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[Owensboro]

From the article:

Some 40% of adults report having a game console, a number that has not budged in five years.

Age Group 18-29 yrs = 56% ownership, Age Group 30-49 yrs = 55% ownership.

"dying".

This report seems useless without numbers for people under the age of 18. If kids in grade school and middle school aren't playing on consoles, then the industry is really screwed. (PS. It seems like younger kids are playing on their cellphones and tablets more than consoles).

Cellphones are still more widespread than smartphones? mind blown

I assume that's because a smartphone is a cellphone, but a cellphone isn't always a smartphone?

 

[NateDrake]

VR is in a super awkward position. The people who really care about VR and will be early adopters are the kinds of people who want to use it on PC. The first five years of the market are going to be...interesting

I'm not sold on VR being a new life bringer. I agree with your comment. A big obstacle to get VR into mainstream appeal will, again, be the price and software. Also, they need an easy way to sell the idea to people by putting the headset on people and showing what VR is and can do. No casual gamer is going to buy a $400 VR headset just to see what it is all about. I fear VR could be the new 3D. Cool concept, too expensive to buy into, and it'll fade away within a couple of years.

My feelings are that the home console market will continue to contract and PC will rise to be the prime AAA game platform of choice, and I'm not a PC gamer.

 

[Raytow]

Flat = dying?

According to the graphs PC is totes dying as well.

 

[PeskyToaster]

Interesting figures. I think it's pretty obvious that ownership is on the decline since we don't have a PS2 or Wii putting up huge numbers. It's weird because I feel games like GTA, Madden, FIFA, and CoD have reached wider audiences than ever but the overall market is contracting. It doesn't seem like these people are finding equivalent experiences in mobile so where are they going? PC?

 

[Bolivar687]

I very much fear for the future of my precious dedicated boxes.

I shudder to think of a future where we cling to our stagnant, homogenized AAA releases, wondering how our hobby became so niche.

If only we would listen to the aging, male Nintendo fans who extol the virtues of family friendly games.

Or the wisened sales Gaffers, who were prescient enough to see how we're being sandwiched between mobile and PCs.

The horror...

 

[WolvenOne]

Mmm, console ownership relative to other devices would have to go down a LOT more then that for console gaming to really die. So I would call this more of a contraction, caused by increased competition from other devices. The net result is that game publishers and developers are going to need to figure out a means to curve their costs downward.

Also, console manufacturers are going to need to consider ways to make the next round of consoles cheaper. With increased competition in the whole electronic entertainment space, consoles are now just one more device among many, and therefore are going to become somewhat more nichey. The best way to combat that is to price consoles aggressively so everyone can own them.

Granted, that means extending the lifespan of the PS4 and XBO a few more years. Keeping console costs down while also making the next iteration of the hardware a significant upgrade will take time. I might also advocate that manufacturers take their time and try to make the next round of consoles, "The final hardware spec." In another 6-8 years we'll be reaching the point where improving visuals is no longer financially viable anyway. So they might as well settle on a hardware spec and focus on creating new controllers, new gameplay experiences, etc etc.

 

[elchebib]

The total sample size that they drew conclusions from is 1907 individuals above the age of 18. Thats a very minute sample of the population (roughly 240,000,000). In addition, they did not sample the younger kids to get a clearer idea of the console ownership in that generation.

Interestingly, they said that the interviews included people aged 16 and 17 years but were not included in the analysis for some reason.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I'm not sold on VR being a new life bringer. I agree with your comment. A big obstacle to get VR into mainstream appeal will, again, be the price and software. Also, they need an easy way to sell the idea to people by putting the headset on people and showing what VR is and can do. No casual gamer is going to buy a $400 VR headset just to see what it is all about.

I agree. I think VR has incredible potential but I'm not sure the time for it is now. Having to pay upwards of $300 for PS VR, in addition to a PS4, is a pretty large amount of money to ask of the average consumer.

I do think VR is going to be pretty huge at some point in the future though. Maybe next console cycle.

 

[Bubba_Sparks]

This is sad if true, and the trend continues. I wonder what the market will look like in 20 years?

When I was growing up it was always a growth market, and it felt like the sky was the limit with what would be next. I remember when the Xbox 360 launched, developers started complaining about development costs and a large number of those who couldn't adapt were forced out of business. It suddenly looked like the technology had reached a ceiling and pushing higher was going to be incredibly difficult. Now when I see NPD threads I notice year over year sales are flat at retail, and though Xbox One and Playstation 4 are selling better than their predecessors the market is still declining on the whole. VR has been touted as the next big thing for gaming, and I fear if it fails to gain traction the market might be in trouble.

I wonder though, if younger people aren't buying games, what are they spending their entertainment money on?

 

[Alo0oy]

Showing no growth is worrying, sure, but saying it's dying is more than just hyperbole. Mobile is showing constant growth every single year, & software revenue for mobile is projected to surpass consoles this year, but the industry is still massive, the console industry is what hollywood is now, higher ceiling than any other gaming platform, but the floor is significantly lower, & the profit margins are much smaller.

 

[Stilton Disco]

So console ownership was higher at the end of last gen when they had sold loads, Kinect had boosted sales to casuals massively and people who didn't own one already could pick a console up cheaply, but now last gen doesn't get many releases and the PS4 is still expensive, fewer people have one.

I'd wait until the PS4 drops to impulse buy prices and VR hits before I'd make a judgement myself.

Also more women own consoles than men? And white people are the smallest racial demographic? Delightful if true, and it would be great if we could pass this information on to the AAA publishers.

 

[level1]

Holy shit.

Spoiler

people still own mp3 players?!

 

[Avid Reading Horse]

The percentage will continue to drop as people ship their Wii Bowling Console to the recyclings.

 

[Dennis]

If I cared enough I would bump all those old "PC is dying" threads and ask: "Who is dying now?".

But I don't.

 

[Neff]

It's not dying, it's just shrinking, fast. The appeal of sitting in front of a glossy game plugged into a TV with a dedicated controller in your hands will never go away, but the industry will change, and is changing, to better meet demands of a smaller audience.

 

[jroc74]

Everyone here will tell you this is BS without even looking at it and cite the Playststion 4, ignoring the rest of the industry factors.

Not really...case in point:

Could this be explained by all the households that used to have a Wii that no longer do? I see this as a lot of casuals, it seems hardcore numbers are stable.

Basically gaming lost a lot of Wii gamers in the period between 2010 and 2015 to facebook and smartphones.

So thanks to the Wii console gaming saw explosive growth....and thanks the the Wii U its seeing a big decline.

Thanks Nintendo!!

For handhelds.....Sony goes from PSP to Vita..

Thanks Sony!!

 

[JP]

PooResearchCentre????

 

[Alo0oy]

Also more women own consoles than men? And white people are the smallest racial demographic? Delightful if true, and it would be great if we could pass this information on to the AAA publishers.

I think you're reading it wrong, the women that own consoles are older than the men that do.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Flat = dying?

Yup, this is a misleading title. It's staying stagnant with population increases, essentially, hovering at 40 percent. There's no statistically significant decline.

However, there is a decline amongst younger gamers so this could turn into dying.

 

[JinjoUnchained]

I used the word dying because as the industry became more and more mainstream, the numbers were not sustained and there is nothing yet released which would suggests the numbers are growing such as smartphones. we often say PCs are are dying and many agree they are, yet when the stats for both are somewhat similar, we use dying for one and stagnant for another

Yeah, it's a semantic point, but I think most people would interpret "dying" as a becoming obsolete with a complete loss of consumer demand.

The way I interpret the charts is that consoles are becoming a mature industry that serve high end customers. Note how Nintendo now refers to their consoles as "premium" products. Again, in my view, they're not "dying" in the sense that they'll be off the market Ina few years, but are becoming more of an enthusiast product.

 

[backflip10019]

1% decline over 6 years.

"Slowly dying."

O.K.

 

[GreyOcelot]

From the article:


"dying".

This report seems useless without numbers for people under the age of 18. If kids in grade school and middle school aren't playing on consoles, then the industry is really screwed. (PS. It seems like younger kids are playing on their cellphones and tablets more than consoles).

exactly. the argument only works if you can prove that 30 years from now the 18-59 demos will take a steep decline because young kids these days don't want gaming consoles.

the other factor they don't really consider is that the percentage of console owners age 50+ is going to increase as time goes on and people who grew up with video games continue to play them at 50+

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

God I wish people wouldn't used the Nintendo wii in the way they do.
Always annoys me.

 

[NateDrake]

I agree. I think VR has incredible potential but I'm not sure the time for it is now. Having to pay upwards of $300 for PS VR, in addition to a PS4, is a pretty large amount of money to ask of the average consumer.

I do think VR is going to be pretty huge at some point in the future though. Maybe next console cycle.

Exactly. If Sony were to launch PS5 in 2020 with PSVR as a key aspect to the console and launched at a competitive price, then it would be a different matter. As an expensive accessory, I'm not so sure. It'll be interesting to watch how the market responds to VR as a whole.

 

[Interfectum]

"dying" lol

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I need a Polygon chart to understand this graph and see the "dying" and "decline" part.

 

[A Link to the Past]

I'm sure you've read this post deeply, considering you responded a minute after it was posted with a straw man argument.

It's not a strawman argument because the post wasn't attributing anything to a specific person. What they were arguing is that people will inevitably make that argument because it always gets made.

 

[Wereroku]

If I cared enough I would bump all those old "PC is dying" threads and ask: "Who is dying now?".

But I don't.

Weren't a lot of those about how dedicated desktop PC's were dying out? I would like to know the split between laptop and desktop because most of my friends have moved to laptops.

 

[LegendofLex]

So thanks to the Wii console gaming saw explosive growth....and thanks the the Wii U its seeing a big decline.

Thanks Nintendo!!

Not really, since it's incredibly likely that this gen will see decline compared to the PS2 generation as well, and decline that's larger than the decline from GameCube to Wii U and GBA to 3DS (and therefore not isolated to Nintendo).

So instead of the decline being "Nintendo's fault," it'll be more true that most of the growth we've seen since the PS2 era is attributable to Nintendo (and Sony actually supporting a vaguely competitive handheld).

 

[jroc74]

Flat = dying?

Showing no growth is worrying, sure, but saying it's dying is more than just hyperbole. Mobile is showing constant growth every single year, & software revenue for mobile is projected to surpass consoles this year, but the industry is still massive, the console industry is what hollywood is now, higher ceiling than any other gaming platform, but the floor is significantly lower, & the profit margins are much smaller.

Agree. iPhone sales appear flat at times...doesnt mean the iPhone is dying. I know its not a good comparison but whatever.

Someone made a good point in a thread recently saying yeah its less sales but the revenue is higher. (wish I could remember the thread...)

Isnt that also something to look at too? Its not all black n white...sales dont tell the whole story.

 

[n00bsauce87]

You have one set of stats for all adults and another set of stats for adults from 18-29. Why separate the data set without explaining why. The only reason I can think of is they want to find out what tech does Millennials get with their disposable income (or get as gifts from parents and friends.

 

[Greddleok]

Dying means dying, not continuing at a steady rate for 5 years. Consoles are doing fine by the looks of things. Even the trailing Xbox One is outselling the 360 in the same time frame.

 

[Interfectum]

What they were arguing is that people will inevitably make that argument because it always gets made.

Neat. So the person takes the thread title at face value and instead of reading further tries to call out future posts about PS4. Seems constructive!

 

[Nameless]

Natural decline + normalizing from the Wii fad = the illusion of dying.

 

[The Albatross]

If I cared enough I would bump all those old "PC is dying" threads and ask: "Who is dying now?".

But I don't.

But doesn't the OP show that PC's and consoles have both declined since ~2010, while smartphones have grown?

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

This is bs just look at the ps4 and then tell me console gaming is dying!

 

[Guymelef]

Natural decline + normalizing from the Wii fad = the illusion of dying.

This, people tends to forget that Wii generation was the exception and not the rule.

 

[patapuf]

Weren't a lot of those about how dedicated desktop PC's were dying out? I would like to know the split between laptop and desktop because most of my friends have moved to laptops.

depends on which dedicated desktops. Dell stuff people only used for mails and the internet are in decline an being replaced by tablets, phones and laptops. Gaming stuff is on the rise.

People still ned them for work

This, people tends to forget that Wii generation was the exception and not the rule.

I always wonder, the exception to what? The PS2 sold more than the wii did, and cumulative numbers of all consoles sold weren't that much higher than the PS2 gen.

 

[jroc74]

Not really, since it's incredibly likely that this gen will see decline compared to the PS2 generation as well, and decline that's larger than the decline from GameCube to Wii U and GBA to 3DS (and therefore not isolated to Nintendo).

So instead of the decline being "Nintendo's fault," it'll be more true that most of the growth we've seen since the PS2 era is attributable to Nintendo (and Sony actually supporting a vaguely competitive handheld).

But if the Vita and Wii U sold better...would be even having this conversation?

IMO both sold poorly due to other factors than just ppl jumping ship to smartphones n tablets.

There's also this:

Natural decline + normalizing from the Wii fad = the illusion of dying.

This, people tends to forget that Wii generation was the exception and not the rule.

If the Wii had stayed on the normal Nintendo home console trend....would we be having this conversation...
If last gen had lasted an average length..instead of the longest ever..would we be having this conversation..

 

[Dennis]

But doesn't the OP show that PC's and consoles have both declined since ~2010, while smartphones have grown?

We can all die together.

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

Natural decline + normalizing from the Wii fad = the illusion of dying.

Was the ps2 a fad?

Not really, since it's incredibly likely that this gen will see decline compared to the PS2 generation as well, and decline that's larger than the decline from GameCube to Wii U and GBA to 3DS (and therefore not isolated to Nintendo).
So instead of the decline being "Nintendo's fault," it'll be more true that most of the growth we've seen since the PS2 era is attributable to Nintendo (and Sony actually supporting a vaguely competitive handheld).

Thank you.

This is sad if true, and the trend continues. I wonder what the market will look like in 20 years?

When I was growing up it was always a growth market, and it felt like the sky was the limit with what would be next. I remember when the Xbox 360 launched, developers started complaining about development costs and a large number of those who couldn't adapt were forced out of business. It suddenly looked like the technology had reached a ceiling and pushing higher was going to be incredibly difficult. Now when I see NPD threads I notice year over year sales are flat at retail, and though Xbox One and Playstation 4 are selling better than their predecessors the market is still declining on the whole. VR has been touted as the next big thing for gaming, and I fear if it fails to gain traction the market might be in trouble.

I wonder though, if younger people aren't buying games, what are they spending their entertainment money on?

They are spending money on different games:
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1116065

 

[Interfectum]

We can all die together.

Gabe already packin his knifes to retire in Hawaii.

 

[Gordon Shumway]

I'm sure you've read this post deeply, considering you responded a minute after it was posted with a straw man argument.

He said, a minute after the thread was posted.

lol..damn.

 

[Little Nemo]

I'm surprised that women have higher ownership % than men.

Same here. That's what stood out to me most.

 

[LordOfChaos]

Males, and white people less likely to own a console than females and other racial groups? That's odd. One gets the impression the whole market is skewed to them.

 

[redcrayon]

Was the ps2 a fad?

I don't see anyone buying a PS2 now, do you?

 

[patapuf]

If the Wii had stayed on the normal Nintendo home console trend....would we be having this conversation...

Without the wii fad consoles would have been dying a gen sooner

I think sales totals would have been lower than PS2 gen wouldn't they?

 

[Guymelef]

Was the ps2 a fad?

You can find PS2 users between PS3 and X360 numbers.

 

[WolvenOne]

Holy shit.

Spoiler

people still own mp3 players?!

Honestly, if I were the slightest bit better off I'd own own solely for gym work. Just, because I don't like the idea of accidentally destroying a 400USD phone with a dumb-bell.

 

[FZZ]

People really really really really underestimate the appeal of mobile. Especially on GAF.

What I will say though is wait until VR and NX are out to have a clearer picture.