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Patcher on future of console war: the Dreamcast is dead

My guess is that Blu-ray will win in the end, but I don't see how that puts PS3 on a pedestal. If it did, then that would put Wii in dead last, because it can't play current DVD movies!

I'm not sure why he's putting so much faith in Blu-ray carrying the PS3. There are (and will be even more so) other Blu-ray players, believe it or not.
 
"Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36% of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34% and Microsoft finishing third at 30%.
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Not much reason to argue in this thread, unless you only read the title and the bolded part.
 
jarrod said:
Platforms have a habit of continuing on early trends.
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Hmm... The SNES and PS2 disagree with you about that though.
We should remember that SNES wasn't supposed to beat the Genesis in America and that DVD wasn't supposed to do shit for PS2 and it was too expensive to begin with...
 
Alcibiades said:
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16061



basically, he's counting on Disney, Fox, and Sony home video divisions to be the PS3's final kick in the nuts to Microsoft...

nice too see Hollywood get dragged into the next-gen dvd format war... Pretty soon the words of Mike Dunn and Bob Chapek will be folowed more closely than Dyack and Itagaki
Click to expand...

That's funny because even if they win the format war tomorrow, less than 1% of the world will care. I'm sorry, but the format war doesn't decide jack shit this generation. Less than 0.1% (or a number close) of the world even has the equipment to watch HD movies. Maybe if this guy said "Sony might win because they're using a format for their games that has a larger storage capacity" then he wouldn't look like a complete dumbass.

People act like BRD or HD-DVD is going to take off and actually matter to people as soon as one wins. Remember how long it took DVD to get noticed? When DVD first came out everyone already had the equipment to use it, but that's not true with HD formats. It's going to take a very long time before everyone has an HD-TV.
 
The only part of his prediction that reads like pure fantasy is Sony have 40+ percent of the JPN market. PS3+PS2+PSP is being outsold HOW MUCH by Wii+DS? 4 to 1? 5 to 1?
 
jarrod said:
I'd honestly expect the PS360 rumble to turn out a bit like Xbox vs GC. PS3 will have an obvious lead in Japan by virtue of (a weaking) brand strength, while 360 slighty leads western markets thanks to a more western friendly software portfolio and marketing campaign. And both will be trailing the real market leader by a significant margin everywhere.

My outta my ass guesses for marketshare...

NA+EUWii = 52%
360 = 26%
PS3 = 22%

JP
Wii = 78%
PS3 = 18%
360 = 4%
Click to expand...

Wii doesnt sell that much better than PS3 in Europe, if at all... you confuse DSL sales with Wii sales so it seems.

NA+EU right now PS3 already outsells 360. Problem is that it will take a long, long time to catchup to 360...
 
Ok, how about this.

If Wii comes in 1st everywhere.
Sony 3rd in us, 2nd everywhere else.
And MS 2nd in US and 3rd everywhere else.

Who really gained the most?
 
_leech_ said:
36, 34, 30... hmm, that'd actually be ideal as far as competition goes.
Click to expand...

Yep, about as close to a three way split as it gets....soooo awesome.

Alien Bob said:
THE FUTURE OF VIDEOGAMES IS MOVIES
Click to expand...

51QSE5Z3E9L._SS500_.jpg
 
Mojovonio said:
Ok, how about this.

If Wii comes in 1st everywhere.
Sony 3rd in us, 2nd everywhere else.
And MS 2nd in US and 3rd everywhere else.

Who really gained the most?
Click to expand...


MS, because they have the support. We went over this already.
 
Ranger X said:
Hmm... The SNES and PS2 disagree with you about that though.
We should remember that SNES wasn't supposed to beat the Genesis in America and that DVD wasn't supposed to do shit for PS2 and it was too expensive to begin with...
Click to expand...
Uh, how does PS2 disagree with anything... it'd killed off Dreamcast and built up a 10m unit lead by the time GC and Xbox limped to the gates?! PS2 started out a strong first and it's closed out the cycle even stronger.... if anything it's the model example for how early industry momentum works and why PS3 is in serious trouble.

SNES vs Genesis though... Japan was always a foregone conclusion in Nintendo's favor, and what ultimately gave them any notable worldwide lead. Western markets were always a close call (MD/Genesis didn't really start moving serious units until SNES was on market anyway) but SNES won out in the end thanks to SEGA's peripheral distractions and ultimately bailing on the platform to focus on it's successor (Saturn). It was a special case at best though, and not likely to get repeated this cycle.... it's more like then end cycle of Xbox and GameCube, though on a much larger scale.

If Nintendo suddenly stopped all Wii game development and hardware manufacturing, it'd probably start declining too. And PS3 would probably move to lead it.



spwolf said:
Wii doesnt sell that much better than PS3 in Europe, if at all... you confuse DSL sales with Wii sales so it seems.

NA+EU right now PS3 already outsells 360. Problem is that it will take a long, long time to catchup to 360...
Click to expand...
Try waiting until we get outside launch month.... PS3's going to dive in Europe just like the rest of the world. Hell, those leaked UK figures two weeks ago already imply that's happened, trailing both Wii and 360...


Speevy said:
Why are we combining European and NA sales?
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Because that's what Patcher did.
 
_leech_ said:
36, 34, 30... hmm, that'd actually be ideal as far as competition goes.
Click to expand...

Yeah, in any combination that would be pretty ideal.

Even Nintendo at 50% and the other two 25% and 25%.

I think Sony and MS need to compete against each other, otherwise they'll both go to shit.
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
Yep, about as close to a three way split as it gets....soooo awesome.

51QSE5Z3E9L._SS500_.jpg
Click to expand...
Itsatrap.jpg

Also, when will MS and Sony start seeing sustainable profits from this gen? Halo 3 doesn't count unless it contributes to more than one quarter of profitabliity.
 
jarrod said:
Try waiting until we get outside launch month.... PS3's going to dive in Europe just like the rest of the world. Hell, those leaked UK figures two weeks ago already imply that's happened, trailing both Wii and 360...
Click to expand...


In Sony's defense, so far the software sales seem to be holding up, which likely means hardware sales are still doing decently.
 
_leech_ said:
36, 34, 30... hmm, that'd actually be ideal as far as competition goes.
Click to expand...
This whole report is just analyst-speak for "it's a toss up, anything could happen, don't invest too heavily in any of the three." It's basically the same as GAF's continuous refrain of "it's too early to tell".

Except in Japan, where he gives the crown to Nintendo, and rightly so. The Battle for Japan is done, excepting some huge blunders by Nintendo and/or equally huge coups for Sony.
 
Oni Jazar said:
I'd be very happy if the big three were split evenly with 33% each.
Click to expand...
The absolute best scenario. Equality and the competition it brings is what all gaming consumers should be hoping for. The only logic of having a major bias towards a particular console's success or failure would be if you're a stockholder in a particular company. That would be an extremely small percentage of the people here, right? After all, most of us GAFers are just gamers, right?
 
spwolf said:
Wii doesnt sell that much better than PS3 in Europe, if at all... you confuse DSL sales with Wii sales so it seems.
Click to expand...

Wii has outsold PS3 by a whole lot by the numbers we have so far. It outsold it in last week's France numbers too, didn't it?

NA+EU right now PS3 already outsells 360. Problem is that it will take a long, long time to catchup to 360...
Click to expand...

Yea, launch window. You were in no hurry to combine territorial sales for the months where 360 came out over PS3 in JPN+US.

360 obviously wasn't going to sell 800,000 units in Europe last month.



_leech_ said:
36, 34, 30... hmm, that'd actually be ideal as far as competition goes.
Click to expand...

Sounds perfect, and seems pretty likely to boot.

I still think Wii will be top dog, and 360 will be further than that from PS3, but there's nothing to jump at with the given figures.
 
I'm guessing there will be a lot of hybrid players (with good prices) when HDtvs/formart reach mass market...

So IMO hybrid players will be seen as "superior", because they will be playing every movie.. And then the format wars will be forgotten, and PS3 with his inferior HD player won't help anything.
 
There seem to be a lot more 360 owners in Europe than PS3. At least online. I see French, Italians, and Brits on a lot. I wonder how the gaming market in Spain is nowadays? It used to be one of the largest markets in Europe.
 
Oblivion said:
Agreed.
Click to expand...

As the 1up guys went over several months ago, a split market is very bad for 3rd parties. It means that they can't focus on the strengths of any one platform and have to spread their resources thinner. It also means that we remain far away from a unified gaming platform, something that I do think we need if gaming is ever going to truly become mainstream.
 
Alcibiades said:
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16061



basically, he's counting on Disney, Fox, and Sony home video divisions to be the PS3's final kick in the nuts to Microsoft...

nice too see Hollywood get dragged into the next-gen dvd format war... Pretty soon the words of Mike Dunn and Bob Chapek will be folowed more closely than Dyack and Itagaki
Click to expand...

Pretty funny Pachter has the balls to predict marketshare down to the perceentage point, when he couldn't even get monthly console sales within 75% last holiday. What happened to the 500k for Oct?? :lol

I really don't see BR being a huge advantage for Sony, if it wins, MS will obviously replace their HD-DVD addon with a BR one.
 
ElectricBlue187 said:
:lol
Patcher is probably right about this one
Click to expand...

I wonder what the "attach rate" for BD movies is for PS3 console owners. I'd be surprised if it even averaged 0.25 per owner. Hell, that may even be a too big of a number. I do think that BD will win this format war though.
 
EternalGamer said:
As the 1up guys went over several months ago, a split market is very bad for 3rd parties. It means that they can't focus on the strengths of any one platform and have to spread their resources thinner. It also means that we remain far away from a unified gaming platform, something that I do think we need if gaming is ever going to truly become mainstream.
Click to expand...

I dunno. It worked okay back in the SNES/Genny days.
 
The title is a bit misleading. And the article itself is a bit misleading as well.
He pretty much says that the cycle will end in a three-way "tie."
Like he's been saying for quite a while now.
As much as Patcher has said some stupid things in the past (about WoW specifically) he's been mostly right about this gen/cycle so far. He said the Wii would start strong and the PS3 would start slow. Maybe not this dramatically, but, whatever.
 
EternalGamer said:
As the 1up guys went over several months ago, a split market is very bad for 3rd parties. It means that they can't focus on the strengths of any one platform and have to spread their resources thinner.
Click to expand...

As long as major third parties sell just as well as first parties on their respective platforms, this shouldn't be a problem.

Also, the gaming market is expanding.
 
Goddamnit, if I read someone type 'Patcher' instead of Michael Pachter one more time... If you make fun of someone, at least get his ****ing name right or you make yourself look like a ****ing tool! Holy shit at some of the people in here. ****ing annoying.


Parch said:
The only logic of having a major bias towards a particular console's success or failure would be if you're a stockholder in a particular company. That would be an extremely small percentage of the people here, right? After all, most of us GAFers are just gamers, right?
Click to expand...
...

We're fans. We're rooting for our team. Are you regularly going into the fanblock of your local sports stadium, asking people 'Why are you here? why are you rooting for one football team? Do you own stock in the company or something?'

JESUS CHRIST
 
Parch said:
The absolute best scenario. Equality and the competition it brings is what all gaming consumers should be hoping for. The only logic of having a major bias towards a particular console's success or failure would be if you're a stockholder in a particular company. That would be an extremely small percentage of the people here, right? After all, most of us GAFers are just gamers, right?
Click to expand...
Gamers apparently can't do a lick of math to save their lives. Infrastructure costs, duh. Single console > multiple consoles. For supposed gamers, some of us have a fetish for buying extraneous hardware. PEACE.
 
The Jer said:
As long as major third parties sell just as well as first parties on their respective platforms, this shouldn't be a problem.
Click to expand...

But that is a huge qualifier and not many third parties (outside of Ubisoft and EA) can swing it.

Also, the gaming market is expanding.
Click to expand...

True, but so are the number of developers and so is the budget of most titles. I don't think the market is expanding as fast as the budgets are. This is the reason we are probably going to see a very long tail on PS2 development and on DS titles. Because none of these three consoles is likely to come anywhere near the install base of those two platforms.
 
pr0cs said:
oddly enough both Kittowny and Patcher have about the same amount of credibility.
Click to expand...

So where does Pachter lose the most credibility?

1) Movie studios decide console winnner
2) Sony takes first place
3) Sony loses ~50% of marketshare compared to last gen
 
Something I'm curious about is when people think this console generation will be over. The 360 probably has about a five year lifespan, Sony has said they want to go 10 years with the PS3, and the Wii never needs to be replaced because graphics don't matter. There isn't really any single point at which we'll be able to say "okay, it's over, now we can finally look back and see who won."
 
If he's going to make an argument for that perhaps he should mention the fact that Bluray will probably become the preferred medium for storage AND movies, and the next preferred optical medium in computers. I expect Dell to start pumping their mid-range comps with BD in the near future. Apple too. But even when BD is the somewhat-standard in comps., sales of the PS3 will continue to depend primarily on games and secondarily on movies. Those who purchased it primarily for movies did so early, and considering that standalone players with equal or superior playback quality will be available for $600 in a little while...there will be little point for non-gamers to go the PS3 route.

Now I'm not sure what will happen in N.A. but, come on, PS3 in 2nd place in Europe? What are ya people retahded?
 
Alcibiades said:
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16061



basically, he's counting on Disney, Fox, and Sony home video divisions to be the PS3's final kick in the nuts to Microsoft...

nice too see Hollywood get dragged into the next-gen dvd format war... Pretty soon the words of Mike Dunn and Bob Chapek will be folowed more closely than Dyack and Itagaki
Click to expand...

Actually that would be great to basically have the market share split up 30% ..three ways
 
PS360 said:
Now I'm not sure what will happen in N.A. but, come on, PS3 in 2nd place in Europe? What are ya people retahded?
Click to expand...

?????
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
So where does Pachter lose the most credibility?

1) Movie studios decide console winnner
2) Sony takes first place
3) Sony loses ~50% of marketshare compared to last gen
Click to expand...
4) Wii will sell 1.2 million Wiis in NA Dec 06.



:lol @thread title change. Is there anything Pachter can't do?

beermonkey@tehbias said:
People type 'Kittowny' all the time...I know that I used to.
Indifferent2.gif
Click to expand...
That would be acceptable because it alludes to something like Kittowned... or something.
 
I find the idea of HD-consoles having 66% market share by the end of the generation outright insane, even more insane that the stuff about the unsurmountable advantage.

34% is more or less where Wii is right now. To keep it there 360+PS3 have to outsell it consistently 2:1. That is not happening even in the most HD-friendly territory - US.
 
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