Pretty much. Gamblers love to tell you about how they are up $5000...until they are asking to borrow $3000 because they are in deep shit.
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Please help convince this poor soul not to gamble using a "system"
- Thread starter protonion
- Start date
Pretty much. Gamblers love to tell you about how they are up $5000...until they are asking to borrow $3000 because they are in deep shit.
Transistor
Banned
This is 100% how a gambling addiction starts
LordGorchnik
Member
BRB guys going to the casino, OPs got it all figured out!
FUCK HOW COULD IT GO SO WRONG!?
Earthbound64
Banned
Technically that's a tetrahedron.
You, you're a tetrahedron.
Or they win $5000, and lose it all, and go "Oh well, at least I didn't lose any money."
No - you had $5000 and lost it, so you lost $5000. The fact that you didn't start with $5000 doesn't change the fact that you had it and could have kept it, but instead lost it.
SallyIsNow
Banned
Well I feel dumb.The money you have right now is money you have right now.
If you lose anything to go below what you have right now, you have lost money.
You cannot beat the house. Gambling establishments make money purely because of the house advantage.
If you gambled and made money, you got lucky. That's all. Leave with your winnings while you can and never look back.
If you keep gambling in an establishment that is statistically rigged against you (and they all are, because that's how they make money), you will absolutely, positively lose more money than you win in the long run.
If you gambled and made money, you got lucky. That's all. Leave with your winnings while you can and never look back.
If you keep gambling in an establishment that is statistically rigged against you (and they all are, because that's how they make money), you will absolutely, positively lose more money than you win in the long run.
This is especially important if you are poor. If you cannot afford to lose money, STAY AWAY FROM GAMBLING.
Earthbound64
Banned
No worries - at least you didn't lose any money.
Lonewulfeus
Member
He wasn't running casinos, he was running money laundering establishments.
CASH
OUT
NOW
Calculate the odds. you'll notice you've had a really good run.
That is unlikely to keep going.
DO NOT RE-STAKE EVERYTHING YOU'VE WON.
At least keep half.
Yeah, but casinos have other expenses except paying out winnings.
OUT
NOW
Calculate the odds. you'll notice you've had a really good run.
That is unlikely to keep going.
DO NOT RE-STAKE EVERYTHING YOU'VE WON.
At least keep half.
Yeah, but casinos have other expenses except paying out winnings.
Allforce
Member
I say let it ride OP, I mean you've got a system and it appears to be working. Why quit now?
If you had said you had a system for like blackjack or roulette then yeah, you're crazy and going to go broke. However there's plenty of people who make a living betting on sports. That's about the only type of gambling that is at least somewhat out of the casino's control.
If you had said you had a system for like blackjack or roulette then yeah, you're crazy and going to go broke. However there's plenty of people who make a living betting on sports. That's about the only type of gambling that is at least somewhat out of the casino's control.
Naw dog. When gambling entities lose money its creative bookkeeping. Every time.
I used to work for one that constantly claims poverty. I have some knowledge of this stuff.
Even this was MUCH MUCH easier pre-internet. You could get some info on a bad line on a D3 college basketball game and stuff like now. Now, everyone knows everything about everything. Much much more difficult to get an edge against the house these days.
Earthbound64
Banned
If you have "a system" to roll a 6 on a dice which involves blowing on it and saying some special words, and you roll a 6 twice in a row, do you conclude "you've got a system and it appears to be working. Why quit now?"
shawnbuddy
Member
I kinda feel like the OP might be falling for The Gambler's Fallacy. In truth, whatever you system you use the odds are going to stay the same, you'll never figure out a way to generate "heat."
Why is it always the poors that waste their money like this? I pass in front of a betting locale every time i go to work and it's depressing.
If it were for me i'd make gambling illegal. It's essentially a way for the rich to steal money from the poors, bunch of garbage.
Put your money in a bank or in a high risk fund if even. You have much better chances of gaining more money.
If it were for me i'd make gambling illegal. It's essentially a way for the rich to steal money from the poors, bunch of garbage.
Put your money in a bank or in a high risk fund if even. You have much better chances of gaining more money.
Allforce
Member
Because he's not playing craps? It's not really a game of chance he's developed this system for, it's professional soccer. He obviously has some vested interest and knowledge on the participants, at least enough to know as much as the house does regarding the favorites and underdogs.
I mean yeah, gambling can be dangerous if you're putting down thousands on roulette and hoping to hit 00 or playing craps all night and getting a hot hand and thinking you're unbeatable. But betting on sports at least has some research involved and variables that are out of the house's hands.
Earthbound64
Banned
That's nice and all, but:
That has nothing at all to do with the clubs involved or "strategy" or anything - it's purely about "numbers."
Once I was hooked to playing the casino in a MMO (using virtual money), so I was playing roulette, I used Martingale to bet two out of three rows of the roulette, which is about 60% odds.
The house limit allows me to go up to 12 martingale bets before losing a huge sum.
So the chances of losing 12 times in a row is 40%^12, which is 0.0017%.
However, to win until I'm above the house limit, I need to win 1000 times without losing 12 times in a row. Now 0.0017% is a pretty small probability. But that 0.0017% has a preeeetty good chance of occurring in 1000 rolls.
In fact it occurs much sooner than you expect. I tried this a couple of times, and I lost 12 consecutive rounds within two hundred rolls, and my money went completely negative.
Thank god this is MMO money, not real money.
The house limit allows me to go up to 12 martingale bets before losing a huge sum.
So the chances of losing 12 times in a row is 40%^12, which is 0.0017%.
However, to win until I'm above the house limit, I need to win 1000 times without losing 12 times in a row. Now 0.0017% is a pretty small probability. But that 0.0017% has a preeeetty good chance of occurring in 1000 rolls.
In fact it occurs much sooner than you expect. I tried this a couple of times, and I lost 12 consecutive rounds within two hundred rolls, and my money went completely negative.
Thank god this is MMO money, not real money.
DroneBrother
Banned
3/4 odds on each role or 25% chance you will hit a 1 each role.
Doesn't matter how many times you role it, that's the chance of each roll
Allforce
Member
He's still picking the teams he thinks will win based on his knowledge of the matchup. It doesn't read like he's just blindly throwing money at any game and if he loses then WELP THROW MORE MONEY AT RANDOMNESS.
He even says he's picking mostly games with even odds, not going for broke on McGregor beating Mayweather 10 times in a row.
I mean, whatever, let him do what he wants. But I just keep reading the advice in here as if he's playing a table game or something at a casino that have rigid defined odds. I'm just pointing out that he could do alright with this if he's knowledgeable enough about the sport.
You missed this part:
Setting that aside, if you do have a statistical advantage, the last thing you should want to do is employ a Martingale method. Martingale results in exponential growth in losses, such that a relatively short bad run can bankrupt you. If you have a statistical advantage, you should want to make a large number of small bets, such that the odds of achieving a losing streak long enough to bankrupts you becomes very small.
PhantomThief
Banned
I mean it sounds pretty decent looking at your wins. I take it you are betting on soccer? Easier to win than by playing casino games.
And then you'll sit there, thinking "Hey, I just made a profit, why not do that again?"
True Savior
Member
OP explain to me the method that I will try it. I always lose hundreds of euros in august-september when the season restarts. Then I stop.
Outside of the martingale with a twist-part, what the hell are you even betting? Anything with the odds you want? That seems crazy.
I've been playing a lot on over 2.5, and I'm already bleeding.
Outside of the martingale with a twist-part, what the hell are you even betting? Anything with the odds you want? That seems crazy.
I've been playing a lot on over 2.5, and I'm already bleeding.
jellies_two
Member
This.
The house has a limit: a bet limit, a payout limit but you also have a limit that is much smaller: funds that you can bet.
People who reflexively double down on a loss are a favorite customer for casinos because sooner or later they blow their personal limit and lose everything.
Ever watch that film Lost in America?
Vegas is full of people living pay check to pay check in cheap housing, analyzing craps or roulette runs. Even buying old casino equipment hoping to discover the edge. If you do find an actual computer assisted edge (read "the Newtonian casino") they stick your faces up in their spy rooms and ban you.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
Uh 2% ROI daily wtf? Of course you're gonna be a millionaire quick that way.
protonion
Member
Read post 13.
And yes if you choose randomly games the chance of winning are the same as roullete. People here proved it.
But if you read the games to find odd mistakes (let's not forget the odds are changing depending on how people bet and most of them play wrong) you can push the chance a bit.
I checked my stats. I play games that the odds have them at 40-50% and I win about 70% of them.
I have to set a goal. Like cash out at double or triple my initial sum at most.
Also avoid the over 2,5 bet. 1, 2 or draw no bet. That's my advice.
careless mango
Member
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True Savior
Member
Ok. Finding odd mistakes is indeed a strategy but right now I can't do it cause in Portugal the bookmakers now need a license and there's only 4 or 5 which makes the whole thing miserable (and in clear collusion by them). We are all hoping that betfair finally gets theirs though. I thought you had something else going on in terms of betting-events.
My 2,5 is simply based on high volume data. If the odd is between a certain interval, I bet.
1) Gambling is not a long term game, the longer you play the more likely you are to lose.
2) Betting systems do not change the chance of winning/losing
3) Betting systems change your win/loss money distribution over a set period of time vs standard betting
4) Betting system usually result in chasing loses resulting in higher and higher bets
I have experimented with different betting systems some are safer than others. The problem is when they "work" you make a lot of money but when you go on a loosing streak you tend to lose everything.
2) Betting systems do not change the chance of winning/losing
3) Betting systems change your win/loss money distribution over a set period of time vs standard betting
4) Betting system usually result in chasing loses resulting in higher and higher bets
I have experimented with different betting systems some are safer than others. The problem is when they "work" you make a lot of money but when you go on a loosing streak you tend to lose everything.
clay_ghost
Member
No gambler will wake up based on some online forums reply. OP will lose everything and won't even have money or a device to access the Internet to prove otherwise soon.
Marky Mark
Member
I'm straight, never smoked weed in my life, and I was sitting here thinking 'this fuckin dumass, all dice are four-sided' and then when I saw the pyramid I had to construct a 6-sided-die in my mind's eye before I realise what a dumass i was.
toddhunter
Member
Not even then.
If someone notices you winning, and they will, they will quickly change the rules so you can no longer use that system to win.
Earthbound64
Banned
So, again, why did you post this thread if you're not actually going to listen to anyone?
protonion
Member
Maybe the thread title confused you, a mod changed it.
I wanted someone to do the math to see how this method would work with random picks.
I haven't lost money all the years I'm playing. Just wanted to make it easier.
Earthbound64
Banned
Imbarkus
As Sartre noted in his contemplation on Hell in No Exit, the true horror is other members.
Think I'll use this thread to come back and review some probability math. I definitely got lost along the way.
I will say all gambling looks like its versus the House but its really asynchronous PvP. The House always pulls enough to cover bets and keep the percentage, so you're just winning other people's money, from the past if necessary.
Then again this sounds like online European sports betting which is really the untamed frontier of the industry right now, possibly staffed by people who aren't doing the math properly, or who might be spending those past winnings too fast to cover future bets... so... good luck!
I will say all gambling looks like its versus the House but its really asynchronous PvP. The House always pulls enough to cover bets and keep the percentage, so you're just winning other people's money, from the past if necessary.
Then again this sounds like online European sports betting which is really the untamed frontier of the industry right now, possibly staffed by people who aren't doing the math properly, or who might be spending those past winnings too fast to cover future bets... so... good luck!
Imbarkus
As Sartre noted in his contemplation on Hell in No Exit, the true horror is other members.
Super inconvenient from a database and string processing perspective.
If it were up to me, I'd offer you adoption of the European date system (26/8/17 today) in trade for a concession in using our decimal points.
Squirrel Killer
Member
So first off, let me say that I'm an idiot about gambling and odds. I like my money too much to risk it.
My thought was that college football might fit that criteria. Feed some predictor of match results and betting lines in to a database and have it spit out the matches with the greatest difference between predictions and lines. There's ~65 matches per weekend, surely there are enough delusional fanbases to bet 3-5 of those irrationally.
I got as far as importing Sagarin ratings in to a database (use of Sagarin was just because it was the easiest one to use to test the theory, not because it was the best rating to use,) but bailed on the idea when trying to import the lines. Like I said, I'm an idiot when it comes to betting, and learning that side of it was going to be too much work for an idea that, honestly, someone smarter than me has probably already figured out and calculated in setting the lines.
But still I wonder...
Decimal comma is straight up bad, like Imperial System bad. Points are only used to end sentences and to separate integer and fractional parts of a number. Commas are used to separate parts of a sentence, separate items in a list, separate integer and fractional parts of a number, and group digits in large numbers. Spaces are used to separate words in a sentence and group digits in large numbers. Points in a number are totally unambiguous, commas aren't. Standard should be spaces for digit grouping and points for integer/fractional separation.
These comments remind me that when I realized that the sports lines aren't just the bookmaker's predictions on who would win, but are adjusted based on betting trends, I wondered if that could be exploited. That is to say, is there a sport that can be predicted with a high enough accuracy yet bettors bet irrationally enough that betting trends force bookmakers move the line away from a true prediction? Ideally, the sport would offer enough matches so that you could just pick the matches with the highest discrepancy between the true prediction and the adjusted line.
My thought was that college football might fit that criteria. Feed some predictor of match results and betting lines in to a database and have it spit out the matches with the greatest difference between predictions and lines. There's ~65 matches per weekend, surely there are enough delusional fanbases to bet 3-5 of those irrationally.
I got as far as importing Sagarin ratings in to a database (use of Sagarin was just because it was the easiest one to use to test the theory, not because it was the best rating to use,) but bailed on the idea when trying to import the lines. Like I said, I'm an idiot when it comes to betting, and learning that side of it was going to be too much work for an idea that, honestly, someone smarter than me has probably already figured out and calculated in setting the lines.
But still I wonder...
Both the US and Euro date system suck. YYYYMMDD 4 lyfe.
Decimal comma is straight up bad, like Imperial System bad. Points are only used to end sentences and to separate integer and fractional parts of a number. Commas are used to separate parts of a sentence, separate items in a list, separate integer and fractional parts of a number, and group digits in large numbers. Spaces are used to separate words in a sentence and group digits in large numbers. Points in a number are totally unambiguous, commas aren't. Standard should be spaces for digit grouping and points for integer/fractional separation.
Yep. Please think this through, OP. The odds are against you. Period. You're not going to win in the long run.
shawnbuddy
Member
And also magical thinking about numbers.
Squirrel Killer
Member
Right, the line is adjusted depending on what people play, the books are trying to get money on both sides of the match. The situation I thought to exploit is if there are some fans, say certain delusional Alabama/USC/Michigan/Notre Dame fans, who are betting on their team regardless of the odds.
Let's say OSU is predicted to beat Little Sisters of the Poor College by 28 points. Any reasonable person can see that's a reasonable line, LSPC is an up and coming program, they have a hot new coach, they recruited well, etc..., etc... But OSU fans are numerous and they scoff at LSPC. In their minds, OSU's coach is the GOAT, their offensive line weighs more individually than LSPC's line weights collectively, OSU's halftime program could beat LSPC. You couldn't set the line high enough to keep OSU superfan (who never attended the school) from beating on good ol' OSU.
Wouldn't line setters move away from a reasonable prediction in that case to keep enough money on both side of the match? And if so, are there enough games out of 65+ games per week that those superfans' irrational betting moves the line far enough away from a accurate prediction that someone could exploit?