PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Yeah, my first thought would be DUH too, but it really isn't that simple.
Yes, in Japan the Wii is selling faster than the PS2 at its point in the lifecycle (thanks JJSLONE). Yes, in the US the Wii has been outselling the PS3 and 360 both for every month except for two in the last year. Various estimates for worldwide hardware LTD for consoles show the Wii is sitting around 20 million, while the 360 and PS3 are at 16 million and 10 million respectively.
(chart by Donny2112)
So the Wii should be getting console exclusives left and right, right? WRONG! Well, more specifically, half wrong. The Wii *should* be getting Japanese exclusives (ones important to the hardcore Japanese public anyway) while they should not be getting Western exclusives (ones important to to the hardcore Western public anyway).
Not even acknowledging the admitted hatred that western devs have for the little GC-that-could, not even referencing the obvious disconnect that FPSs and other HD-reliant genres would create, we can show that the Wii should be getting Japanese exclusives but WILL NOT be getting Western ones. Current trends show this likely to be true for the entire generation. Still, I acknowledge that this is a readily apparent suggestion to many and it comes as obvious to most. (Of COURSE the FPS, Sports, and wRPGS will be going to the 360 and the PS3!) I would however like to show those that would think that it may change in the near future that it just isn't happening. Enjoy the show:
Japan
Here you can see just how dominant the Wii has been in Japan. It dominates sales from day one and never relinquishes hold. I think the PS3 will definitely be making slight gains in the next 12 months but it will never overcome the deficit that earned in its first year. The 360 shows up here as statistical noise. These charts show that some Japanese exclusives might be expected in the near future:
Why you can expect Japanese exclusives in the near future:
US
What you can see is a HUGE difference that the 360 makes in US sales. That year head start really, really helped. The 360 is matching the Wii almost stride for stride and is still currently ahead.
Why the Wii will not be getting Western exclusives for the entire generation:
I believe that Western devs in general will be viewing the 360 and the PS3 as the same console and will be treating their audience as one, which is what this last chart shows.
Major assumptions
Assumptions do not necessarily make any of the above true or any of the below real.
[ ] That Japanese Devs value the Japanese public's buying habits over the Western public's buying habits. (and that they value money).
[ ] That *exclusive* in this context means hardcore big-name, big-budget games that are targetted toward a hardcore audience. In that assumption, we are automatically excluding every title that includes wii-exclusive content but is not itself exclusive, or other mass-market titles that don't apply specifically to the interest of this forum (Brain Age, EA Cheerleading, Ubisoft mini-game collections, etc)
[ ] That previously announced Japanese titles for specific consoles will not be switching formats if they haven't already.
[ ] That Western devs really do believe that the PS3 and 360 are the same exact audience and that developing games for them as one (or porting from one to the other) does not incur a significant enough cost to impact their development.
[ ] That NPD exact numbers are now estimates that have been rounded off where they were once provided. Do not get hung up on numbers past the one-hundred thousands.
[ ] That this analysis and definitions therein is tailored towards GAF for the purposes of discussion.
Sources:
Donny112, JoshuaJSlone, various members of Sales-Age.
WW Chart: US - NPD, Canada - NPD, ,Japan - Media Create , Europe + Other - ELSPA, GfK, and other trackers / press releases and estimation where needed.
Yes, in Japan the Wii is selling faster than the PS2 at its point in the lifecycle (thanks JJSLONE). Yes, in the US the Wii has been outselling the PS3 and 360 both for every month except for two in the last year. Various estimates for worldwide hardware LTD for consoles show the Wii is sitting around 20 million, while the 360 and PS3 are at 16 million and 10 million respectively.
(chart by Donny2112)
So the Wii should be getting console exclusives left and right, right? WRONG! Well, more specifically, half wrong. The Wii *should* be getting Japanese exclusives (ones important to the hardcore Japanese public anyway) while they should not be getting Western exclusives (ones important to to the hardcore Western public anyway).
Not even acknowledging the admitted hatred that western devs have for the little GC-that-could, not even referencing the obvious disconnect that FPSs and other HD-reliant genres would create, we can show that the Wii should be getting Japanese exclusives but WILL NOT be getting Western ones. Current trends show this likely to be true for the entire generation. Still, I acknowledge that this is a readily apparent suggestion to many and it comes as obvious to most. (Of COURSE the FPS, Sports, and wRPGS will be going to the 360 and the PS3!) I would however like to show those that would think that it may change in the near future that it just isn't happening. Enjoy the show:
Japan
Here you can see just how dominant the Wii has been in Japan. It dominates sales from day one and never relinquishes hold. I think the PS3 will definitely be making slight gains in the next 12 months but it will never overcome the deficit that earned in its first year. The 360 shows up here as statistical noise. These charts show that some Japanese exclusives might be expected in the near future:
Why you can expect Japanese exclusives in the near future:
US
What you can see is a HUGE difference that the 360 makes in US sales. That year head start really, really helped. The 360 is matching the Wii almost stride for stride and is still currently ahead.
Why the Wii will not be getting Western exclusives for the entire generation:
I believe that Western devs in general will be viewing the 360 and the PS3 as the same console and will be treating their audience as one, which is what this last chart shows.
Major assumptions
Assumptions do not necessarily make any of the above true or any of the below real.
[ ] That Japanese Devs value the Japanese public's buying habits over the Western public's buying habits. (and that they value money).
[ ] That *exclusive* in this context means hardcore big-name, big-budget games that are targetted toward a hardcore audience. In that assumption, we are automatically excluding every title that includes wii-exclusive content but is not itself exclusive, or other mass-market titles that don't apply specifically to the interest of this forum (Brain Age, EA Cheerleading, Ubisoft mini-game collections, etc)
[ ] That previously announced Japanese titles for specific consoles will not be switching formats if they haven't already.
[ ] That Western devs really do believe that the PS3 and 360 are the same exact audience and that developing games for them as one (or porting from one to the other) does not incur a significant enough cost to impact their development.
[ ] That NPD exact numbers are now estimates that have been rounded off where they were once provided. Do not get hung up on numbers past the one-hundred thousands.
[ ] That this analysis and definitions therein is tailored towards GAF for the purposes of discussion.
Sources:
Donny112, JoshuaJSlone, various members of Sales-Age.
WW Chart: US - NPD, Canada - NPD, ,Japan - Media Create , Europe + Other - ELSPA, GfK, and other trackers / press releases and estimation where needed.