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Pach-Attack!: Are Nintendo’s Projections Serious?

he is a forecaster! don't expect any forecaster to be right 100% of the time...

you do bash the weather man when its raining, instead of cool and dry!

ONLY IN GAMING ARE PEOPLE THIS IRRATIONAL!
 
New consoles releasing in the coming weeks, I guess it's time for the videogame media anti-Nintendo hate machine to kick it into high gear.
 
We need no more Pach analyses

But you know what we need. Colin Moriarty to make a Ouya set to dominate article where he trashes the WiiU
 
New consoles releasing in the coming weeks, I guess it's time for the videogame media anti-Nintendo hate machine to kick it into high gear.

Let's not start this shit again. Nintendo's handheld division is doing just fine, but it's pretty obvious the Wii U isn't where it needs to be. The world doesn't have it out for Nintendo.
 
Nintendo will meet their projections with Mario. Pach just picks on Nintendo.

I think its more frustration, as he can see errors in their business practises.

most love nintendo, and no one wants them to go away. it would be a sad day if we lost the big N. but they need more 3rd party games, any and all indie games and better online.

i'm frustrated with nintendo, but smash and kart might get me to purchase a wii u along with another price cut :)
 
Nintendo isn't going to sell 8.5 million units more this fiscal year. They're stuck in no man's land - the PS4 & X1 are noticeably more capable and the backlog of entertainment you can get on a 360/PS3 is far more vast than what you can get on Wii U. Iwata is probably going to start feeling some serious heat to resign after the fiscal year closes.

As for SteamOS, it's not just about the games being ported to Linux that will make Steam Machines viable contenders in the market - one of the largest draws of PC gaming is the mod community and it also has to transition. Those are two seriously huge obstacles to overcome if Valve isn't going to be releasing their titles exclusively for SteamOS.
 
It doesn't require a lot of analysis. It's not happening.

True that, hell, it's impossible. Unless they drop the price even more but this won't happen.

...

I say this, but I think it wouldn't even reach the goal with another price drop, it's just straight delusional.
 
Let's not start this shit again. Nintendo's handheld division is doing just fine, but it's pretty obvious the Wii U isn't where it needs to be. The world doesn't have it out for Nintendo.

The media sure does. It's beneficial that they fail to be honest, they get more press that way.
 
I don't think it's controversial to say that Ninty won't meet their projections. I mean would anyone be mad at him if he told people that the sun will rise in the morning? Because that's essentially what he's saying.
 
I don't think Iwata's projections are realistic either, but I'll wait till the holidays are over for a final judgement. If there's one thing you learn in this industry, it's to never underestimate Nintendo.
 
9 million Wii Us?

BHE9znB.gif
 
I don't think Iwata's projections are realistic either, but I'll wait till the holidays are over for a final judgement. If there's one thing you learn in this industry, it's to never underestimate Nintendo.
He said the same thing, wait till after December to make your conclusion.
 
I would believe Iwata if I had the notion that the next Nintendo Direct was all like: here is footage of Mario Kart U, the new Zelda U, new Metroid U, Smash Bros U, New IP U and... they're available for download after the presentation *bow*.
 
These projections almost feel like stalling for time. That's how unrealistic 9M is.

They'd have to do a Nintendo Direct in the next couple weeks that announces near-complete coming-soon games that are so insane everyone would want to rush out and buy the Wii U.
 
So many people are coming out of Nintendo salt mines... Why hate Pachter? While he is speculating, but it's obvious to any rational being that Nintendo done goofed with Wii U.
 
Seeing how Pachter brings back that "Iwata will resign if Operating Profit goal missed" thing makes me wonder if as an analysts he goes through investors Q&A Meetings transcript in detail or just reads headlines in the press. All those who read the transcript when he said it knew that he didn't say it (including people here at GAF) or at best debated about whether or not he implied he will resign.
 
True that, hell, it's impossible. Unless they drop the price even more but this won't happen.

...

I say this, but I think it wouldn't even reach the goal with another price drop, it's just straight delusional.

Iwata is putting on a brave face because it is culturally required of him. I don't think he really believes in these numbers. They were moon beams when they were announced, and then they didn't release a game for six months.
 
Seeing how Pachter brings back that "Iwata will resign if Operating Profit goal missed" thing makes me wonder if as an analysts he goes through investors Q&A Meetings transcript in detail or just reads headlines in the press. All those who read the transcript when he said it knew that he didn't say it (including people here at GAF) or at best debated about whether or not he implied he will resign.

For an industry analyst that covers nintendo (he often stresses that he doesnt cover sony and ms since they are not pure game companies, which i think is bs) he knows shockingly little.
 
Nintendo isn't going to sell 8.5 million units more this fiscal year. They're stuck in no man's land - the PS4 & X1 are noticeably more capable and the backlog of entertainment you can get on a 360/PS3 is far more vast than what you can get on Wii U. Iwata is probably going to start feeling some serious heat to resign after the fiscal year closes.

As for SteamOS, it's not just about the games being ported to Linux that will make Steam Machines viable contenders in the market - one of the largest draws of PC gaming is the mod community and it also has to transition. Those are two seriously huge obstacles to overcome if Valve isn't going to be releasing their titles exclusively for SteamOS.

I was a lurker back when a post similiar to this was uttered about the Wii early on. Didn't make sense then and still doesn't now. I will now quickly demolish this post and any others if need be.

Edit:8.5M it is. Iwata is one gutsy dude. Mario Kart 8 has to be coming out in March early now to meet those numbers. I said WOW.

The Wii U would need to sell 4M between now and March 2014. (Let's adjust that to 4.5M just for the sake of GAF reasons;lol) Pachter says it can't happen but history tells us a different story:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision, Nov. 2009, Xbox 360)
Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo, July 2009, Wii)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo, Nov. 2009, Wii)
Wii Fit (Nintendo, May 2008, Wii)
Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo, Oct. 2009, Wii)
Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo, April 2008, Wii)
Wii Play (Nintendo, Feb. 2007, Wii)
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision, Nov. 2009, PS3)
Halo 3: ODST (Microsoft, Sept. 2009, 360)
Pokemon Platinum Version (Nintendo, March 2009, DS)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
These are the best selling games of 2009. Doesn't anything strike you as familiar?

It's almost a carbon copy of what is available this year.

The Nintendomination is strong with this one.

Now granted the Wii had far more of a userbase then what the Wii U does now but what you most might fail to see is that a certain multiplayer Mario title sold in November took the Wii into the stratosphere. THERE IS NO STOPPING THIS TRAIN.

PS4/Xbone are not competing against the Wii U or even the PC. They are at odds with their predecessors who have hit their strides that will see no end in the forseeable future. The audiences they have been cultivating or stealing (depends on who you ask) will see no value in buying these new boxes because what they have is simply good enough. And with their more dedicated audience quickly adopting they lose customers due to the "highly skilled audience" flooding the market with cheaper alternatives.


"the backlog of entertainment you can get on a 360/PS3 is far more vast than what you can get on Wii U."

And what exactly makes the PS4/Xbone so immune to this same logic? That's a double-edge sword your using. Be careful there!

SteamOS is hot air in a lead balloon. It will go nowhere fast. And by fast I mean, it is time to lower your expectations. QUICKLY
 
The Wii U would need to sell 4M between now and March 2014. (Let's adjust that to 4.5M just for the sake of GAF reasons;lol)
Now adjust it back to 8.5 million because that's the actual number needed.

The rest of your post amounts to 'Wii did it, Wii U will too'. Um, nope. Thought that was clear to everyone by now.
 
Seeing how Pachter brings back that "Iwata will resign if Operating Profit goal missed" thing makes me wonder if as an analysts he goes through investors Q&A Meetings transcript in detail or just reads headlines in the press. All those who read the transcript when he said it knew that he didn't say it (including people here at GAF) or at best debated about whether or not he implied he will resign.

He also said "GTA5 probably the best selling game of all time" (which it's not even close to).

For a guy who is supposed to be immersed in the games business all day he sure makes some strange statements.
 
Now adjust it back to 8.5 million because that's the actual number needed.

The rest of your post amounts to 'Wii did it, Wii U will too'. Um, nope. Thought that was clear to everyone by now.

Not will but can. I don't understand why if something worked before it can't work for Nintendo but if Sony, Microsoft or a 3rd party publisher does it annually throughout a generation its automatically a success.
 
Now adjust it back to 8.5 million because that's the actual number needed.

The rest of your post amounts to 'Wii did it, Wii U will too'. Um, nope. Thought that was clear to everyone by now.
No. 4.5 is the right number.... that's why it's still possible (very hard to achieve but still possible)
 
Chû Totoro;89248627 said:
No. 4.5 is the right number.... that's why it's still possible (very hard to achieve but still possible)

Can you say limited edition Super Mario 3D World bundle? (crossing everything)
 
Forecast is 9m for this financial year.
Less than 5 months left.

Yeah I know but people keep saying that there is 9m to go. 4.5 / 5m is what's left.

It's still possible. Wii U is the only next gen system in Japan : there is a quite good number of games both available and to come while in EU and US I still see some place for decent sales.

Seriously this is far from being a completely unreachable number. November and december are representing a very big share of whole year sales. Don't forget that.
 
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