Support NeoGAF

[Men_in_Boxes]

I wasn't being pedantic. PUBG peaked at 3.2 million.

If this genre is as big as you claim and the next new thing, I'd expect it to do as well as the last big thing.

Nobody expects the Extraction genre to do as well as Battle Royale did from 2017 - 2020. Plety of games have come out after that did well despite not not doing near PUBGs numbers.

These games are exponentially more complex so the rate of growth will be slower. Long term though, Extraction is a bull market.

 

[diffusionx]

I'd expect Arc Raiders to do 200k-250k on Steam, then you have consoles on top. I'd consider that a success.

Good word of mouth and a sold road map will be the real test in keeping or growing that amount. I don't think comparing it to an Industry unicorn is fair, you never know though the last tech test seemed very popular. Battlefield 6 a few weeks prior to launch won't do it any favours though.

That would be basically the level of The Finals which nobody cares about anymore. And it would be good evidence that this extraction shooter thing really isn't a thing.

Needless to say I think that Marathon needs to do a lot better than that for Bungie to have considered it worthwhile to invest the enormous amount of time and resources into it that it has.

 

[clarky]

That would be basically the level of The Finals which nobody cares about anymore. And it would be good evidence that this extraction shooter thing really isn't a thing.

Needless to say I think that Marathon needs to do a lot better than that for Bungie to have considered it worthwhile to invest the enormous amount of time and resources into it that it has.

Finals had shit retention though where as in the example you gave with PUBG didn't hit CCU highs for a few years. Hence why I brought up retention.

Marathon won't get anywhere near either after the terrible word of mouth of course.

We all know Men_in_Boxes has unrealistic expectations for these kind of games.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

That would be basically the level of The Finals which nobody cares about anymore. And it would be good evidence that this extraction shooter thing really isn't a thing.

Needless to say I think that Marathon needs to do a lot better than that for Bungie to have considered it worthwhile to invest the enormous amount of time and resources into it that it has.

Hunt Showdown grew Crytek into a 350 person studio based off it's 12k - 15k CCU long term monthly performance. It's not on the XBL Most Played charts.

The Marathon team is "just under 300" according to Joe Ziegler.

 

[ricardo_sousa11]

This will flop like concord

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

We all know Men_in_Boxes has unrealistic expectations for these kid of games.

Every time I go to the supermarket, I ask the cashier why the Extraction genre isn't ready to blow up. They can never do it. Even the security guards that walk me out can't do it. If NeoGAF can't explain it and Bernice can't explain it, then that should tell you something.

The fundementals of this genre are too stroooonnnng!!

 

[Pallas]

While I agree, I don't think you are answering my question. What do they have to learn? You said that this game has nothing to do with Concord, and presented the scenario of Helldivers 2 launching after Concord affecting gamer confidence in that game, but again.......what is the lesson here? Don't release any more live service games post Concord.......period? Concord had a mid demo, Sony launched anyway. Marathon had a mid playtest, Sony has delayed the game and are listening to user feedback to improve the game.

What next?

Lesson is, don't be surprised or shocked at consumers hesitant or flat out not purchasing Marathon after Concord.

Now it's all moot if Marathon is another HellDivers 2 in terms of quality but it's still up to Sony to market it and get the game into as many reviewers hands as possible; they need word of mouth to spread and get out that "Hey this isn't Concord 2.0"

Marathon will unfairly be treated until it can prove it's a game with buying into. Sucks, but that's what happens when you put out something like Concord.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

Lesson is, don't be surprised or shocked at consumers hesitant or flat out not purchasing Marathon after Concord.

Now it's all moot if Marathon is another HellDivers 2 in terms of quality but it's still up to Sony to market it and get the game into as many reviewers hands as possible; they need word of mouth to spread and get out that "Hey this isn't Concord 2.0"

Marathon will unfairly be treated until it can prove it's a game with buying into. Sucks, but that's what happens when you put out something like Concord.

That is not in context to the original post I responded to........which was:

So they learned nothing from Concord? Good luck.

How have they "learned" not to be surprised or shocked?