Moral Panic
Member
Thank you. That was like the exact answer to my conundrum.
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PS4's 1 million plus pre-orders are "way over" that of PS2 and PS3
- Thread starter Canis lupus
- Start date
Thank you. That was like the exact answer to my conundrum.
This really means nothing. Pre-orders in general have been increasing and all the newer consoles are always gonna get more pre-orders than the previous consoles that came before. The Wii U for example is the 2nd worst selling Nintendo console and yet it got more pre-orders than the original Wii.
500,000 systems ready on November 15th for north america
500,000 systems ready for every other territory on November 29th
1,000,000 more shipped world wide in December for a total of roughly 2 million shipped in 2013. These units will sell out just fine.
2014 is where things will get interesting. Certainly for the Jan-Mar fiscal quarter Sony will attempt to ship 2-3 million more consoles and I suspect demand is there for at least 1 million. Also , I'd anticipate a Japanese launch before the end of march so that sony has PS4 worldwide by the end of their fiscal year.
That breakdown will likely look something like this -
January - February - March
NA 250,000 250,000 250,000
EU 250,000 250,000 250,000
JP - - 500,000
Future production/shipping will be based entirely on re-orders and sales success but I think at least the above will end up shipping.
The rest of 2014, if the PS4 ends up being successful (I'm convinced it'll do better , much better, than the wii U and Vita but I'm not sure it'll reach PS2/360/DSlite success) it's safe to say the rest of 2014 will look like this , note that I assume another plant/line is opened up to try to build up inventory for assumed holiday demand and that unshipped inventory from earlier in the year would also be used to beef up shipments for later in the year.
APR/JUN - JUL/SEP - OCT/DEC
NA 600K 600K 2000K
EU 600K 600K 1500K
JP 600K 600K 1000K
If we assume fairly successful sales worldwide through the end of 2014 the tally will be around 12 million shipped. I recall reading sony was aiming for 14 million but I think that will take longer for various reasons. As far as I'm concerned , 12 million is probably the best they'll do but that's still very good.
The Wii U will be lucky to have shipped 7 million units in the same time frame and I believe it's sell through rate will be only around 60-70% versus the 75-80% sellthrough on PS4.
For shits and giggles , I predict the Xbone will ship about 60% of the PS4 within this same time frame. Microsoft won't ship as many either , so their sell through will be a higher % but lower total sales. Basically, I see MS shipping 7-8 million xbox ones' similar numbers to the wii U but instead of only selling 4-5 million of them they will sell 6-7 million of them. This will mostly be a price thing. A true console war won't start until the 2 consoles are much closer to retail parity. Or at least within 20-30$ instead of 100$.
500,000 systems ready for every other territory on November 29th
1,000,000 more shipped world wide in December for a total of roughly 2 million shipped in 2013. These units will sell out just fine.
2014 is where things will get interesting. Certainly for the Jan-Mar fiscal quarter Sony will attempt to ship 2-3 million more consoles and I suspect demand is there for at least 1 million. Also , I'd anticipate a Japanese launch before the end of march so that sony has PS4 worldwide by the end of their fiscal year.
That breakdown will likely look something like this -
January - February - March
NA 250,000 250,000 250,000
EU 250,000 250,000 250,000
JP - - 500,000
Future production/shipping will be based entirely on re-orders and sales success but I think at least the above will end up shipping.
The rest of 2014, if the PS4 ends up being successful (I'm convinced it'll do better , much better, than the wii U and Vita but I'm not sure it'll reach PS2/360/DSlite success) it's safe to say the rest of 2014 will look like this , note that I assume another plant/line is opened up to try to build up inventory for assumed holiday demand and that unshipped inventory from earlier in the year would also be used to beef up shipments for later in the year.
APR/JUN - JUL/SEP - OCT/DEC
NA 600K 600K 2000K
EU 600K 600K 1500K
JP 600K 600K 1000K
If we assume fairly successful sales worldwide through the end of 2014 the tally will be around 12 million shipped. I recall reading sony was aiming for 14 million but I think that will take longer for various reasons. As far as I'm concerned , 12 million is probably the best they'll do but that's still very good.
The Wii U will be lucky to have shipped 7 million units in the same time frame and I believe it's sell through rate will be only around 60-70% versus the 75-80% sellthrough on PS4.
For shits and giggles , I predict the Xbone will ship about 60% of the PS4 within this same time frame. Microsoft won't ship as many either , so their sell through will be a higher % but lower total sales. Basically, I see MS shipping 7-8 million xbox ones' similar numbers to the wii U but instead of only selling 4-5 million of them they will sell 6-7 million of them. This will mostly be a price thing. A true console war won't start until the 2 consoles are much closer to retail parity. Or at least within 20-30$ instead of 100$.
Erebus
Member
Completely different times. Not gonna happen.
Hidden One
Member
One of these things is not like the others.
Are you sure it was Gamestop? I'm pretty sure it was called Funcoland or EB Games back than.
Agreed. iPhone & iPad releases are bigger.
Freakzilla9028
Banned
Just placed my pre-order. First time ever pre-ordering a console or getting one at launch for me. So excited.
A bit more on topic: If the number is only slightly above a million it doesn't seem all that impressive. This means that since E3 it has had about 300k pre-orders per month so in another 3 months that would hypothetically equal a total of 2m+ pre-orders, you can probably expect the numbers to really pick up closer to release but it still doesn't seem all that impressive for 32 countries around the world.
Maybe I'm overestimating the proportion of people who pre-order. Maybe come launch day the console will easily exceed 3m.
A bit more on topic: If the number is only slightly above a million it doesn't seem all that impressive. This means that since E3 it has had about 300k pre-orders per month so in another 3 months that would hypothetically equal a total of 2m+ pre-orders, you can probably expect the numbers to really pick up closer to release but it still doesn't seem all that impressive for 32 countries around the world.
Maybe I'm overestimating the proportion of people who pre-order. Maybe come launch day the console will easily exceed 3m.