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[Pedigree Chum]

http://gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=14930

Recent speculation over the launch date of Sony's PS3 may not be particularly well-informed, but it does demonstrate the degree to which both consumers and the industry have lost faith in Sony's ability to deliver on its commitments, says Rob Fahey.

PlayStation 3 remains the mystery console for which far more questions have been posed than answers have ever been offered. Information on the console remains sparse, but to date, Sony hasn't actually broken any of its commitments regarding the platform - largely, it has to be said, because the firm has been incredibly evasive about ever making any such commitments.

All of that may be about to change. Every sign now suggests that Sony is about to break the first of its PS3 promises - specifically, the very tentative "Spring 2006" date which has been attached to the system since the very first official pronouncements were made about the PlayStation's next-generation sibling.

The problem is that the first day of spring on the calendar falls next Wednesday, and from that day Sony has a three-month window in which to launch the console, at least in some form, in order to make good on its commitment. That may not sound unreasonable, but bear in mind that as yet we have no idea what price point is planned for the console, what territory is to be targeted for launch first, what software will be available, what the marketing campaign will look like or even whether the system is being manufactured as yet.

Despite this, Sony is adamant that it will get the machine out the door on schedule. Third parties are less convinced, and we know of few if any in the west who are working on products for a Spring release - although we can't speak for Japanese publishers, who for all we know could be supporting a Spring launch to the hilt, however unlikely that may seem. Retail, meanwhile, is preparing for an autumn / winter launch for the system, and the industry in Europe is hopeful of a pre-Christmas launch, but will express little surprise if we end up seeing the PS3 in March 2007 - despite constant assurances to the contrary which European publishers claim to have received.

Ultimately, the simple problem here is that nobody trusts a word Sony says about its launch schedule. While the paranoid and often overtly negative comments of some analysts and journalists have suggested massive delays to the PS3 for often entirely spurious reasons - and some of the price estimates for the console floating around are downright ridiculous - there's no doubt that Sony's already dubious track record for delivering hardware has taken a serious battering from the botched launch of the PlayStation Portable, and the firm's silence on PS3 isn't helping matters much.

We understand perfectly what a tricky balancing act Sony faces at the moment and over the coming years, with no fewer than three platforms to keep healthy simultaneously in very closely related markets. We understand that Microsoft has forced Sony's hand, and that the Japanese electronics giant would be far happier to just bury the PS3 for many more months and focus on selling more PS2s, more PSPs and more software. However, none of those things change the fact that its current information blackout on PS3 is coming across as sheer arrogance to the rest of the market - and that the industry's implicit assumption is that the firm is lying about the spring date.

After all, if you're going to launch a brand new console platform in three months time, you'd rather if your partners - not just in publishing, but in development, in retail, and even in media - knew about it by now. Secrecy is all very well, but with each passing day the sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 grow stronger, the software line-up improves, the supply channels become more robust and the company's offering becomes more attractive to consumers. If the spring launch isn't going to happen, or just as importantly, if the spring launch is going to see a dismal trickle of units released into the Japanese market followed by a wait of several before it hits the rest of the world, Sony needs to start telling people now, and letting them know where it goes from here.

 

[Gek54]

PS3 gizmondoed total.

 

[kenta]

Very good article, Sony needs to read it a couple times

 

[Il Comodino]

[...]but with each passing day the sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 grow stronger, the software line-up improves, the supply channels become more robust[...]

:lol

 

[Rhindle]

:lol

:lol

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

:lol

What's so funny, I know a few people that have been picking up 360s lately. They are starting to move more units at a faster rate.

 

[thetrin]

What's so funny, I know a few people that have been picking up 360s lately. They are starting to move more units at a faster rate.

That doesn't make the lineup better. I have a freakin' 360, and I haven't bought a game in months. I gotta wait until stupid Oblivion comes out to play something.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

That doesn't make the lineup better. I have a freakin' 360, and I haven't bought a game in months. I gotta wait until stupid Oblivion comes out to play something.

I think the lineup is getting better. DOA4 is a very good game, Fight Night 3 is a very good game. March is crazy for the 360. Your personal preferences have you waiting for Oblivion, but there has been some good releases since the launch of the console.

 

[fartblast]

i have a 360 but i just can't get pumped up to play it like i used to, nor can i get excited for upcoming games because i dont have an hd set

im such a bastard

 

[Oblivion]

What's so funny, I know a few people that have been picking up 360s lately. They are starting to move more units at a faster rate.

Sure they are.

 

[choplifter]

how is Sony "crying wolf"?

 

[Borys]

:lol

:lol

 

[SolidSnakex]

how is Sony "crying wolf"?

Catchy headlines are fun.

 

[Maximilian E.]

After all, if you're going to launch a brand new console platform in three months time, you'd rather if your partners - not just in publishing, but in development, in retail, and even in media - knew about it by now.

I think this is a key comment. There should have been some leaks if Sony would aim for a Spring release. All the rumours about the release are for a Q3-period...

 

[Il Comodino]

What's so funny, I know a few people that have been picking up 360s lately. They are starting to move more units at a faster rate.

It's funny, becouse from today to september, how many titles could have X360?

30? 40? 50?

too few title for chenge the market

and the best games are for Pc too (Oblivion, GR)

This is my opinion

 

[thorns]

how is Sony "crying wolf"?

they're saying they'll launch in spring even though it seems they won't?
and just like in the tale, noone really believes them anymore?

 

[fartblast]

It's funny, becouse frome here to september, how many titles could have X360?

30? 40? 50?

too few title for chenge the market

and the best games are for Pc too (Oblivion, GR)

This is my opinion

yeah and talk to anyone who plays games casually and try telling them 360 will have a bunch of awesome games by the time ps3 comes out, they wont give a shit

 

[Nightbringer]

Sony isn´t worried since IBM cannot provide enough Xenon/Waternose processors for the 360 assembly line.

Sony has made factories for making Cell, MS not and IBM is very good in I+D but is horrible in quantity of processors produced.

 

[aaaaa0]

I think this is a key comment. There should have been some leaks if Sony would aim for a Spring release. All the rumours about the release are for a Q3-period...

Not just that, but the factories need to be going at full tilt right NOW if they're going to launch in just 3 months (end of spring). We'd have heard by now if that was happening.

 

[DSN2K]

sounds like Rob Fahey is crying wolf to me.

problem is Sony are not saying anything.

 

[the androgyne]

I never believed spring - but if they have missed spring (assuming they were ever really aiming for it ) - why the hell are they holding out on telling us?

What are they gonna do, wait until E3 when Nintendo announces all key Revolution details and steals the show, and then say 'oh yeah, we ROCK - PS3 DELAYED!!!!'?

 

[gofreak]

they're saying they'll launch in spring even though it seems they won't?
and just like in the tale, noone really believes them anymore?

The wolf eventually came, IIRC

I think Sony certainly was targetting Spring, honestly and genuinely. If that's delayed a short while, so be it.

 

[Maximilian E.]

Not just that, but the factories need to be going at full tilt right NOW if they're going to launch in just 3 months (end of spring). We'd have heard by now if that was happening.

exactly!

 

[INTERNET]

Sony should get bent over by a shareholder lawsuit if they can't manage to launch this spring, as otherwise it HAS to have been apparent internally for some time that PS3 was going to be delayed. To blatantly lie to your investors this way indicates deep structural damage.

 

[DSN2K]

What are they gonna do, wait until E3 when Nintendo announces all key Revolution details and steals the show, and then say 'oh yeah, we ROCK - PS3 DELAYED!!!!'?

Revolution plays no role at all in this, console is irrelevant like the GameCube until Nintendo prove otherwise.

only thing on Sony's mind is Microsoft turning up at E3 with a 5m+ platform at full speed.

 

[Il Comodino]

by the time ps3 comes out, they wont give a shit

you say?

I don't think

 

[I <3 Katamari]

Revolution plays no role at all in this, console is irrelevant like the GameCube until Nintendo prove otherwise.

Absolutely wrong.

I can't believe people still have the "Nintendo doesn't matter" mindset.

 

[Nightbringer]

¿Microsoft console at full speed?

Sony with the first Playstation created a lot of popular franchises with the help of the third parties that killed Dreamcast sales only with the promise of sequels of those games in PS2.

Ask this to a casual gamer:

What is better for you, Forza or Gran Turismo?

They will say Gran Turismo because Sony has made the series popular. Sorry Microsoft but you need to improve the popularity and the image of all your games without the name Halo. For example Kameo is a very good game but it has sold less than it could have sell with a good campaign.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

how does this change the fact that if if Sony is able to launch with a million plus units this fall (if not more) they'll sell out of every single one?

It doesn't.

Hype is still significant... especially SONY hype in the console market. Bottom line.

 

[INTERNET]

only thing on Sony's mind is Microsoft turning up at E3 with a 5m+ platform at full speed.

The only thing on Henry Ford's mind was a sputtering jalopy that was the only game in town.

 

[Jonnyram]

Not just that, but the factories need to be going at full tilt right NOW if they're going to launch in just 3 months (end of spring). We'd have heard by now if that was happening.

No way. All the factory workers have signed watertight NDAs!!!

 

[Il Comodino]

Absolutely wrong.

I can't believe people still have the "Nintendo doesn't matter" mindset.

I Agree

Nintendo is a great competitor, particularly for Sony in Japan market.

 

[Maximilian E.]

¿Microsoft console at full speed?

Sony with the first Playstation created a lot of popular franchises with the help of the third parties that killed Dreamcast sales only with the promise of sequels of those games in PS2.

Ask this to a casual gamer:

What is better for you, Forza or Gran Turismo?

They will say Gran Turismo because Sony has made the series popular. Sorry Microsoft but you need to improve the popularity and the image of all your games without the name Halo. For example Kameo is a very good game but it has sold less than it can sell with a good campaign.

The thing now is that the majority of all those "sony pushing games" that sold lots of hardware and that were exclusive in one way or another, are not appearing as multiplatform games.

Sure, there are still some games from third partys that seems to give sony an exclusivity, MGS, Devil may cry and such but we will see far less exclusive third party content on a Sony plattform than ever before, due to increased costs.

I think MS has started off pretty good with some exclusivity of third partys, Mistwalkers 2 games (the third one not entirely sure), Bioware, Silicon Knight, Lionhead, Capcom, Namco..to name a few (we still have to see the quality of these game).

So when a casual has to choose a plattform now, he/she can go with either Sony or MS..

things´a changin...

 

[SolidSnakex]

The thing now is that the majority of all those "sony pushing games" that sold lots of hardware and that were exclusive in one way or another, are not appearing as multiplatform games.

Sure, there are still some games from third partys that seems to give sony an exclusivity, MGS, Devil may cry and such but we will see far less exclusive third party content on a Sony plattform than ever before, due to increased costs.

Doesn't matter if there are less exclusives as long as Sony manages to get the right ones to stay exclusive. That'll bring in the casual crowd.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

Doesn't matter if there are less exclusives as long as Sony manages to get the right ones to stay exclusive. That'll bring in the casual crowd.

shhhhhhhhh *whisper* let the Xbot believe what he wants

man...

 

[Zombie James]

This just in: Sony cries wolf, renames Playstation 3 to Playstation 2. Playstation 2 > Xbox 360.

We have seen the light.

 

[R0nn]

It's funny, becouse from today to september, how many titles could have X360?

30? 40? 50?

too few title for chenge the market

and the best games are for Pc too (Oblivion, GR)

This is my opinion

I like how some people act like the PC and X360 versions of GRAW are comparable. The X360 version is an entirely different beast and one of the first titles which truly takes advantage of next-gen hardware capabilities.

I don't know what's laughable about gameindustry's comment at all. The Xbox 360 is still selling strong in both Europe and the US. The only thing which is bringing sales numbers down is their supply problems. Those supply problems ARE being resolved right now though, with the third factory up and running. Also, overall software quality IS picking up. Games like DOA4, Fight Night 3, GRAW and Oblivion are all very worthy additions to the platform's line-up. More promising titles like Splinter Cell: Double Agent (seperate next-gen version) and Dead Rising are up and coming as well. So yeah, the longer Sony waits out, the bigger and more popular the X360 will get. It's as simple as that.

 

[Papi]

:lol

:lol

 

[Rhindle]

shhhhhhhhh *whisper* let the Xbot believe what he wants

man...

:lol :lol Like totally man. What will those dumbass Xbots come up with next?

 

[TheJollyCorner]

:lol :lol Like totally man. What will those stupid Xbots come up with next?

Lord of the Blings!

 

[iapetus]

we have no idea what price point is planned for the console, what territory is to be targeted for launch first, what software will be available, what the marketing campaign will look like or even whether the system is being manufactured as yet.

Is this because 'we' are stupid? PlayStation launched in Japan first. PS2 launched in Japan first. PSP launched in Japan first. PSX launched in Japan first and possibly only.

I'm spotting some sort of pattern emerging that may only be clear to a top-notch analytical mind...

Despite this, Sony is adamant that it will get the machine out the door on schedule. Third parties are less convinced, and we know of few if any in the west who are working on products for a Spring release - although we can't speak for Japanese publishers, who for all we know could be supporting a Spring launch to the hilt, however unlikely that may seem.

Here, though, he has a point. It's insane to think you could launch a console with few Western developers providing titles for the Japanese launch. Any console that did that would be doomed to failure, and Sony knows it. Just look at all the Western-developed titles they had at PS2 launch:

Ridge Racer V (Racing Namco)
Eternal Ring (Adventure, From Software)
Kessen (Strategic sim, KOEI)
Popolocrois 3 ("Romantic anime," Sony)
Unison (Dance action and sim, Tecmo)
Drum Mania (Action, Konami)
Den Sen Electric Lines (Action, Sony)
A-Train (Sim, Artdink)
Street Fighter EX3 (Fighter, Capcom)
Morita Shogi (Strategy, Yuki Enterprise)
Kakinoki Shogi (Strategy, Ascii Entertainment)
Doukyu Billiards 2 (Simulation, Ask)
Stepping Selection (Dancing Arcade, Jaleco)

No EA sports games at launch, and the Japanese just won't buy it.

And not knowing what 'cries wolf' means is just the icing on the cake...

 

[zou]

Is this because 'we' are stupid? PlayStation launched in Japan first. PS2 launched in Japan first. PSP launched in Japan first. PSX launched in Japan first and possibly only.

I'm spotting some sort of pattern emerging that may only be clear to a top-notch analytical mind...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't all of Nintendo's consoles launch in japan first, and then they brought the DS to the states first? Only a couple of weeks earlier, but still.

 

[iapetus]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't all of Nintendo's consoles launch in japan first, and then they brought the DS to the states first? Only a couple of weeks earlier, but still.

I'm not saying it's a rock-solid guarantee. But to claim that 'we' have no idea which market it will launch in first seems just a little bit silly. Add in the claim that most Western devs aren't working towards a spring launch, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that if a spring launch is on the cards still then it's in Japan.

 

[Maximilian E.]

Doesn't matter if there are less exclusives as long as Sony manages to get the right ones to stay exclusive. That'll bring in the casual crowd.

Or.. things can change, were former Sony exclusives now are MS exclusives... or released simultaneously on both plattforms.

The landscape of things in the biz are changing, due to the fact that Sony will not have as big of a gap saleswise against MS. With PS2, thirdparty game could sell very well thanks to the great userbase.

With 360 and PS3, it will far more equal (but Sony will likely pass MS in the long run, but the gap will not be around 60+ million units)

So iy you think things will be same as with PS2 and Xbox, you are in for a great dissapointment..

 

[gofreak]

Or.. things can change, were former Sony exclusives no are MS exclusives...

Just like last gen! (well, not MS, necessarily, but it did happen that big PSone names became exclusive to competing systems).

So iy you think things will be same as with PS2 and Xbox, you are in for a great dissapointment..

What was it like with the PS2 and Xbox? Most western games, at least, were multiplatform already.

PS2's biggest strength was that it had (nearly) all of the western support (which was often multiplatform already, even if PS2 often got priority) AND all of the Japanese support (which was often exclusive), and a very varied and broad first party catalgoue. All of that combined gave PS2 the largest and most diverse catalogue..I don't see those things changing much for PS3.

Reportedly, for many publishers it's business as usual going into the next generation as far as relative priority of consoles goes.

 

[Maximilian E.]

What was it like with the PS2 and Xbox? Most games were multiplatform already.

Reportedly, for many publishers it's business as usual going into the next generation as far as relative priority of consoles goes.

Regarding Xbox/PS2..
Yes, eventually the majority of games went multiplattform but several big hitters on PS2 came much later on Xbox (MGS2 and GTA to name a few). Still, PS2 benefited from several exclusives (DMC, MGS3... to name others).

I cannot entirely agree that business is as usual for publishers. With PS2/Xbox, the focus where mostly on PS2, because there was the potential of selling lots of units, so therefore publishers focused more on PS2 (granted, Xbox did get a good sheer of focus as well, this was most from Western devs and the PC-mafia and such)

Anyways..
Entering this gen, things have change. Sony will no longer benefit from the huge gap salewise and games are more expensive to make. So it will be far more logical to release games on several plattforms in the same time (at least this is their standpoint).. unless moneyhats are involved.

(Now somebody will bring up that EA was focusing more on PS3 than the others, but not all publishers are doing that. If you look at it overall, both PS3 and 360 seems to have the same focus, some more some less)

PS2's biggest strength was that it had (nearly) all of the western support (which was often multiplatform already, even if PS2 often got priority) AND all of the Japanese support (which was often exclusive), and a very varied and broad first party catalgoue. All of that combined gave PS2 the largest and most diverse catalogue..I don't see those things changing much for PS3.

This was because of the userbase. Sony will absolutly NOT have the same advantage of 60+ million units more than MS.

For example.. do you think that this will still be valid if MS were the ones that have a 60+ million gap to Sony? Publishers go where there are potentially more money to make..

(edit)
If sales are more equal between PS3 and 360, shouldn´t the support be more equal as well?

 

[Panajev2001a]

Is this because 'we' are stupid? PlayStation launched in Japan first. PS2 launched in Japan first. PSP launched in Japan first. PSX launched in Japan first and possibly only.

I'm spotting some sort of pattern emerging that may only be clear to a top-notch analytical mind...

That'd be some "excruciating circumstances" for MS in Japan at that point .

J/K .

 

[Nick Laslett]

We should play a game called "Guess the number of threads about delays to PS3 launch date?" to be posted on GAF before Sony confirms the actual launch date.

Starting today.

A search on "Sony delay PS3" brings up 102 threads.

I'm going to be bold and estimate 1000 threads appear against the same search before Sony announce the official date.

(I know this estimate is a bit high :lol But that is what it feels like, every post is about this damn console. I hate it already and it isn't even out yet. 2 years of speculation, rumor and myth.)

Anyone else care to enter the competition?

The prize will be the $900 dollar version of the PS3 that Merril Lynch believes exists in piano black:lol


(I'm joking)

 

[gofreak]

I cannot entirely agree that business is as usual for publishers.

I'm just saying that's what's been reported.

I just think some are overestimating the change that's going to happen. Most western publishers were already multiplatform-centric this gen.

This was because of the userbase. Sony will absolutly NOT have the same advantage of 60+ million units more than MS.

They're going to have a huge advantage in Japan. I don't see much changing in terms of support from the larger Japanese publishers. The first party lineup will be broad and varied regardless. Which of the 3 factors I mentioned leaves the western publishers - which again, were already pretty orientated toward a multiplatform strategy (but, judging by reports, will still probably favour PS).

If anything Sony might be in a better position than last gen, particularly in terms of PC-centric western support. Xbox last gen enjoyed some default exclusive content, because of the technical position of the console, particularly among traditionally PC developers. That's clearly gone now. While iD only released Doom3 on Xbox and PC, its next game will be 360/PS3/PC. While Starbreeze put Chronicles of Riddick on Xbox and PC only, their next game will debut in the new OPM. Crytek's next engine will be specifically going out of its way to accomodate PS3. Heck, I remember there were doubts as to whether Epic would whole-heartedly support PS3 before last E3, because of how close Epic and MS appeared to be. A lot of games PS2 missed out on in this regard, PS3 won't. Many developers who were Playstation-shy are now warming to PS3.

 

[bumpkin]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

...wait, gotta catch my breath.

Okay, I'm good now.

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol