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So No New Home Consoles Until 2012 (or 2013)?
- Thread starter squicken
- Start date
McHuj
Member
Referring to the COD content, if MS does release a new Xbox in 2012, that doesn't mean the current Xbox360 will disappear. They can still have exclusive content for the 360 for sometime after the debut of the new box.
I suspect the Xbox360 (and PS3) will still be sold 3-4 years into the life of their replacements. By then, those consoles will be pure profit (if they're not already). No one will force you to upgrade.
I suspect the Xbox360 (and PS3) will still be sold 3-4 years into the life of their replacements. By then, those consoles will be pure profit (if they're not already). No one will force you to upgrade.
I now think Nintendo will release a Wii successor next year, possibly even relatively early next year in Japan. I really think the Wii is going to quickly start to slide, especially in Japan which Nintendo still cares about. If Nintendo has the software ready, I really think we're going to see a new system next year.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
There's the rub. A new Nintendo home console seems like a damn good idea to us right now, but does it seem like a good idea to Iwata? Did it a year ago? Two years ago? A ton of software planning has to go into a new console, and unless they were aiming for the 5 year mark a couple of years ago, they almost can't have it ready.schuelma said:
HisshouBuraiKen
Member
schuelma said:
There is literally zero chance of this happening.
schuelma said:
Has Nintendo ever tried to simultaneously launch a home console AND a handheld? It's been said, but I don't think there's a chance we'll see a new home console until at least six months after the launch of the 3DS. They don't want to cannibalize their own audience.
And given the lack of a price or release date for the 3DS, I don't think it launches until 2011, so I can't see a way in which Nintendo sneaks a console release anywhere in the world until the fall or winter of 2011, at the earliest.
HisshouBuraiKen said:
Well, maybe it is unlikely and I'm a little insane with E3/3DS hype..but zero chance? Why not? If I have my dates right, if Nintendo was following the DS timeline we would get a Wii successor in 2012. The Wii isn't doing nearly as well as the DS and has a lot less revision/milking potential. bmf has a good point in that Nintendo might not have any software for it given the 3DS lineup, so I might be wrong based on that alone. But I'm looking at Nintendo's home market (Japan), and Wii is not healthy at all and it isn't going to get any better.
gutter_trash
Banned
3rd parties don't want new consoles,
consummers don't want new consoles,
I don't want new consoles
consummers don't want new consoles,
I don't want new consoles
Chittagong
Gold Member
My bet is now on Wii HD leading the pack coming out in late 2011.
Other consoles to follow in 2013 is my latest thinking. Neither Microsoft or Sony have an incentive to push out anything new before that. Plus, developing a proper motion controller for the launch of a new Xbox will take a lot of time, and boy they need one.
Other consoles to follow in 2013 is my latest thinking. Neither Microsoft or Sony have an incentive to push out anything new before that. Plus, developing a proper motion controller for the launch of a new Xbox will take a lot of time, and boy they need one.
Hari Seldon
Member
Need some new hardware tech badly.
schuelma said:
On the one hand, I agree with you: the Wii is not performing well in Japan.
On the other hand, it's chances of ever doing brilliantly are pretty much gone, so I'd turn to America to see where the Wii's momentum is really going. (On the third hand, in Europe I'd be surprised if the Wii weren't underperforming when compared to 2009.)
Edit: I agree that the Wii could be released in late 2011, especially in Japan.
I really want a console refresh. I like shinny new tech to play with. I don't think Sony or MS need to drastically change their hardware since the resolution is pretty much set at 1080p. But I would gladly upgrade for a console that had more ram, faster processor and a better video card.
Since it's unlikely we will see anything new on the console front until 2012 I think I will have to build a new gaming PC to tide me over.
Since it's unlikely we will see anything new on the console front until 2012 I think I will have to build a new gaming PC to tide me over.
BertramCooper
Banned
I'm pretty much expecting Nintendo to unveil their new console at next year's E3. I don't think it will be anything more than Iwata holding it up (similar to the Revolution reveal at E3 2005), but I think it will definitely make an appearance.
If you put it on a timeline similar to the Wii, that puts the console out near the end of 2012. And that seems pretty feasible to me.
If you put it on a timeline similar to the Wii, that puts the console out near the end of 2012. And that seems pretty feasible to me.
FunnyBunny
Member
I am in love with this generation of gaming and have no problem if it lasts a few years longer. Furthermore, I'm convinced Microsoft is paving the way for a future-compatible XBox platform.
gerg said:
Couple of points:
1- I see it declining in the U.S in the next year or so. I don't think it will do poorly, but I don't see the compelling software to keep it doing insane numbers. Kirby and DK Country does not equal NSMB Wii and it looks like by and large Nintendo isn't doing as much Wii Fit type stuff.
2- I think the key is how long Nintendo is content to see declining home console profits. Obviously the 3DS is going to make them a ton of money, but I see Wii profits just going down from here, and while to us it is still doing very well, to investors there isn't going to be any growth. If Nintendo is content to just let the Wii die slowly and reap profits and doesn't mind lower profits overall, then yeah its probably 2012/2013.
megashock5
Member
BertramCooper said:
This is in line with my thinking as well, seems the most believable timeline at this point.
flyinpiranha
Member
plasmasd said:
Wut? You's be crazy brah. Red Dead Redemption, Forza 3, Uncharted 2, Batman AA, Gears of War 2, Just Cause 2, Borderlands ... the list goes on and on and on ... and a majority of those are sub 720p and they look fine.
You need to get your eyes checked because I love the way my games look on my 42" 1080p HDTV ... (and yes, I have a PC I built with 22" LCD and it plays Crysis zomg!).
Enjoy the games for what they are, it's not like they are "low-res aliased messes" at all. That's the funniest thing I've read in this thread.
BertramCooper
Banned
Epic Mickey is also slated for a holiday release.gerg said:
I'm not sure how many consoles it will sell, but it's looking to be a blockbuster title for the system.
knitoe said:
Personally I think the current console generation started too early.
The only reason Microsoft killed off the original Xbox after just four years is because NVIDIA stopped manufacturing the GPUs for it. That forced Sony's hand in releasing the PS3. With the PS2 hardware finally making profits and getting some of its best games, Sony had little-to-no need of a new console in 2006.
I would have been perfectly fine with cheaper PS3 and 360 launches in 2007.
Honestly, I don't even like the fact that when new consoles come out, the old ones die off almost instantly. That doesn't happen in other industries.
DVD became the standard because it was given nearly a decade to develop and penetrate the market. When Blu-Ray came out the movie companies didn't just stop releasing DVDs and selling DVD players. They sold Blu-Ray (and kinda still sell it) exclusively to the early-adopting videophiles, waiting until prices go down to mass-market level. Sony sort of did the same with the PS2 - still letting significant new games come out on it through 2008 and keeping the thing on store shelves to this day.
When new consoles come out it would be nice for them to have a "soft launch" - get the systems out there for the hardcore early adopters but keep the main focus on the current gen until costs on the new gen go down far enough.
The people going on about the need for higher resolutions, more anti-aliasing, and better framerates need to realize that those are only minor improvements probably not worth a whole new $400 purchase, at least not to most people.
trudderham
Member
I'm ready for a new generation of consoles now. I was hoping a Wii-HD would tide me over till the next XBox/PS3. Guess I'm going to have to wait at least two years :/
Grampa Simpson
Banned
I absolutely *LOVE* the thought of a new Nintendo console in 2011. I think it would be a brilliant tactical move market wise. I think 3rd parties would take it seriously. I think consumers would take it seriously. I think it would leapfrog the PS360 in capability. I don't think it would get much exclusive content from 3rd parties, same as the PS360 is now - the only exclusives seem to be bought and paid for. What I do think would happen is that the multiplatform games would - because of the leapfrogging - run smoother on the Wii2/WiiHD/WiiHiFi/SuperWii. I think that could suck in a lot of people who want to stay console, but want better frame rates. I think that Nintendo could probably put together a lot of 'the next big thing' with the launch, and if they're lucky pull in the Wii casual crowd.Chittagong said:
I think the fear is, that if they do release a new system and start targeting it, that they'll stop supporting the original Wii, and most of those that started gaming (again?) with the Wii wouldn't bother with the upgrde. That might be a damn good reason for Nintendo to keep the majority of their 1st party games compatible with both (Wii games that get shinier on the Wii2) for at least two years as a form of extended advertising to the expansion audience.
GTG to work. Expect replies in about 13 hours. Blah.
FoneBone said:
That's a more succinct version of my argument
. Basically, unlike the HD twins the 3DS makes the Wii look kind of redundant in a way and especially in Japan I think the Wii is going to really struggle.The thing about new consoles is that it completely fucks your install base. Quite simply, you can't sell 7 million games if your system was only just released. There aren't 7 million people who can even play the game. to be honest, I think that this generation will probably persist longer that is absolutely necessary only because the makers don't want to create a new install base again. I think that all of the consoles have a good amount of staying power, with the PS3 perhaps having a little bit more. No company wants to go through the upfront expense of a new system, and in this economy, who could blame them?
JimboJones
Member
FoneBone said:
What if it actually helps third party support with porting between the systems?
But yah 2011-2012 for a new Wii system seems abut right but i'm leaning too 2012
I don't see Sony releasing a console anytime soon. Nintendo probably will in a couple years, if only to differentiate themselves from Sony's Move.
The big question is if Nintendo will release a console with PS3 level power or more. They aren't exactly known to lose money on hardware and they usually launch theirs at 250$.
MS is a big question mark. They didn't show enough games to suggest ongoing first party development. I could see them release xbox 3 late next year and sell the 360 without a regular controller and headset, and bundle it with Kinect for 200$ or less to get casual gamers while a "hardcore" console is out. They could also continue to sell 360s in Asian and Latin American countries. DVD is catching up to them, HDMI is catching up to them and if hardcore gamers, which are supposedly the major force behind 360, are going to buy the PS3 versions of games for additional content, it would cost MS a lot of royalties money. We will probably know a lot more early next year.
The big question is if Nintendo will release a console with PS3 level power or more. They aren't exactly known to lose money on hardware and they usually launch theirs at 250$.
MS is a big question mark. They didn't show enough games to suggest ongoing first party development. I could see them release xbox 3 late next year and sell the 360 without a regular controller and headset, and bundle it with Kinect for 200$ or less to get casual gamers while a "hardcore" console is out. They could also continue to sell 360s in Asian and Latin American countries. DVD is catching up to them, HDMI is catching up to them and if hardcore gamers, which are supposedly the major force behind 360, are going to buy the PS3 versions of games for additional content, it would cost MS a lot of royalties money. We will probably know a lot more early next year.
KingJ2002
Member
Do we need a new generation right now?
not really... everyone now understands a faster console isn't enough.
and seeing all the new sensors, 3D and motion controls... it's easy to see where the next gen will go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd3-eiid-Uw
not really... everyone now understands a faster console isn't enough.
and seeing all the new sensors, 3D and motion controls... it's easy to see where the next gen will go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd3-eiid-Uw
It may be delayed, but I still expect a new Nintendo console before a Microsoft or Sony console. I'm not sure how Nintendo could innovate at this point, but a Super Wii HD (or whatever they call it) would be enough for a lot of people.
A few incremental changes could include:
A few incremental changes could include:
- Wireless nunchucks and classic pro controllers
- HD (3D?)
- Online (they need to do this big time)
- User profiles instead of games tied to systems
- Make friend codes/profiles universal instead of per game
- 5.1 digital sound
- More DS/3DS connectivity with Super Wii HD (or whatever) - Four Swords?
charlequin
Banned
Luigison said:
Yeah, I used to argue against this, but now I'm increasingly of this opinion. The Wii's inevitable decline by 2012, and what is now almost certainly going to be the success of launching the 3DS earlier than expected, makes me think that diving in headfirst to the next console generation for Nintendo is a very good idea.
I can't believe people think MS or Sony would release new consoles just to give developers a chance to do 1080p, and 60 FPS. Even more so, I can't believe people think developers would actually spend the extra power on getting the framerate to 60fps, something that can't be conveyed in screenshots. People please, if you want higher resolutions and framerates in your games, then you're better off just sticking to PC where you can set it yourself. Some of you must just be swimming in money, or have nothing else better to spend it on.
charlequin said:
Indeed.
The question is, would Nintendo be able to rally third-party support behind them, either pro-actively or otherwise? What technical capabilities would Nintendo need to offer to prevent them simply being out-classed technologically by a Microsoft or Sony announcement? Or would the benefit of simply launching a year ahead of the competition be worth it? (Would that be feasible?)
Edit: The prospect of a new console release in 2011 is just... :lol
If we have a new console with significantly more power, I just have a feeling that it's going to reduce risk-taking even more in games and we'll simply have more 'safe games' aka FPS and sports/racing titles. Developers have plenty to play with. Just look at Gran Turismo 5... I'd rather game developers do something creative than slap a new coat of graphical paint on top of things.
NeonZ
Member
I can see a new Wii next year, if the 3DS doesn't take too long to be launched. Nintendo has nearly no support of third parties and it'll only get worse now with the 3DS making the Wii completely obsolete and receiving more focus from Nintendo itself. Sales are down in Japan, supposedly falling in Europe and, although they're still good in the USA, they're falling too.
Letting it just continue during more than one year from now, without attempting anything high profile, might just damage their home console brand again worldwide. Of course, like others have mentioned, the big problem would be software. I don't see how Nintendo by itself could launch the system with a good number of games. They would need support from 3rd parties and, even with a stronger system, Nintendo might find itself without that kind of pull in the console space.
However, I think the launch of this 3DS is pretty much forcing the launch of a new home console. I don't see how the current Wii can really coexist healthy with the new DS.
Letting it just continue during more than one year from now, without attempting anything high profile, might just damage their home console brand again worldwide. Of course, like others have mentioned, the big problem would be software. I don't see how Nintendo by itself could launch the system with a good number of games. They would need support from 3rd parties and, even with a stronger system, Nintendo might find itself without that kind of pull in the console space.
However, I think the launch of this 3DS is pretty much forcing the launch of a new home console. I don't see how the current Wii can really coexist healthy with the new DS.
Tim the Wiz
Banned
NeonZ said:
Agreed. The 3DS launching this fiscal year pretty much guarantees a Wii successor by 2012. They could obviously afford to stretch it out and take a heavy development-side approach to things and launch a year later, but I can't see it happening based on the current trajectory of sales with their savvy. So, unless Wii software sales exceed expectations over the next twelve months, even in the face of the 3DS launch, and push a corresponding boost in hardware sales, 2012 is quite rightly being pointed to as the no-later-than launch window.
Tim the Wiz said:
I'm going with this as well. Nintendo's not stupid. They knew the 3DS was going to have a strong impact when it was announced. I don't know what they could do to really prop up Wii sales any further than another year or so, and with the Vitality Sensor going MIA (likely next-console bound), there's no clear sign that they want the Wii's lifetime to be extended.