Support NeoGAF

[More_Badass]

I believe we will all be surprised how fast mobile technology will catch up, in 5 years we will look dumbfounded at the capabilities of smartphones. .... but don't quote me on that

Mobile devices already can handle Unreal Engine 4, Unity 5, and Cryengine

 

[MisterSamMan]

Console gaming is slowly dying just like a healthy person is also slowly dying.

It's going to take a long time.

 

[Catdaddy]

Fuck, I haven't finished Assassin's Creed Syndicate yet...

 

[Terrell]

The mistake that this study makes is that it's only looking at hardware. Anyone worth their shit knows that for the console gaming industry, success is measured in software sales. Hence why software attach rate is a huge deal in this market.
Console sales could crater in half, but if software sales are up, it matters little, since software is where the major bulk of the money is made.

It's not a high-margin hardware business we're talking about, compared to basically every other market it was measured against by Pew Research.

This isn't to say that hardware can't be used as a metric, just that it's not a metric one can use to accurately measure growth in the industry.

It's the same mistake people will make (if they aren't making already) when discussing the smartphone market. All those devices don't mean anything if the software attach rate slips, because it will show that people buying the devices aren't buying apps in the same numbers and the market for someone other than the hardware manufacturer to actually make money on has decreased.

Heck, people talking about smartphone growth when speaking purely in total app sales/revenue are already making a mistake, because it doesn't measure median growth potential. Japan's app market looks healthiest of all until you realize that over 50% of the revenue growth is centred entirely around 2 apps.

 

[TaterTots]

I would say it's on a very slow decline. Its become easy to play games on a phone or tablet. If there was a decent sized tablet that could play demanding games I probably wouldn't on a console.

 

[Storm Kyleis]

Stagnant is the correct word.

This generation will be remembered for nothing, hardware-wise. It's the least innovative, most unexciting generation of dedicated gaming devices, while everything else is evolving at a furious pace.

 

[Jeremy]

We'll all ride it to the bitter end and get to say we were there!

 

[Josh7289]

Wouldn't that drop in consoles be accounted for almost entirely with the drop in handheld console ownership? Home consoles seem to be pretty stable, while smartphones are likely eating away at the handheld console market in the US.

 

[Sword Of Doom]

Have some 10 or so nieces and nephews among my giant ass family.
Every single one of them loves a tablet or phone of some kind and rather than play on my older consoles or newer handhelds they'd rather play on a phone/tablet.

Just a sign of the times, it's much easier for parents to hand them a tablet and they do way more on them than they would on a DS for instance. They get to play games and mess around on youtube. Next generation of kids are gonna be interesting.

We might hate touch controls For games on phones and tablets but young kids who can't use a controller can easily play simple touch based games. It's why the Wii was so brilliant. My little nephew can't play with a controller but can use the Wii remote and loves it.

 

[newjeruse]

We'll all ride it to the bitter end and get to say we were there!

Yup. Like Wee-Bey told Delonda: I'll never cut you off consoles, you'll always have me. But I'm a dying breed.

 

[AstroNut325]

I believe we will all be surprised how fast mobile technology will catch up, in 5 years we will look dumbfounded at the capabilities of smartphones. .... but don't quote me on that

So you're expecting people will play CoDs, Maddens, Halo's and Uncharteds on mobile devices? Or you're saying that experiences on mobile devices will negate the need for full fledged consoles?

 

[NoPiece]

From the article:

"Some 14% of U.S. adults have a portable gaming device such as a PSP or Sega Genesis game player..."

Ladies and gentlemen, the Sega Nomad!

Also, the headline/OP is confusing stagnant with "dying". The same article describes how smart phone usage is reaching saturation with young adults, but doesn't say that it's "dying" with that group, implying that they know the difference and are trying to advance a narrative.

IOW the stats are interesting, the headlines are misleading. It would be better to say "Survey reports no growth in dedicated consoles over the last 5 years"

Questioners are clearly targeting WalMart video game shoppers.

I do wonder if some of the decline in the Handheld market is because of the poorly worded question. They note in the detailed report that the question wording used to be "P-S-P or D-S". They dropped DS and subbed in Sega Genesis Gameplayer for 2015 - obviously nongamers writing the survey.

 

[Auto-Reply]

So you're expecting people will play CoDs, Maddens, Halo's and Uncharteds on mobile devices? Or you're saying that experiences on mobile devices will negate the need for full fledged consoles?

I have no idea whats going to happen, but the possibility for all of that grows stronger the more advanced this tech gets. If there is potential someone will tap into it eventually. Soon the only differentiator are controllers... maybe that's not even true anymore and you can already use your controller with your smartphone and your tv, I don't know.

I don't think this is a wild idea anymore. And demographics being completely different could mean less than we think, this could change over time.

Last thing I've read was that battery power consumption is the big problem , if they somehow manage to improve that significantly the computational power of mobile devices will make a huge jump forward.

Whatever Nintendo is doing at the moment, expect Microsoft and Sony to watch closely what they do with mobile integration, whatever it may be. Maybe we are able to use our existing controllers and log into PSN/Xbox Live on our phone in a year? I'm not seeing mobile domination / the death of stationary devices as it was proclaimed a few years back by some anytime soon but I don't think it will take 10 years to have a visible effect on it.

 

[jblank83]

Contraction is not death.

A healthy market does not need year on year growth and record profit margins.

Only stock driven corporations need that.

 

[Script]

hmmm 1% decrease over 6 years...sooo it'll be dead when im 240 years old, I think I can live with that. Also everything dies at some point PC gaming is also slowly dying, and so is mobile gaming, when they'll die though noone knows but i guarantee at some point they'll die.

 

[TheFatMan]

I honestly have never understood why people think cellphone gaming is going to replace consoles. Will sales dip? Yeah probably.

But no cellphone is going to replace a TV and a controller. You'll never convince me. We will be playing Consoles for another 30+ years.

 

[Japanmanx3]

This is BS, just look at the PS4. I won't even bother citing industry factors.

 

[viHuGi]

I'm here laughing at those stats, seeing Ps4 and Xbox One kicking ass and games like GTA V selling 60m copies.

Keep bringing those so I can keep laughing haha

 

[GillianSeed79]

I'm here laughing at those stats, seeing Ps4 and Xbox One kicking ass and games like GTA V selling 60m copies.

Keep bringing those so I can keep laughing haha

Just because the new consoles, at least one of them, are selling well and one game sells 60 million copies doesn't mean the console industry is healthy. At the end of this generation, there will be less consoles sold compared to last gen and the only other game that will sell close to 60 million copies again in the near future is GTAVI in 6 years.

 

[SparkTR]

I'm here laughing at those stats, seeing Ps4 and Xbox One kicking ass and games like GTA V selling 60m copies.

Keep bringing those so I can keep laughing haha

Not siding with any part of the argument here, but citing GTAV sales doesn't really indicate much for the industry as a whole. 2013, the year where GTAV broke all those sales records, was a particularly bad year in terms of software sales for the industry if I remember right. And obviously having less consoles sold this generation by a significant amount (100m?) is going to pay a toll on consumers mindshare.

 

[kyser73]

Someone on this thread should let Intel know their main market for CPUs isn't in long term decline, I'm sure they'll be happy.

 

[KingV]

Just because the new consoles, at least one of them, are selling well and one game sells 60 million copies doesn't mean the console industry is healthy. At the end of this generation, there will be less consoles sold compared to last gen and the only other game that will sell close to 60 million copies again in the near future is GTAVI in 6 years.

Aren't both Xbox one and ps4 currently outpacing their predecessors?

 

[RealityCheque]

So, at 37-41% maybe console gaming has reached the maximum amount of people it can?

I'd think that's pretty good market penetration given that, gasp, not everyone likes videogames.

Ownership of the console is one metric, I'd be very interested to see how the overall attach rate for games has performed in the same time.

 

[djtiesto]

Cellphones are still more widespread than smartphones? mind blown

I was under the impression that smartphones were a subset of cellphones in that graph.

 

[UnemployedVillain]

Mobile devices already can handle Unreal Engine 4, Unity 5, and Cryengine

Haha this is kind of disingenuous. Support of middleware is more a question of if the HW has the required featureset moreso than if it's strong enough nowadays. Supporting those don't mean they can run all games using those. Not remotely close and definitely not at the level of consoles or even approaching them.