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Risk of nuclear [weapons] accidents is rising, says report on near-misses

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Ether_Snake

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/29/nuclear-accident-near-misses-report

The report lists 13 instances since 1962 when nuclear weapons were nearly used. In several cases the large-scale launch of nuclear weapons was nearly triggered by technical malfunctions or breakdowns in communication causing false alarms, in both the US and Russia. Disaster was averted only by cool-headed individuals gambling that the alert was caused by a glitch and not an actual attack.

The Chatham House authors say the risks appear to be rising. Nuclear weapons are spreading – most recently to North Korea – and disarmament is stalling. Russia and the US still have an estimated 1,800 warheads on high alert, ready to launch between five and 15 minutes after receiving the launch order

The mental state of some of the leaders who had their fingers on the nuclear button has sometimes been a source of worry. Richard Nixon and Boris Yeltsin both raised concerns among their top advisers with their heavy drinking. In May 1981 the newly elected French president, François Mitterand, left the French nuclear launch codes at home in the pocket of his suit.

President Jimmy Carter did the same in the 1970s, and the suit as well as the codes were taken to the dry cleaners. The US launch codes went missing again when Ronald Reagan was shot on 30 March 1981. FBI agents had them, along with the injured president's bloodied trousers.

[...]

In September 1980 in Damascus, Arkansas, a maintenance engineer dropped a socket wrench into a silo holding a Titan II nuclear missile, igniting its fuel and triggering an explosion which sent the warhead flying. It landed near a road but did not detonate.

In an earlier accident in January 1961, a B-52 bomber broke up over North Carolina, dropping its two nuclear bombs over the town of Goldsboro. One of the bombs activated, engaging its trigger mechanism. A single low-voltage switch was all that stood between the eastern US and catastrophe.

Washington, June 1980 A faulty computer chip triggered a nuclear attack warning on the US, giving the impression that more than 2,000 Soviet missiles were on the way.

Cuba, October 1962 Four nuclear-armed Soviet submarines were deployed in the Sargasso Sea at the height of the Cuban missile crisis. US warships had warned Moscow that they would be practising dropping depth charges, but the message did not reach the submarines. With his communications cut off and believing himself under attack, one commander ordered a launch of nuclear warheads, declaring: "We're going to blast them now." He was persuaded to desist by his second-in-command.

Soviet Union, September 1983 Shortly after midnight on 25 September an alert sounded at a Soviet satellite early warning station. The data suggested five intercontinental ballistic missiles were heading towards the country. Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Yevgrafovich defied protocol by not reporting the incident to his superior, gambling that it was a false alarm. It turned out that sunlight glinting off US territory had confused the satellite.

Russia, January 1995 On 25 January Norwegian scientists launched a Black Brant rocket to study the aurora borealis over the Svalbard region. They warned Moscow but the message never reached the radar operators at the Russian early warning stations, who mistook the rocket for an incoming Trident submarine-launched missile. President Boris Yeltsin was discussing his decision with his top military commander when the rocket fell wide of Soviet territory.

What I think is likely to happen? A hacker will fire a nuclear weapon for fun.
 
A hacker?

You can't just SSH into a missile silo and tell it to launch. The codes are only useful to people who are actually physically there to launch them.
 
The missile launch machines still use floppy disks to get codes, and are not connected to the internet at all. It is pretty much impossible for these facilities to be hacked via the internet.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
The missile launch machines still use floppy disks to get codes, and are not connected to the internet at all. It is pretty much impossible for these facilities to be hacked via the internet.

Yeah....... maybe not the warning and detection systems uh?
 
Peace_Walker.jpg

These things shouldn't be handled by humans.
 

Javaman

Member
"In September 1980 in Damascus, Arkansas, a maintenance engineer dropped a socket wrench into a silo holding a Titan II nuclear missile, igniting its fuel and triggering an explosion which sent the warhead flying. It landed near a road but did not detonate."

Holy shit, he so got fired for that.

http://www.encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entryID=2543
Titan II Missile Explosion

The Titan II Launch Complex 374-7 in Southside (Van Buren County), just north of Damascus (Van Buren and Faulkner counties), became the site of the most highly publicized disaster in the history of the Titan II missile program when its missile exploded within the launch duct on September 19, 1980. An Air Force airman was killed, and the complex was destroyed. The Titan II Missile Launch Complex 374-7 Site was listed in the National Register of Historic Places on February 18, 2000.

Complex 374-7 had already been the site of one significant accident on January 27, 1978, when an oxidizer leak sent a cloud of toxic fumes 3,000 feet long, 300 feet wide, and 100 feet high drifting across U.S. Highway 65. Civilians were evacuated from the area, and four people suffered some ill effects from contact with the vapors. The leak was quickly repaired.

On September 18, 1980, at about 6:30 p.m., an airman conducting maintenance on the Titan II missile dropped a wrench socket, which fell about eighty feet before hitting and piercing the skin on the rocket’s first-stage fuel tank, causing it to leak. The commander of the 308th Strategic Missile Wing quickly formed a potential-hazard team, and by 9:00 p.m., the Air Force personnel manning the site were evacuated. About one hour later, Air Force security police began evacuating nearby civilian residents as efforts continued to determine the status of the missile and the fuel leak.

Senior Airman David Livingston and Sergeant Jeff K. Kennedy entered the launch complex early on the morning of September 19 to get readings of airborne fuel concentrations, which they found to be at their maximum. At about 3:00 a.m., the two men returned to the surface to await further instructions. Just as they sat down on the concrete edge of the access portal, the missile exploded, blowing the 740-ton launch duct closure door 200 feet into the air and some 600 feet northeast of the launch complex. The W-53 nuclear warhead landed about 100 feet from the launch complex’s entry gate; its safety features operated correctly and prevented any loss of radioactive material. Kennedy, his leg broken, was blown 150 feet from the silo. Livingston lay amid the rubble of the launch duct for some time before security personnel located and evacuated him. Livingston died of his injuries that day. Twenty-one people were injured by the explosion or during rescue efforts.

In early October 1980, cleanup operations gathered tons of debris from around 400 acres surrounding the launch complex and pumped some 100,000 gallons of contaminated water from the silo. The total cost to replace Launch Complex 374-7 was estimated at $225,322,670, while demolition and cleanup were expected to cost $20,000,000. Ultimately, the Air Force decided to seal the complex with soil, gravel, and small concrete debris.

A congressional inquiry into the accident found the Titan II missile program to be essentially reliable. It recommended, however, improved communications between the Air Force and local officials in case of accidents and a modification of the Air Force’s policy of neither confirming nor denying the presence and condition of nuclear weapons at an accident site.

Six Air Force servicemen, including Livingston and Kennedy, were awarded Airman’s Medals for Heroism for their actions on September 19, 1980, and the Titan II maintenance structure at Little Rock Air Force Base was later designated the Livingston Building in honor of Livingston.
1369586446-holeinground.jpg


Terrible that it ended in a death.
 

Azulsky

Member
There is still only USA and RUS that can really do ICBMS

Everyone else is limited to nuking their immediate neighbors.
 
"In September 1980 in Damascus, Arkansas, a maintenance engineer dropped a socket wrench into a silo holding a Titan II nuclear missile, igniting its fuel and triggering an explosion which sent the warhead flying. It landed near a road but did not detonate."

Holy shit, he so got fired for that.

Probably, it's a very expensive mistake to make. Although there was never any danger in that case of the warhead detonating from impact or the explosion.
 
A mod might want to change the subject line to make it clear this is about nuclear weapons accidents.


There are some good books about the various "Broken Arrow" accidents. The bombs dropped on spain. The bombs dropped in the North Carolina. Crazy stuff.
 
I saw that.

The people overseeing those weapons are so young. Also, that equipment is crazy old.

Well you can replace them but people are already freaking out about cuts to defense expenditures. It was probably difficult to secure massive funding to replace America's strategic defense network when you're engaged in conventional wars in the middle east, for example. I don't think any congressman wants to hear that they have to spend 200 billion dollars on maintenance because the computers are getting a bit old, etc.
 
a maintenance engineer dropped a socket wrench into a silo holding a Titan II nuclear missile, igniting its fuel and triggering an explosion which sent the warhead flying. It landed near a road but did not detonate.

WTF? Seriously a dropped wrench made a nuclear missile launch/fly out of the silo...time to redesign the systems and processes. Fuck me.
 

akira28

Member
A mod might want to change the subject line to make it clear this is about nuclear weapons accidents.


There are some good books about the various "Broken Arrow" accidents. The bombs dropped on spain. The bombs dropped in the North Carolina. Crazy stuff.

Yeah I only clicked because of the possibility of a hacker making a nuclear power plant go critical, which is pretty real. Someone might be able to spoof attack conditions, but there's so much redundancy, on our end anyway, that it wouldn't result in us firing missiles without confirmation. There is a famous story about the Russians though.
 
WTF? Seriously a dropped wrench made a nuclear missile launch/fly out of the silo...time to redesign the systems and processes. Fuck me.

No, it caused an explosion which propelled the wearhead. It wasn't armed and presumably was unusually vulnerable to this as it was in the middle of maintenance (as in, componenets are open and exposed).
 

Javaman

Member
There's a fairly comprehensive Wiki listing the military accidents...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_nuclear_accidents

November 10, 1950 – Rivière-du-Loup, Québec, Canada – Non-nuclear detonation of an atomic bomb

Returning one of several U.S. Mark 4 nuclear bombs secretly deployed in Canada, a USAF B-50 had engine trouble and jettisoned the weapon at 10,500 feet (3,200 m). The crew set the bomb to self-destruct at 2,500 ft (760 m) and dropped over the St. Lawrence River. The explosion shook area residents and scattered nearly 100 pounds (45 kg) of uranium (U-238) used in the weapon's tamper. The plutonium core ("pit") was not in the bomb at the time.[7]

March 11, 1958 – Mars Bluff, South Carolina, USA – Non-nuclear detonation of a nuclear bomb

A USAF B-47 bomber flying from Hunter Air Force Base in Savannah, Georgia accidentally released an atomic bomb.[26] A home was destroyed and several people injured but the bomb's plutonium core did not explode.

January 24, 1961 – Goldsboro B-52 crash – Physical destruction of a nuclear bomb, loss of nuclear materials
A USAF B-52 bomber caught fire and exploded in midair due to a major leak in a wing fuel cell 12 miles (19 km) north of Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina. Five crewmen parachuted to safety, but three died—two in the aircraft and one on landing. The incident released the bomber's two Mark 39 hydrogen bombs. Three of the four arming devices on one of the bombs activated, causing it to carry out many of the steps needed to arm itself, such as the charging of the firing capacitors and, critically, the deployment of a 100-foot (30 m) diameter retardation parachute. The parachute allowed the bomb to hit the ground with little damage. The fourth arming device — the pilot's safe/arm switch — was not activated preventing detonation. The second bomb plunged into a muddy field at around 700 mph (300 m/s) and disintegrated. Its tail was discovered about 20 feet (6 m) down and much of the bomb recovered, including the tritium bottle and the plutonium. However, excavation was abandoned due to uncontrollable ground water flooding. Most of the thermonuclear stage, containing uranium, was left in situ. It is estimated to lie around 55 feet (17 m) below ground. The Air Force purchased the land and fenced it off to prevent its disturbance, and it is tested regularly for contamination, although none has so far been found.

January 17, 1966 – Palomares incident – Accidental destruction, loss and recovery of nuclear bombs

A USAF B-52 carrying four hydrogen bombs collided with a USAF KC-135 jet tanker during over-ocean in-flight refueling. Four of the B-52's seven crew members parachuted to safety while the remaining three were killed along with all four of the KC-135's crew. The conventional explosives in two of the bombs detonated upon impact with the ground, dispersing plutonium over nearby farms. A third bomb landed intact near Palomares while the fourth fell 12 miles (19 km) off the coast into the Mediterranean sea. The US Navy conducted a three-month search involving 12,000 men and successfully recovered the fourth bomb. The U.S. Navy employed the use of the deep-diving research submarine DSV Alvin to aid in the recovery efforts. During the ensuing cleanup, 1,500 tonnes (1,700 short tons) of radioactive soil and tomato plants were shipped to a nuclear dump in Aiken, South Carolina. The U.S. settled claims by 522 Palomares residents for $600,000. The town also received a $200,000 desalinization plant. The motion picture Men of Honor (2000), starring Cuba Gooding, Jr., as USN Diver Carl Brashear, and Robert De Niro as USN Diver Billy Sunday, contained an account of the fourth bomb's recovery.

There's a bunch more accidents listed. It doesn't go into the close calls due to human and hardware faults.
 
No, it caused an explosion which propelled the wearhead. It wasn't armed and presumably was unusually vulnerable to this as it was in the middle of maintenance (as in, componenets are open and exposed).

Still piss poor by design, imagine a real threat dropping more than just a wrench down there. All they'd have to do is recover a propelled missile.

Would also like to think missiles that can wipe out entire countries and cultures are under frequent maintenance. Bad form all around.
 
Still piss poor by design, imagine a real threat dropping more than just a wrench down there. All they'd have to do is recover a propelled missile.

Missile silos aren't unguarded. Terrorists stealing a nuclear warhead by breaking into a silo, igniting the fuel on a missile that is in the middle of maintenance and then getting a team to recover a giant warhead wreck whose final resting place will ultimately be unknown seems like a really unlikely scenario. Even then, they can't ignite the physics package without the keys and codes, so they would have to dismantle the warhead entirely and try to build their own fission package using the materials in it. The only plausible way they're getting a weapon out of it is just by blowing up the fissionable materials as a dirty bomb. Which is bad certainly but this is not exactly low hanging fruit.
 
Missile silos aren't unguarded. Terrorists stealing a nuclear warhead by breaking into a silo, igniting the fuel on a missile that is in the middle of maintenance and then getting a team to recover a giant warhead wreck whose final resting place will ultimately be unknown seems like a really unlikely scenario. Even then, they can't ignite the physics package without the keys and codes, so they would have to dismantle the warhead entirely and try to build their own fission package using the materials in it. The only plausible way they're getting a weapon out of it is just by blowing up the fissionable materials as a dirty bomb. Which is bad certainly but this is not exactly low hanging fruit.

haven't you played Metal Gear Solid?
 

JordanN

Banned
Using nuclear weapons shouldn't be up to countries. It should require the approval of the world.

I mean, this is just sad.

With his communications cut off and believing himself under attack, one commander ordered a launch of nuclear warheads, declaring: "We're going to blast them now." He was persuaded to desist by his second-in-command.
On 25 January Norwegian scientists launched a Black Brant rocket to study the aurora borealis over the Svalbard region. They warned Moscow but the message never reached the radar operators at the Russian early warning stations, who mistook the rocket for an incoming Trident submarine-launched missile. President Boris Yeltsin was discussing his decision with his top military commander when the rocket fell wide of Soviet territory.
 
Missile silos aren't unguarded. Terrorists stealing a nuclear warhead by breaking into a silo, igniting the fuel on a missile that is in the middle of maintenance and then getting a team to recover a giant warhead wreck whose final resting place will ultimately be unknown seems like a really unlikely scenario. Even then, they can't ignite the physics package without the keys and codes, so they would have to dismantle the warhead entirely and try to build their own fission package using the materials in it. The only plausible way they're getting a weapon out of it is just by blowing up the fissionable materials as a dirty bomb. Which is bad certainly but this is not exactly low hanging fruit.

It's not so much the guarded or infiltration parts I was speaking of and more the fact an explosion can be triggered from a single wrench which equates to a nuclear warhead lying by the side of a road unguarded until the silos staff track it and arrive at the scene.

Aren't there suppression or fail safe or physical barrier systems to prevent such things? How far and how long was the missile lying there unattended? These things don't raise your eyebrows?

Reading some of the other incidents where essentially 1 person is making a decision to launch or not and the whole "systems and processes" reveal themselves somewhat.

And this article pops up from the US 60 minutes bit...floppy disks control US nuclear silos, 8 inches of destruction it seems.

BmQ57jJIgAAUAT8.jpg
 
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