serversurfer
Member
/nod
Okay. I don't know how money is made in the gaming industry but I'll make a comparison. In the film industry, studios concentrate mostly on domestic box offices, because in the worldwide BOs, they make back only half of the revenue.
I don't know what the circumstances are here, but I suspect that sony needs most of their sales domestically, because they don't make as much profit worldwide. and this should go for developers as well.
I'm not disputing what was stated in your link though. it most definitely makes sense.
Your analogy is inaccurate. The profit margin for the PS4 is equally strong in the EU. 399 euros is not 399 dollars. Again, this isn't film, and that margin comes without a great deal of competition elsewhere, not to mention the lion share of game sales for the platform.
Okay. I don't know how money is made in the gaming industry but I'll make a comparison. In the film industry, studios concentrate mostly on domestic box offices, because in the worldwide BOs, they make back only half of the revenue.
I don't know what the circumstances are here, but I suspect that sony needs most of their sales domestically, because they don't make as much profit worldwide. and this should go for developers as well.
I'm not disputing what was stated in your link though. it most definitely makes sense.
Well, that's why I essentially started off with a disclaimer. So you're telling me sony makes full profit on consoles sold anywhere across the globe, that's really good for them.
not really.
film studios, on average, only recoup 50-55% of domestic box office revenues.
they don't focus on domestic for the higher % return than international.
FM5, QB and Fable Legends somewhere after E3? Too close to each other. Plus the Gears collection and the third party draws like COD that Xbox Owners love? EA's Battlefront, Ubisoft Assassins Creed, plus whatever Take Two has lined up. Yeah disposable income will be extremely stretched out. More so when you consider the games that are coming out this year before Fall. If any of the first party exclusives get low review scores = an almost guaranteed flop.
No better proof of that than the blockbuster movies 'tailored' for international audiences. Iron Man 2 had scenes and new characters made exclusively for the Chinese release.Well truth is you could say that was the case maybe 15- 25 years ago .
But that all change when the international box office keep on getting bigger and bigger .
At least in Finland there are no price cuts. We don't have the same kind of tracking as NPD does in US or Media Create in Japan (you might want to check those threads to keep up-to-date on Japanese sales), but here is one tidbit:But... is the xbone's price cut effective worldwide or just the states?
No better proof of that than the blockbuster movies 'tailored' for international audiences. Iron Man 2 had scenes and new characters made exclusively for the Chinese release.
The PS4 console itself has been selling at profit in all regions since at least May, 2014. At launch, it was "profitable with the initial average purchase."Well, that's why I essentially started off with a disclaimer. So you're telling me sony makes full profit on consoles sold anywhere across the globe, that's really good for them.
http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20130620-is-china-hollywoods-futureAccording to recent figures from the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) almost 70 per cent of the studios annual revenue from box office now comes from international markets.
MS haven't talked about sell through since the end of 2013, when they were at 3M.Do you think MS will one day tell us the sold through number ?
i'm tired to hear the the shipped numbers --'
Do you think MS will one day tell us the sold through number ?
i'm tired to hear the the shipped numbers --'
I wouldn't be surprised if their shareholders were asking exactly the same question.
I wouldn't be surprised if their shareholders were asking exactly the same question.
I don't think their shareholders care all that much.
I wouldn't be surprised if their shareholders were asking exactly the same question.
Do you think MS will one day tell us the sold through number ?
i'm tired to hear the the shipped numbers --'
Slim ps4 leaked. has this been posted yet ?
http://www.nu.nl/games/3979727/fotos-compactere-playstation-4-slim-gelekt.html#playstation-4-slim-2
Recall what I wrote:So chithanh was partly right in AMD are shipping the APU's themselves but wrong about the royalty and I was wrong about the license fee.
I am pretty sure that AMD is not involved in manufacturing and sale of Xenos/Xenon. They only license their IP (and services) and the whole thing at least used to be fabbed by IBM and sold directly to Microsoft.AMD just needs to read Sony's (or Microsofts up to Q1 2014) financial reports to find out how much APU shipments were ahead of console shipments in past quarters. Also don't forget that AMD earns royalties on Xbox 360's Xenos GPU, which makes the numbers transparent for them despite Microsoft reporting only combined shipments.
At least in Finland there are no price cuts. We don't have the same kind of tracking as NPD does in US or Media Create in Japan (you might want to check those threads to keep up-to-date on Japanese sales), but here is one tidbit:
Verkkokauppa.com is the largest consumer electronics retailer in Finland. The most popular Xbox One (link) and PS4 (link) SKUs are priced 394,90€ and 399,90€, respectively. Do note, that these prices include the value add tax (European for sales tax), which in Finland is 24%.
With the price of euro going down in relation to US dollar, American companies are making less money for sales in Europe. I don't know, what the exchange rate to Japanese yen is, however. With Sony being a Japan based company, that is of interest to them.
Anywho, Verkkokauppa.com is nice enough to let us know their recent sales and stock refills. For Xbox one, the five last sales are as follows (you can check the status by clicking the text "Viimeksi myyty"):
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl (= 3 days ago, 1 piece)
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
3 päivää sitten 1 kpl
For PS4 the same list shows:
Tänään 09:14 1 kpl (= Today at 09.14 am, 1 piece)
Tänään 08:37 1 kpl
Tänään 07:16 1 kpl
Eilen 17:24 1 kpl (= Yesterday 5:24 pm, 1 piece)
Eilen 14:39 1 kpl
Then about the restocking. For Xbox One we see ("Viimeksi saapuneet"):
5 päivää sitten 6 kpl (= 5 days ago, 6 pieces)
14 päivää sitten 1 kpl
18 päivää sitten 1 kpl
19 päivää sitten 1 kpl
20 päivää sitten 2 kpl
And PS4:
7 päivää sitten 2 kpl
11 päivää sitten 1 kpl
11 päivää sitten yli 25 kpl (= 11 days ago, more than 25 pieces)
11 päivää sitten 20 kpl
11 päivää sitten yli 25 kpl
There is really reason to own an Xbox One over PS4 in Finland, since the media services are not available here and voice commands are not supported, and it shows. I would imagine that the situation is very similar in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Probably also in Netherlands and most other Western European tier 2 countries.
This is more of a pummeling than competition.
I thought Sony made $18 off every ps4 sold?The PS4 console itself has been selling at profit in all regions since at least May, 2014. At launch, it was "profitable with the initial average purchase."
One of you snitches told Verendus about me losing the avatar bet.
>.>
<.<
I want PS4 to have all the (Japanese) exclusives.
It will probably happen too if that WW sales ratio continues to drastically skew in its favour lol
I thought Sony made $18 off every ps4 sold?
Boy, I really wish the PS4 Slim was this small...Slim ps4 leaked. has this been posted yet ?
http://www.nu.nl/games/3979727/fotos-compactere-playstation-4-slim-gelekt.html#playstation-4-slim-2
None of them actually do the manufacturing. AMD is fabless these days and Sony doesn't have a suitable foundry right now. Most of theirs are dedicated to image sensors. The actual chips can be made by TSMC, Global Foundries or any other suitable semiconductor manufacturing company. Due to the licensing issues AMD and Sony probably work together to decide who will make the chips, then Sony places an order through AMD who contracts the manufacturer.
Err, 4M worldwide for all of 2014? That sounds low, even to me. =/
Excellent, and wow, less than a 10% drop in Q2 2013. 29% in Q3 2013 is a little more in line with what we saw for Q4 2013 and Q1 2014. Sooooo for 2014… maybe figure 30% drops in Q2 and Q3, and we've already figured 40% for Q4?
That'd make their estimated* 2014 XB2 shipments:
Q1 0.8M
Q2 0.7M*
Q3 0.8M*
Q4 2.1M*
Leaving this for XB3:
Q1 1.2M
Q2 0.4M*
Q3 1.6M*
Q4 ????
So that would be 3.2M* Bones shipped Jan-Sep. By comparison, Sony shipped 3.0M PS4s Jan-Mar. Then another 2.7M, and then another 3.3M. So Sony shipped 9M to Microsoft's 3.2M* in the same period.
That all sound reasonably solid? Even if we bump Q2 and Q3 to 40% drops, that would only add 200k to XB3's total, giving them 3.4M* shipped Jan-Sep.
Basically what I did. I think Q2 would fall more in line with a 40% drop, since Q4 2013 experienced a 41% drop from 2012, and Q1 2014 experienced a 38% drop from 2013, so it seems with the launch of the Xbox One, it is dropping ~40% YOY, and Q3 is going to see the Xbox One go up significantly, and the past 2 years has seen the 360 go down by almost 30% YOY, so I think the continuation of the 360 dropping 40% YOY is alright.
So I'd say for 360:
Q1: 800K
Q2: 600K*
Q3: 700k*
And for the One:
Q1: 1.2m
Q2: 500k*
Q3: 1.7m*
So yeah, 3.4m is what I can see the Xbox One shipping in all of 2014 before Q4. One thing that is interesting about this is that this means that shipping wise, the Xbox One was equal to the Wii U in total shipments. 7.29m to 7.3m (Wii U - Xbox One).
Now Q4 is going to be something. Now personally, I see the "Xbox family" shipping 6m units in Q4, with 2 million going to the 360, and 4 million going to the Xbox One. 360 continuing it's consistent 40% drop, and the Xbox One being only slight up from 2013. I don't think MS want the Xbox One to be down YOY in the holiday after launch, so that could explain the channel stuffing we've been hearing about.
So 360:
Q1: 800K
Q2: 600K*
Q3: 700k*
Q4: 2.0m*
Total 2014: 4.1m*
Total LTD: 87m*
And for the One:
Q1: 1.2m
Q2: 500k*
Q3: 1.7m*
Q4: 4.0m*
Total 2014: 7.4m*
Total LTD: 11.3m*
4M in Q4 seems kinda optimistic though. That's a fairly significant increase over their Q1-3 numbers.
So yeah, 4M in Q4 seems like a lot given the year they had leading up to it. Even taking in to account the T2 launch bump, I could probably see them doubling their Jan-Sep numbers and doing another 3.4M. That's not a ridiculous number in and of itself, so I could see MS moving that many. That would give them 6.8M on the year and 10.7M LTD. That will let them hang on to "outpacing the 360," so I don't see much need for them to push through much more than that. Anything extra they ship in Q4 is just going to come out of the Q1/Q2 shipments anyway. I'm sure they'll do at least 10.5M LTD, if only for the 360 thing, but I don't seem them doing more than 11M, given their seemingly slow year. Yeah, yeah, big turn-around, but only in 50% of 40% of the market, remember?
So besides 2006, 2013, and 2014, the 360 has always seen an increase of shipments in Q4 compared to the other 3 combined. As an average, it's an increase of 15%. So Id say anywhere between 3.5m and 4m is what we should expect.
Not while Sony is dominating them. They are probably afraid that the real numbers makes them look weak.
It's a fake.
It's a fake, mate, there's no room in this design for proper APU cooling.We don't know that yet. It is somewhat convincing.
Oh, you actually said, "Xbox One," but XB2 makes a lot more sense. lolWell I did say over 4 million for Xbox 360. But not by much, certainly won't be over 4.5 million unless 360 suddenly did amazing.
I like how when I come up with a "Should be this, give or take," you always seem to say, "Yes, that will be the absolute minimum."I would say that yes, between 3.4-3.6m Xbox One's have already been shipped in 2014 but I do believe that you are really underestimating Q4.
Perhaps, but I think you guys are overestimating T2. As I conceded, I may be mistaken to do so with Microsoft, but I'm mostly just looking at demand here. Shipments were running 850k/quarter in T1. For the T2 launch, they pumped out an additional 850k. Yes, there are 28 countries in T2, but they're all much smaller than Spain, where they sold ~25k at launch, and probably like 35k over the following year. So given the size of these markets and XB3's demand in the non-English world, how long do you think it would take them to burn through their launch shipment of 850k? Remember that the launches didn't even take place until September, so it's not like they even had a full month to burn through stock, much less a full quarter. Even if all 28 countries moved 25k at launch just like Spain, that's only 700k, and even that seems like a wildly optimistic result. If demand was as strong as Spain, why postpone the planned launches? Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if most of those launch units were still unsold to this day.I think you're really underestimating Q4.
Oh, you actually said, "Xbox One," but XB2 makes a lot more sense. lol
I like how when I come up with a "Should be this, give or take," you always seem to say, "Yes, that will be the absolute minimum."
Perhaps, but I think you guys are overestimating T2. As I conceded, I may be mistaken to do so with Microsoft, but I'm mostly just looking at demand here. Shipments were running 850k/quarter in T1. For the T2 launch, they pumped out an additional 850k. Yes, there are 28 countries in T2, but they're all much smaller than Spain, where they sold ~25k at launch, and probably like 35k over the following year. So given the size of these markets and XB3's demand in the non-English world, how long do you think it would take them to burn through their launch shipment of 850k? Remember that the launches didn't even take place until September, so it's not like they even had a full month to burn through stock, much less a full quarter. Even if all 28 countries moved 25k at launch just like Spain, that's only 700k, and even that seems like a wildly optimistic result. If demand was as strong as Spain, why postpone the planned launches? Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if most of those launch units were still unsold to this day.
So to me, it seems unrealistic to add in that 850k before you start multiplying out to estimate the holiday boost. It seems quite unlikely those countries burned through 850k in a month, and then turned around and ordered another 850k by Christmas. That's why I don't think the baseline, pre-holiday demand was 1.2+0.5+1.7=3.4M, but rather 0.85*3=2.55M, plus maybe a couple hundred thousand from T2. See what I'm trying to say?
But like I said, it's MS. They could've shipped 4.5M this quarter. I just don't see where they could've sold them.
Are you guys factoring in the possibility that a few of T2 countries were importing consoles from Germany? So once X1 was released in these T2 countries, Germany would have taken a slight hit in sales?
Would you mind explaining to me what exactly the controversy behind Germany is
No controversy, just T2 countries slightly adding to Germany's sales before the console released in those countries.
Tbh imports happen everywhere for everything. Whilst they do need to be taken into consideration they can ultimately be ignored as it factors in naturally. They still count as sales overall in the respective country and we know that German sales for X1 was 100k as 12/2013 and 270k as of 11/2014.
what's the Ps4:Xbone sales ratio there?
1,200,000 vs 270,000.
(as of November 2014)
You do the math.
Well, yeah. We got to 3.4M for XB3 by looking at XB2 drops of roughly 40% and applying that to the mystery shipments. Since 40% is an estimate based on observed drops, it's safe to assume it won't be exactly 40%, and could instead be a bit more or less. So it would be "3.4M XB3, give or take." Except you don't give; you just take. So instead of taking our baseline estimate of 3.4M and saying 3.3-3.5M or even 3.2-3.6M, you instead say 3.4-3.6M, effectively tacking another 100k on to our baseline. So you're taking our best guess based on available data, and then padding it based on your optimism for their performance.Haha, because I think 3.4m will be the minimum.
Sorry, sure. In Q1, MS shipped 1.2M, but told us they over-shipped and would be correcting in Q2. In Q2, they shipped 500k*, giving them a total of 1.7M shipped in the first half of the year. This is pre-T2, so it gives us a good idea of the overall demand in T1; 850k/quarter. If we assume T1 had similar demand in Q3, that would be another 850k for them, but they actually shipped 1.7M, which would seem to imply a shipment of 850k for the T2 launch, because we know T1 only needed 850k based on what they'd been ordering in the first half of the year.Can you clarify where your 850k number comes from? I haven't heard this before?
Well, yeah. We got to 3.4M for XB3 by looking at XB2 drops of roughly 40% and applying that to the mystery shipments. Since 40% is an estimate based on observed drops, it's safe to assume it won't be exactly 40%, and could instead be a bit more or less. So it would be "3.4M XB3, give or take." Except you don't give; you just take. So instead of taking our baseline estimate of 3.4M and saying 3.3-3.5M or even 3.2-3.6M, you instead say 3.4-3.6M, effectively tacking another 100k on to our baseline. So you're taking our best guess based on available data, and then padding it based on your optimism for their performance.
That takes us to 11.5m-12.0m sold in.
I thought that was supposed to be too optimistic.
EDIT: sold in means shipped, correct?
Yes.
Sold in = Sold to retail
Sold through = Sold to consumer
We don't know that yet. It is somewhat convincing.