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[Ty4on]

One thing I've wanted to ask Abdiel about for some time now were WiiU sales in June.

Wii U numbers saw boosts from the MK8 bundles, but I don't know how high high the surge will be, because inventory wasn't exactly a constant through the month. We didn't get rapid replenishment in most stores, though we typically sold through the bundles we got (MK8 bundles, that is, the older ones didn't see much jump)

WiiU Apr-May-Jun went from 49->61->140 and June was 5 weeks. Better supply of the MK8 bundle in other stores could explain the big bump in June, but we know that most sales were of the normal WiiU. The normal WiiU sold ~100k in June while April sales (May had a small MK8 boost) adjusted weekly would be just 61k.

My question is if I just misunderstood your post and thought the boost would be lower, if WiiU sales were simply very inconsistent or if BestBuy poorly reflected WiiU sales that month.

 

[LordofPwn]

[360] 45k
[3DS] 156k
[PS3] 33k
[PS4] 493k
[WIU] 72k
[XB1] 257k

 

[Mr.Sumal]

[360] 55k
[3DS] 180k
[PS3] 28k
[PS4] 390k
[WIU] 66k
[XB1] 270k

 

[giadartis]

First npd prediction ever.

[360] 80k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 360k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 350k

Picked some similar numbers as other gaffers for Nintendo. In my opinion I think that the PS4 numbers and XBO hardware sales are close. Some people I know are jumping on this Gen recently because of SO

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

First npd prediction ever.

[360] 80k
[3DS] 200k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 360k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 350k

Picked some similar numbers as other gaffers for Nintendo. In my opinion I think that the PS4 numbers and XBO hardware sales are close. Some people I know are jumping on this Gen recently because of SO

That is October. These predictions are for September and only the first week of October^^

 

[ilikecandy]

I think I was too late, so I'm just doing this for me I guess.

[PS4] 390k
[XB1] 260k
[3DS] 131k
[WIU] 104k
[360] 80k
[PS3] 51k

 

[AgentP]

Some people I know are jumping on this Gen recently because of SO

That explains why the bundle has shot to #132 on Amazon with a bullet...

 

[SwiftDeath]

Hmm so I'll probably be missing out on the first couple hours of the NPD thread as I have obligations that do not allow internet-access. Pity as we'll be getting PR from companies I'm sure with how big September probably was.

I eagerly await trying to catch up on the thousand or so posts I miss out on.

 

[theprodigy]

Hmm so I'll probably be missing out on the first couple hours of the NPD thread as I have obligations that do not allow internet-access. Pity as we'll be getting PR from companies I'm sure with how big September probably was.

I eagerly await trying to catch up on the thousand or so posts I miss out on.

wait crap now my Hyrule Warriors joke from earlier might not work!

 

[SwiftDeath]

Yeah that's probably still going to hold true though 0_0

 

[RexNovis]

I can't believe the thread about Pachter's predictions has drawn so much interest. Why is it that that thread is huge while the NPD prediction thread (the thread where actual sales predictions and and information are discussed) is so small? After venturing into the other thread for a while I just want to thank all of you in this thread for your logical and well thought analysis. It's always a pleasure conversing and debating the reasoning behind sales number/predictions with you all. Even though I'm sometimes getting schooled it's always great learning more and hearing more about what is going on in the industry in my home country while I'm working abroad. To sum up, these threads are the most fascinating part of GAF imho. So cheers to you all!

I just hope we can continue our reasonable discourse in the NPD results thread amidst the probable plethora of Pachter posts.

Oh and good luck to you all with your predictions! May the best man/woman win!

 

[Conduit]

Today is the day, right?

 

[Aquamarine]

Today is the day, right?

Tomorrow

 

[Soccer4life]

I missed the deadline but I'll just post it for me :

[360] 42k
[3DS] 135k
[PS3] 33k
[PS4] 485k
[WIU] 84k
[XB1] 249k

 

[Conduit]

Tomorrow

Yes, i mean tomorrow. How many hours left...15?

 

[Ty4on]

Yes, i mean tomorrow. How many hours left...15?

Link in OP.

 

[SDCowboy]

I can't believe the thread about Pachter's predictions has drawn so much interest. Why is it that that thread is huge while the NPD prediction thread (the thread where actual sales predictions and and information are discussed) is so small? After venturing into the other thread for a while I just want to thank all of you in this thread for your logical and well thought analysis. It's always a pleasure conversing and debating the reasoning behind sales number/predictions with you all. Even though I'm sometimes getting schooled it's always great learning more and hearing more about what is going on in the industry in my home country while I'm working abroad. To sum up, these threads are the most fascinating part of GAF imho. So cheers to you all!

I just hope we can continue our reasonable discourse in the NPD results thread amidst the probable plethora of Pachter posts.

Oh and good luck to you all with your predictions! May the best man/woman win!

What thread?

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

What thread?

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=911723

But to be honest, it starts out bad and only devolves into crazy November theories and arguments from there... but I would not like to thread wine, so I will just stay here^^

 

[SDCowboy]

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=911723

But to be honest, it starts out bad and only devolves into crazy November theories and arguments from there... but I would not like to thread wine, so I will just stay here^^

lol Wow. Don't know how he could think the Xbone outsold the PS4 for September.

 

[On Demand]

I can't believe the thread about Pachter's predictions has drawn so much interest. Why is it that that thread is huge while the NPD prediction thread (the thread where actual sales predictions and and information are discussed) is so small? After venturing into the other thread for a while I just want to thank all of you in this thread for your logical and well thought analysis. It's always a pleasure conversing and debating the reasoning behind sales number/predictions with you all. Even though I'm sometimes getting schooled it's always great learning more and hearing more about what is going on in the industry in my home country while I'm working abroad. To sum up, these threads are the most fascinating part of GAF imho. So cheers to you all!

I just hope we can continue our reasonable discourse in the NPD results thread amidst the probable plethora of Pachter posts.

Oh and good luck to you all with your predictions! May the best man/woman win!

Because this thread is more low key with the usual members, and few first timers, making predictions and discussing sales in a thoughtful manner. It doesn't really draw the majority of gaf. So when you have Pachter's crazy prediction about an illogical outcome for XB1 posted outside of this thread, it's going to get attention from all of gaf from both sides of the console war.

 

[Aquamarine]

Because this thread is more low key with the usual members, and few first timers, making predictions and discussing sales in a thoughtful manner. It doesn't really draw the majority of gaf. So when you have Pachter's crazy prediction about an illogical outcome for XB1 posted outside of this thread, it's going to get attention from all of gaf from both sides of the console war.

Pachter's predictions were virtually ignored when they were posted here...they were discussed by like maybe 20 people, but it was nothing like that massive 2,400-post behemoth of a thread.

Just goes to show how few people actually care enough about the USA retail market to frequent the actual thread that discusses it.

It's all about kneejerk reactions and sensationalism.

 

[Welfare]

Pachter's predictions were virtually ignored when they were posted here...they were discussed by like maybe 20 people, but it was nothing like that massive 2,400 post behemoth of a thread.

Just goes to show how few people actually care enough about the USA retail market to frequent the actual thread that discusses it.

It's all about kneejerk reactions and sensationalism.

Well, where are people going to go first, "September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions", or "Xbox > PS4"? People have to fight the fight somewhere.

 

[Ty4on]

It's all about kneejerk reactions and sensationalism.

Depressing how much popular that is, but at the very least we enjoy some civil discussion here.

Big thanks for the info about Pachter BTW.

 

[theprodigy]

It's all about kneejerk reactions and sensationalism.

yup, it's always like this, just check out the first few hours of NPD threads themselves

 

[Mpl90]

Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U, as of October 15th, 2014, 22:15 GMT

Best sellers chart

Holy Bayonetta 2 ($59.96) - 5th*

PS4 ($399) - 7th

The Evil Within
PS4 ($59.96) - 8th
One ($59.99) - 59th

Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($59.99) - 11th

Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
PS4 ($59.99) - 15th | PS4 Digital Code ($59.99) - 315th
One ($59.99) - 58th

PS4 +Destiny ($449) - 18th

FIFA15
PS4 ($53.78) - 20th
One ($55.56) - 144th (PS3 - 37th - and 360 - 38th - higher)

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Day Zero Edition
One ($59.99) - 21st
PS4 ($59.99) - 28th

Xbox One ($399) - 26th

Super Smash Bros. for Wii U ($59.99) - 27th

The Last of Us: Remastered ($42.02) - 30th

NBA 2K15
PS4 ($59) - 31st
One ($59.83) - 88th

GTAV
PS4 ($59.99) - 39th
One ($59.99) - 102nd

Mario Kart 8 ($48.15) - 42nd

PlayStation TV ($99.99) - 49th

Destiny
PS4 ($50.48) - 51st (360 - 24th, at $49.99 - is higher)
One ($48.90) - 60th

Hyrule Warriors ($59.99) - 53rd

Assassin's Creed: Unity
PS4 ($59.96) - 62nd
One ($59.96) - 103rd

Madden NFL 15 (Standard Edition)
One ($39.99) - 76th
PS4 ($44.99) - 79th

Wii U Deluxe Set with NSMBU + NSLU ($300; sold by third party) - 86th

Battlefield 4
One ($19.99) - 84th
PS4 ($41.90) - 321st

Dragon Age: Inquisition
PS4 | Deluxe ($69.96) - 92nd | Standard ($59.96) - 609th
One | Deluxe ($69.96) - 152nd | Standard ($59.99) - 981st

Far Cry 4
PS4 ($59.99) - 99th
One ($59.99) - 263rd

Notable October releases outside top 100

One + Sunset Overdrive ($399) - 110th

Fantasy Life ($39.99) - 113rd

Forza Horizon 2: WOM Edition ($50; only one left in stock & sold by third party) - 123rd

Alien: Isolation
PS4 ($58.83) - 143rd
One ($58.27) - 362nd

Sunset Overdrive ($59.96) - 147th

PlayStation TV + DS3 ($139.99) - 169th

DriveClub ($59.59) - 243rd

*Bayonetta 2 is experiencing what I'd call the "Review boost": good reviews help preorders, with games going higher than where they were before reviews. It happened with some recent releases, and it's happening with Bayonetta 2 as well. After a few days of preorders being boosted by reviews, games go down again around the pre-review boost level. So, it has to be seen in the next days if Bayonetta 2 is going to last that high. It's also true that it's receiving a larger boost compared to other recent titles, though. Still, let's see how it goes as the release approaches.

Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth

 

[SwiftDeath]

Looking at the monthly chart, Bayonetta is #31. I wonder if it's US sales will be better than expected

 

[jcm]

Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth

The hourly chart isn't even a straight units-based ranking. It's an algorithm that biases using both previous and predicted sales.

 

[Welfare]

Looking at the monthly chart, Bayonetta is #31. I wonder if it's US sales will be better than expected

What were Bayo 1 numbers to see what we should expect?

 

[theprodigy]

The hourly chart isn't even a straight units-based ranking. It's an algorithm that biases using both previous and predicted sales.

wait what?

also as a sidenote that may or may not be relevant, Bayonetta 2 was #21 on Amazon Japan for the month of September

What were Bayo 1 numbers to see what we should expect?

iirc it was ~100k for the 360 version and ~60k for the PS3 version

although this is 26 days/4 weeks for Bayo 1 vs 9 days/2 weeks for Bayo 2, I think/hope we all know by now that the 3rd/4th weeks won't be adding much

 

[Evenflow]

wait what?

also as a sidenote that may or may not be relevant, Bayonetta 2 was #21 on Amazon Japan for the month of September



iirc it was ~100k for the 360 version and ~60k for the PS3 version

although this is 26 days/4 weeks for Bayo 1 vs 9 days/2 weeks for Bayo 2, I think/hope we all know by now that the 3rd/4th weeks won't be adding much

Considering the 3rd/4th week are in November, the 5th week, another core game Smash is launching(that lot's of gamers also interested in Bayo2 might be waiting for to buy the system), and the 6th week is freaking black Friday week... I think for once, possibly the second month in this case might actually matter. Not everyone that will buy Bayo2 owns a Wii U in the first 9 days of release. I'm not talking miracles, but hopefully it can ride a positive word of mouth/review train to tag along with Smash through the holidays.

 

[theprodigy]

Considering the 3rd/4th week are in November, the 5th week, another core game Smash is launching(that lot's of gamers also interested in Bayo2 might be waiting for to buy the system), and the 6th week is freaking black Friday week... I think for once, possibly the second month in this case might actually matter. Not everyone that will buy Bayo2 owns a Wii U in the first 9 days of release. I'm not talking miracles, but hopefully it can ride a positive word of mouth/review train to tag along with Smash through the holidays.

I hope you don't actually believe Smash is going to boost Bayo 2 as a side effect...

also Word of Mouth™ returns!

 

[jcm]

wait what?

also as a sidenote that may or may not be relevant, Bayonetta 2 was #21 on Amazon Japan for the month of September

Then Amazon bestsellers list isn't just a naive ranking of units for some arbitrary slice of time. It's an algorithm. This is a couple years old, and they are constantly tweaking, but it gives an idea of what's going on.

The exact algorithm Amazon uses to assign a Sales Rank to each book is a closely-guarded secret, but the general make-up is easy to deduce. Simply put, your Sales Rank tells you how many books are selling more than you at this moment in time (it’s updated hourly). However, it also takes account of historical sales. More recent sales are weighted much more heavily in the algorithm, though, and velocity plays a big part too (how much your sales are increasing at that moment in time). There’s a lot more to it, but those are the basics.

 

[FinKL]

I'm a day late, but I'd like to try and do this for my purposes

[360] 72k
[3DS] 102k
[PS3] 49k
[PS4] 425k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 280k

 

[beast786]

i believe it's pretty obvious that xb1 will be the lead console for September . With its juggernaut free game and upcoming best selling exclusive FPS of all time halo. It will also release a game by a developer that they snatch from its competitor . Plus , it's game changing OS update and well negotiated parity clause.

Hence, it's no surprise that professional of industry like patcher who have great insights and in touch with sales channels will predict an out right victory for one in a crucial month of September.

The sales are all about holiday season where majority of console are sold. And MS timed it perfectly to turn the tide in the most important time . Pretty incredible I say

 

[theprodigy]

i believe it's pretty obvious that xb1 will be the lead console for September . With its juggernaut free game and upcoming best selling exclusive FPS of all time halo. It will also release a game by a developer that they snatch from its competitor . Plus , it's game changing OS update and well negotiated parity clause.

Hence, it's no surprise that professional of industry like patcher who have great insights and in touch with sales channels will predict an out right victory for one in a crucial month of September.

The sales are all about holiday season where majority of console are sold. And MS timed it perfectly to turn the tide in the most important time . Pretty incredible I say

haha funny
not

also 19 hours to NPD!

 

[SwiftDeath]

also 19 hours to NPD!

I am fairly excited truth be told

Time until PR usually starts coming out

 

[Aquamarine]

The worldwide headquarters of The NPD Group are in Port Washington, New York....pretty close to where I live actually. Only a 45 minute drive / 25 miles away.

Proof:

Therefore, my timezone (EDT) is the official timezone of NPD! And since it's midnight here...it's now the official beginning of NPD day!

This is going to be fun.

 

[The Llama]

The worldwide headquarters of The NPD Group are in Port Washington, New York....pretty close to where I live actually. Only a 45 minute drive / 25 miles away.

Proof:



Therefore, my timezone (EDT) is the official timezone of NPD! And since it's midnight here...it's now the official beginning of NPD day!

This is going to be fun.

Only like 20 minutes from where my grandmother used to live. No wonder I grew up liking video games so much, it was destiny.

 

[theprodigy]

so....who wants to be bold and make a top 10 prediction for the charts?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Looking at the monthly chart, Bayonetta is #31. I wonder if it's US sales will be better than expected

It's actually above Hyrule Warrior's October sales at #36.

So Bayo 2 preorders on Amazon in October > Hyrule Warriors sales on Amazon in October

Interesting I guess, although I have no idea what exactly that means for the 6% or so of the US market it represents haha.

Prediction for top 10? Here's my shot at it =P. Maybe I'm being too optimistic on all the new titles...
1. Destiny (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
2. FIFA 15 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC, legacy editions)
3. Forza Horizon 2 (XB1, 360)
4. Madden 15 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
5. Smash Bros. 3DS
6. Disney Infinity 2.0 (360, PS3, Wii U, PS4, XB1)
7. Shadows of Mordor (PS4, XB1)
8. Minecraft (360, PS3)
9. Call of Duty: Ghosts (360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3, PC, Wii U)
10. Hyrule Warriors (Wii U)

 

[Beant]

The worldwide headquarters of The NPD Group are in Port Washington, New York....pretty close to where I live actually. Only a 45 minute drive / 25 miles away.

Proof:



Therefore, my timezone (EDT) is the official timezone of NPD! And since it's midnight here...it's now the official beginning of NPD day!

This is going to be fun.

Aquamarine is a bum living in central park confirmed.

NPD day!! Always exciting.

 

[RealityPales]

i believe it's pretty obvious that xb1 will be the lead console for September . With its juggernaut free game and upcoming best selling exclusive FPS of all time halo. It will also release a game by a developer that they snatch from its competitor . Plus , it's game changing OS update and well negotiated parity clause.

Hence, it's no surprise that professional of industry like patcher who have great insights and in touch with sales channels will predict an out right victory for one in a crucial month of September.

The sales are all about holiday season where majority of console are sold. And MS timed it perfectly to turn the tide in the most important time . Pretty incredible I say

Tim Dog, is that you?

 

[quetz67]

I can't believe the thread about Pachter's predictions has drawn so much interest. Why is it that that thread is huge while the NPD prediction thread (the thread where actual sales predictions and and information are discussed) is so small

I think most people believe it isn't allowed to derail the actual predictions by too much discussion.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

In the Pachter thread it was said that well informed GAFers have already ruled out Pachters prediction in this thread.
Can somebody point me to a specific post?

Thanks.

 

[le-seb]

There.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Smash > fifa

Madden x1 > Madden ps4 I am basing this on the x1 version being on sale.

I think hyrule warriors will be number 8 on the software list.

I will write up my top ten later in the day.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

There.

Thanks.

 

[Daviii]

I can't believe the thread about Pachter's predictions has drawn so much interest. Why is it that that thread is huge while the NPD prediction thread (the thread where actual sales predictions and and information are discussed) is so small?

Because Xbox fans are heartbroken and eager for revenge and Playstation fans don't want to be there after the tough PS3 time.

I know... all this sales stuff shouldn't matter. But guess what? It does. It is perfectly human to feel bad/well if the majority agrees/disagrees with your choices.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Smash > fifa

Madden x1 > Madden ps4 I am basing this on the x1 version being on sale.

I think hyrule warriors will be number 8 on the software list.

I will write up my top ten later in the day.

Hmmmm... Smash only has three days tracked, but Fifa is definitely more an "outside of US" series... All of Fifa or the largest SKU (Assumably PS4 or maybe 360)?

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Hmmmm... Smash only has three days tracked, but Fifa is definitely more an "outside of US" series... All of Fifa or the largest SKU (Assumably PS4 or maybe 360)?

I think Smash could out sell all of the Fifa skus. Predicting the software is really tricky because Minecraft could always shoot back in the top 5