Father_Brain said:A $50 million+ opening weekend, while not guaranteed, really is not that hard to achieve if the film in question has a massive and effective marketing campaign (check) and opens on 3000+ screens (check).
Speed Racer says hello.
Father_Brain said:The second and third weekends are far better indicators of how audiences are actually receiving a film, rather than just responding to hype. And on that, I doubt it'll fare that well.
The general rule of thumb for most films is that the final gross is three times a film's opening weekend number. I imagine that Watchmen will be good for $150m once everything is said and done.
It's the International markets that I think are going to really do Watchmen the most favours. Though superhero films don't really do that well abroad Int. audiences are generally more 'open' to more mature films.