AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
I was going to say this, but God of War, Bioshock and Gears will do > 1 million easy.
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Predict the bombas of Q1
- Thread starter Visualante2
- Start date
I was going to say this, but God of War, Bioshock and Gears will do > 1 million easy.
Canis lupus
Member
DmC: Devil May Cry
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2
Anarchy Reigns
February
Dead Space 3
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time
Aliens: Colonial Marines
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance
But I don't care, I know I'll enjoy these games.
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2
Anarchy Reigns
February
Dead Space 3
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time
Aliens: Colonial Marines
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance
But I don't care, I know I'll enjoy these games.
Napalm_Frank
Member
Anarchy Reigns, Sly Cooper, Aliens: Colonial Marines, Army of Two, Fuse and The Wonderful 101 will bomba. I think Ni no kuni will do fine concidering it probably has very low expectations. DMC will be a hit and million seller. I have no idea what Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 is so no comment on that one.
GuitarAtomik
Member
I didn't realize DMC is largely uncontested in January. I think its large amount of exposure/buzz combined with the largely positive feedback for the demo will mean it will do just fine. I think MGR is going to do ok solely based on the fact that it's a Metal Gear game. People are sleeping on Sniper Ghost Warrior too. I'm sure the budget for that is low enough that it will do really well (I'm pretty sure the first did despite most of GAF not knowing about it).
The only ones on that list I would put money on bombing are:
Ni No Kuni: I have a feeling they spent way too much on localization and it's not just a JRPG, it's a niche JRPG.
Anarchy Reigns: This will be sent to die. I think we all know that. I'm betting most of the people who really wanted it already imported it as well.
Fuse: Besides being a new IP releasing in one of the most crowded months of the first quarter, I really feel like Army of Two is going to cannibalize a lot of its sales.
Other notables: I think Rayman, Pikmin, and Wonderful 101 will do just fine since people will be starving for new WiiU content. Aliens is a toss up since it's had a lot of bad buzz but I wouldn't count it out with it being an FPS with a license that will also have a lot of WiiU exposure. I think everything else will do just fine.
The only ones on that list I would put money on bombing are:
Ni No Kuni: I have a feeling they spent way too much on localization and it's not just a JRPG, it's a niche JRPG.
Anarchy Reigns: This will be sent to die. I think we all know that. I'm betting most of the people who really wanted it already imported it as well.
Fuse: Besides being a new IP releasing in one of the most crowded months of the first quarter, I really feel like Army of Two is going to cannibalize a lot of its sales.
Other notables: I think Rayman, Pikmin, and Wonderful 101 will do just fine since people will be starving for new WiiU content. Aliens is a toss up since it's had a lot of bad buzz but I wouldn't count it out with it being an FPS with a license that will also have a lot of WiiU exposure. I think everything else will do just fine.
Interfectum
Gold Member
Fuse will be the biggest bomb, easily.
sixteen-bit
Member
Fuse for sure.
Anarchy Reigns.
Gears Judgment won't sell as well as the numbered titles.
Anarchy Reigns.
Gears Judgment won't sell as well as the numbered titles.
Army of Two released in early 2008 when we were still getting a lot of new Flavor of the Month IPs. People were a lot more willing to try out new things if the marketing campaign was catchy. However, the first Army of Two wasn't all that great and its sequel sold poorly in comparison. I don't even know why they are bothering with a third game.
First party Sony games typically have unspectacular debuts. Even back in the PS1/PS2 days. It took them 15 years before one of their games broke 1M first month (God of War 3).
I think some people need perspective on what bombing is. I highly doubt Namco Bandai is expecting much out of Ni No Kuni or Sega with Anarchy Reigns.
But yeah, I see Dead Space and their 'AAAA' ness not reaching anywhere near that amount. Aliens will also bomb. I had to laugh when Sega said that was their major franchise. Sega of all people should know it's not the 80s anymore.
But yeah, I see Dead Space and their 'AAAA' ness not reaching anywhere near that amount. Aliens will also bomb. I had to laugh when Sega said that was their major franchise. Sega of all people should know it's not the 80s anymore.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
I think some of you are giving Army of Two too much credit thinking it has a large budget. I think it is just an asset dump of the last games and just created new levels.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
Daegan said:
I'd expect DS3 to shift ~2mil globally long-term; which is good for what it is, but its a well established -and generally well-liked- franchise at this point.
I agree that suggesting it will ever get much bigger is very unlikely, but hey, they can hope
Trying to make it more action-y is a bad idea, and hopefully they'll have taken note of the reception that the last RE got so as not to fall into the same trap. I'm cautiously optimistic as its a series that I've always felt exceeded expectations.
I could see them delaying it to 720, just wasn't Gears 3 meant to be out last April and was delayed until Christmas? I could see them doing something similar...
I'm going to be seriously annoyed if SCEA does what they always do and manage to release another game with little to no marketing.
They messed up almost every game from 2011 that wasn't LBP2 and Uncharted 3, Twisted Metal, Starhawk, LBP Karting (that was a given), and PSASBR from the looks of things yet I see wonderbook commercials on TV. WONDERBOOK!?!?!
I saw a few PSASBR ads and they were so cut up it made no sense. I don't even know what they were trying to sell to me, and nobody would recognize any of the characters except Kratos and that one second sackboy showed up in. It was fine as a trailer, but its a half assed attempt at a commercial. Gameplay would have been much better.
The only reason I knew about sly in the first place were those commercials of sly 3 back in the day on saturday morning cartoons. Considering that got commercials, thieves in times should too.
I imagine the game tanking, and I'm blaming it all on SCEA again.
I'm going to go back to play PSASBR and starhawk. F U SCEA.
They messed up almost every game from 2011 that wasn't LBP2 and Uncharted 3, Twisted Metal, Starhawk, LBP Karting (that was a given), and PSASBR from the looks of things yet I see wonderbook commercials on TV. WONDERBOOK!?!?!
I saw a few PSASBR ads and they were so cut up it made no sense. I don't even know what they were trying to sell to me, and nobody would recognize any of the characters except Kratos and that one second sackboy showed up in. It was fine as a trailer, but its a half assed attempt at a commercial. Gameplay would have been much better.
The only reason I knew about sly in the first place were those commercials of sly 3 back in the day on saturday morning cartoons. Considering that got commercials, thieves in times should too.
I imagine the game tanking, and I'm blaming it all on SCEA again.
I'm going to go back to play PSASBR and starhawk. F U SCEA.
walking fiend
Member
underlined.
I think most of the games in established and healthy franchises will do over bomba level.
Wii U games will probably not sell much, but sell enough to make some profit.
Hmm.
Aliens: Colonial Marines
Bioshock Infinite
Crysis 3
I think the end result here could be that all three end up underperforming if not straight up bombing as they are all appealing to the same market. The same market that will still be playing Halo 4 and Black Ops 2 (as a LOT of people will be getting into both of those games come Christmas). I would not be surprised if both of them ended up selling more then all three when they release.
Bioshock Infinite
Crysis 3
I think the end result here could be that all three end up underperforming if not straight up bombing as they are all appealing to the same market. The same market that will still be playing Halo 4 and Black Ops 2 (as a LOT of people will be getting into both of those games come Christmas). I would not be surprised if both of them ended up selling more then all three when they release.
AranhaHunter
Banned
I highly doubt MLB 13 The Show will bomba. It's, by far, the best baseball sim out there.
Shtof
Member
The difference here is that Uncharted 3 and LBP2 scored in the low to mid 90's, while those other games are all well below the 80's on the Metacritics.
Littlegator
Banned
Holy Frijoles:
How is this game cut down to 30 bux 2 months before release? now I *have* to get it just to have Bayonetta
It's not a bomba, launch MSRP is $30.
HocusPocus
Member
January
DmC: Devil May Cry
February
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time
March
Army of Two: The Devil's cartel
Rayman Legends
I'm only considering games with some money behind them. Some of those on the list are too small time to even consider bombs imho.
DmC: Devil May Cry
February
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time
March
Army of Two: The Devil's cartel
Rayman Legends
I'm only considering games with some money behind them. Some of those on the list are too small time to even consider bombs imho.
GravityMan
Member
The only game in that entire list that will be a definitive hit is Tomb Raider.
Most of the rest will bomb. A few of them (Crysis 3, Bioshock Infinite) will have mediocre sales. Games like Ni No Kuni will probably have low sales expectations to begin with.
I don't expect many hits throughout the entirety of 2013. I expect A LOT of bombs. Maybe The Last of Us, Watch Dogs and Beyond: Two Souls will sell pretty well. And of course, the usual suspects (e.g. the next Call of Duty, Madden, etc.).
People are getting tired of the current consoles, and the dwindling sales of console games will reflect that.
Most of the rest will bomb. A few of them (Crysis 3, Bioshock Infinite) will have mediocre sales. Games like Ni No Kuni will probably have low sales expectations to begin with.
I don't expect many hits throughout the entirety of 2013. I expect A LOT of bombs. Maybe The Last of Us, Watch Dogs and Beyond: Two Souls will sell pretty well. And of course, the usual suspects (e.g. the next Call of Duty, Madden, etc.).
People are getting tired of the current consoles, and the dwindling sales of console games will reflect that.
SuperSonic1305
Member
Did people forget how much God of War 3 did in a single month?
chertipros
Member
This is SCEA though. There is a good chance they will fuck up the marketing
I think Sony still cares about Sly. I'll do my part and try to pick it up as quick as possible.
Meccanical
Member
If I had my way, DmC would be a bomba.
This'll be fun.
January
DmC: Devil May Cry- it will be a disapointment in every way
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch- Too niche,that audience isn't big enough anymore
February
Dead Space 3- it will do fine, but not what EA wants.
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time- another Sony bomb because of their terrible marketing
Aliens: Colonial Marines- surprise hit
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance- it will do ok, I can see it stealing DMc people
Bioshock Infinite-huge hit
Crysis 3- hit
March
MLB 13: The Show- it's the best and only game in town.
SimCity- huge
Tomb Raider- best selling TR game ever
God of War: Ascension- GoW always does huge numbers
Gears of War: Judgement-it will do good, but it will be the lowest selling title in the series
Army of Two: The Devil's cartel- epic fucking bomb
Fuse-I'm praying for insomniac
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate- it'll do enough
Rayman Legends- I think this will surprise
January
DmC: Devil May Cry- it will be a disapointment in every way
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch- Too niche,that audience isn't big enough anymore
February
Dead Space 3- it will do fine, but not what EA wants.
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time- another Sony bomb because of their terrible marketing
Aliens: Colonial Marines- surprise hit
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance- it will do ok, I can see it stealing DMc people
Bioshock Infinite-huge hit
Crysis 3- hit
March
MLB 13: The Show- it's the best and only game in town.
SimCity- huge
Tomb Raider- best selling TR game ever
God of War: Ascension- GoW always does huge numbers
Gears of War: Judgement-it will do good, but it will be the lowest selling title in the series
Army of Two: The Devil's cartel- epic fucking bomb
Fuse-I'm praying for insomniac
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate- it'll do enough
Rayman Legends- I think this will surprise
Shtof
Member
God of War 3 had hype levels unseen before and after in the H&S genre. Ascension will sell well, but it probably won't convince new customers.
By the way, pretty impressive how God of War 3 sold better than the prequels even with pretty much only a third or fourth of the install base.
pieatorium
Member
Thas a pretty big call since the PS1 era games sold 7mill+
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Its the only baseball game now.
When you have a monopoly on a license for a fairly popular American sport there is basically a 0% chance of bomba. Pretty confused that anybody thinks it could "bomba", it'll be the best selling version to date and by a pretty significant margin. And thats regardless if its actually good or not.
Sony really should be selling it hard this year with a system bundle. Those poor baseball fans with only a 360 won't have a choice (not like they did before, 2k series was just garbage) but to actually buy a PS3 this year if they want an up to date baseball game.
Messofanego
Banned
The day production budgets are released for all games is the day I'll care about game sales. It's all relative, yet we all go on the AAA $50 million budget scale.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
The first time a series from an old system debuts on a new system it tends to do better than the games that come after it.
The rest were second party games for a niche audience.
They didnt mess every game just second party games most likly.
Their marketing can improve though but yeah All stars was a disaster
InFamous 2 did very welll as well.
They will fuck up their own first party game that too from their own region ? Doubt it.
God of war / TLOU/ Beyound will get a lot of marketing just like how killzone/infamous/uncharted/lpb got.
Sly wont but they should released it as a 40$ title though
HAMMEROFJUSTICE
Neo Member
the games that neogaf decides are terrible, will sell.
opposite also applies.
opposite also applies.
revolverjgw
Member
Sly 4 will bomb and that will be very, very sad
Yeah
Hope it does 500/700k WW i guess that would be enough though i doubt it will do that much
I bought Crysis 2 on PC about 5 months later for $5. Crysis 3 might be heading in the same direction, full priced shooters are really struggling right now unless they have a big franchise name attached to it (CoD, BF, and Halo).
EA is kind of struggling overall right now it seems like. ToR bombing, I've already seen MoH drop below $20, I have a feeling Dead Space might be aimed towards the lowest common denominator.
Speaking of Dead Space people might be apprehensive over RE6 being aimed at the lowest common denominator as well, they might wait for word of mouth and it could be very poor.
Similar to how the Transformer and Twilight movies always sell so many tickets.
Target those with little mind and you will make easy money.
EA is kind of struggling overall right now it seems like. ToR bombing, I've already seen MoH drop below $20, I have a feeling Dead Space might be aimed towards the lowest common denominator.
Speaking of Dead Space people might be apprehensive over RE6 being aimed at the lowest common denominator as well, they might wait for word of mouth and it could be very poor.
Similar to how the Transformer and Twilight movies always sell so many tickets.
Target those with little mind and you will make easy money.
They pushed Gears 3 back because they realized Halo 4 was going to take longer. Black Tusk's new IP is going to fill the Gears role on 720. MS doesn't need Gears anymore if that takes off, which is likely why they seem to be sending this to die.
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