From
reading the article, I got the impression that their main point wasn't in comparing PS3 online to 360 online, but that online in general is, and will continue to be, a niche impact on hardware sales.
DFC said:
One of the key areas of interest in todayÂ’s market is how important will online games be for the new console systems coming on the market. ... Over the past six years, all facets of online games have come a long way. However, online games are nowhere close to being the tail that wags the dog that many were predicting.
The goal of the three big hardware manufacturers (Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony) is to sell as many hardware systems as possible to build the largest possible installed base. Online games are only effective to the extent that they help accomplish this goal.
...
In our view what Sony has announced so far for the PlayStation 3 and online connectivity looks a lot like the PlayStation 2 with an online store and some inexpensive community features added on. ... Right now they probably donÂ’t need the added expense and headache of a full-fledged online service, especially if there is no evidence it will get them to their goal of selling more hardware systems.
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In other words SonyÂ’s strength is retail and pushing hardware. Trying to compete head-to-head with Microsoft on a sophisticated network service does not necessarily make sense given current market conditions. It would be different if online connectivity was a key selling point for a game system, but right now it isnÂ’t. The lack of online connectivity may be a weakness, but the PlayStation 3 will have online connectivity. Furthermore, the bulk of consumers may have a hard time distinguishing between online services.
Basically, the article is saying that Sony is focused on selling hardware and
doesn't need a big online setup like Live to do that. Having online there, with even minimal improvements over the PS2, gives Sony the ability to say "We're online," and to the average consumer, according to the article, that's enough.
DFC said:
Imagine Average Joe consumer standing in a Best Buy or GameStop this holiday season and asking a sales clerk about the differences between the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation. Consumer: “wow, the Xbox 360 sure has a lot more games.” Clerk: “well the 360 has more games now, but the PS3 is newer and more powerful.” Consumer: “do these systems go online?” Clerk: “yes, they both go online, but the PS3 is free, you have to pay extra with the Xbox 360.” The issue of which online service is actually better is not even likely to come up in this scenario. In the consumer’s mind it is included for free with PS3 versus you must pay extra with the Xbox 360. That could even explain why a PlayStation 3 would cost more, Sony was nice enough to throw in the online service for free.
Of course, there is that core group of consumers that will pay attention. But how big is that core?
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Sure everyone knows about Halo 2. But even with all its success Halo 2 sold to only about a third of the Xbox installed base. And of that third only about another third (at most) were Xbox Live subscribers. So we are still talking about a subset of a subset. When you are dealing with the type of hardware numbers Sony is looking for with the PlayStation 3, the Xbox Live subscriber base is a rounding error.
Again, the article isn't so much focused on the features of the PS3's online, but rather its impact on hardware sales. It says that PS3
could have something as minimal as PS2 online+ and still sell the most systems, because online play has an almost negligible impact on sales. It's like 360's backwards compatibility. If they can put it as a bullet point on a features list, the average consumer won't know the difference before purchasing the product.
As an aside, not that Nintendo's online is going to be some awesome Live-killer, but the article basically ignored Nintendo's online plans altogether. There wasn't really a point of listing Nintendo as a competitor to Sony and Microsoft based on the rest of the content in the article.
To put into perspective why DFC thinks online play will have such a minor impact on hardware sales ...
DFC said:
However, even with our strong growth forecasts we estimate that less than 25% of the new console systems get connected to an online service by 2011.