Alx
Member
Not likely. It's a story pushed by the press (as they should), but I don't think any of the candidates would want to start inquiries for abusive remunerations, since it would be like opening Pandora's box.
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Pro-EU Macron surges in French election polls
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Not likely. It's a story pushed by the press (as they should), but I don't think any of the candidates would want to start inquiries for abusive remunerations, since it would be like opening Pandora's box.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Regarding Dutch elections:
Geert Wilders has been at the top of the polls. But recent polling has him going down some points. The thing about him is that none of the major parties will work with him to form a government, even Rutte, likely to be second if not first (if lucky), has very recently said the chances of forming a government with Wilders is '0% percent' in his words. So even if he wins, he will likely not be able to form a government.
Geert Wilders has been at the top of the polls. But recent polling has him going down some points. The thing about him is that none of the major parties will work with him to form a government, even Rutte, likely to be second if not first (if lucky), has very recently said the chances of forming a government with Wilders is '0% percent' in his words. So even if he wins, he will likely not be able to form a government.
SolarPowered
Member
A pro EU independent popular with the young? Sounds like they've got their own version of Sanders over there. Sounds a bit too good to be true.
If I read correctly, he's more of a Clinton. He's essentially a centrist candidate that could push the left-leaning electorate to vote for him if he makes it to the second round.
tbh he stands mostly on the center-right on economic issues (i. e. pro-free market stance, which isn't that common in French politics) but also defends social liberalism, immigration and welfare. In the US he'd clearly be a democrat but in France, neither left nor right is accurate.
SolarPowered
Member
If I were French I'd take whoever I can get so long as they're Pro EU.
Read up on Macron. If you think he's like Sanders you're un fou.
Yeah, same here, actually. I'm hoping Macron beats Fillion for the second round since Le Pen is more likely than not making it through.
Alx
Member
That's basically my stance. Any economic and social policy may have its rights and wrongs that can be fixed later. But destroying EU is for ever. Fortunately most candidates are pro-EU.
Yeah I guess Mélenchon would be the closest to Sanders' phenomenon. Also far left, popular with the young (and also a bit old
), but not really pro EU.Ether_Snake
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So will Trump's recent actions i spire the French to vote for LePen, or do the opposite?
I would assume the later. but who knows. A lot can happen until then. If the EU looks like it will collapse by then then the French will out.
I would assume the later. but who knows. A lot can happen until then. If the EU looks like it will collapse by then then the French will out.
Ether_Snake
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hydrophilic attack
Member
You have been predicting the end of the EU for years here on gaf. Whatever happens it seems it will be the cause for the end of the EU in your head
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
So FrenchGAF, realistically, how are his chances?
Alx
Member
Decent, but he's still the outsider. He has two things going for him right now : best dynamics among the candidates, and current favorite Fillon has a small scandal going on for hiring his wife and kids for potentially "fake" jobs. But he's still behind in polls (latest polls for first round were around 25% for Fillon & Le Pen, 20% for Macron)
Things can change a lot in three months, but if Fillon falls then Macron becomes favorite (and before anybody asks, yes Macron should easily win against Le Pen, he's actually rating higher against her than Fillon).
Both Le Pen and Fillon being under investigation at the moment, it all depends on his ability to make it to the second round right now. If he does, he becomes the favourite. Remember that both Fillon and Hamon were the third man in polls before their primaries (polls being different for the general election but still).
Things can still happen though. The "real" campaign only starts tomorrow, with the socialist candidate officially on tracks, and Macron probably won't unveil his program until February.
harriet the spy
Member
It's not happening guys. Every time we have a surge of the center to mysteriously collapse on Election Day. Last time Bayrou this time Macron. A centrist millionaire who is pro immigration and worked for Rothschild, went to elite high school, yadda yadda.
He is a decent guy but the optics on this are not good for him.
He is a decent guy but the optics on this are not good for him.
Alx
Member
Well usually such candidates burst their bubble before the election indeed, but this time it's more open than it's ever been. Voters usually abandon outsiders for "safe" candidates at the last minute, except that we don't have many of them this time, what with the Fillon story and the PS in disarray.
Macron still has a long way to go to strengthen his position, though. A lot may change once he'll start detailing his official program.
Macron still has a long way to go to strengthen his position, though. A lot may change once he'll start detailing his official program.
He's got no party behind him. In France, it's a death sentence if you're not Charles de Gaulle.
His only (very real) chance would be the following : a second round against Marine Le Pen.
Given the recent Fillon scandal, and the fact that Hamon is way too much on the left side for a lot of the moderate voters, it's not an unlikely scenario.
In this case, there would be a sort of national union granting him sufficient support.
harriet the spy
Member
It certainly would be fascinating if France of all places elected a pro-globalization, pro-market and pro-immigrant candidate in this day and age.
Alx
Member
It's rare but it happens. Giscard got elected in a very similar situation.
France needs that exact candidate. Macron can save france from awful policies enacted by a string of terrible leftist governments while warding off the idiotic far right.
If france fails to elect macron, its pretty much guaranteed to continue its decades long stagnation.
BadenBadenLily
Banned
Well the other two choices are Trump and Reagan.
Phantast2k
Member
Someone needs to make a French election OT.
Especially since there is currently quite a lot of damaging news regarding Le Pen's biggest rival, Fillon.
Especially since there is currently quite a lot of damaging news regarding Le Pen's biggest rival, Fillon.
Darkstorne
Member
He would be amazing for the EU as a whole. Part of its image problem is old and bland politicians who are set in their ways. Having someone relatively young and charismatic like this talking up the potential strengths of the EU and the ways France can work to improve it... that's something a lot of Europeans would be happy to see.
Le Pen is facing bad news too, only difference is that she's not the favourite. Only news I can find about it are in French.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/pr...arine-le-pen-sommee-de-payer-340000-euros.php
If we get a Le Pen - Mélenchon second round however it'll be time to panic (right now, it's HIGHLY unlikely)
Chairman Yang
if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
It's the arbitrary, destructive, and toxic left-right divide that's the real joke.
Pro-market and pro-globalization in France would still be much in favor of social system and redistribution.
We need to end the injustice of all the economic growth going to the 1% and the lower classes getting it worse and worse while being told that either everyone is going better than ever or that it's the fault of immigrants (the far right).
fierrotlepou
Member
Polls don't mean shit and you know it.
Another macron supporter!
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Any Macron supporters voting at the socialist primary election today?
Palette Swap
Member
This is an accurate assessment IMO. There's still the novelty of his candidacy and the character, but I expect all this to wither away by the first round. As much as I'd like to see him over Fillon or Le Pen, I'm expecting major shit to be slung his way over the next few months. It's both in Le Pen's and Fillon's best interests to keep him down, as they offer each other their best shot at the presidency.
That's the very narrow path a social liberal would have to walk today: manage to demonstrate that your open approach would mean better redistribution, would benefit actual people and would address their current anxieties.
I don't know that this path exists, but I'd love to see it. If only because what we really lack now are positive political projects. I'm so tired of everyone being mad at everyone else while we regress.
Yep (for islamo-leftist Hamon)
I'm not super pumped about this, Macron is perhaps a good example of unrestricted neo-liberalism that will continue to sink lower and middle classes. However it does feels nice to see that the FN does not have a commanding lead. Sadly since last year I'm more and more sceptical about polls being accurate with a lot of far-right voices not being heard in the population.
Yes, our 2 round system will be a strong bloc against Le Pen, so her being elected is still quite unlikely but the FN needs to be destroyed not only in the polls but also in the public opinion, we need to show that not only it's a racist/fascist party but most of her platform would be a disaster for the country.
I'm actually more scared of Fillon though. If the nightmare scenario of a Le Pen wins happen, a FN majority at the legislative election will be even harder to get, so she might be a president with limited power and possibly a govt from an other party. However in case of a Fillion win, it's very likely that he'll get a majority in the parliament and will be able to pass everything with almost no hurdles, like gutting the whole public service and healthcare.
I'm feeling super down on this election anyway. I would really like to see Hamon win the socialist primary and just going full on "bernie" but like many people say, he's way too left-wing for most of France right now. But who knows.
But yeah I'm glad I'll be moving to Canada right before this shitshow and hopefully find a way to stay there.
Yes, our 2 round system will be a strong bloc against Le Pen, so her being elected is still quite unlikely but the FN needs to be destroyed not only in the polls but also in the public opinion, we need to show that not only it's a racist/fascist party but most of her platform would be a disaster for the country.
I'm actually more scared of Fillon though. If the nightmare scenario of a Le Pen wins happen, a FN majority at the legislative election will be even harder to get, so she might be a president with limited power and possibly a govt from an other party. However in case of a Fillion win, it's very likely that he'll get a majority in the parliament and will be able to pass everything with almost no hurdles, like gutting the whole public service and healthcare.
I'm feeling super down on this election anyway. I would really like to see Hamon win the socialist primary and just going full on "bernie" but like many people say, he's way too left-wing for most of France right now. But who knows.
But yeah I'm glad I'll be moving to Canada right before this shitshow and hopefully find a way to stay there.
If by Macron supporter you mean people who'll most likely vote for him then yeah I voted for Hamon this morning.
Alx
Member
Well "fortunately" our anglo-saxon future-ex-allies may offer a good way to show precisely that. UK will be a good example of what being anti-EU implies, and the US will show what happens when you try to "kick out all the Muslims".
MonsieurPaul
Neo Member
What's concerning me is that Le Pen has full support from Putin.
Now that Fillion is in difficulty, I do hope that we won't have last minute scandal about Macron.
Now that Fillion is in difficulty, I do hope that we won't have last minute scandal about Macron.
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