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Pach-Attack!: Are Nintendos Projections Serious?
- Thread starter Tripon
- Start date
This is another issue I see in these discussions: the 3ds is not meeting expectations either. The Wii U gets the brunt of the lolz because of how pathetic it is doing, but the 3ds has not met Nintendo's expectations ever and will miss again on both hardware and software this year (I think software, too lazy to dig up the numbers).
It is "doing fine" in that it is not cratering and it sells generally well, but it is not a) meeting expectations and it will not b) sell as well as the DS in either hardware or software. You might say, "Well, that's fine." But Nintendo seems to disagree.
I think they know they are not going to reach it, but they will sell a lot this holiday. It is probably some kind of financial/market/investor trick going on. Maybe they didn't want to take the hit on their stock at this point in time?
Edit: Or, they have an ace up their sleeve, but I doubt it.
Edit: Or, they have an ace up their sleeve, but I doubt it.
This does get brought up from time to time in threads like this, but people refuse to believe it. The only place the 3DS can be considered to be doing well is in Japan. In Europe and especially the US it's really underperforming.
I've been thinking about making a thread for a while now about this very subject but I think it will fall on deaf ears. I guess now it's better to wait until after this Christmas to see how the 2DS pans out before posting FYI: The 3DS is not doing Nintendo any favors
razgriz417
Member
Agreeing with Pachter on this one. Seeing as they only sold roughly ~500k in the first 3 quarters, selling 8.5million in the last quarter seems highly unlikely with this much competition for consumer $ this holiday lol
Maybe it's already been posted but I saw a quote where Iwata said the projection was there so that they could work hard toward a goal or something it implied he didn't believe it would be reached. Can't find it though.
Can they still revise it publicly after the holiday season or is there some reason why they can't do it?
Ds numbers were impossible from day 1. The market has changed too much and DS sales were too damn high. There are two sides to this issue, the first is what they might expect or what matters to stock holders and analysts. Not meeting goals certainly isn't good and they don't want that.
On the other hand 3DS is undoubtedly selling very well, it's making Nintendo money and it's doing well market share and support wise. It's definitely helping Nintendo and it's definitely a success even if it doesn't meet their unrealistic expectations.
Can they still revise it publicly after the holiday season or is there some reason why they can't do it?
Ds numbers were impossible from day 1. The market has changed too much and DS sales were too damn high. There are two sides to this issue, the first is what they might expect or what matters to stock holders and analysts. Not meeting goals certainly isn't good and they don't want that.
On the other hand 3DS is undoubtedly selling very well, it's making Nintendo money and it's doing well market share and support wise. It's definitely helping Nintendo and it's definitely a success even if it doesn't meet their unrealistic expectations.
Graphics Horse
Member
They will revise it at the end of January for sure.
I wish if you could find this quote. That's pretty insane for the highest ranking corporate guy to be saying.
I can't find it, I'm on the phone it was in a thread here. Maybe I misread it I don't know, but that's what I got from it. Maybe I dreamt it lol
He didn't say they would 't reach it iirc, just that the numbers were an objective, it sounded like a reach for the stars kind of PR spin.
It's weird either way because I don't know the benefits of this strategy to be honest. Revise now or revise later? It won't meet expectations either way. Maybe he's hoping the holiday season will be good so that when he drops expectations the blow to shareholders won't be so high? Hell if I know.
Edit: or maybe the quote was about the financial target not the wii u sales. My memory isn't what it used to be.
Harlock
Member
Nintendo make grat games. Your hardware has good quality. The problem is everything else. The world are spinning more fast than Nintendo can catch in your businnes model.
Weak online presence, no software linked to online account, high prices, few disccounts, not friendly of lets play people. They should be the Netflix of games, but cant release DS games into 3DS eshop.
Weak online presence, no software linked to online account, high prices, few disccounts, not friendly of lets play people. They should be the Netflix of games, but cant release DS games into 3DS eshop.
shinra-bansho
Member
SW forecast is 80M; FY through Sept is 27M.
I don't really see it happening, even with Pokemon and Monster Hunter. They need to sell over 20M units more than last FYH2. I think they'll probably end up somewhere around 65M, maybe 70M.
Weirdly, having just looked at their forecasts the Wii and NDS ones aren't completely out there like the forecasts for their newer products.
In England you bash the weather man every day.
Not only will it fall on deaf ears, you'll see vehement disagreement.
The numbers tell the tale though. The 3DS is no sales success.
Okay, Vita man.
Wickerbasket
Member
Last I checked, SmokyDave wasn't touting the Vita as a successful product for Sony.
You can like something and still admit it's doing badly.
FUNKNOWN iXi
Member
Iwata smokes weed and wouldn't want to experience an HD F-Zero high?!
THE HELL IS WRONG WITH THIS WORLD!
Apparently, the word champion means something different for me, than for you.
chickdigger802
Banned
Like what that eBay thing the other day shown. $250 could be the magical price for wii u.
Doubt they will actually drop it that low in a year.
Doubt they will actually drop it that low in a year.
opticalmace
Member
It was tongue-in-cheek commentary.
Man, you cats are reliable.
The Vita is a massive commercial flop. It is a sales failure. It is selling terribly. You won't find me saying otherwise.
The Vita is a champion. It got knocked senseless in the first round (and has been taking a pasting ever since) and yet it's still standing.
Fucking champion.
Shhhh, that part is a secret
Spieler Eins
Member
Ironically, the biggest competition will probably be the 3DS. It's just the highly superior Nintendo machine and what the WiiU offers does way too little to differentiate itself from that and the original Wii. (It seems to improve after Donkey Kong, however who knows how many droughts/delays follow before the bigger projects come...)
That's Nintendos target. They said 9m this FY. People need to realise this and stop thinking its LTD.
Let's reiterate.
Nintendo
Are
Saying
They
Can
Sell
9m
Wii U's
From April 2013
To
End of March 2014
I will of course say that they know they can't but they'll revise next quarter.
I'm hoping Iwata sticks to his hinting about resigning if they don't hit 100b and that they don't hit it. I just want to see a Nintendo that's vastly different to what's there now because I've lost almost all interest them. They are getting lazy, unwilling to listen to customers, outdated and for the most part arrogant and narrow minded.
I actually wouldn't lose a lot of sleep if they went under. I'd lament the loss of a once great company but they are far from that now.
But Mario Party! or something
LegendofLex
Member
Hm. Wii U needs to move 8.5 million between now and March?
It's vaguely possible, but not getting Mario Kart/Donkey Kong out by the holidays is going to sting. 3DS moved 10.5 during the same time period, before it ever had a 2D Mario bundle. Of course, it wasn't up against anything like PS4, Xbox One, or 3DS.
I think it's much more likely that they'll make it to 9m LTD, though.
It's vaguely possible, but not getting Mario Kart/Donkey Kong out by the holidays is going to sting. 3DS moved 10.5 during the same time period, before it ever had a 2D Mario bundle. Of course, it wasn't up against anything like PS4, Xbox One, or 3DS.
I think it's much more likely that they'll make it to 9m LTD, though.
I think Nintendo has much higher hopes in Wii Fit U. The original Wii Fit that is what drove Wii sales.
Well they better not be counting on Wii Sports Club which should be called 'Lazy rehash of what you played already'. That game is both rather bland and far too expensive.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
See, this is my problem right here. No. Its not. It is at this point impossible simply due to logistics. Maybe Nintendo have 8 million WiiU's sitting around in warehouses right now (which would explain the losses in part perhaps) but without investing in some crazy new fleet to supply retailers selling WiiU like hotcakes hand over fist all of a sudden, it is not going to happen. And we already know theres no sign of that happening right now.
Especially when for Christmas the only driving force is Mario (and Sonic a little bit I guess?), and then the hazy plans for Jan-March with Donkey Kong and IF Mario Kart makes it in time, you're not going to have the legs of that title to count on by March 31st.
Spieler Eins
Member
I was told from a Wii Fit fan that the new entry is also pretty lacklustre in content. It's also questionable whether the target audience knows what the WiiU is, or knows that there's a new entry that isn't even available at retail for now and even if so, if they wanna get 350 bucks out for it.
I have Wii Fit Plus on Wii and have played Wii Fit U and I agree. WFU is graphically just an uprezzed WFP. It has more online features and things but it's boring looking and reeks of laziness.
Some might bite on the pedometer (I am) but I don't know if there's much new to get people to get a Wii U.
Its essentially a $20 game. I didn't bother to get Wii Fit or Wii Fit plus, but I picked up a Wii Fit balance board for $5 and I'll pick up a pedometer eventually. Because its' $20. I'm sure there's others like me who gives cares enough to might get some more exercise trying it out and throwing $20 at it just to have it one day.
But that works only on people who already have the system, and decided to invest in it.
Frankly, Nintendo should have released this on the regular Wii as well, to recoup their investment.
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
Nintendo's projections are so far off I'm not even sure they could reach them if they were literally giving the Wii U away because I don't think they could even manufacture that many in time.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
This poor damned machine!
Crimsonlink
Member
Looking back at the number I have to agree with your gif LOL.
They might not even hit 1/3 of 9 million at the rate the Wii U is selling excluding the bumps in Japan.
A 1500% percent increase won't help unless it keeps increasing by that amount.
I'm gonna keep on harping until people get it.
6 months remaining, lets say 26 weeks.
About 8.5 million units to sell to hit their target.
8,500,000 / 26 = 326,923 consoles a WEEK needing to sell.
Let's say Nintendo has a killer christmas and sells a whopping 5 million units over November and December (8.6 weeks) roughly.
3.5 million units to sell in the remaining 17.4 weeks.
3,500,000 / 17.4 = 201,149 consoles a week in the other weeks, when it's been selling about 19,000 a week for the last 6 months.
Now, seriously, does anyone really think Nintendo will hit 9 million sold this FY?
6 months remaining, lets say 26 weeks.
About 8.5 million units to sell to hit their target.
8,500,000 / 26 = 326,923 consoles a WEEK needing to sell.
Let's say Nintendo has a killer christmas and sells a whopping 5 million units over November and December (8.6 weeks) roughly.
3.5 million units to sell in the remaining 17.4 weeks.
3,500,000 / 17.4 = 201,149 consoles a week in the other weeks, when it's been selling about 19,000 a week for the last 6 months.
Now, seriously, does anyone really think Nintendo will hit 9 million sold this FY?
opticalmace
Member
More fun question, what games would Nintendo need to hit that mark? Half-life 3, maybe?
Outtrigger888
Member
damn when viewed this way lol
Absolutely a chance if Nintendo announce that before FYE they are releasing a Pokemon MMO as well as SkyRim 2 and Half Life 3, exclusively in combination with a $100 price drop on Wii U with a free packed in iPhone 5s.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I'm thinking maybe 2.5 million worldwide the next 2 quarters. It barely passes the laugh test as I write it, but a lower number seems equally absurd.
Good job, Nintendo.
Minor note of disappointment to this episode: Pachter did not instruct Iwata to stand on a box.
Good job, Nintendo.
Minor note of disappointment to this episode: Pachter did not instruct Iwata to stand on a box.
Nightstick11
Banned
I agree. The 3DS is relatively beasting. But the Wii U does not equal Nintendo.
Ten outta ten. Imagine the meltdowns if this actually happened though.
Crimsonlink
Member
Thats literally impossible but you make it seem possible. It all depends on that magical 5 million for the Winter Holiday sales. I can see Wii U selling 2 million more in Japan and 1 million more in USA but Euro is likely to make the 5 million impossible.
Keeping those numbers back to back for more than 1 week would be an accomplishment in of itself.