You make fine points. None of them refute my assertions and none of them are grounded in any data.
Capcom realizes that the IP isn't strong enough to reinvent/milk a ton, unlike their other IPs. Simple as that. It's also a fundamentally harder series to milk due to the character and narrative driven nature of the very in depth finely tuned gameplay necessitating long and involved development cycle (including tons of new art assets and the like) that then can't be easily 'iterated' on by simply adding new fighters like a fighting game can. DMC4 got an unnaturally high boost from being multiplatform and the first HD title in the series (after a long wait), but had a lot of problems and was received so-so by the fanbase. You can bring up review scores but those rarely tell the whole story, just look at how Killzone 2 reviewed and then look at the huge backlash over the controls and MP experience effectively kneecapped the series, Killzone 3 certainly didn't help either.
DMC was declining, not to say that DmC did better than another DMC5 would have but you have a very skewed perspective on the IP. The reason that the per iteration sales are so high is exactly because, outside of DMC3: Special Edition, they have generally stuck with only mainline entries in the series, and the entries per lifespan of the IP have been spread out (ish).
And frankly given the talent exodus that has happened over the years I seriously doubt they'd be capable of reinvigorating the franchise on their own merit. Saying that people are morons only highlights your own potentially narrow understanding of why exactly the franchise is where it is today and why it also happens to have those sales per installment. Higher isn't always better. Especially when you can't sell low cost expansion packs that sell decently and maximize profits.
Would Capcom have abandoned DMC without DmC being in the works? Probably for the time being as their studios had been betting big on large scale development of a few IPS (Dragons Dogma, RE6). The whole reason that they outsourced DMC was exactly because they did not have the will/rational to commit the necessary resources to it themselves. In fact if they aren't going to get Ninja Theory to make DmC2, I bet there's a higher chance that they try to go to platinum for DMC5, or failing that let it sit dormant, than develop anything themselves. Not that inflating development costs and scope so much on fewer titles is necessarily a good thing or has panned out for them.
You're right to an extent. It's not a cut and dry formula. I realize that the value of a franchise is far more complicated than the numbers above, but at least I've provided numbers. You might take offense to my aggressive tone, but I'm frankly sick of seeing the same baseless arguments in these threads that don't have an ounce of evidence as back-up. So, if I seem slightly annoyed, it's because I am. Most of us have been down this road a lot. Pretty much since the announcement of DmC. You're not telling me anything I don't already know.
I used review scores because that's what the Ninja Theory fanbase tends to use when justifying DmC and lambasting the DMC fanbase for their love of the classic series. I simply returned the favor.
Most of what you're saying is based on assumptions of Capcom's internal greenlighting process. They might be true. They might not be. Capcom has a reputation (for the latter half of this gen) of making randomly horrible anti-consumer decisions, but their one general consistency is that they make decisions with money in mind at the risk of damage to their credibility. Cash. Numbers. I'm not necessarily saying that DMC is a golden-egg laying goose for Capcom, but the numbers indicate a successful franchise overall in their portfolio. I didn't embellish or project. I simply stated facts. These are numbers that Capcom shows their investors as barometers of success.
I respectfully disagree with your argument that the DMC4's sales were solely due to 1) the multiplatform release and 2) it being the first HD DMC title. Being released that early in the console cycle is a double-edged sword. While you have the advantage of being in a market with limited competition, you're also working with the smallest consumer base for sales. As far as it being a multiplatform release, if you halve DMC4's sales you'd have the total shipped units for DmC, which also enjoyed a multiplatform release (as well as a day-one PC release) on a well-established set of consoles in a month devoid of any heavy-hitting competition. You could try to attribute this to console fatigue or lapsing interest in the genre, but that's also conjecture.
As for your "iteration" argument, I think DMC3:SE sales make it clear that you can add additional content to these games (as long as the base game is good) and people will buy them, either as DLC or as a compiled version. In fact, this is one of the rare instances where they adopted this strategy for something other than a fighting game. It's something that Capcom has failed to actively and wholly engage this generation for DMC, which is odd considering how ripe DMC4 was for expansions/DLC. I don't think DMC is as much an ill fit for the expansion and add-on formula as you're making it out to be, and we have at least one historical instance where it worked. There's not a more current precedent simply because they didn't try.
As for a lack of talent, the DMC3 team is still there, as far as I know. Itsuno is still there. They have a group capable of making a solid entry. They simply didn't because of Inafune's mass Westernization outsourcing initiative... which backfired more than it succeeded. Dark Void. Bionic Commando. Lost Planet 3. Remember Me. Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City. Spyborgs.
We already know that both Itsuno and Eshiro are open to making a DMC5. It's the suits upstairs that are currently holding the franchise hostage.
Eshiro:
“Well, since I am part of Capcom, I’d like to continue releasing more games for Onimusha and Devil May Cry,” he tells Famitsu. “Again, I’d also like to revive side-scroller games, such as Final Fight and Dungeons & Dragons! They may be simple, but they have plenty of depth, and I definitely believe that remaking older action games with today’s technology would make things interesting.”
Itsuno:
In addition to that, I want to also make a miniature garden simulation, as well as make more games for (established) series such as “Rival Schools 3” and “Devil May Cry 5.” Later on, I would even like to make a game that captures authentic fighting and, such as Street Fighter II did, to develop a new genre of fighting games.
At least it's something they want to do.
You can't just say 'no it wasn't', I played 3 and 4, I was there! I'm attempting to extrapolate the meaning behind numbers based on variables and you're content to play the Count on Sesame Street? You can't just ignore that other series showed similar boosts from the same combination of events. Do you honestly want to argue that being Mutliplatform for the first time and being the first HD entry didn't inflate sales? These aren't excuses, they're called reasons. The franchise got a boost from the environment surrounding 4, but the general consensus on the state of the IP wasn't all that rosy, that's entirely why Capcom started looking for ways to change it up.
Also it's reductive to judge the strength of an IP off of sales alone since usually they sell somewhat based on the strength of the predecessor and many other factors (like availability), look at the transition from MGS1 -> 2 -> 3 -> 4 (with 4 being hurt by the platform but also helped by being the HD entry). 3 sold a heck of a lot less than 2 despite being judged as perhaps the best in the entire series by a lot of fans.
People have some serious rose tinted glasses on for DMC4 simply because DmC exists.
You're making leaps of logic, and using your own value judgments for DMC4. You're putting yourself in Capcom's shoes and making assumptions without any evidence.
The "consensus"? Who is this consensus? You? Because according to Metacritic, DMC4 received only one aggregate point lower than DmC. I'm not going to take whatever opinions you spout as gospel. And I'd be a horse's ass if I took whatever PR speak Capcom used in justifying its corporate positions as truth. DMC4 was absolutely a weaker overall title than 3. I don't think most people came out of that saying, "we need a reboot". This revisionist history is bullshit.
Is my numerical analysis reductionist? Sure. Because neither you or I have all the facts involved, but at least my extrapolations are rooted in something substantive. Any argument you make outside of using collective data is simply your opinion and nothing more.
That's definitely my feelings towards all this as well. You're definitely kidding yourself if you think DMC wasn't on the chopping block at some point. Capcom Franchises have been killed for less. It really all does come down to if we are going to get anything after DmC. My whole thing is I understand the hate for the game and for the DMC fans it's all understandable. But the comment's talking of people being glad that people could potentially be losing jobs was what upset me. Everyone has their right to dismiss a game they dislike nor wanted, but that sort of talk was a bit to much. Especially in an industry where more and more people are becoming unemployed.
Avatar quote.
We know that every franchise gets a good hard look, but DMC was really no more in danger of getting axed than Sengoku Basara, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, or Ace Attorney.
The brand has strength.