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Pachter thinks NX will release in 2017, won't be very good.
- Thread starter Hoje0308
- Start date
Aztechnology
Member
Because they want a controlled environment and it caters to potentially new business plans that can grow their revenue stream. E.G Yearly subscription like Live or PS+. But honestly they are just so damn behind, and even with the revenue lost from fee's they would sell an inordinate amount more games.
I guess it depends on their business plan, but they haven't exactly inspired confidence with their home console division lately.
Not really. As soon as he saw the initial launch sales he flipflopped and said the system would meet it's 5.5 million by march 2013 target.
DICKS AHOY
Banned
I thought that 3DS/Wii U listing leak thing from a month ago already strongly indicated the NX is out this year? Not like it's unheard of for a console to be released the same year it's revealed.
The seeming total lack of knowledge some 3rd-parties have about what the design of it even is isn't exactly promising though. Maybe Patcher knows more about that situation than he's letting on?
The seeming total lack of knowledge some 3rd-parties have about what the design of it even is isn't exactly promising though. Maybe Patcher knows more about that situation than he's letting on?
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
He might be good at his job in general but he's pretty clueless when it comes to videogames.
He also said the 3DS was too cheap at launch.
mocolostrocolos
Member
So, he states he has no idea about NX yet we have 10 pages of chit-chat about Pachter's opinion.
Good job, GAF.
Good job, GAF.
People who buy consoles late in a cycle are not the type of people who will buy the NX at launch. They are usually the casual mainstream who follows the early adopters when the pricing is right.
They wouldn't buy a NX, they will buy a console their friends have.
wowbaggerBR
Member
Yeah, imagine that, an internet forum discussing stuff. We must be crazy.
Only in neogaf...
PapaEmeritus
Member
I said that as soon as i read the title hah
It also doesn't help that investors like him pretty much tell them to leave the market, go mobile or go 3rd party which I don't really like. They're telling Nintendo nothing on what they should do, instead telling the company to quit because investor bubbles want nothing but growth and drive businesses death for their profit. Look how investors want only growth from Twitter, when Twitter could possibly still get good money if they instead decided to improve their network and benefit the users more with a better service. That could drive more people too it. Instead investors want other things and want them to be Facebook.
What I want from Nintendo? Expansion, not to leave the hardware market and instead work on better globalization of the company to produce more types of games so that they can find new areas to market too and be better overall competitively. They make hardware, but at their heart they make video games and software, something I want to see more of on their dedicated systems and not hindered by mobile or by going 3rd party. Pachter and others suggests for them to leave the market or other dumb things of what they should do.
Providing more diversity in software, and also improving the services and communication could bring about more change than them going full mobile or 3rd party. But not many investors are really interested in discussing that, instead they see a new Mario and say "Nintendo hasn't launched with a new Mario since Mario 64, this could be big!" and look at other weird things and predictions based on that. No, New Super Mario Bros. U is not going to cut it you dolts. A 3D Mario epic like Mario Galaxy? Yeah, now that would turn heads, so would a brand new Zelda like the Wii did with Twilight Princess.
Going 3rd party reduces their output and downsizes the company as history has told us a thousand times already with other companies. And 3rd parties partially or fully leaving the market for mobile and consolidating in Japan cause it's where they're making the big money, and it's not good for dedicated systems. Some even burning bridges along the way like Konami. That's not something I want Nintendo to do at all.
So many ask these softball questions too, and it's tiring when there are better questions to ask. Sometimes David Gibson and Takashi Mochizuki ask for suggestions to ask Nintendo and I usually ask about the stuff above.
Nintendo also gets some weird investors too Like that one time there was this one that asked if Nintendo if they would put some gambling mechanics into their games. Games marketed to children. It's weird.
I don't put any stock in what Pachter says because he's usually too obsessed with the forest to see the trees. But I do question this belief that Nintendo is launching something this year, anonymous sources claiming so or no. Nothing about the outlook for the year or how, for example, Nintendo phased out the Wii, would point to that.
But hey off the hop Pachter flat out says he knows nothing about the console, so the nicest thing we can call this is an educated guess.
But hey off the hop Pachter flat out says he knows nothing about the console, so the nicest thing we can call this is an educated guess.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Pack Durr..Complete with spelling his surname as Patcher instead of Pachter
I fear that Pachter is right.
See also the last question on Pacter Facter here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BexEGyu3B9o
I wish we could get a Nintendo that seriously try to go toe to toe with Sony/MS but I just don't think we will.
And I agree with Pachter that 3rd party has been burned too long by Nintendo.
A few weeks ago Pachter predicted that in the long run (soon) consoles will die and the PC be the one to dominate so I would say Pachter can call it like we see it.
See also the last question on Pacter Facter here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BexEGyu3B9o
I wish we could get a Nintendo that seriously try to go toe to toe with Sony/MS but I just don't think we will.
And I agree with Pachter that 3rd party has been burned too long by Nintendo.
A few weeks ago Pachter predicted that in the long run (soon) consoles will die and the PC be the one to dominate so I would say Pachter can call it like we see it.
We're all sort of predicting the death or evolution of consoles. There's no way that PS4 may even reach the heights of the PS2. Everything is looking flat or contracting which is a first for this industry. Things will likely level out to something more stable rather than rapid growth like other industries have gone through. That also means a time for change so the next systems may not even be anything like we know them now.
MS and Nintendo already making plans that are similar to one another. It's a trend I see in the future even Sony may not be able to avoid.
Videogame sales predicttions are his side hustle. No way he would still be in business if it weren't lol
Totally honest question, not bait or anything. What's this dude's track record? I've seen the topics for years and I've read his wiki article etc. I'm just wondering if he should be taken serious at all. I probably should've read a few pages of this thread, but I mean a bigger picture than just current Nintendo.
eyeball_kid
Member
I think the PS4, with its 2016 lineup, will do extremely well this year. What I think we may see in the tea leaves though is that there's no room in the console space for three consoles now, unless one of them becomes a console-lite that's mostly subsidized through distribution of non-gaming content.
If the NX does launch this year, my guess is it will have a very slim lineup of games. I think we would've had more leaks by now if there were a lot of 3rd party developers involved.
Pokemaniac
Member
When talking about Nintendo, he almost always predicts the opposite of what actually happens. Hence:
Not sure how he is on other subjects, but he really just doesn't seem to get how Nintendo is run.
Candescence
Member
Everything official we know about the NX indicates that no, it's not a hybrid, it's a family of systems that share similar architecture and OS. The hybrid nonsense was basically debunked by Iwata ages ago. The most credible rumors don't mention anything about the hybrid stuff either. It's obvious that Patcher is making speculation off of inaccurate information.
Honestly, I'm more partial to looking at patents instead when it comes to indicators of what Nintendo is probably doing with the system. We've seen patented stuff end up in released consoles before, so I'm definately expecting the free-form screen and scrollder buttons (aka the scroll-wheel shoulder buttons). I'm also hoping they noticed the Steam Controller and put a button on each grip, because those things are amazing.
Honestly, I'm more partial to looking at patents instead when it comes to indicators of what Nintendo is probably doing with the system. We've seen patented stuff end up in released consoles before, so I'm definately expecting the free-form screen and scrollder buttons (aka the scroll-wheel shoulder buttons). I'm also hoping they noticed the Steam Controller and put a button on each grip, because those things are amazing.
nephilimdj
Member
MS are not following or making the same plans as Nintendo in any way
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
What are Nintendo plans?
Rhazer Fusion
Member
I agree with Patcher. I think it is a case of too little, too late. They are releasing the NX right when the PS4 and XBox One are hot and are gaining momentum. It's probably not going to be as powerful as PS4 or even XBox One and I doubt third parties, especially the Western ones are going to openly embrace it. Also, if it does come out in 2016, I am not expecting too many games obviously and it will probably be very rushed.
Pokemaniac
Member
They do seem to be going in generally the same direction, but Microsoft seems really reluctant to go all in. Both are making efforts to unify their platforms, though all Microsoft's actually delivered on that front so far are weird half measures.
Iwata outlined that they're wanting to unify their systems and make them "siblings" again like they used to be. And from how things looks, and even the patents suggest upgradeable hardware. Iwata also discussed Apple devices and how they've made their OS and architecture the same across multiple devices to handle backwards and forwards compatibility.
Phil Spencer talked about a similar strategy with Windows 10 and Xbox. They just may not go all in at this moment, but the general direction points to this happening more with future products.
Yeah, at this moment it might just be a half-measure. I still see it happening more as time goes on, especially come next generation when they've straightened things out.
Smiles and Cries
Member
So he doesn't know anything about it, but it won't be very good
how does that happen?
how does that happen?
He's just as clueless as we are about what NX is. Though he's going by old and debunked info like a hybrid console.
nephilimdj
Member
Nintendo wants to unify its users, while MS mainly have just used Xbox as a account system within Live(MSN). I dont think people should think MS PC push is anything new.
New TV out OS thing (Continuum) in there phones for example has nothing to do with gaming, totally business aimed.
Is there any way Pachter being wrong can get him banned like it has other websites on GAF?
Or does being an analyst afford you the ability to spout off any unfounded, unresearched shit you want and not only do you not need to be held accountable, but it still gets posted as "news"?
Serious question, would anyone here EVER invest or not invest in something video game related based on his advice here? I really doubt it based on his record and that's why I wonder why anyone would care about any little opinion he gives about games?
The actual insight I've ever seen him give are based on past data about shipping timing and product orders and numbers, stuff that someone in the industry would know and many people on GAF wouldn't know or care about. That insight are NOT the articles/interviews that get posted here though. It's stuff he knows nothing about, the off-the-cuff bullshit that gets put into print and outlets treat as news for some reason. The quotes in the OP show how little he knows on the subject and his speculation is mostly being pulled out of his ass because of it. He hardly has anymore credibility than any random GAFer.
Unless his name is attached to some Wedbush Securities analysis, there is no reason to publish the random ramblings of this guy.
Or does being an analyst afford you the ability to spout off any unfounded, unresearched shit you want and not only do you not need to be held accountable, but it still gets posted as "news"?
Serious question, would anyone here EVER invest or not invest in something video game related based on his advice here? I really doubt it based on his record and that's why I wonder why anyone would care about any little opinion he gives about games?
The actual insight I've ever seen him give are based on past data about shipping timing and product orders and numbers, stuff that someone in the industry would know and many people on GAF wouldn't know or care about. That insight are NOT the articles/interviews that get posted here though. It's stuff he knows nothing about, the off-the-cuff bullshit that gets put into print and outlets treat as news for some reason. The quotes in the OP show how little he knows on the subject and his speculation is mostly being pulled out of his ass because of it. He hardly has anymore credibility than any random GAFer.
Unless his name is attached to some Wedbush Securities analysis, there is no reason to publish the random ramblings of this guy.
neurosyphilis
Definitely not an STD, as I'm a pure.
And it would flop right out of the gate. If MS couldn't sell the Xbox One for $499 no way in hell Nintendo can sell the NX for that price. It's going to have to release under $350 to compete with PS4.
timmyp53
Member
This comment is a dud.
I do get what you're saying. MS hasn't been very clear on many things. and their PC push in the past has never come to any kind of fruition. It does still make me kind of curious though.
And yet multiple gaming outlets are publishing the story as news and someone decided to make a thread about it.
synce
Member
Can't blame him for not being optimistic about it. The Wii and WiiU had some great games but objectively as consoles they were bleh. Gimmicky controllers, outdated tech, bare-bones online... and local multiplayer was a hassle, trying to figure out which controller was supported and what the buttons did. I'm going into the NX with very low expectations
GhostTrick
Banned
Wiimote was a great controller. Gimmicky ? Come on. It allowed things you wont be able to do with a regular controller. Heck in many ways, it was superior to classic controllers for aiming.
Yup. We're all *hoping* beyond hope the NX brings nintendo back to form but... we hoped that would happen with Wii U, and Wii, and Gamecube. Outside of the Wii hitting the casual audience in some sort of miracle, nintendo has been on a steady decline since its dominance in the SNES era. Nothing nintendo has done indicates that the NX will be what puts them on top of the game or on part with the competition. Odds are, unless nintendo does something truly revolutionary and ALSO has games that everyone wants to play, we're looking at a Wii U 2, if not worse. A more powerful system that plays nintendo games w/ some third party sprinkled in isn't going to be appealing to most consumers out there, unfortunately - I think that's all he's saying. We have no info at the moment so really, the only thing investors can assume is that (for now) we're probably looking at 'just another nintendo system.' That's nothing to get excited about unless you're a nintendo fan.
We can always hope NX is what does it, but Nintendo has shown absolutely nothing so far, so it's safe to assume the worst, not the best, when thinking about investing.
Rabid Dwarf 76
Member
My knife and fork are ready!
Sorcerer
Member
I think when he talks to "us" it doesn't matter if he is wrong or right. He is as clueless as we are. I think his real job is a totally different ballgame and obviously he still has his job so whatever he really does he must be good at it.
Fess
Member
Well, like everyone else who hasn't been visited by a ninja he has no clue about what the console will do or when it will be launched.
Personally I haven't been this hyped about a console unveil and launch in a long time.
It can go either way though, they can be 3 years too late into this generation and bomb like nothing before it or they can be 3 years early to start next generation and make the others stressed to end the current gen, it all depends on what it can do and how powerful it will be. I think this console will show if Nintendo will try to compete to be the leader or if they plan to just keep going alone and a make a new unique product for their current fans.
Personally I haven't been this hyped about a console unveil and launch in a long time.
It can go either way though, they can be 3 years too late into this generation and bomb like nothing before it or they can be 3 years early to start next generation and make the others stressed to end the current gen, it all depends on what it can do and how powerful it will be. I think this console will show if Nintendo will try to compete to be the leader or if they plan to just keep going alone and a make a new unique product for their current fans.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
"I have no idea what this thing is going to be."
"It's going to be bad. "
Lol OK.
Who is this guy and why do his shot in the dark statements keep getting threads and attention?
"It's going to be bad. "
Lol OK.
Who is this guy and why do his shot in the dark statements keep getting threads and attention?
Because the investors he's directly/indirectly affiliated (the people from which he pulls his numbers) are so flip-floppy (investors flip like leaves at the slightest sign of future loss in income/investments) - they re-adjusted their take and so did he - no foul in that approach.
Bottom line: He' not a guru - he's just a fly on the wall.
People like to jump on Pachter because he shits all over everyone's dreams for their respective console, but in reality he is a very good analyst who talks about video games on the side for a hobby. Sometimes he hits, sometimes he misses. It's your choice either to believe or not. For me? I'm taking a wait and see response even though I will agree with him that it's possibly not going to be good just due to how Nintendo's track record has been.
It wholly depends on how you define a "hybrid system". For some, it is a handheld that you can plug in to your TV and play games on the big screen. Iwata pretty much ruled that concept out, though.
However, a concept where handheld and console share the same lineup and use the same medium would also be a sort of hybrid. And that's a likely and popular concept as far as I keep reading on the internet.
Kaiser aus Ubermensch
Banned
mr teaspoon
Member
Yeah I don't get the hatred for him. As you said, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong; he always is interesting and comes across as a nice guy.
Herb Alpert
Banned
He doesn't know any more than we do.