it supposedly doesnt have any good games on it. Its really quite successful and should live out a healthy lifespan regardless.

Overall, this grow is a positive for third parties. Perhaps they can still survive dispite all the extra costs this gen has brought about. For the longest time, it felt like they had to join the Borg or be consumed.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

The PSP situation is truly unusual. By historical standards, the system is selling well. Nintendo has never had such strong competition in the handheld market, and October was especially robust for the PSP. For most of 2007, Sony has sold fewer than 5 PSPs for every 10 Nintendo DS handhelds. In October, that ratio surged above 6 PSPs to every 10 Nintendo DS handhelds for the first time since January 2007 when Nintendo DS supply was severely constrained from the Holiday 2006 rush. Still, the PSP has no defining software hits and only two major titles – Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories and Madden NFL 08 – have ranked in the top 20 this year. No PSP games have made the top 10 list for over a year. Given the struggling UMD movie market, one wonders just what all those people are doing once they buy the system.

Same considerations. And same conclusions.

 

[tanod]

I really wish the PSP would get a system seller on its hands so I dont have to here how it supposedly doesnt have any good games on it. Its really quite successful and should live out a healthy lifespan regardless.

It's selling well. The PSP doesn't need a system seller. The games are what needs the sales.

I think the biggest problem is with the pricing of PSP games. They need to be in line with DS games. $30 for 95% of new games. $35 might be ok for a couple but $40 is too much. You're not going to sell a lot of handheld games when you're pricing structure is approaching the Wii and PS2 pricing.

 

[Shig]

It's going to be close (10-20 percent of each other). 360 definitely will not do 1 million. Far from it.

Hm, I thought you were playing some sort of cute semantic game in the orginal post you made (saying 'Sony' rather than 'PS3', translating to all PS family consoles' combined sales would surpass 500k). Guess I gave you too much credit.

You're serious in thinking PS3 will increase its sales 400%+ compared to last month? It'll definitely do a lot better with the price cut and the holiday swing, don't get me wrong, but... Wow.

Sales-age, has there EVER been a console that increased sales by over 400% month-to-month?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Sales-age, has there EVER been a console that increased sales by over 400% month-to-month?

Tripling or better sales from October to November is not unheard of, and that's usually without a price drop or special November incentive.

 

[BuzzJive]

I don't mean to be a party pooper, but there's never much in here that hasn't already been discussed countless times in the NPD results thread itself. That said, I think you could definitely provide some good insight if you actually had data that hasn't already been dissected and graphed by other Sales-Age people here. It's a concise recap of the publicly shared facts and a decent analysis and outlook though for people that don't want to go through the 40 page thread. But at the same time, by skipping that big thread you're actually missing some good discussions in there.

I just think that Next Gen and whoever else wants this analysis should provide you with more data and maybe you should just dig in a little deeper. Interview some people about the results. Give us some better historical trends. Participate in the NPD discussions with others so you can bounce some ideas around before publishing them.

Obviously you're articles have an audience (fans even), but personally I'd like to see it go to the next level of analysis (whatever that means) instead of being mostly a summary.

 

[HocusPocus]

360 doing much less. (close to half a million).

And PS3 will do fine. at $400 many will grab one as a Blue Ray player if for nothing else. The same reason I bought mine.

If they did 100K beginning of November, 125K/week average for the entire month is not out of reach.

Black Friday = More sales that day of console hardware than some months this year. I don't think 360 numbers will be low.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

PSP sales are unusual, i think we really have to look at total software sold for the platform month by month rather than singular titles to see how well that market is doing. of course a healthy market shows signs of particular games being risen above all the others amongst its competitors, but as it is in a very "new" spot of being an actual competitor to a Nintendo handheld that hasn't been wiped off the face of the Earth after 3+ years and is still selling well, i think that is important, since like the article said, what are they buying?

its probably just a case of more spread out sales and many different people who have a PSP.

I've seen complete top 10s post with full numbers, it's not pretty. Unless every single PSP game is a contender for the top 10. Let's be real here.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Thanks for sharing. regarding:



I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

:lol :lol :lol

 

[GhaleonEB]

I don't think that's realistic. 500K is more like it.

On the other hand I think Sony will do better than 500K.

The 360 sold 511k last November largely on the strength of Gears of War; that was up from 217k in October, for an increase of 135%.

This year they're starting with 366k in October. If they see the same % increase as last year, the 360 will do 860k. On the hardware side, they've dropped the price, bundled two games and added the Arcade SKU. On the software side they've got [giant list here] compared to a more narrow lineup from last year. On the flip side, there's more competition with the PS3 and Wii; the Wii will be in greater supply and the PS3 is down to a similar price point. I can see the 360 following the same pattern as last year, given or take 100k.

I still think the bar for the PS3 to clear is the 511k that Microsoft moved last year at the same price. If Sony can't come close to that, they are in deep, deep trouble.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

The 360 sold 511k last November largely on the strength of Gears of War; that was up from 217k in October, for an increase of 135%.

This year they're starting with 366k in October. If they see the same % increase as last year, the 360 will do 860k. On the hardware side, they've dropped the price, bundled two games and added the Arcade SKU. On the software side they've got [giant list here] compared to a more narrow lineup from last year. On the flip side, there's more competition with the PS3 and Wii; the Wii will be in greater supply and the PS3 is down to a similar price point. I can see the 360 following the same pattern as last year, given or take 100k.

I still think the bar for the PS3 to clear is the 511k that Microsoft moved last year at the same price. If Sony can't come close to that, they are in deep, deep trouble.

That's about all there is to say on that.

I say 700k for 360 and 400k for PS3, and Halo at 400k or so again.

I don't know how any rational person could think the 360 will contract from last year, with all it has going for it this year, and after the 4th biggest October in US history.

 

[xbhaskarx]

I don't know how any rational person could think the 360 will contract from last year, with all it has going for it this year, and after the 4th biggest October in US history.

The 360 had the 4th biggest October in US history?

 

[Version 3.0]

The 360 had the 4th biggest October in US history?

The 5th largest, actually, and only if you don't count handhelds:

Wii - 2007 - 519,000
PS2 - 2002 - 516,622
NDS - 2007 - 458,000
GBA - 2004 - 443,276
GBA - 2003 - 399,800
PS2 - 2000 - 391,245
PS2 - 2004 - 380,540
360 - 2007 - 366,000

 

[GhaleonEB]

The 360 had the 4th biggest October in US history?

Heh. I think I started that one up.

Looking at the data for consoles since 2000 (the launch of th PS2), the PS2 in October 2000 and 2002 were higher than the 360 last month, as was the Wii this year. Next up is the 360 last month. I mentioned that a few times because it puts the 360's sales in context: it dropped a lot from September, and was outsold by a large margin by the Wii, but from a historical sales perspective, it was still very strong.

Edit: I have the PS2 at 289k in October 2004. Must have some bad data in there. And yeah, I'm talking consoles only, I don't even track handhelds.

 

[Version 3.0]

Edit: I have the PS2 at 289k in October 2004. Must have some bad data in there.

Could be me. Can anyone confirm?

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Could be me. Can anyone confirm?

If you guys can wait until I get home. Viscen or SC could set the record straight right now, I assume.

 

[ethelred]

PS2 was 380k in October '04.

Also, el-oh-el at the idea that the 360 will be outsold by the PS3 in November, price drop or no price drop. Between Halo and Mass Effect (which will be very very big) and then Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty 4, Rock Band, and GH3 residuals all performing more strongly on the 360... its software is going to push it incredibly this month. The 360 will outperform the 500k it did last year, and by a healthy margin, I'd say.

 

[VanMardigan]

I use my PsP as an mp3 player, locationfree tv player, and now as locationfree media player via Ps3. I haven't bought anything for it in ages.

And I seriously doubt the 360 is going to be doing 1 million in November. December, yeah, but not November. That would be crazy.

 

[jvm]

But at the same time, by skipping that big thread you're actually missing some good discussions in there.

I'm afraid of conflicts if I read the thread while simultaneously writing the article.

Taking ideas from the thread seems like poor form. I'm from academia and prefer to give credit where it's due (I've credited GAF for data in a previous non-NPD article for Next-Gen, e.g.) because that's what I've been trained to do.

At the same time, I don't feel free to participate here because Next-Gen is asking me to write for them exclusively, and I would hate to have the things that I intended specifically for Next-Gen on Tuesday end up on a competitor's site on Monday.

Finally, when NPD has given me extra data to help me on a particular angle, it's with the understanding that it's in my capacity working for Next-Gen. So I feel somewhat constrained to work alone. Perhaps I'm just a recluse at heart, but that's how I feel.

Also, there is a time-to-press issue. I wrote the first two of these articles for Gamasutra in four hours, from midnight to 4AM on Friday morning after NPD data release. Since then I've gotten more room by publishing on Monday (last Gamasutra article) and then on Tuesday (three for Next-Gen). I wake up in a cold sweat every Monday morning after NPD, though, and fear that some other site has something up already.

I just think that Next Gen and whoever else wants this analysis should provide you with more data and maybe you should just dig in a little deeper. Interview some people about the results. Give us some better historical trends. Participate in the NPD discussions with others so you can bounce some ideas around before publishing them.

In the past NPD has helped me out with extra data. That did not work out this month, and I am not sure what I can do to make it easier for them in the future. It helps a great deal, but I can't guarantee that I'll get it.

Working from strictly the public data and coming up with something substantive to say takes a lot of work on my part. My experience is that I first was asked to look at the NPD figures seriously for the first time around 1 June of this year. You guys are an audience with (a) a longer experience watching the market and (b) potentially sources of more data than I can work with.

Since June I've collected a lot of various data points from a lot of public sources, going back to 2004, but it's far from comprehensive. I could certainly write a better article with better sources, but until some forces shift to make that happen, I put together the best comments I can based on what I have in front of me.

When I comment on PSP sales, for example, I'd love to have top 5 PSP games for the year with sales figures. I even asked for that from NPD on Friday. It simply didn't happen, and there's no way for me to expand the work without more data. Practically every big point in what I wrote this month had an extra data request behind it that could have given it more depth...

I'd love to have a way to discuss my ideas ahead of publication. I've tried to express above why I don't feel I can do that in public.

Sorry for the long-winded response, but I struggle with this every month. Putting this in front of GAF is the best way I know to improve, as people pick apart ideas and I try to learn to make a better analysis the next go around.

 

[suffah]

snip

I think you do a solid job, especially considering you have a time-constraint. I read the main NPD thread but I enjoy reading your analysis as well.

 

[Deku]

I think the recessionary fears and the credit crunch is going to affect purchasing of high ticket items. Wii/DS/PSP will benefit the most, 360 and PS3 will be hurt.

That hasn't been taken into account and the credit crisis is serious.

 

[BuzzJive]

Sorry for the long-winded response, but I struggle with this every month. Putting this in front of GAF is the best way I know to improve, as people pick apart ideas and I try to learn to make a better analysis the next go around.

Thanks for the response. I hope that as you continue to establish this thing monthly that people will be more receptive to working with you.

 

[jvm]

I think the recessionary fears and the credit crunch is going to affect purchasing of high ticket items. Wii/DS/PSP will benefit the most, 360 and PS3 will be hurt.

That hasn't been taken into account and the credit crisis is serious.

It's interesting that you say this. A source in the industry said this to me about two months ago, and I've been waiting to see how Black Friday goes down. I figure that will be the canary in the mine...

 

[jvm]

Sorry to reply/quote my own post, but...

In the past NPD has helped me out with extra data. That did not work out this month, and I am not sure what I can do to make it easier for them in the future. It helps a great deal, but I can't guarantee that I'll get it.

I know David reads and posts here, so I feel the need to be crystal clear on this point. David at NPD has taken time out of what must be an insane job to help me. I appreciate every number he's ever granted me to help my work. From the very little I know, he had a ton of work this month and that is the reason I wasn't able to get additional data for my article.

Just wanted to be clear that there is no acrimony (on my part), only appreciation and hope of working with NPD for my future articles.

 

[siamesedreamer]

I think the recessionary fears and the credit crunch is going to affect purchasing of high ticket items. Wii/DS/PSP will benefit the most, 360 and PS3 will be hurt.

This point was specifically talked about yesterday on CNBC (after they had on Reggie). They said game consoles are comparativiely more immune to cyclical economic downturns than other products of similar price.

I can't remember why they said this was true, but we'll see how it plays out.

 

[Chiggs]

The PSP situation is frustrating. The handheld clearly has a lot of good titles. What the hell is the problem?

 

[tanod]

The PSP situation is frustrating. The handheld clearly has a lot of good titles. What the hell is the problem?

snipped from the Uncharted thread:

 

[Version 3.0]

This point was specifically talked about yesterday on CNBC (after they had on Reggie). They said game consoles are comparativiely more immune to cyclical economic downturns than other products of similar price.

I can't remember why they said this was true, but we'll see how it plays out.

Yes, games have bucked the trend in the past, showing healthy industry growth during small recessions. I think it's probably due to the industry's youth, and its continued gradual acceptance by the mass market. Markets that are saturated, like movies, have to roll with the punches.

I think the games industry will do record numbers in Nov/Dec as it has the rest of the year.

 

[Ezduo]

pic

Some sort of tattooed bald man who can magically make guns float next to his waist? What am I looking at here exactly?

 

[tanod]

Some sort of tattooed bald man who can magically make guns float next to his waist? What am I looking at here exactly?

pirate

I should have grabbed the picture where the cargo pants show up better.

 

[donny2112]

It's interesting that you say this. A source in the industry said this to me about two months ago, and I've been waiting to see how Black Friday goes down. I figure that will be the canary in the mine...

This year has the earliest date that Black Friday can occur on, and, thus, the longest possible shopping season before Christmas. If retail revenue isn't higher this year compared to last for the full Christmas shopping season, that'll be really, really bad.

I haven't had time to read your article, yet, this month, but it's obvious there are a lot of people here who appreciate your work.