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Official Feb. 12th Primary Thread (Obama/McCain Beltway SWEEP SWEEP)

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These new polls aren't even being spun that positively for her, at least on MSNBC.

"How badly does she need to hold onto this lead, considering she's lost leads this strong before?"
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
They still, still have no faith in the remaining undecided Superdelegates (who I still believe are the majority of them) to go with whoever's in the lead and polling best Nationally.

Can someone confirm that majority?
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No, according to demconwatch it's Obama 147, Clinton 234 with 336 undecided. But delegates can still jump ship and I bet many of them do in the coming weeks, with the exodus starting in earnest on March 5th.
 
Triumph said:
No, according to demconwatch it's Obama 147, Clinton 234 with 336 undecided. But delegates can still jump ship and I bet many of them do in the coming weeks, with the exodus starting in earnest on March 5th.
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And, honestly, isn't safe to assume that those 336 are waiting for a definitive leader, otherwise they would've come out to support someone by now?

This whole line of thought seems completely ridiculous. She can and very well might lose this Superdelegate lead literally overnight.
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
And, honestly, isn't safe to assume that those 336 are waiting for a definitive leader, otherwise they would've come out to support someone by now?

This whole line of thought seems completely ridiculous. She can and very well might lose this Superdelegate lead literally overnight.
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Yeah, when she drops out. :D
 
But the campaign has something of a shellshocked feel, as staffers privately chew over a blowup last week where internal frictions flared into the open. Clinton campaign operatives say it happened as top Clinton advisers gathered in Arlington, Va., campaign headquarters to preview a TV commercial. "Your ad doesn't work," strategist Mark Penn yelled at ad-maker Mandy Grunwald. "The execution is all wrong," he said, according to the operatives.

"Oh, it's always the ad, never the message," Ms. Grunwald fired back, say the operatives. The clash got so heated that political director Guy Cecil left the room, saying, "I'm out of here."
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Adding to the sense of drama, an aide to Sen. Barack Obama yesterday declared the Clinton campaign all but doomed. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that Mrs. Clinton can't become the Democratic nominee without winning every remaining contest in "blowout form." In a conference call with reporters, he said that "even the most creative math" won't get her there.

To disprove that, the Clinton team is relying on its new campaign manager, Ms. Williams, and her reshaping of the candidate's message to focus more on solutions for working-class people.
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Ms. Williams is pouring resources into two must-win states, Texas and Ohio, which vote March 4. Some advisers are looking even further out: to spring contests in Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico.

Mr. Penn yesterday released a memo saying that Mrs. Clinton leads in the "three largest, delegate-rich states remaining: Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania." He noted that they have 492 delegates, or 64% of the remaining total Mrs. Clinton needs for the nomination.
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Mr. Patricof, the co-finance chairman, is brainstorming for new fund-raising ideas, having already raised the maximum legal amounts from hundreds of donors. Last weekend, he emailed finance director Jonathan Mantz with a suggestion to dial for dollars via video conference. The campaign is considering it. Mr. Patricof has even pulled out all his Christmas cards with their envelopes (for their addresses) as a reminder of people he can ask to donate to Mrs. Clinton.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120295209438666989.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
 
Ms. Williams is pouring resources into two must-win states, Texas and Ohio, which vote March 4. Some advisers are looking even further out: to spring contests in Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico.

Mr. Penn yesterday released a memo saying that Mrs. Clinton leads in the "three largest, delegate-rich states remaining: Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania." He noted that they have 492 delegates, or 64% of the remaining total Mrs. Clinton needs for the nomination.
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As if she's going to win all 492 delegates.
 
New Gallup:

021408dailyupdategraph1.gif
 
I'm watching the Larry King interview with Michelle Obama now. Dayum, she's something else. Well spoken, intelligent and charming. She'd make an excellent first lady me thinks
 
It doesn't matter *too* much if Hillary wins Ohio/Texas (I'm betting she will win those). She really needs to win them by a large margin to make a big difference.

Granted, wins in those states will eat into Obama's momentum.
 
Lost Fragment said:
It doesn't matter *too* much if Hillary wins Ohio/Texas (I'm betting she will win those). She really needs to win them by a large margin to make a big difference.

Granted, wins in those states will eat into Obama's momentum.
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Would stop him cold. Next week is crucial for Obama. If he wins both, and by a good margin, then he will probably get a nice boost elsewhere. If he doesn't win Wisconsin it could be the beginning of the end for him.
 
Deku said:
Would stop him cold. Next week is crucial for Obama. If he wins both, and by a good margin, then he will probably get a nice boost elsewhere. If he doesn't win Wisconsin it could be the beginning of the end for him.
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doesn't matter. as long he keeps the numbers close, he will still have the lead over her.
 
Just saw Hilldog on MSNBC saying "there's big difference between me and Obama", after her saying all primary season "the differences between us (the dems) are small, the differences between us and the GOP are large". Of course, that was when she was the frontrunner.

And what was the difference, you ask? "Speeches vs. solutions". Obama needs to come out and start hammering her on this shit... it could bite him in the ass if he doesn't.
 
Triumph said:
Just saw Hilldog on MSNBC saying "there's big difference between me and Obama", after her saying all primary season "the differences between us (the dems) are small, the differences between us and the GOP are large". Of course, that was when she was the frontrunner.

And what was the difference, you ask? "Speeches vs. solutions". Obama needs to come out and start hammering her on this shit... it could bite him in the ass if he doesn't.
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Just point out in Speeches vs Solutions, then why isn't she actually voting?
 
Triumph said:
Just saw Hilldog on MSNBC saying "there's big difference between me and Obama", after her saying all primary season "the differences between us (the dems) are small, the differences between us and the GOP are large". Of course, that was when she was the frontrunner.

And what was the difference, you ask? "Speeches vs. solutions". Obama needs to come out and start hammering her on this shit... it could bite him in the ass if he doesn't.
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She has tried that poetry vs prose nonsense since NH. It didn't work before, no reason to think it'll work now.

Obama's bigger problem is the media bought into her conceding WI bs. They are tied in the polls and she will start campaigning there on Saturday
 
Obama shouldn't be baited too much into making dry policy recitals. Hillary's been doing it her entire career and it wasn't was propelled him to his position.

The best way to respond to these criticisms is to put it in one of his speeches.
 
Lost Fragment said:
It doesn't matter *too* much if Hillary wins Ohio/Texas (I'm betting she will win those). She really needs to win them by a large margin to make a big difference.
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She can win Ohio, Texas, and Penn by over 20% and still not catch up to Obama.
 
PhoenixDark said:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120295209438666989.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
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Obama needs to get a handle on his aids though. No one likes overconfidence. The Clintons will spin it to their advantage making themselves seem like the underdog again. The media will run with it and Hillary's pity votes will pile on.

It's actually good that he's getting specific with some thing. He's a good speaker but there's only so many times you can hear the same speech over and over again with slight variations. If on the other hand he can keep doing his speech but just tailor it specifically to the state/city he's in at the time, he'll be good to go.
 
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