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[jroc74]

Without the wii fad consoles would have been dying a gen sooner

I think sales totals would have been lower than PS2 gen wouldn't they?

You sure? Remember when we do hypotheticals about the Wii...lets not forget that if the Wii had sold a lil less than the Gamecube...whose to say some of the other sales the Wii did get wouldnt have went to PS or XBox...

All this hypothetically speaking of course.

 

[LegendofLex]

But if the Vita and Wii U sold better...would be even having this conversation?

IMO both sold poorly due to other factors than just ppl jumping ship to smartphones n tablets.

Well, there was no universe where Vita prospering was going to counteract the DS-3DS decline, and even if Wii U did Wii numbers PS4 and Xbox One would still probably not quite get to Gen 7 numbers (which is the bar to pass for non-Nintendo consoles competing in Gen 8 if they want to register growth for their market).

Still won't change that PS3 and Xbox 360 added virtually zero to the size of the console market (Xbox + PS2 install base is very close to Xbox 360 + PS3 install base.) despite dramatically larger costs and a longer generation. It's also worth considering that console failure rates were pretty high up there last gen and this almost certainly factors into the overall ship numbers.

PS4 and Xbox One, while being more profitable because they were never being sold at crushingly high prices, will probably fare even worse. PS4 is going to be an obvious winner this gen, though, and might even beat PS3's solo numbers if Sony keeps up cannibalizing the Xbox 360/Wii hardcore audience.

 

[bomma_man]

You can find PS2 users between PS3 and X360 numbers.

Casuals didn't buy the PS2?

 

[RSTEIN]

Consoles are dying in that they are stagnant while alternative devices (hardcore PC, ipad/iphone) are growing nicely. In other words console industry's mindshare/marketshare is falling.

 

[Spookie]

This is only the US though. Can't really sign off an entire industry because of one location when you're completely over looking new developing markets.

Russia is a huge expanding market only Valve bothered to tap in to and makes mega bucks off them.

 

[Nanashrew]

Natural decline + normalizing from the Wii fad = the illusion of dying.

This, people tends to forget that Wii generation was the exception and not the rule.

Casual market market goes back and forth between systems generation to generation. PS2 didn't get 100+ million userbase by just the hardcore enthusiasts alone. Without the casual market we see less growth, less chances to turn them into future gamers and the stagnation we see now leads into contraction.

Last generation was probably the healthiest for the 3 manufacturers with no clearly defined "winner."

 

[LegendofLex]

This is only the US though. Can't really sign off an entire industry because of one location when you're completely over looking new developing markets.

New developing markets don't tell you shit about the long-term health of the industry, though. Only that you can now sell in places you weren't selling before.

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

You can find PS2 users between PS3 and X360 numbers.

That doesn't answer my question.

Casuals didn't buy the PS2?

Is that he/she is implying? Seems silly.

 

[Pancake Mix]

I always wonder, the exception to what? The PS2 sold more than the wii did, and cumulative numbers of all consoles sold weren't that much higher than the PS2 gen.

PS3 80+ m
Xbox 360 80+ m
Wii 101 m

So 261+ million

PS2 155 m
Xbox 24 m
GC 22 m
DC 9m

Vs. 210 million. So about a 20 percent increase without us even having final PS3 or Xbox 360 numbers.

 

[patapuf]

You sure? Remember when we do hypotheticals about the Wii...lets not forget that if the Wii had sold a lil less than the Gamecube...whose to say the other sales the Wii did get wouldnt have went to PS or XBox...

All this hypothetically speaking of course.

I thought the premise of "the wii doesn't count" was that the people that bought it were "non gamers that left for phones" an thus they "don't count".

If Wii sales just went to 360 and PS3 the whole "fad" narrative doesn't work.

Also people need to realise that a huge amount of PS2 buyers were also a more casual audience. If those people are gone for good the market did shrink. No way of arguing around that.

PS3 80+ m


Vs. 210 million. So about a 20 percent increase without us even having final PS3 or Xbox 360 numbers.

Exactly, 20 percent increase. I fail to see the huge anomaly of the Wii. Unless people think the "core" console audience has been stagnant for 15 years.

 

[lyrick]

This is only the US though. Can't really sign off an entire industry because of one location when you're completely over looking new developing markets.

Russia is a huge expanding market only Valve bothered to tap in to and makes mega bucks off them.

I always assumed in the past Sony utilized the developing markets to create exceptionally long tails for their consoles. I think this is the first time Sony launched in what was classically their "years later" strategy.

 

[Alo0oy]

Males, and white people less likely to own a console than females and other racial groups? That's odd. One gets the impression the whole market is skewed to them.

Same here. That's what stood out to me most.

Guys, I think this is the average age for each demo.

 

[jroc74]

I thought the premise of "the wii doesn't count" was that the people that bought it were "non gamers that left for phones" an thus they "don't count".

If Wii sales just went to 360 and PS3 the whole "fad" narrative doesn't work.

Also people need to realise that a huge amount of PS2 buyers were also a more casual audience. If those people are gone for good the market did shrink. No way of arguing around that.



Exactly, 20 percent increase, i fail to see the huge anomaly of the Wii. Unless people think the "core" console audience has been stagnant for 15 years.

I changed it to some sales while you were posting. In my hypothetical I dont believe all Wii sales woulda went to PS3 and 360 hence my changing it but Move and Kinect did pull some folks. Especially with how MS was pushing Kinect so much.

 

[Nodnol]

Did the Wii not scew things massively? Every "casual" that bought a Wii that would have never ever entertained the notion of buying a console, has now moved on to Candy Crush and Angry Birds. Purely anecdotal I know, but I wouldn't be suprised if that was a common occurrence.

I wonder, ironically, if the future of a home console is being more than "just" a console.

 

[Alo0oy]

I always assumed in the past Sony utilized the developing markets to create exceptionally long tails for their consoles. I think this is the first time Sony launched in what was classically their "years later" strategy.

This gen is different, the developing markets have more disposable income now & decided to buy the PS4 instead of buying the last gen console, that's why the PS4 is selling unusually high despite mediocre US/Japan sales.

 

[LegendofLex]

Exactly, 20 percent increase. I fail to see the huge anomaly of the Wii. Unless people think the "core" console audience has been stagnant for 15 years.

I've always been really curious to see what each console's install base would look like if you corrected for people who buy multiple/replacement units. I get the feeling last gen was pretty inflated by issues like RROD, PS3 slim model, etc.

 

[AstroNut325]

Where are people going for their gaming time? Smartphones? It looks that is also hitting some sort of saturation point.

 

[LUXURY]

Cellphones are still more widespread than smartphones? mind blown

Yeah. That doesn't surprise me. A lot of the older generation doesn't see the need for a full blown smartphone. An older flip phone works for them.

 

[Inuhanyou]

A contraction doesn't mean something is dying, it means its contraction. I'd say a stabilization has occurred recently.

Smartphones and PC usage have grown due to games being more palatable now more than ever on those platforms, doesn't mean it eats console sales already around.

 

[KingV]

I wonder how much the Wii affects this. Obviously that was a huge outlier in terms of mass appeal that hasn't been replicated in the current gen.

 

[papo]

Of course gaming is going down, we now partake in console spec bragging more than we game...

But seriously it really doesn't surprise me at all. I'm sure it's not exactly a bad thing or something to worry about in coming years since the next gen will come and it will still be popular. It's just the way things go I guess.

 

[Alo0oy]

I wonder how much the Wii affects this. Obviously that was a huge outlier in terms of mass appeal that hasn't been replicated in the current gen.

Looking at that graph, not much?

 

[mcz117chief]

Cellphones are still more widespread than smartphones? mind blown

I don't have a smartphone and I don't plan to get one, I would have no use for it.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

It's not dying, it's contracting. There's a difference and it was bound to happen after last gen was so inflated by the Wii and the abnormally high amount of marketshare both Xbox 360 and PS3 gained.

 

[alexandros]

Slowly, huh? That's ok, I am a patient man.

 

[lyrick]

I wonder how much the Wii affects this. Obviously that was a huge outlier in terms of mass appeal that hasn't been replicated in the current gen.

Why are you assuming that the Wii is not being counted in this poll?

Unless the actual questions asked said otherwise, It's probably best to assume that owners of any of the Gen 7 & 8 consoles (possibly even earlier) were counted as owners in this data.

 

[jroc74]

PS3 80+ m
Xbox 360 80+ m
Wii 101 m

So 261+ million

PS2 155 m
Xbox 24 m
GC 22 m
DC 9m

Vs. 210 million. So about a 20 percent increase without us even having final PS3 or Xbox 360 numbers.

Hypothetical time:

Right now change Wii numbers to lets say 15 million (if it woulda stayed on the trend of Nintendo home consoles vs the previous one) ...and tack on 20 million each to PS3 and XBox.

Lets add 30 million each to PS3 and 360 while we at it.

Either way it woulda been growth but not 261+ million.

All I'm saying is last gen as a whole was an anomoly.

Comparing last gen to other gens woulda been easier if the Wii didnt explode the way it did. It did, great for Nintendo. But with the Wii U going in the same trend before the Wii...we have to look at other factors than just aaww consoles are dying...

 

[mclem]

Flat = dying?

Given costs are rising, flat might as well = dying.

 

[Tevos]

A 1 point decline does not mean it's dying.

 

[Alo0oy]

Given costs are rising, flat might as well = dying.

Higher digital sales percentage + DLC + microtransactions is more than making up for that. Almost every big publisher is showing revenue & profits growth this gen.

 

[lyrick]

A 1 point decline does not mean it's dying.

the decline is seen in the 18-29 year old trend

2010 - 62% ownership
2013 - 71% ownership
2015 - 56% ownership

 

[LegendofLex]

Hypothetical time:

I hope you understand that this is a really foolish way to talk about markets. For all we know, subtracting the Wii effect would have made Xbox 360 and PS3 sell even worse because the energy around gaming would have been lessened.

Comparing last gen to other gens woulda been easier if the Wii didnt explode the way it did. It did, great for Nintendo. But with the Wii U going in the same trend before the Wii...we have to look at other factors than just whoopie console are dying...

Given that Nintendo's market focus with Wii U has been in the same place that it was before Wii, I'm not sure we can look at the Wii U decline and say that Wii was an anomaly in the market trend rather than an anomaly in Nintendo's market acumen. (Remember, Nintendo made the Wii because they anticipated market-wide decline.)

 

[Alo0oy]

the decline is seen in the 18-29 year old trend

That decline is not significant enough to call "dying".

 

[Interfectum]

the decline is seen in the 18-29 year old trend

What happens when/if that number goes up in 2016? Still dying?

 

[Dangansona]

What the hell is happening to ebook readers?

 

[Interfectum]

What the hell is happening to ebook readers?

tablets and big phones killing them I'd assume

 

[lyrick]

That decline is not significant enough to call "dying".

"dying" is exaggerated, though a decline of 15 percentage points in 2 years is pretty significant.

 

[Madao]

according to the chart, only the E-book reader is actually dying. the rest are flat or increasing.

Spoiler

plus, they're tracking from 2010 and forward on consoles. the Wii had already died quite a bit by then.

 

[Dangansona]

tablets and big phones killing them I'd assume

That's a shame if true, because e-ink readers are a way better experience than an iPad.

 

[mclem]

Higher digital sales percentage + DLC + microtransactions is more than making up for that. Almost every big publisher is showing revenue & profits growth this gen.

In the case of individual games, maybe. Across the board, though? There's not *more* money in the industry, it's just more money being spent individually on fewer titles.

 

[Draft]

Wait until the Final Fantasy 7 remake.

 

[Randomizer123454444]

Gaming is more popular than ever. If consoles are going away, it'll be because something better has taken their place.

A mobile device that has power of a desktop, and can stream an AAA game from your pocket to the screen of your choosing. Take up your wireless controller and enjoy the gaming experience.

Yeah my vision isn't happening in next 10 years. But in 20? Who knows what'll happen.

In the case of individual games, maybe. Across the board, though? There's not *more* money in the industry, it's just being split across fewer products.

I dare to claim that Steam and rise of the indie makes that a false statement. I have played more indie games in last year than I have played AAA games.

On consoles? Perhaps you are right. In industry? No.

 

[maquiladora]

RIP

 

[Interfectum]

"dying" is exaggerated, though a decline of 15 percentage points in 2 years is pretty significant.

It's hard to tell anything from those two numbers until we get more data. That could also be a result of last gen consoles getting tossed and people not getting into current gen yet due to whatever issue (lack of interest, price, not the right game, etc). If it dips into the 30s or 40s in 2017 or 2018 then we can talk about dying.

 

[jroc74]

I hope you understand that this is a really foolish way to talk about markets. For all we know, subtracting the Wii effect would have made Xbox 360 and PS3 sell even worse because the energy around gaming would have been lessened.

The energy around gaming....where last gen as a whole is the first time in years... probably ever... that the difference between 1, 2, 3 was so close. To me that says the energy was fine...especially with PS3 and XBO having yet to be discontinued and still selling ok after current gen launched and still have games made for and selling ok on last gen. Last gen is dying off....but their decline didnt came as soon as the Wii's.

Given that Nintendo's market focus with Wii U has been in the same place that it was before Wii, I'm not sure we can look at the Wii U decline and say that Wii was an anomaly in the market trend rather than an anomaly in Nintendo's market acumen. (Remember, Nintendo made the Wii because they anticipated market-wide decline.)

If we read charts, graphs like we all like to.....the Wii sure looks like an anomaly to me.

And if Nintendo's market focus was in the same place as it was with the Wii:

It woulda been called Wii 2 and still had Wiimotes and nunchucks as main controllers. IMO.

 

[Little Nemo]

Guys, I think this is the average age for each demo.

I don't think so. It only mentions percentages. And I doubt the average age for female owners is 42.

 

[Alo0oy]

"dying" is exaggerated, though a decline of 15 percentage points in 2 years is pretty significant.

Which is closer to the percentage in 2010, there's not enough data to call this a trend at all.

 

[GodofWine]

If the overall ownership rate is flat over 40% or so, growth from a percentage has stopped, but over the past 5 years population growth would account for (guesstimate) 4,000,000 more consoles than before.

 

[Auto-Reply]

Gaming is more popular than ever. If consoles are going away, it'll be because something better has taken their place.

A mobile device that has power of a desktop, and can stream an AAA game from your pocket to the screen of your choosing. Take up your wireless controller and enjoy the gaming experience.

Yeah my vision isn't happening in next 10 years. But in 20? Who knows what'll happen.



I dare to claim that Steam and rise of the indie makes that a false statement. I have played more indie games in last year than I have played AAA games.

I believe we will all be surprised how fast mobile technology will catch up, in 5 years we will look dumbfounded at the capabilities of smartphones. .... but don't quote me on that

 

[Alo0oy]

I don't think so. It only mentions percentages. And I doubt the average age for female owners is 42.

In that case, color me surprised, maybe people should stop with the "only males play dedicated games" rhetoric.