E3 at the most.
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PS4 sells 322,083 units in two days in Japan
- Thread starter Takao
- Start date
E3 at the most.
PirateKing
Junior Member
Liabe Brave
Member
Well, a mildly autistic mongoose could've made such a milquetoast claim without fear of failure (provided they occasionally read Media Create threads). Given the Japanese context, "do okay but not record-setting" was closer to common sense than to a prediction.
Now this is much bolder. For your prediction to be true, the coming weekly sales of PS4 would need to max out at something like 90k/45k/30k/20k/15k. Given the game lineup, such numbers don't seem implausible on first blush.
But in reality that would be an epic cliff drop, selling far fewer units post-launch than WiiU and about as many as Vita, two recent disasters. But absolute numbers don't tell the half of it, because going by percentages? Well, then it'd be a far worse decline than PS3, Gameboy Micro, PSP Go, WonderSwan Color--faith and begorrah, it'd be worse even than the Gamecube. The only machines in the past 14 years to fall off quicker are Microsoft's two consoles.
So I applaud you for making such an extreme prediction. We'll have to see how it goes.
Devilgunman
Member
You're seriously underestimate FFXIV. It is one of the most popular MMO in Japan right now and PS3 users (which I think most JP players are) get a free upgrade to PS4. This game alone might be able to stabilize PS4 sale for a while.
Thanks mate.
Yes i know
I edited my post..its on thursdays so it would be on March 20th..not 18th...
I think you have a valid point, but FFXIV players intending to upgrade to PS4 for the game might have done so already since the beta was available at launch.
Considering yourself and others were pegging it at 150K, yeah, the numbers are great. Looks like Sony just sorted out their supply issues.
Or, on the flip side, be waiting for their existing characters to become available in April.
Devilgunman
Member
Not all of them will since you can't import your character to the beta and the characters created in the first phase won't be transfered to the full game. I can see majority of them wait for the full release.
Yoshi-P going to be pushing hard for people to upgrade so he can cut off the PS3 version ASAP...
I kinda doubt that a ton of people would be that willing to upgrade in order to play a game they already own.
Dragon1893
Member
That's pretty good, let's see where it goes from here.
AmethystEnd
Member
So the metric fuck ton of people clamoring for next gen ports of GTAV, The Last of Us, Dark Souls 2 (not out yet, but this'll be valid in a couple weeks), hell, even Skyrim (god knows why), are....what, exactly?
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
I don't really agree. If the lineup stays as it is, I'd say good sales would be a bad sign, not for console viability, but for Japanese style games. If they are irrlevant for the sales, even in Japan, no console maker will focus on that anymore. Good sales should come when they are appropiate. As for launch, they at least had Yakuza, so it's fine
. Good launch btw.It'll be interesting to see if Sony and square enix can convince FFXIV players to upgrade. Nintendo and SE largely couldn't convince Wii owners to upgrade to Wii U. And we seen the results of that.
theprodigy
Member
Devilgunman
Member
PS3 version is very handicapped compared to PC, and by handicapped I mean its technical deficiency severely affects gameplay. I think upgrading to PS4 is the best way to play the game for JP players, unless they want to build a PC instead.
KZObsessed
Member
322,000 out of 350,000 is pretty good. Not amazing, but not bad. As good as you can expect these days outside of the holiday. The question is how do they keep the momentum, because the release schedule is barren. They need to at least start announcing games for the Japanese market.
Worldwide PS4 should be around 6 million now though. nice.
Worldwide PS4 should be around 6 million now though. nice.
My first statement was somewhat sarcastic, obviously most people got that far, but I understand that sarcasm can be lost on the net.
My prediction isn't honestly that implausible.. Let's quickly set a boundary for "not much above 500k" and call it 535k as a nice number. I don't think a 2nd week number of ~80k is completely out the blue here considering that the Vita dropped 75% in the holiday period and a 75% drop for the PS4 would bring us to ~80.5K. At 403k, it'd need 132k to be "significantly" above 500k in 3 weeks. This is an average of around 44k a week for march.
...With Ground Zeroes launching I'm 2nd guessing myself now, but I don't think it'd out of the realm of possibility for week 3 to be 50k and and then weeks 4 and 5 to be in the 30,000s or lower.
There's a difference between people buying/wanting next gen ports on their new consoles and a ton of people buying a PS4 to get their free upgrade of FFXIV when they are already own the game. I expect people to buy the console to play the game but I'm not expecting the game to sell well enough to support the PS4 on its own for a period of time.
FalsettoVibe
Member
Not bad at all.
7mil by end of March doesn't seem very far fetched now
Anticitizen One
Banned
Since it did better than ps3 and is the 3rd best launch in modern Japan history...does this mean Japenese developers will come in early to start making games for it since the install base is big and only going to get bigger from here?
Unknown Soldier
Member
I guess those people who were predicting Japan bomba can get their servings of crow now.
Special mention goes to the guy who took a picture of PS4s on a store shelf and claimed mega-bomba from it.
Special mention goes to the guy who took a picture of PS4s on a store shelf and claimed mega-bomba from it.
Well the Wii U also had a similarly good launch and we saw where that went. The thing to do here is keep up with the Media Create sales figures over the next few weeks, because the numbers don't guarantee anything (it could flop, it could thrive who knows).
(also the PS3 was severely supply constrained even for weeks after launch, if they had 350k of them in Japan at launch I don't doubt they would have sold them all).
Anticitizen One
Banned
PirateKing
Junior Member
Okay cool.
I really miss the golden age of JRPG like the PS1 and PS2 era
PS4 will do fine, but i have lost faith in Japanese developers.They're either avoiding this thread, or the one's I've spotted have moved the goalposts to "not good enough". Isn't it the third best launch in Japan ever? Should hit 500K this week.
WOW You completely missed the party bro
Kameo still looks damn good to this day. I thought the game was the best looking launch game for 360 by far and held up so well throughout the entire generation and still looks nice even today.
EDIT Oh wait...Project Gothem 3 was also bad ass for a launch game.
Canis lupus
Member
Lol at people predicting 100-150k in the prediction thread. I had it at 340k, pretty close.
If they waited for this to greenlight their games
it's gonna be a while before we actually get to play them...
maybe more cross gen games?
Unknown Soldier
Member
If PS4 has enough momentum and stock to hit 500k the first week, I might be cautiously optimistic enough to declare console gaming saved in Japan. Of course after that then they'll go into perpetual #thirst mode like the rest of the world and wait for more shipments to trickle in.
Okay cool.
I really miss the golden age of JRPG like the PS1 and PS2 era
Yeah things are definitely not the same these days but yeah PS4 will do fine in other regions.
keisuke999
Member
I recall all the analysts saying that FF15 won't come out until the PS4 has sold at least 4 million units or something, based on previous hardware sales and when previous FF games came out.
Welp, we're almost at 6 million.... any day now Square Enix
Welp, we're almost at 6 million.... any day now Square Enix
pieatorium
Member
I recall all the analysts saying that FF15 won't come out until the PS4 has sold at least 4 million units or something, based on previous hardware sales and when previous FF games came out.
Welp, we're almost at 6 million.... any day now Square Enix
pretty sure it was less than 4 mill and speaking about only japan not ww
I appreciate the stab at humor, but please don't use autism as a pejorative like this. As a parent of an autistic kid (not mongoose) I winced a bit reading this. In your context it's a half step from using "retarded" and is really not appropriate. You can bring teh funny without doing that.
Dec 2014any day now Square Enix
Believe