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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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Piecake

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Literally one day after winning his primary, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) gave up on Donald Trump. In fact, McCain now sounds a bit like he's betting on Trump losing — or, at least, looking like a loser for the rest of the campaign season — to help him win a sixth term in the Senate.

In a gauzy, five-minute YouTube video released Wednesday, McCain looks directly at the camera and says: "My opponent, Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, is a good person. But if Hillary Clinton is elected president, Arizona will need a senator who will act as a check — not a rubber stamp — for the White House."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ic-chain_mccaintrump-fix-815am:homepage/story
 
@yvonnewingett
.@AZDemParty updated its sign, y'all. Cc @AZGOP @azcentral @realDonaldTrump

CrXlrS3VYAAKtML.jpg:large

hahahaha
 
eE6po6l.jpg


Roll out taco trucks at the next few rallies. Make trump's team actually have to answer absurd stupid questions about tacos, and why they have a problem with them.

It's dumb of course but it's Labor Day weekend. Let's have some dumb fun.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling

There's nothing but love for that guy around here... or at least that's all I ever hear. I'm up in Boise, but close enough. He treats his employees very well. My fiance is a caterer and they've been hired out to cater big employee appreciation events for them and their families a few times in the last year or so. Fuck Brietbart.

edit: I'm glad the article mentions that Idaho has been pretty great for refugees. It's one of very few things that we do well.
 
I mentioned Gabe Sherman's piece on Ailes a bit ago, Now I return with excerpts.

It began, of course, with a lawsuit. Of all the people who might have brought down Ailes, the former Fox & Friends anchor Gretchen Carlson was among the least likely. A 50-year-old former Miss America, she was the archetypal Fox anchor: blonde, right-wing, proudly anti-intellectual. A memorable Daily Show clip showed Carlson saying she needed to Google the words czar and ignoramus. But television is a deceptive medium. Off-camera, Carlson is a Stanford- and Oxford-educated feminist who chafed at the culture of Fox News. When Ailes made harassing comments to her about her legs and suggested she wear tight-fitting outfits after she joined the network in 2005, she tried to ignore him. But eventually he pushed her too far. When Carlson complained to her supervisor in 2009 about her co-host Steve Doocy, who she said condescended to her on and off the air, Ailes responded that she was “a man hater” and a “killer” who “needed to get along with the boys.” After this conversation, Carlson says, her role on the show diminished. In September 2013, Ailes demoted her from the morning show Fox & Friends to the lower-rated 2 p.m. time slot

The culture of fear at Fox was such that no one would dare come forward. Ailes was notoriously paranoid and secretive — he built a multiroom security bunker under his home and kept a gun in his Fox office, according to Vanity Fair — and he demanded absolute loyalty from those who worked for him. He was known for monitoring employee emails and phone conversations and hiring private investigators. “Watch out for the enemy within,” he told Fox’s staff during one companywide meeting.

Taking on Ailes was dangerous, but Carlson was determined to fight back. She settled on a simple strategy: She would turn the tables on his surveillance. Beginning in 2014, according to a person familiar with the lawsuit, Carlson brought her iPhone to meetings in Ailes’s office and secretly recorded him saying the kinds of things he’d been saying to her all along. “I think you and I should have had a sexual relationship a long time ago, and then you’d be good and better and I’d be good and better. Sometimes problems are easier to solve” that way, he said in one conversation. “I’m sure you can do sweet nothings when you want to,” he said another time.

When Carlson filed her suit, 21st Century Fox executive chairman Rupert Murdoch and his sons, James and Lachlan, were in Sun Valley, Idaho, attending the annual Allen & Company media conference. James and Lachlan, who were not fans of Ailes’s, had been taking on bigger and bigger roles in the company in recent years (technically, and much to his irritation, Ailes has reported to them since June 2015), and they were quick to recognize the suit as both a big problem — and an opportunity. Within hours, the Murdoch heirs persuaded their 85-year-old father, who historically has been loath to undercut Ailes publicly, to release a statement saying, “We take these matters seriously.” They also persuaded Rupert to hire the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison to conduct aninternal investigation into the matter. Making things look worse for Ailes, three days after Carlson’s suit was filed, New York published the accounts of six other women who claimed to have been harassed by Ailes over the course of three decades.

A few hours after the New York report, Ailes held an emergency meeting with longtime friend Rudy Giuliani and lawyer Marc Mukasey at his home in Garrison, New York, according to a high-level Fox source. Ailes vehemently denied the allegations. The next morning, Ailes and his wife, Elizabeth, turned his ­second-floor office at Fox News into a war room. “It’s all bullshit! We have to get in front of this,” he said to executives. “This is not about money. This is about his legacy,” said Elizabeth, according to a Fox source. As part of his counteroffensive, Ailes rallied Fox News employees to defend him in the press. Fox & Friends host Ainsley Earhardt called Ailes a “family man”; Fox Business anchor Neil Cavuto wrote, reportedly of his own volition, an op-ed labeling Ailes’s accusers “sick.” Ailes’s legal team attempted to intimidate a former Fox correspondent named Rudi Bakhtiar who spoke to New York about her harassment.

Ailes told executives that he was being persecuted by the liberal media and by the Murdoch sons. According to a high-level source inside the company, Ailes complained to 21st Century Fox general counsel Gerson Zweifach that James, whose wife had worked for the Clinton Foundation, was trying to get rid of him in order to help elect Hillary Clinton.

Beyond the James and Lachlan factor, the relationship between Murdoch and Ailes was becoming strained: Murdoch didn’t like that Ailes was putting Fox so squarely behind the candidacy of Donald Trump. And he had begun to worry less about whether Fox could endure without its creator. (In recent years, Ailes had taken extended health leaves from Fox and the ratings held.) Now Ailes had made himself a true liability: More than two dozen Fox News women told the Paul, Weiss lawyers about their harassment in graphic terms.

As the inevitability of an ouster became clear, chaos engulfed Ailes’s team. After news broke on the afternoon of July 19 that Kelly had come forward, Ailes’s lawyer Susan Estrich tried to send Ailes’s denial to Drudge but mistakenly emailed a draft of Ailes’s proposed severance deal, which Drudge, briefly, published instead. Also that day, Ailes’s allies claimed to conservative news site Breitbart that 50 of Fox’s biggest personalities were prepared to quit if Ailes was removed, though in reality there was no such pact. That evening, Murdoch used one of his own press organs to fire back, with the New York Post tweeting the cover of the next day’s paper featuring Ailes’s picture and news that “the end is near for Roger Ailes.”

Indeed, that evening Ailes was banned from Fox News headquarters, his company email and phone shut off. On the afternoon of July 21, a few hours before Trump was to accept the Republican nomination in Cleveland, Murdoch summoned Ailes to his New York penthouse to work out a severance deal. James had wanted Ailes to be fired for cause, according to a person close to the Murdochs, but after reviewing his contract, Rupert decided to pay him $40 million and retain him as an “adviser.” Ailes, in turn, agreed to a multiyear noncompete clause that prevents him from going to a rival network (but, notably, not to a political campaign).

“Fox News masquerades as a defender of traditional family values,” claimed the lawsuit of Fox anchor Andrea Tantaros, who says she was demoted and smeared in the press after she rebuffed sexual advances from Ailes, “but behind the scenes, it operates like a sex-­fueled, Playboy Mansion–like cult, steeped in intimidation, indecency and misogyny.”

By all accounts, Ailes had been a management disaster from the moment he arrived at NBC in 1993. But by 1995, things had reached a breaking point. In October of that year, NBC hired the law firm Proskauer Rose to conduct an internal investigation after then–NBC executive David Zaslav told human resources that Ailes had called him a “little fucking Jew prick” in front of a witness.

What NBC considered fireable offenses, Murdoch saw as competitive advantages.

Ailes became untouchable. At News Corp., he behaved just as he had at NBC, but Murdoch tolerated Ailes’s abusiveness because he was pleased with the results.
Ailes used Fox’s payroll as a patronage tool, doling out jobs to Republican politicians, friends, and political operatives. He made his personal lawyer, Peter Johnson Jr., a regular guest on Fox shows, despite producers’ misgivings about Johnson’s on-air performance. (They nicknamed Johnson “The Must-Do.”) Manny Alvarez, Ailes’s wife’s doctor, became a medical commentator.

Ailes also positioned his former secretaries in key departments where he could make use of their loyalty to him. One, Nikole King, went to the finance department, where she handled Ailes’s personal expenses, a Fox executive said. Another, Brigette Boyle, went to human resources, where she was “tasked with hiring the ‘right’ people,” a former executive recalled.

But most striking is the extent to which Ailes ruled Fox News like a surveillance state. According to executives, he instructed Fox’s head of engineering, Warren Vandeveer, to install a CCTV system that allowed Ailes to monitor Fox offices, studios, greenrooms, the back entrance, and his homes. When Ailes spotted James Murdoch on the monitor smoking a cigarette outside the office, he remarked to his deputy Bill Shine, “Tell me that mouth hasn’t sucked a cock,” according to an executive who was in the room; Shine laughed.

Fox News also obtained the phone records of journalists, by legally questionable means. According to two sources with direct knowledge of the incident, Brandi, Fox’s general counsel, hired a private investigator in late 2010 to obtain the personal home- and cell-phone records of Joe Strupp, a reporter for the liberal watchdog group Media Matters. (Through a spokesperson, Brandi denied this.) In the fall of that year, Strupp had written several articles quoting anonymous Fox sources, and the network wanted to determine who was talking to him. “This was the culture. Getting phone records doesn’t make anybody blink,” one Fox executive told me.

In August 1968, Ailes left The Mike Douglas Show to join Richard Nixon’s presidential campaign as a media strategist. Ailes’s success in reinventing the candidate for television helped propel Nixon to the White House and made Ailes a media star (he was the anti-hero of Joe McGinniss’s landmark book The Selling of the President). But even back then, Ailes’s recklessness put his thriving career at risk. A former model told me that her parents called the police on Ailes after she told them he assaulted her in a Cincinnati hotel room in 1969. “I remember Ailes sweet-talking my parents out of pressing charges,” she says.

One prominent Republican told me that it was Ailes’s well-known reputation for awful behavior toward women that prevented him from being invited to work in the Nixon White House (or, later, in the administration of Bush 41).

A former television producer described an interview with Ailes in 1975, in which he said: “If you want to make it in New York City in the TV business, you’re going to have to fuck me, and you’re going to do that with anyone I tell you to.” While running media strategy on Rudy Giuliani’s 1989 mayoral campaign, Ailes propositioned an employee of his political-consulting firm: He name-dropped his friend Barry Diller and said that if she’d have sex with him he’d ask Diller to get her a part on Beverly Hills 90210. (Diller said he never received such a request.)

According to interviews with Fox News women, Ailes would often begin by offering to mentor a young employee. He then asked a series of personal questions to expose potential vulnerabilities. “He asked, ‘Am I in a relationship? What are my familial ties?’ It was all to see how stable or unstable I was,” said a former employee. Megyn Kelly told lawyers at Paul, Weiss that Ailes made an unwanted sexual advance toward her in 2006 when she was going through a divorce. A lawyer for former anchor Laurie Dhue told me that Ailes harassed her around 2006; at the time, she was struggling with alcoholism.

Ailes’s longtime executive assistant Judy Laterza — who became one of his top lieutenants, earning more than $2 million a year, according to a Fox executive — seemed to function as a recruiter of sorts. According to Carlson’s attorney, in 2002, Laterza remarked to a college intern she saw on the elevator about how pretty she was and invited her to meet Ailes. After that meeting, Ailes arranged for the young woman to transfer to his staff. Her first assignment was to go down to the newsstand and fetch him the latest issue of Maxim. When she returned with the magazine, Ailes asked her to stay with him in his office. He flipped through the pages. The womantold the Washington Post that Ailes said, “You look like the women in here. You have great legs. If you sleep with me, you could be a model or a newscaster.” She cut short her internship. (Laterza did not respond to a request for comment.)

I spoke with another Fox News administrative assistant who said Laterza invited her to meet Ailes in 2004. The woman, then 25, told Ailes that her ambition was to do commercials. Ailes offered to pay for voice lessons (she declined) and helped her land an agent at William Morris. A few months later, Ailes summoned her to his office for an update. She told him how excited she was about the opportunities, and Ailes invited her for a drink. She suggested happy hour, but he demurred. “For a man in my position, it would have to be alone at a hotel,” she recalls him saying. “Do you know how to play the game?” She tried to get out of the situation as tactfully as possible. “I don’t feel comfortable doing this,” she said. “I respect your family; what about your son?” She remembers Ailes’s reply: “I’m a multifaceted man. That’s one side of me.” As she left the office, she says, Ailes tried to kiss her. “I was holding a binder full of voice-over auditions that I put between us. I was terrified.” She says she never heard from the William Morris agent again.

It is unfathomable to think, given Ailes’s reputation, given the number of women he propositioned and harassed and assaulted over decades, that senior management at Fox News was unaware of what was happening. What is more likely is that their very jobs included enabling, abetting, protecting, and covering up for their boss. “No one said no to Roger,” a Fox executive said.

The story of Laurie Luhn, which I reported in July, is an example of how Ailes used Fox’s public-relations, legal, and finance departments to facilitate his behavior. Ailes met Luhn on the 1988 George H.W. Bush campaign, and soon thereafter he put her on a $500 monthly retainer with his political-consulting firm to be his “spy” in Washington, though really her job was to meet him in hotel rooms. (During their first encounter, Luhn says, Ailes videotaped her in a garter belt and told her: “I am going to put [the tape] in a safe-deposit box just so we understand each other.”) Ailes recruited Luhn to Fox in 1996, before the network even launched. Collier, then his deputy, offered her a job in guest relations in the Washington bureau.

Laterza, Shine, and Shine’s deputy Suzanne Scott would take turns summoning Luhn for “meetings” in New York. (A Fox spokesperson said executives were not aware Ailes was sexually involved with Luhn.) Ailes and Luhn would meet in the afternoons, Luhn said, at hotels near Times Square, and Ailes paid her cash for sexual favors. She was also on the payroll at Fox — at her peak, she earned $250,000 a year as an event planner for the channel; multiple sources confirmed that she was a “Friend of Roger,” with special protection within the company. But the arrangement required her to do many things that now cause her anguish, including luring young female Fox employees into one-on-one meetings with Ailes that Luhn knew would likely result in harassment. “You’re going to find me ‘Roger’s Angels,’ ” he reportedly told her. One of Luhn’s employees received a six-figure settlement after filing a harassment claim against Ailes.

By the fall of 2006, Luhn says, Ailes was worried that she might go public with her story or cause a scene of some kind. That’s when the Fox machine really kicked into gear. According to Luhn, Fox PR tried to spread a rumor to the New York Daily News that Luhn had had an affair with Lee Atwater (which she denies), a story designed to make Luhn seem promiscuous so that her credibility would be damaged.

In late 2010 or early 2011, Luhn wrote a letter to Brandi, the Fox lawyer, saying she had been sexually harassed by Ailes for 20 years. According to a source, Brandi asked Ailes about the allegations, which he denied. Brandi then worked out a settlement at Ailes’s request. On June 15, 2011, Luhn signed a $3.15 million settlement agreement with extensive nondisclosure provisions. The payment was approved by Fox News CFO Mark Kranz. The check, which I viewed, was signed by David E. Miller, a treasurer for Fox Television Stations, Inc., a division run by current Fox co-president Jack Abernethy. “I have no idea how my name ended up on the check,” says Miller, citing standard company practice of signing checks and not asking questions. The settlement documents, which Luhn also showed me, were signed by Ailes, Brandi, and Shine.

After Luhn left Fox, Ailes took additional measures to conceal his harassment of employees. In 2011, he installed a floor-to-ceiling wooden door outside his executive suite. Only his assistants could see who entered his office. According to a former Fox producer, Laterza entered fake names into Ailes’s datebook when women went into his office: “If you got ahold of his ledger, you would not know who visited him.”

Still, the whispers about Ailes and women were growing louder. Karem Alsina, a former Fox makeup artist, told me she grew suspicious when Fox anchors came to see her before private meetings with Ailes to have their makeup done. “They would say, ‘I’m going to see Roger, gotta look beautiful!’ ” she recalled. “One of them came back down after a meeting, and the makeup on her nose and chin was gone.”

It’s hard to say that justice has been served. But the story isn’t over: Last week, the shareholder law firm Scott & Scott announced it was investigating 21st Century Fox to “determine whether Fox’s Officers and Directors have breached their fiduciary duties.” Meanwhile, Ailes is walking away from his biggest career train wreck yet, seeking relevance and renewed power through the one person in the country who doesn’t see him as political kryptonite, the candidate he created: Donald J. Trump. Ailes may be trying to sell us another president, but now we know the truth about the salesman.

The whole article is worth reading. It is a stunning and comprehensive look at Ailes.
 
Michelle Bachman warns that this is the last election before demographics makes Republican Party totally unviable

“I don't want to be melodramatic but I do want to be truthful,” the evangelical Christian said in an interview on the Christian Broadcasting Network’s “Brody File.” “I believe without a shadow of a doubt this is the last election. This is it. This is the last election.”

“It's a math problem of demographics and a changing United States,” she said. “If you look at the numbers of people who vote and who lives in the country and who Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton want to bring in to the country, this is the last election when we even have a chance to vote for somebody who will stand up for godly moral principles. This is it.”

Bachmann said that if Clinton were elected, she would offer “wholesale amnesty” to undocumented immigrants “so that Republicans will never again have the chance at winning Florida or Texas” and therefore be unable to secure the White House.

"She's going to change the demographics of the United States so that no Republican will ever win again," Bachmann insisted.

ALL ACCORDING TO KEIKAKU

FULL SPEED AHEAD
 
Leaving OH and CO senate races leaves the DSCC with $6.5 million in cash to spend on NC, MO, and AZ:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...new-doubts-about-ohio-confidence-in-colorado/

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has canceled another two weeks of ad reservations made on behalf of former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who has struggled to build momentum in his campaign to unseat Portman. The decision comes just days after the DSCC and a leading Democratic super PAC both scaled back spending plans in a race that had been expected to be among the most competitive of the cycle.

Meanwhile, the DSCC is also canceling entirely the $5 million in reservations it had made in Colorado, where Bennet had anticipated facing a strong, well-financed Republican challenger. But the Republican nominee, Darryl Glenn, is a county commissioner who had little statewide profile and had raised little money before upsetting several better-funded candidates in the June Colorado primary. He reported having about $119,000 at the end of June, compared to Bennet’s $6 million.

Where the Ohio shift reflects the perceived weakness of the Democratic candidate, the Colorado cancellation reflects the Democrat’s apparent strength. Together, the shifts mean that the DSCC has roughly $6.5 million to spend to more competitive races — including potential pickups in places like North Carolina, Missouri and Arizona that have been seen as marginal pick-up opportunities by Democratic strategists but where polls remain competitive.

They still have some reservations for OH later since they haven't canceled them all together, so there's more money there to free up.
 
edit: I'm glad the article mentions that Idaho has been pretty great for refugees. It's one of very few things that we do well.

Utah too. People dump on the states (sometimes for very fair reasons) but if you live in their communities and reach out for help, you'll be able to find it.

Has Trump ever finished the rest of his $10 million ad buy? I haven't heard confirmation that he did.


"Trump announced a $10 million ad buy earlier this week, which is his largest yet of this election cycle. But as of midday Friday, just half that amount had been reserved on the airwaves, according to CMAG"

This after telling NBC earlier in the week (Aug 31):

"When NBC News asked the Trump campaign on Tuesday about the state of the buy, a spokesman responded, "The rest is being placed today."

Clown fiesta.
 
The thing that shows best that the media is t interested in analyzing this email story critically is the whole hair on fire over the "13 devices when she said it was to have only one." Obviously Clinton never said she had 1 device the *whole* tile but that she didn't want to carry one phone at a time. They act like people never upgrade their phones
 
More immigrants would actually mean more Christians, since a lot of the people coming in are Catholic. Allowing more of them to come in would actually be good for Christianity in this country, not bad for it. Hillary has actually mentioned her Methodist upbringing in her speeches and it's clear that it influences her positions on social justice. Trump on the other hand even admitted himself that he "probably doesn't deserve" evangelical support, and he's right, he doesn't, he's the least godly and moral person to run for president in my lifetime. So, in other words, Michele Bachmann, I disagree in the strongest of terms.

(I'm a Methodist like Hillary, btw)
 
I don't understand how you all still believe the stuff politico writes. Given what you know about Democrats, have they ever been confident enough of anything to be talking about running out the clock and predicting landslide victories? It's nonsense.
 
Good link, thanks
I worked for a service sector union. 80% of the members were not white males. And the union used to be mostly white men with some women.


Organized a few new shops. I can't recall a single white male in them (at least in the bargaining unit)

Unionism is actually a great fit for many of these people because they are immigrants and minorities and concepts like solidarity and teamwork are so necessary.

Once you get people over the fear of losing their job (which is super super hard given theyre often on the on the margins and bosses have so much power) they enjoy organizing lol
 
It sort of just dawned on me that we're never going to hear the end of the email scandal. I thought it would be over after Comey, and here we are, again. And there will probably be something in here -- who knows what -- that will lead to yet another hearing with Comey, or Lynch, or Hillary.

Might as well start the impeachment hearings the day after the inauguration at this point.
 

Bowdz

Member
It sort of just dawned on me that we're never going to hear the end of the email scandal. I thought it would be over after Comey, and here we are, again. And there will probably be something in here -- who knows what -- that will lead to yet another hearing with Comey, or Lynch, or Hillary.

Might as well start the impeachment hearings the day after the inauguration at this point.

Dude, we're still hearing about Benghazi 4 years after the fact and countless investigations. We'll never stop hearing about the emails and I guarantee that there will be murmurs of impeachment by the hardcore right in the House by Feb 2017 without a doubt.
 
Dude, we're still hearing about Benghazi 4 years after the fact and countless investigations. We'll never stop hearing about the emails and I guarantee that there will be murmurs of impeachment by the hardcore right in the House by Feb 2017 without a doubt.

I'm tired.
 
Dude, we're still hearing about Benghazi 4 years after the fact and countless investigations. We'll never stop hearing about the emails and I guarantee that there will be murmurs of impeachment by the hardcore right in the House by Feb 2017 without a doubt.

Only way to shut it up (for a while) is to take the House and the Senate. So yeah...
 

Crisco

Banned
It's gonna be so fun watching all the pundits lining up to apologize to Hillary Clinton over the whole email scandal this weekend.

c2P8Ijt.gif
 

Boke1879

Member
It sort of just dawned on me that we're never going to hear the end of the email scandal. I thought it would be over after Comey, and here we are, again. And there will probably be something in here -- who knows what -- that will lead to yet another hearing with Comey, or Lynch, or Hillary.

Might as well start the impeachment hearings the day after the inauguration at this point.

You hear the end of it. Go on twitter right now and ClintonsMemory is trending on twitter here in the US. It's by obvious Trump supporters but still.

It's something they can latch on to even if the FBI said she didn't break any laws. We still hear about Benghazi. This will be something that follows her presidency.
 

remist

Member
After reading through the report two things stand out to me. One; Colin Powell is a scumbag.

And two; the whole story about the sequence of events that led to a PRN tech wiping emails with bleachbit in March 2015 (pg. 18-19). It seems pretty clear to me that Clinton instructing her lawyer and staff that she no longer needed retention of emails older than 60 days is a defacto request for deletion. She knew at the time that those emails were of interest to government agencies and investigators, A change in retention policy at that moment seems careless and irresponsible if not purposefully duplicitous.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Just heard this part of Trump's speech for the first time:

"We (meaning the U.S.) are like a bully that keeps getting beat up"

What the fuck? Who the fuck calls themselves the bully? The proper attack line is that everyone else is a bully to innocent, helpless Amurka.

Trump ain't even trying to pretend like he's the good guy.
 

Owzers

Member
Just heard this part of Trump's speech for the first time:

"We (meaning the U.S.) are like a bully that keeps getting beat up"

What the fuck? Who the fuck calls themselves the bully? The proper attack line is that everyone else is a bully to innocent, helpless Amurka.

Trump ain't even trying to pretend like he's the good guy.
What if he thinks being a bully is being the good guy?
 
I have yet to see a scenario where Trump wins without winning New Hampshire.

NH doesn't really matter that much, even if he wins it he'd need to flip PA or another rust belt state to win, especially if you don't think Nevada is as close as it's polling.
 
The thing about NH that it's the final state that Hillary needs to win.

She's ahead by at least 10 in
NH
PA
VA
CO

That';s the ball game.

Who cares about Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina at that point.

Also: my current hot take?

The undecided voters don't matter. They're not going to break for Hillary or Trump. They're going to stay home. Both Trump and Hillary are an option for them. Most of Johnson's voters won't vote either, and the three people who are going to vote for Jill Stein won't remember to do it.

She wins by 8 points with a lower than expected turnout.

not ideal, but it's a win. But, I think this puts marginal states more in play than people think, because the people that do turn out fucking hate Trump.
 
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