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[syllogism]

Rasmussen unfortunately still has Clinton up by 16% in Texas. Even so, as demonstrated, it will be difficult for her to gain what she needs in Texas.

 

[sangreal]

Rasmussen unfortunately still has Clinton up by 16% in Texas

I read another poll today with her up only 8%

I choose to believe polls that show her higher though.

Either way, I expect the gap to close once he starts campaigning there



meanwhile... Putin goes after Hillary - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/world/europe/15russia.html

Similarly, Mr. Putin swept aside a remark by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who said that as a former K.G.B. officer, Mr. Putin “has no soul.”

“As a minimum, a state official must at least have a head,” he said.

 

[mj1108]

New Texas poll has Hillary up by only 8% with another 8% still undecided. Obama leads among people who plan on voting early.

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/02/credit_union_po.html

edit:
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4972

If the gap is only 8%, Obama has all kinds of time to close that gap and get ahead.

Billary needs to start worrying.
*cue another crying fit*

 

[Deku]

I'm really leaning toward voting McCain if she wins. He's pro-environment, which is my number 1 issue, and I don't despise him. Also, her "foreclosure crisis fix!" proposal is batshit fucking retarded, and utterly unworkable.

He makes platitudes to young people and the environment. I've never seen him speak in any great detail. To his credit, he's the only republican to actually include the environment in his stump speeches.

The GOP bosses would reign him in. He's anything but a maverick in t his campaign. Being a powerful senator with a safe seat may have allowed him to buck his party as a senator, but with his relatively weak front runner status and a hard core of the party (the pro-business christian fundamentalists) still cool to him, he's probably had to cut many deals to get support. Romney's endorsement probably didn't come cheap either.

A McCain presidency is not the best thing for America even if McCain the man isn't bad. The party machinery and interest groups will be channeled through him and be pretty disastrous for the country's standing internationally.

 

[Rur0ni]

I read another poll today with her up only 8%

I choose to believe polls that show her higher though.

Either way, I expect the gap to close once he starts campaigning there



meanwhile... Putin goes after Hillary - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/world/europe/15russia.html

Same page, you missed out.

 

[Triumph]

Interesting shit over at demconwatch. Just look at the totals for delegates without MI/FL:

Obama: 1112 pledged, 151 super, 1263 total
Clinton: 978 pledged, 232 super, 1210 total

Now, for shits n' giggles add in MI and FL.

Clinton: 1156 pledged, 246 super, 1402 super
Obama: 1179 pledged, 156 super, 1335 total
Uncommitted: 55 from MI that would almost certainly go to Obama

Now, add those uncommitteds to Obama and we have a pledged delegate count of

Obama 1234
Clinton 1156

Which is a 78 delegate gap. Now, say worst case scenario from that spreadsheet happens and Clinton takes Ohio, Texas AND Pennsylvania with 60% and they split everything else including Wisconsin and Hawaii. (I know, I know- it's not gonna happen like that just play along)

Total thru rest of primaries:
Obama 512
Clinton 596

Total number of pledged delegates in worst case scenario for Obama:

Clinton 1752
Obama 1746

So, we can conclude from all of this worst case scenario for Obama:

If Clinton wins OH, TX, and PA by 20 points, they basically tie everything else AND she gets FL and MI seated, she'll be ahead by a grand total of SIX pledged delegates.

 

[Rur0ni]

It's been some days since SurveyUSA has come out with data, maybe we'll get some soon.

And Triumph, stuff like that makes me comfortable. What makes me uncomfortable is what goes on at the DNC and smoke and mirrors handshaking stuff.

 

[Triumph]

It's been some days since SurveyUSA has come out with data, maybe we'll get some soon.

And Triumph, stuff like that makes me comfortable. What makes me uncomfortable is what goes on at the DNC and smoke and mirrors handshaking stuff.

Yeah, I think if he can win one or both of those big March 4th states, it's over. Hell, if he wins Hawaii big and Wisconsin respectably, it's close to over. Obviously if he's only gonna win one of those March 4th states, I would prefer Texas for multiple reasons.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Rumors may be circulating that Edwards is leaning toward supporting Clinton, but his top donors are leaning Obama. "Interviews with nearly 20 of Edwards' top contributors in the Carolinas, selected randomly, showed a majority of them tilting toward Obama, with some undecided."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/15/667803.aspx

 

[Triumph]

I wonder how it will look for Edwards, champion of organized labor, to endorse the candidate that several unions just chose not to back. Awkward!

 

[Triumph]

Awesome opinion piece from Peggy Noonan in the WSJ.

The dread Republicans she is used to hating, whom she seems to pay no psychic price for hating, and who hate her right back, are not doing this to her. Her party is doing this.

Her whole life right now is a reverse Sally Field. She's looking out at an audience of colleagues and saying, "You don't like me, you really don't like me!"

Although of course she's not saying it. Her response to what from the outside looks like catastrophe? A glassy-eyed insistence that all is well. "I'm tested, I'm ready, let's make it happen!" she yelled into a mic on a stage in Texas on the night of her latest defeat. This is meant to look like confidence. Whether or not you wish her well probably determines whether you see it as game face, stubbornness or evidence of mild derangement.

HUAAHAHAHAHAHAAAHHAAHAA

 

[PhoenixDark]

Edwards will be finished if he endorses Hillary imo. His supporters aren't necessarily lock step in tune with either Hillary or Obama, but they seem faar removed from her. This would only confirm the suspicions that he's a power hungry fraud. What will he do if Hillary loses in November (assuming she gets the nom)? I'd imagine his supporters won't be too willing to jump on his loser bandwagon again in four years.

Bottom line: Obama has really taken the spotlight away from him; Edwards expected to be the anti-Hillary in 08.

 

[Juice]

Awesome opinion piece from Peggy Noonan in the WSJ.



HUAAHAHAHAHAHAAAHHAAHAA

Good article. I think we need to hear from the DNC exactly who gets to choose whether MI & FL are seated. All I've heard from party officials is that the committee made up in proportion of pledged delegates gets to decide such matters, and since Obama will control the majority of that committee, there's no way in hell they'll be seated. Why is the media even making anything of this?

 

[sangreal]

I'm tested, I'm ready, let's make it happen!

btw, what seriously contested election or primary has Hillary won?

In 2000, Rudy dropped due to cancer leaving her up against... Rick Lazio? Who even knows who she went up against in 2004

I don't understand how she makes the claim that she is better vetted than Obama because he hasn't gone up against a real challenger

 

[Tamanon]

btw, what seriously contested election or primary has Hillary won?

In 2000, Rudy dropped due to cancer leaving her up against... Rick Lazio? Who even knows who she went up against in 2004

I don't understand how she makes the claim that she is better vetted than Obama because he hasn't gone up against a real challenger

I've never understood it either. The only possible thing that makes sense is that she's tested by watching her husband come under fire. If she includes that in 35 years of experience, then I could see it. I don't think she's anymore tested than someone else.

 

[sangreal]

Good article. I think we need to hear from the DNC exactly who gets to choose whether MI & FL are seated. All I've heard from party officials is that the committee made up in proportion of pledged delegates gets to decide such matters, and since Obama will control the majority of that committee, there's no way in hell they'll be seated. Why is the media even making anything of this?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/27/192143/621

Basically, it won't happen unless the winner of pledged delegates deems it so

 

[Juice]

btw, what seriously contested election or primary has Hillary won?

In 2000, Rudy dropped due to cancer leaving her up against... Rick Lazio? Who even knows who she went up against in 2004

I don't understand how she makes the claim that she is better vetted than Obama because he hasn't gone up against a real challenger

Moreover, when has she ever demonstrated viability with Meat & Potatoes America? Demonstrating an ability to succeed in New York is not impressive if you're a Democrat.

 

[Tamanon]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/txdem8-702.html

Yeah it's ARG but Clinton 42%, Obama 48% in Texas.

That's a poll including independents that are likely to vote in the primary.

 

[Triumph]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/27/192143/621

Basically, it won't happen unless the winner of pledged delegates deems it so

Also, it's worth noting that seating the MI & FL delegates at this point would make Obama's lead in pledged delegates drop from 124 to 78. Not saying a +46 Hillary swing is negligible, but... it's not the end of the world if he takes TX, OH or both.

 

[Revengeance]

Bloomberg Rips Government Over Failing Economy

I LOVE Bloomberg, but I really don't want to see him run - I'm too attached to Obama.

I do like to see him involved nationally, and I think he'd be a good candidate for a future election (or as a veep.....)

 

[Juice]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/27/192143/621

Basically, it won't happen unless the winner of pledged delegates deems it so

Confirmation that either way, MI & FL can't decide it, because the nominee who already won it gets to pick whether MI & FL count.

So since it's next-to-impossible for Hillary to catch up in pledged delegates (probably actually impossible after WI & HI), why are we even having this discussion? As soon as Obama's assuredly ahead in total pledged delegates, the media needs to drop this bullshit and just call it.

Boo on the media over-dramatizing this, but it might be a way to keep Obama supporters enthusiastic about voting to prevent a last-minute Clinton insurgency.

 

[syllogism]

edit: beaten

 

[Cheebs]

ARG says he is ahead in texas? Thats good. But ARG along with Zogby have gotten nearly every primary wrong.

SUSA needs to poll Texas, they've been dead on in nearly every race.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

ARG says he is ahead in texas? Thats good. But ARG along with Zogby have gotten nearly every primary wrong.

SUSA needs to poll Texas, they've been dead on in nearly every race.

It's still too early, I think. Those crazy polls that got everyone's hopes up were like a few days from the Primary. These are going to go up and down until then.

 

[Pimpwerx]

I LOVE Bloomberg, but I really don't want to see him run - I'm too attached to Obama.

I do like to see him involved nationally, and I think he'd be a good candidate for a future election (or as a veep.....)

The unions will kill him. Anyone working a union job in NYC will tell you this. He's a neat distraction, but he'd get killed by unions for his bullish attempts to privatize everything. PEACE.

 

[Deku]

Boo on the media over-dramatizing this, but it might be a way to keep Obama supporters enthusiastic about voting to prevent a last-minute Clinton insurgency.

I think a lot of democrats would resist any kind of hillary ploy to steal the nomination and many superdelegates may defect to obama if it is perceived hillary is trying to manipulate the process (this is entirely my opinion only)

Jim Lehrer in the PBS news program interviewed 2 democrats, both undecided superdelegates, one is a pollster and at least one of them (perhaps both) made the argument that with all the new voters and youth joining the democratic ranks, it would be bad for the party if the nomination is stolen in any unseemly way. It was a not so subtle jab a hillary's attempts to gain delegates through patronage (superdelegates) and seating the disqualified MI/FL delegates.

So Obama has a lot going for him. The only thing he needs to do is keep winning as many states as he can, by as wide a margin as possible.

 

[v1cious]

so does the new Texas poll factor in yesterday's endorsement? cause i think it might be a bit higher.

 

[Loudninja]

So how is Obama looking for next week?

 

[mrmyth]

What Hillary fans (and Hillary herself) do not seem to understand is that pointing out that blacks are voting for Obama only because he is black is not going to help her. Its actually hurting her, and making her look bitter and petty. Trying to marginalize failed miserably in SC, yet they stick to the strategy. Now they court new minorities to try and replace the hole in their stable, and even that is half-assed. Mini mariachis and hot peppers, hmmm.

Above all, what this election cycle has shown to me is that Hillary's campaign is slow to change and adapt. She by rights shouldn't even be in this position right now. And if she can't adapt to suit the needs of the nation while running for office, how would she be able to from the White House?

 

[Cheebs]

so does the new Texas poll factor in yesterday's endorsement? cause imagine it might be a bit higher.

He got a big texas endorsement?

 

[virtuafightermaster]

Go clinton, I can only hope she wins big in TX and Ohio now.

 

[v1cious]

He got a big texas endorsement?

He got the UFCW endorsement. there's 26,000 members in Texas alone. 70,000 in Ohio

 

[Cheebs]

Go clinton, I can only hope she wins big in TX and Ohio now.

Yes, hurrarh for corrupt Washington insiders!

 

[Loudninja]

He got a big texas endorsement?

Hot peppers and Mango Ice Cream endorse Obama.

 

[virtuafightermaster]

What Hillary fans (and Hillary herself) do not seem to understand is that pointing out that blacks are voting for Obama only because he is black is not going to help her. Its actually hurting her, and making her look bitter and petty. Trying to marginalize failed miserably in SC, yet they stick to the strategy. Now they court new minorities to try and replace the hole in their stable, and even that is half-assed. Mini mariachis and hot peppers, hmmm.

Above all, what this election cycle has shown to me is that Hillary's campaign is slow to change and adapt. She by rights shouldn't even be in this position right now. And if she can't adapt to suit the needs of the nation while running for office, how would she be able to from the White House?

It is true blacks are only voting and and voting more because of Obam, but there is nothing wrong with it. Hillary should get more women voter, but she didn't it is her fault. She needs some big wins. I still think she is better than Obama.

 

[Triumph]

It is true blacks are only voting and and voting more because of Obam, but there is nothing wrong with it. Hillary should get more women voter, but she didn't it is her fault. She needs some big wins. I still think she is better than Obama.

You missed the point. It's not wrong to note that, but it's wrong to dismiss the results entirely BECAUSE of it... which is what your side has been doing.

 

[Tamanon]

BTW, Bush 41 to endorse McCain today, thus entrenching him as a Washington insider.

 

[virtuafightermaster]

You missed the point. It's not wrong to note that, but it's wrong to dismiss the results entirely BECAUSE of it... which is what your side has been doing.

I never dismiss it, what matters is the votes, who cares what kind of vote is there. Hillary needs more vote now, black, latino, women whatever she can get.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Thinking about the polls, though, the fact that there is even a poll in Texas that has him leading means Hillz won't be able to win with the authority she needs to.

 

[sangreal]

You missed the point. It's not wrong to note that, but it's wrong to dismiss the results entirely BECAUSE of it... which is what your side has been doing.

To be fair, she has changed her message. Now every state that doesn't vote for her is insignificant, not just states with large black populations.

 

[Cooter]

Blacks are voting for Obama not so much because the color of his skin but because of the shit the Clintons tried to pull on hin in South Carolina.

 

[sangreal]

I never dismiss it, what matters is the votes, who cares what kind of vote is there. Hillary needs more vote now, black, latino, women whatever she can get.

No, clearly the quality of the vote matters

“I think for superdelegates, the quality of where the win comes from should matter in terms of making a judgment about who might be the best general election candidate,” said Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s senior campaign adviser.

 

[mrmyth]

It is true blacks are only voting and and voting more because of Obam, but there is nothing wrong with it. Hillary should get more women voter, but she didn't it is her fault. She needs some big wins. I still think she is better than Obama.

I don't want to get into the ethics of it, but its ticking me off that so many people are focusing on the increased black voter turnout as a bad thing. Frankly, people want to see themselves when they look at the world. Black people now have that chance in a big way.

Obama had to win the black vote. Media talking heads like Tavis Smiley were after him early on for skirting the race issue. Bill Clinton did more for black voter turnout than Obama has, who still hasn't directly gotten into race.

 

[Father_Brain]

Awesome opinion piece from Peggy Noonan in the WSJ.



HUAAHAHAHAHAHAAAHHAAHAA

I know that the majority of political OTers despise Hillary, but do you really need to approvingly cite articles from conservative hacks like Noonan and Sullivan?

 

[Cheebs]

Thinking about the polls, though, the fact that there is even a poll in Texas that has him leading means Hillz won't be able to win with the authority she needs to.

ARG polls are complete jokes. I could come up with a more accurate poll than them. I wanna see more, especially from SUSA.

 

[Deku]

Thinking about the polls, though, the fact that there is even a poll in Texas that has him leading means Hillz won't be able to win with the authority she needs to.

pools are too fluid. The texas primary allows indy to vote?

 

[gcubed]

pools are too fluid. The texas primary allows indy to vote?

yes, Texas is a somewhat open primary. Which is why most polls are misleading, i think most released so far have just polled Dem's voting. Independents and switching repubs will most likely go overwhelmingly for Obama

 

[Mandark]

I know that the majority of political OTers despise Hillary, but do you really need to approvingly cite articles from conservative hacks like Noonan and Sullivan?

^

 

[~Devil Trigger~]

Something i just made

 

[Tamanon]

I've done the math, and the only way I can see Clinton winning without superdelegates is to repeal the 14th amendment. That would knock Obama down to 667 delegates.