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Official December NPD Prediction Thread (Pachter kills EVERYBODY! Bow down!!!)

B

beef3483

Member
apujanata said:
As long as the H/W was shipped and picked up by the customer, it is counted. If not shipped or not picked up by customer, it is not counted.
Click to expand...

So if they we're shipped in January, then no, right?
 
O

Opus Angelorum

Member
omg.jpg
 
K

Kolgar

Member
I'm here! Just got in from shoveling! Wherez tha numberz? Hehehe.

I swear, I woke up this morning and thought it was Christmas all over again.

edit: By the way, I banked on Wii shortages and predicted a narrow 360 win. :D
 
D

donny2112

Member
I'm sort of looking forward to the Famitsu update more than NPD, tonight. Heresy?

Edit:
NPD brings back the Internal Server errors when E3 failed to this year. :lol
 
M

Mindlog

Member
You got "500 - Internal Server Error" in my "Official December NPD Prediction Thread - closes Friday Jan 11, WII > 360+PS3?"
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Ah, the classic "500--Internal Server Error" can mean only one thing--it's NPD time, baby!
 
A

apujanata

Member
SpoDaddy said:
Where exactly is the data up? Anyone care to post a link?
Click to expand...

Code: 
HW Sales
System December 2007 Annual 2007
PlayStation 2 1.1 million 3.97 million
PlayStation 3 797.6 K 2.56 million
PlayStation Portable 1.06 million 3.82 million
Xbox 360 1.26 million 4.62 million
Wii 1.35 million 6.29 million
Nintendo DS 2.47 million 8.50 million


Number of contestants: 205

Originally Posted by GAF Aggregate: said:
[PS2] 871,249; Expected Range = 350,000 to 1,300,000
[PSP] 1,036,582; Expected Range = 595,000 to 1,500,000
[PS3] 809,183; Expected Range = 440,000 to 1,100,000
[360] 1,346,046; Expected Range = 700,000 to 1,800,000
[GBA] 242,362; Expected Range = 10,000 to 700,000
[NDS] 2,351,355; Expected Range = 1,350,000 to 3,100,000
[WII] 1,637,618; Expected Range = 1,000,000 to 2,300,000
Click to expand...

GAF Aggregate overestimate X360, Wii, and underestimate PS2, PS3 & PSP (very slightly), NDS.

I overestimate Wii a lot, almost spot on with PSP, while the others are not doing too bad.
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
[360] 1112k
[GBA] 199k
[NDS] 2300k
[PS2] 999k
[PS3] 715k ( sony lied in their PR. Once again Shipped=/=sold sonybots )
[PSP] 1000k
[WII] 1500k
Click to expand...


PlayStation 2 1.1 million 3.97 million
PlayStation 3 797.6 K 2.56 million
PlayStation Portable 1.06 million 3.82 million
Xbox 360 1.26 million 4.62 million
Wii 1.35 million 6.29 million
Nintendo DS 2.47 million 8.50 million

Was I right or was I right?
 
B

Brakara

Member
Odysseus said:
lowball? outside of not knowing anything about wii availability, i think most of the numbers are sound.
Click to expand...

I guess we were both somewhat right. PS2 and NDS were lowballed, while 360 and Wii were too high. You nailed the 360 though.

apujanata said:
GAF Aggregate overestimate X360, Wii, and underestimate PS2, PS3 & PSP (very slightly), NDS.
Click to expand...

Actually, the PS3 was very slightly overestimated.

Edit: and I had 800k on PS3 before that piece-of-shit-Sony-PR was released. Next time, I'm sticking to my own numbers.
 
B

Belgorim

Member
Belgorim said:
[360] 1640k
[GBA] 100k
[NDS] 2460k
[PS2] 1092k
[PS3] 932k
[PSP] 1034k
[WII] 1362k
Click to expand...
I think I was kinda close on NDS, PS2, PSP and WII.

Man... PS3 and X360 totally threw me off, I just thought PS3 would do better and I thought 360 was supply constrained after reports so I just bumped it up to whatever I thought they shipped :)
 
P

Psychotext

Member
Belgorim said:
I thought 360 was supply constrained after reports so I just bumped it up to whatever I thought they shipped :)
Click to expand...
A lot more constrained than that apparently. :lol

Seriously though, I think the 360 would have probably done 200k more if they'd got enough elites and premiums out. That said, I think the Wii could have done another 700k.
 
Z

zsidane

Member
[360] 1210k >> almost
[NDS] 2710k >> Way off
[PS2] 920k >> meh
[PS3] 840k >> OK
[PSP] 998k >> almost
[WII] 1650k >> running out of pikmins!!
 
B

Belgorim

Member
Psychotext said:
A lot more constrained than that apparently. :lol

Seriously though, I think the 360 would have probably done 200k more if they'd got enough elites and premiums out. That said, I think the Wii could have done another 700k.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the Wii could no doubt have done a lot more, I think most people where taking shortages into their predictions. My faulty thinking was that MS would easily be able to ship insane amounts of premiums. They obviously didnt, even though 1,2M+ is still good.

edit: I do admit mine was on the extreme high side though for 360 :)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Code: 
	Me	NPD	Delta
360	1486	1260	226
NDS	2272	2470	198
PS2	872	1100	228
PS3	818	797.6	20.4
PSP	1049	1060	11
Wii	1349	1350	1

Total Delta: 684.4

I was pretty much nailed the PS3, PSP and Wii. Off by ~200k on the 360, NDS and PS2 - EACH.

Ouch!
 
D

doicare

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
PlayStation 2 1.1 million 3.97 million
PlayStation 3 797.6 K 2.56 million
PlayStation Portable 1.06 million 3.82 million
Xbox 360 1.26 million 4.62 million
Wii 1.35 million 6.29 million
Nintendo DS 2.47 million 8.50 million

Was I right or was I right?
Click to expand...

No you were wrong :lol
 
R

RBH

Member
Fucking PS2.

Just when I thought it was starting to die off, it turns around and does over a million. :lol

Besides that, I did pretty well with my predictions.
 
Minsc

Minsc

Gold Member
PS2 - 15% off
PS3 - 3% off
PSP - Perfect
NDS - 4% off
360 - 15% off
Wii - 15% off

Not too bad...
 
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