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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Iolo

Member
So I guess a poll came out showing her with a 2 point lead and Hillary is now scrambling to win California.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/clinton-scrambles-to-salvage-california-223639

I got sent this by a Bernie friend who was all too eager to share lol. I just don't see her losing here but whatever.

This is why I said "warning: Politico". Their narrative articles are the worst.

This time around, Clinton officials are predicting, at best, a very tight contest. They’ve poured in resources and devoted the candidate’s time to the state but a new poll out Wednesday from the Public Policy Institute of California showed Clinton’s one-time 18-point lead over Sanders had dwindled to just 2 percentage points.

Monday poll: 18 points
Wednesday poll: 2 points
Conclusion: Clinton scrambling, behind by 14 points on Friday
 

Drek

Member
You're basically hearing from the craziest of crazies (it even says "die-hard supporters hoping for an FBI indictment"). You can't blame Bernie for that unless he fails to support Hillary after her nomination and drags normal people away from her.

He can't un-ring the bell on the isolationist bullshit he's been spreading on free trade agreements his entire campaign. There is nothing Sanders can do at this point to make his campaign anything but a net negative for the progressive movement. How he plays out the finish here decides if he was only mildly damaging or if he's going to try and burn the whole thing down because he didn't get his way.
 
This is why I said "warning: Politico". Their narrative articles are the worst.



Monday poll: 18 points
Wednesday poll: 2 points
Conclusion: Clinton scrambling, behind by 14 points on Friday

Yeah I sent him the to to the +18 poll and the rcp average page. Haven't gotten a text back yet.
 

royalan

Member
He can't un-ring the bell on the isolationist bullshit he's been spreading on free trade agreements his entire campaign. There is nothing Sanders can do at this point to make his campaign anything but a net negative for the progressive movement. How he plays out the finish here decides if he was only mildly damaging or if he's going to try and burn the whole thing down because he didn't get his way.

That's one thing I'll never understand about this election.

When did free trade become anti-progressive?

When did isolationism become progressive?
 

blackw0lf

Member
So I guess a poll came out showing her with a 2 point lead and Hillary is now scrambling to win California.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/clinton-scrambles-to-salvage-california-223639

I got sent this by a Bernie friend who was all too eager to share lol. I just don't see her losing here but whatever.

A combination of independents allowed to vote, and over a million new registered voters, the vast majority that are young voters, leads me to believe he has a great chance of winning.

It won't be enough to win the nomination, but I could see him winning by 10%.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
That's one thing I'll never understand about this election.

When did free trade become anti-progressive?

When did isolationism become progressive?

In the short term, protectionism and isolationism are aligned with the interests of labor, insomuch as they're focused on "keeping the jobs"

What's genuinely strange to me is that Bernie is leaning into that short term thinking so heavily, instead of really going in on the bigger picture of "hey...the jobs left but the money is still here, we need to evaluate the distribution of wealth"

Like...yes, he is also campaigning on that to an extent, but the anti-trade thing is an active distraction from that larger goal
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
To be fair, GOTV matters a lot more for Democrats than the GOP. Those folks turn out no matter what.

CdEjchxW4AEhyaH.jpg
 

ctothej

Member
Jesus fucking Christ. I just logged onto predictit for the first time in ages. Have 250 shares on Clinton getting the nomination. Her value? Still 86c! What is wrong with people? How is this Primary not wrapped up yet?
 
Not looking so likely anymore.
I agree, only stating my preference. I guess holding on to the hegemony is more attractive.

Yes centuries ago thank you.
My point being that a few years after a very serious war between the nations, the UK supported the US in its endeavors and they have become staunch allies.

Whatever you have from there can and will easily be one-upped by Tienanmen Square alone.

EDIT: Hell, I can't even post the more graphic pictures of what happened here without getting banned.
And Tiananmen square alone can be one-upped by Native American massacres, but unlike you, I am not going to rate atrocities. I am merely proving that we have not always been stalwart defenders of human rights... ever. Trying to cut China's hamstrings for it would be hypocritical.

Do you not remember the Great Leap Forward? It sure as shit has not been a clean transition for them.

You're also ignoring the censorship and the Tibet situation and the Taiwan situation. You're glossing over a lot of stuff here.

This is from the BBC and is a short overview of some of China's fucked up shit. We don't do half of what they do.
The Great Leap forward killed anywhere from 15 million people to 50 million. That's as bad as WWII! I'm not going to deny that.

And yet... The great leap forward set China up for the greatest economic explosion in human history. It doubled the population growth rate, the life expectancy, the food production, and the quality of life for many Chinese. It also turns out that if you compare the famine to other famines that have appeared in China during its history, it is comparable in scale.

You might be surprised to know that in the 20th Century alone, we have done over three-quarters of that stuff. Get the stars and stripes out of your eyes.

I am not glossing over anything. I am very, very familiar with the history of China, and I have enough of a rudimentary knowledge of the history of this country to make comparisons.

The disconnect between reality and this post is astonishing.
Everything I said there was true. Prove me wrong.
 

Drek

Member
That's one thing I'll never understand about this election.

When did free trade become anti-progressive?

When did isolationism become progressive?

When Bernie Sanders convinced a bunch of white people with passively racist world views that it was.

When lots of people lost the chance at good jobs with pensions and health care and all they see they got for it was cheap jeans at Wal Mart.

Correlation is not causation. Manufacturing jobs were already leaving, free trade deals just got something back.

FoxConn is replacing 60,000 workers in China where they cost a fraction of U.S. labor rates with robots, yet somehow it's the lack of marginal tariffs that has destroyed the manufacturing sector in the U.S..
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
Jesus fucking Christ. I just logged onto predictit for the first time in ages. Have 250 shares on Clinton getting the nomination. Her value? Still 86c! What is wrong with people? How is this Primary not wrapped up yet?

Incredibly bizarre. I just logged on too to check my shares and I guess should've waited for more email wrist-slapping and Bernie going crazy. Oh well, I guess you can get shares at a great price now.
 
This is why I said "warning: Politico". Their narrative articles are the worst.



Monday poll: 18 points
Wednesday poll: 2 points
Conclusion: Clinton scrambling, behind by 14 points on Friday

I don't understand how the media constantly allows campaigns to get away with the whole lowered expectations game. It's always so obvious.
 

Holmes

Member
I think if Warren isn't VP the only reason is they didn't want to risk the Senate seat.

Which admittedly is a very strong reason.
Sure, but there are a lot of things going for Democrats. Baker is a moderate #NeverTrump so he could probably be persuaded into appointing a Democrat into Warren's seat after the election, it's Massachusetts so Democrats are the extreme favorites to win a special election (and screw Scott Brown for putting the fear of God into Massachuetts Democrats back in 2010), and Democrats hold >80% of seats in the state legislature so they can always change the rules for how Senate replacements work, as they've done in the past.
 
Correlation is not causation. Manufacturing jobs were already leaving, free trade deals just got something back.

FoxConn is replacing 60,000 workers in China where they cost a fraction of U.S. labor rates with robots, yet somehow it's the lack of marginal tariffs that has destroyed the manufacturing sector in the U.S..

I'm not saying it's true, but to your average former blue collar worker in Wisconsin, Indiana, or Pennsylvania, it sure doesn't look like their communities "got something back." It looks like the liberal elites in big cities got something, but they got crap and no, however much you tell them, they're not except permanent economic issues where they live as a good trade for cheap HDTV's and cell phones.

It also doesn't help when economist in their ivory towers who never have to worry about their job being shipped off to China shame blue collar workers for the crime of wanting a decent job with good waged and benefits without going thousands of dollars in debt for a college degree at age 50.

Sure, but there are a lot of things going for Democrats. Baker is a moderate #NeverTrump so he could probably be persuaded into appointing a Democrat into Warren's seat after the election, it's Massachusetts so Democrats are the extreme favorites to win a special election (and screw Scott Brown for putting the fear of God into Massachuetts Democrats back in 2010), and Democrats hold >80% of seats in the state legislature so they can always change the rules for how Senate replacements work, as they've done in the past.

It's so you cute you think the just because somebody is a "moderate" Republican they won't be total partisan assholes.
 
Sure, but there are a lot of things going for Democrats. Baker is a moderate #NeverTrump so he could probably be persuaded into appointing a Democrat into Warren's seat after the election, it's Massachusetts so Democrats are the extreme favorites to win a special election (and screw Scott Brown for putting the fear of God into Massachuetts Democrats back in 2010), and Democrats hold >80% of seats in the state legislature so they can always change the rules for how Senate replacements work, as they've done in the past.
The Scott Brown ball-washing was so embarrassing.

Especially when Warren threw her hat in the ring and all the local assholes would just talk about how great Brown was and that he was unbeatable. Some of them even endorsed him.

It was PD's "Brown has this on lockdown" rhetoric on crack.

Do people not think the incredible sexism against two women on a ticket won't play a role? Or is that actually less relevant now.
It's been brought up - I'm having a hard time imagining who would be ok with voting in a female president but not a female president AND vice president but I'm sure there will be someone. Don't think it would amount to much though. If you win more BernieBro votes that way then it's all good.
 

sphagnum

Banned
When did free trade become anti-progressive?

Free trade between capitalists for the benefit of capitalists with some ok side effects like cheap electronics at the expense of more important things like a secure life for yourself and your family is not "progressive".

If people were happy with the trade off, this wouldn't be an issue. JesseEwiak is on point.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So, Sanders is going to continue ignoring the Tax Return situation until it no longer matters if he releases them.

I do have to wonder what Trump and Sanders are hiding.

Ironically I think it's a case of Sanders being too rich, and Trump not being rich enough, lol.

I don't understand how the media constantly allows campaigns to get away with the whole lowered expectations game. It's always so obvious.

Plus, that only makes sense when there are still contests left.
 

Iolo

Member
Do people not think the incredible sexism against two women on a ticket won't play a role? Or is that actually less relevant now.

Oh, it will definitely get much worse if two women are on the ticket. It is a big reason I think Hillary would rule her out, as sad as that is.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Its not going to matter. People vote for the president and not the VP. The folks who don't want to see a woman in the WH are going to vote against Hillary because shes the one running for president, not because Warren is the VP. She could pick a woman, she could pick a white male, she could pick an alien from outer space thats not going to change that.

Warren might not get picked for other reasons but an all women ticket is a positive and not a negative.
 

VRMN

Member
Oh, it will definitely get much worse if two women are on the ticket. It is a big reason I think Hillary would rule her out, as sad as that is.
If anything, Clinton's team has been relatively open that Warren is in the mix, saying there's a lot of prescident for a single gender ticket. I don't think Warren's gender is why she won't be picked if she isn't.
 

OmniOne

Member
My Dream Scenario:

The SOTU seeing HIllary up front, with Elizabeth Warren in the VP Chair and Speaker Pelosi with the Gavel.

Cerberus Trifecta.
 
As of today by the AP count, Hillary is 73 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination.

My estimation is she will get:

Virgin Islands: 4

Delegates left to clinch: 69

Puerto Rico: 36

Delegates left to clinch: 33

Assuming a tie in New Jersey (would be a bad result for her), she will get: 63

Delegates left to clinch: -30
 

Wilsongt

Member
As of today by the AP count, Hillary is 73 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination.

My estimation is she will get:

Virgin Islands: 4

Delegates left to clinch: 69

Puerto Rico: 36

Delegates left to clinch: 33

Assuming a tie in New Jersey (would be a bad result for her), she will get: 63

Delegates left to clinch: -30

Something something something superdelegates don'y count
 

Dammit. I'm on shitty wifi on my phone, so it took like seven minutes to open this. Seven minutes waiting for, surprise surprise, yet another shitty HA Goodman article. Can we at least mark posts that are just gonna laugh at Goodman so I can ignore them? It's not really adding much to the conversation.

I know, I'm being all "no fun allowed" but whatever. Blind links are getting so so irritating.
 

pigeon

Banned
My point is that every new country has road-bumps.

What do you know about China? Did you know they have unions? Better wages than they did 10 years ago? That there are labor and safety laws? That the Chinese workforce is becoming increasingly more educated?

What do you imagine when you think of Chinese people working? Sweatshops? The working population of China is almost a billion people, but only 100 million work in manufacturing. Where do the other people work? Are their conditions poor, too? And so what if manufacturing conditions aren't optimal? Do you even know how literally back breaking rice farming is? You think the people of China love their premier for no reason?

Is it even POSSIBLE to industrialize without having serious humans rights abuses? The women working spinning looms used to have their fingers chopped off by the machines. Look up the Triangle Fire.

On the contrary, I think China makes the US look like ugly, wretched dogs in comparison. What a clean, smooth transition to a modern country compared to our long and shitty road.

So like, while I think Kristoffer's overall "screw human rights who needs those" position is huelenical (maybe even kristofferian), and a lot of this post seems crazy, I actually specifically do agree that the whole idea of criticizing China for their labor rights system is colonial. Sending smart people over to other countries to say that they should stop doing things their way because we know better is not really a new idea for Western civilization. Nor does anybody seem to be willing to broach the question of, if we're going to use trade power or whatever to force our labor law expectations on other countries, how do we then provide them with corresponding aid to make sure they can successfully industrialize and get their citizens out of poverty?

But ultimately the reason we're not allies with China has nothing to do with China's labor issues. It isn't even specifically about human rights, although it probably should be because China's whole police state, imprison and murder dissidents thing is pretty bad. It's about China's imperialism and how the state economy ties into it.

A good example of this is the Dr. Strange controversy. Leaving aside the whole issue with replacing an Asian dude with a white woman, the Marvel spokesperson came right out and said that the reason they whitewashed the Ancient One was that China wouldn't let them sell the movie there if it played up Tibet, because China's official policy is to suppress Tibetan culture until it is extinguished. It should be pretty clear why that's problematic, and why the other countries near China have been so interested in American protection and support, and why we're interested in giving it.
 

Hazmat

Member
Do people not think the incredible sexism against two women on a ticket won't play a role? Or is that actually less relevant now.

I think that putting a man on the ticket softens the blow for some of the "diet" sexists. The people who don't say that they don't like the idea of a female president, but also say they can't vote for Hillary because she's shrill or she reminds them of their mom (in a bad way).

I think putting another woman on the ticket does nothing to excite the people that are already excited for a female president. They're already on board.

I think it's a strike against Warren. She's a repeat of the "biggest" thing about Clinton. I think that plus the Republican governor in MA and having MA already locked electorally is going to keep her off the ticket. She's awesome, but she's doing the Lord's work against Trump already and VP is a shitty job anyway.
 

Emarv

Member
Its not going to matter. People vote for the president and not the VP. The folks who don't want to see a woman in the WH are going to vote against Hillary because shes the one running for president, not because Warren is the VP. She could pick a woman, she could pick a white male, she could pick an alien from outer space thats not going to change that.

Warren might not get picked for other reasons but an all women ticket is a positive and not a negative.

Did Sarah Palin not have an impact on John McCain's numbers? I mean, he was going to lose anyway, but I wonder what the empirical evidence is for someone catastrophic like that.
 

Wilsongt

Member
r/S4P are mixed on the univision interview. Some blame Weaver for not prepping him, some say it was a bit bad, and others are saying that Bernie did great and that it doesn't matter if he didn't know anything about Latin America, he's running for president in the US.
 

Emarv

Member
I think the only thing standing in the way of Warren becoming Treasury Secretary is Bill wanting to be "economic czar" or whatever. I'm not sure if she'd want that headache.

Either SoT or stay in the Senate, Warren. You're too lovely to be relegated to VP.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Did Sarah Palin not have an impact on John McCain's numbers? I mean, he was going to lose anyway, but I wonder what the empirical evidence is for someone catastrophic like that.

Palin was a disaster because she was completely unqualified, totally insane and made gaffe after gaffe. Gender didn't have a whole lot to do with it. Don't think someone like Warren is going to have those same issues.

I still don't think Warren as VP will happen but it certainly seems more plausible now than it did even a month ago. Still don't get why she would actually want the position though.
 
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