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PoliGAF Interim Thread of 2008 Early Voting (THE FINAL COUNTDOWN: T MINUS 2 DAYS)

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lawblob said:
What's up with those Ohio numbers?
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A good AA split (94-3) and a HUGE lead among woment (58-33) and early voters ( 71-20 ). PPP will have a poll out this weekend and they are seeing that Ohio looks better for Obama than their polling in Florida did for him, so in relation to the Quinnipac FL numbers maybe it isn't crazy.
 
I noticed Ambinder mentions GOP spending $70m on GOTV. Probably all RNC, which explains why they aren't spending much on ads. I imagine they are even spending money in non-battleground states, just to save some seats.
 
http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

This is the Big 10 poll, which was sort of lolbad last time so I wouldn't use these numbers for anything but general trends:

Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

I really don't think Obama is up 10 in Indiana. :lol , but at the same time the trend towards him in this region has been strong since their last poll.
 
I hope Biden got a boot up his ass. The media's still talking about his damn gaffe. How do you manage to put your candidate and the word crisis in the same sentence weeks before the election?
 
besada said:
I hope Biden got a boot up his ass. The media's still talking about his damn gaffe. How do you manage to out your candidate and the word crisis in the same sentence weeks before the election?
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That's because he thought there were no cameras. I just hope he learns from this and watches his tongue.
 
Fragamemnon said:
A good AA split (94-3) and a HUGE lead among woment (58-33) and early voters ( 71-20 ). PPP will have a poll out this weekend and they are seeing that Ohio looks better for Obama than their polling in Florida did for him, so in relation to the Quinnipac FL numbers maybe it isn't crazy.
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Yeah, but 38 percent? No way. There's clearly some kind of problem with that poll. The wingnut base seems to be more like 40 percent. So that's saying a state with a huge southern contingency (which part of Ohio is for all intent) is gonna buck that trend? I'm calling it as "spiked hopium."

besada said:
I hope Biden got a boot up his ass. The media's still talking about his damn gaffe. How do you manage to put your candidate and the word crisis in the same sentence weeks before the election?
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He's lucky he's not employed by a private institution/corporation. Cause that would have gotten his ass fired. It's mind blowing how inexcusable it was.
 
besada said:
I hope Biden got a boot up his ass. The media's still talking about his damn gaffe. How do you manage to put your candidate and the word crisis in the same sentence weeks before the election?
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Yeah, Biden says some pretty idiotic things. Fortunately Palin's gaffe was worse in terms of substance. Biden gaffes are like "wtf is he out of his mind?" and Palin gaffes are all "dude, she doesn't have a mind." So there you go.
 
Fragamemnon said:
http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

This is the Big 10 poll, which was sort of lolbad last time so I wouldn't use these numbers for anything but general trends:

Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

I really don't think Obama is up 10 in Indiana. :lol , but at the same time the trend towards him in this region has been strong since their last poll.
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Big 10 is a HORRIBLE pollster. They make Zogby State Polls look good, even though they show a good obama lead now, they will randomly show McCain up by like 5% everywhere in a week.
 
+10 in Indiana? Is it time to use the L word?

Cheebs said:
Big 10 is a HORRIBLE pollster. They make Zogby State Polls look good, even though they show a good obama lead now, they will randomly show McCain up by like 5% everywhere in a week.
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oh :(
 
AP poll puts Obama nearly tied with McCain

COMBINED NEWS SERVICES

October 23, 2008

While most national polls continue to have Barack Obama holding a statistically significant lead over John McCain, one survey released yesterday showed McCain within one percentage point of his Democratic rival.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News and Pew Research Center polls out yesterday both put Obama ahead by double digits, but an Associated Press-GfK poll shows Obama with 44 percent support and McCain with 43 percent backing among likely voters. Obama's lead was five percentage points among registered voters in that poll.

The AP poll of 800 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Experts said the unusually tight likely voter outcome was the result of a restrictive approach for defining likely voters that probably excluded many Obama supporters.

POLL BY POLL

The AP poll of 800 likely voters shows Obama with a slight lead over McCain. Among registered voters, Obama is up 5 points.

AP poll

Taken over five days after the final debate Oct. 15.

OBAMA: 44%

MCCAIN: 43%

800 likely voters were surveyedand had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Pew Research Center poll

Conducted Oct. 16-19.

OBAMA: 52%

MCCAIN: 38%

2,599 registered voters weresurveyed and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll

Conducted Oct. 17-20.

OBAMA: 52%

MCCAIN: 42%

Had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Copyright © 2008, Newsday Inc.
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AP: Keeping the race tight so the media still has shit to talk about.
 
besada said:
I hope Biden got a boot up his ass. The media's still talking about his damn gaffe. How do you manage to put your candidate and the word crisis in the same sentence weeks before the election?
Click to expand...

Agreed, I hated how Palin/Mccain were rightly bantering it about in the last few days (And NBC interview). I know Biden is known as a gaffe machine but his comments really were beyond wreckless.
 
Cheebs said:
Big 10 is a HORRIBLE pollster. They make Zogby State Polls look good, even though they show a good obama lead now, they will randomly show McCain up by like 5% everywhere in a week.
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Yeah, they continually poll Ohio State in the top 5... I swear to god if I have to watch one more OSU team get blown out in the BCS final...
 
Diablos said:
AP: Keeping the race tight so the media still has shit to talk about.
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Our office has a pair of TVs in the lobby and some moron keeps putting one of them on Fox.

I go out of my way every morning to change it to something else like ESPN or TVLand.

If I changed it to MSNBC than I could see them getting upset, but it's like they are determined to spread that filth around the office.

Not on my watch, bitch!
 
ToxicAdam said:
I have no idea. I am still waiting for an update to the Nickelodeon poll. I think the Biden remarks are going to move some numbers.
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The blonde girl from Gossip Girl +1 in the Nickelodeon poll.
 
why the hell do i keep on reading about all these problems with the voting systems? i would think with all the resources the US has as well as the time they have to prepare considering that the election is held on a pre-set date compared to other western democracies where they can be called any time.....you would able to do it right considering the fiascos that occured in 2000 & 2004
 
ToxicAdam said:
I have no idea. I am still waiting for an update to the Nickelodeon poll. I think the Biden remarks are going to move some numbers.
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Hopefully Drudge posts it soon.
 
besada said:
I hope Biden got a boot up his ass. The media's still talking about his damn gaffe. How do you manage to put your candidate and the word crisis in the same sentence weeks before the election?
Click to expand...
Is this the one where he talked about Obama will be tested and iron spine?
 
jey_16 said:
why the hell do i keep on reading about all these problems with the voting systems? i would think with all the resources the US has as well as the time they have to prepare considering that the election is held on a pre-set date compared to other western democracies where they can be called any time.....you would able to do it right considering the fiascos that occured in 2000 & 2004
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The problems are intentionally created.
 
syllogism said:
Larry Sabato expects 135-140 million to vote, which would be record breaking
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Last time, it was 62 million - 59 million, where Bush improved his 2000 number by about 12 million and Kerry improved Gore's 2000 number by around 9 million.

If an additional 14 to 19 million people vote this year, and they break in numbers even approximating what some of the polling is saying... Good God. :D
 
quadriplegicjon said:
i have.. i mentioned it in the other thread, but only a few people bothered to reply.. the messed up thing about proposition 2 is that it also takes away benefits from unmarried couples:

http://www.sayno2.com/




there is more detail at the link..
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I voted no.

I buzz through commercials on DVR, but the one commercial I've seen for this amendment was an older straight couple talking about how it would take away their health insurance(?) and people need to vote no.

Expect it to pass, but reading other's posts makes me really surprised by how much of a non-issue it really is. I guess they need to have some kind of amendment on every ballot to get the social conservatives fired up to vote en mass. Wonder how far they'll have to dig for a 2012 amendment.

EDIT: I'm not saying it's a non-issue, just that since it's already been outlawed with previous ballots, it's a non-issue.
 
***EXCLUSIVE: The Republican establishment is beginning to express long-suppressed exasperation with the McCain pirate ship. In an early-morning phone call to Playbook, one of the most senior Republican strategists in the land warns the McCain campaign after reading the WashTimes interview: “Lashing out at past Republican congresses instead of Pelosi and Reid, and echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters. The fact is, when you’re the party standard-bearer, you have an obligation to fight to the finish. I think they can still win. But if they don’t think that, they need to look at how Bob Dole finished out his campaign 1996, and not try to take down as many Republicans with them as they can. Instead of campaigning in electoral-college states, Dole was campaigning in places he knew he didn’t have a chance to beat Clinton, but where he could energize key House and Senate races. I think you’ll find these sentiments shared by MANY of my fellow Republican strategists.”
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Ouch

This is the interview http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/23/mccain-lambastes-bush-years/

e:
PALACE INTRIGUE -- NYT's Adam Nagourney on Mike Murphy -- "A Onetime McCain Insider Is Now Offering Advice (Unwanted) From the Outside": "Mr. McCain has told associates that he has viewed Mr. Murphy’s criticisms of his campaign — its advertisements, his selection of Ms. Palin and Mr. McCain’s aggressive manner — as an act of betrayal, the actions of a former friend seeking attention and a network platform. Mr. McCain was described as particularly incensed that one of Mr. Murphy’s platforms was MSNBC, which Mr. McCain’s campaign has repeatedly treated as an enemy. Mr. McCain has cut off all communications with Mr. Murphy, associates said. And McCain aides, including Steve Schmidt, a chief strategist who worked with Mr. Murphy on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign for governor of California, have stopped talking to him as well, ignoring telephone calls or e-mail messages, according to Republicans close to the campaign. Mr. Murphy, in a brief e-mail comment, said that he was saying only what he believed, and that he still admired Mr. McCain. 'John McCain is a hero to me, but my job as a media analyst is to call it as I see it where campaign strategy is concerned,' Mr. Murphy wrote. 'There’s no disloyalty in honesty.'"
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Has this been posted yet? :lol

ESPN story about Obama and his Fantasy League skills:

It took us 30 minutes to pick nine slots. The man was into it. I said I'd need to talk to him the following week about how we did.

"Cool," he said. "How's Tuesday?"

"Sorry," I said. "Getting married Tuesday."

He looked stunned. "Who'd marry you?"
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:lol

Full story here
 
Got an e-mail from Michael Moore this morning. The message says he'll be appearing on Larry King tonight with a group called "Plumbers for Obama". Love him or hate him, I always loved Michael Moore's sense of humor. :lol
 
My work building is completely deserted just south of the Obama rally in Indy today. We have a ton of union members, young folks, and African-Americans working here so I don't think much will get done today.

Will be heading up to the rally in a couple hours.
 
Rasmussen 52-45 but more interestingly he brags about being praised on 538

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com took a look at all the tracking polls published during the final weeks of this campaign. His overall assessment? “In summation, none of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island.”
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Georgia Early Vote Update

Code: 
Demographic	 39,744 
Black Female	 197,574 
Black Male	 119,368 
White Female	 298,473 
White Male	 242,931 
Asia-PI Female	 2,111 
Asia-PI Male	 1,540 
Hisp-Lt Female	 2,644 
Hisp-Lt Male	 2,089 
Native AM Female	 59 
Native AM Male	 63 
Other	          25,378 
Total	          892,230

  • 66,247 voted yesterday, down about 2,000 votes. They're running at current capacity.
  • The share of the black vote has been really stable - 35.5% today. A week ago it was 36.7%. So far it's not really dropping off.
  • 27% of 2004's total vote is already in.

Next up NC...

syllogism said:
Rasmussen 52-45 but more interestingly he brags about being praised on 538
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Nate's driving a huge amount of traffic lately; last I read it was 600,000 views a day. Amazing how he went from an anonymous Kos Diarist to this in a few months.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Georgia Early Vote Update

Code: 
Demographic	 39,744 
Black Female	 197,574 
Black Male	 119,368 
White Female	 298,473 
White Male	 242,931 
Asia-PI Female	 2,111 
Asia-PI Male	 1,540 
Hisp-Lt Female	 2,644 
Hisp-Lt Male	 2,089 
Native AM Female	 59 
Native AM Male	 63 
Other	          25,378 
Total	          892,230

  • 66,247 voted yesterday, down about 2,000 votes. They're running at current capacity.
  • The share of the black vote has been really stable - 35.5% today. A week ago it was 36.7%. So far it's not really dropping off.
  • 27% of 2004's total vote is already in.

Next up NC...


Nate's driving a huge amount of traffic lately; last I read it was 600,000 views a day. Amazing how he went from an anonymous Kos Diarist to this in a few months.
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if its 2% of 2004 voting daily that means by November 3rd, 53% of georgia would have already voted?
 
BrandNew said:
I'd rather have gallup, personally, but they're both good.
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I was thinking about this the other day. You know how we all scoff at ioi's vg*chartz? Whose to say any of these polls have the same kind of credibility that his site does? Just because other newspapers parrot their findings, does that make them valid?
 
In this image -

orock.jpg


Drudge has redeemed himself. A torrent of newly minted McCain POW footage can't tarnish you in my eyes now Matt!
 
ToxicAdam said:
I was thinking about this the other day. You know how we all scoff at ioi's vg*chartz? Whose to say any of these polls have the same kind of credibility that his site does? Just because other newspapers parrot their findings, does that make them valid?
Click to expand...

To continue with this analogy, election time is NPD day. That's when we find out who was right to within 3/10 of a point, who just got the positions right and who's wearing clownshoes (Zogby).
 
North Carolina Early Vote Update

Code: 
Party ID    Daily      Total      %
DEM         77,860     432,846    56%
LIB         72         381        0%
REP         38,033     208,440    27%
UNA         23,504     127,094    17%

Total       768,761    768,761

  • Like Georgia, the daily amount was down a touch, back to what it was the day before. They appear to be running at capacity.
  • The black vote is likewise holding fairly steady at 28.8%, up from last week but flat for a few days running.
  • 22% of all 2004 votes are now in. (Gaining about 4% per day.)

Side note: 470,849 have voted in Florida. So over 300,000 voted yesterday alone.


artredis1980 said:
if its 2% of 2004 voting daily that means by November 3rd, 53% of georgia would have already voted?
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Yup. And apparantly they're going to add polling stations next week, so the daily numbers will go up; like NC they're running at full capacity.
Jason's Ultimatum said:
I don't know, but when it came to likely voters, Gallup was only .5% off in 2004.

Anyway, looking at 538, Obama is losing his hopium when it comes to win %.
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Obama gained the last two days.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
Wasn't Obama's win % at some point 97%? Maybe I was dreaming up the number.
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Yeah, I recall McCain's bottoming out at about 4.1%, then going up a bit. It was over 7% two days ago and dipped since then. Just bouncing around.

Note too that Nate's model projects the race to tighten several points from where it is now before the election. So far, that's not happening. So if it doesn't, he's lowballing Obama.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
Wasn't Obama's win % at some point 97%? Maybe I was dreaming up the number.
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It was, but it dropped to 93 a few days ago and now it's a bit higher.

Then again, none of these figures really mean anything.
 
Will early voting results be available to the public and the networks on the 4th, or will everyone be relying on exit polls?
 
duderon said:
Will early voting results be available to the public and the networks on the 4th, or will everyone be relying on exit polls?
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Exit polls, though I imagine they'll try a bit harder not to leak them this time. And probably fail.
 
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