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[ioi]

Maybe I made a mistake by typing so much, since you seem to have missed my point. I think this phrase from your response sums it up: "....the data is so inaccurate in the first place and the aim of it is to show basic trends."

Since you admit that the data is of completely unknown accuracy and you're making assumptions with no more justification than saying they are "reasonable" (which is circular), why should anyone believe your conclusions? Your "proof" is completely unconvincing for those reasons.

Well maybe you're just trying too hard.

If I had scales that said an apple was 90g and another was 210kg then I think I can reasonably suggest that the second one is heavier, even if we have no idea of the accuracy of the scales. Even if was only to the nearest 20g it's gonna make no difference to the overall argument.

You're just being anal really. The numbers show discrepancies of 3-4m- 8m vs 4m for example. This is a hell of a discrepancy and you're gonna struggle to argue it by going down the road of "you don't know the accuracy of these numbers". It wouldn't matter if the 4m number was 30% out, it's still significantly less than the 8m number being claimed.

It is a very reasonable assumption that the margin of error is pretty consistent from 6 month period to 6 month period. We have to account for fluctuations of course, which is where the simplification is coming in, but why would the error be anything else? We are talking about random noise here. I have a number of reasons why I think this is true:

1) The only time the two lines above become close is when we know there are shortages. Bit of a coincidence if the numbers are being so wildly calculated.

2) If the average of ten numbers is 1.2, this can be represented as 1.2 with some random fluctuation imposed on top for each month. Some months it's higher, others it is lower. I guess you could argue that we don't know exactly how much higher or lower each month which is fair and this is the only bit that I could agree is uncertain, although common sense would suggest that there is no reason why it should fluctuate that much. NPD has actual sales for over 60% of the market and extrapolate up for the other 40%. Over a 6 month period it would be reasonable to assume that they have overestimated as much as underestimated with the means matched surely? It's a long enough sample time for the fluctuations have been damped down.

3) The pattern as can be clearly seen in the graph and explained a number of times by me. Let's think about the number we are looking at here. We KNOW that sales from Sep-Mar over the xmas period are around double that from Mar-Sep the quiet period. This goes totally against the pattern of shipments made from Sony who ship more in the summer / autumn to prepare for xmas. The only way the figures could be fudged so that shipments = sell through would be to assume that NPD is only reporting about 1/3 of sales during the summer and is about 2 times to large over xmas which would obviously be absurd !!!

A bit of common sense goes a long way here...

 

[Vennt]

Can you understand that any better?

Who said I didn't understand your "assumptions" and fuzzy math?

I just happen to agree that when you start with with faulty, incomplete data you get faulty, incomplete results that have no bearing on the real world.

Remind me not to cross any bridges you may yet design, I prefer the engineers I trust to understand the principle of "Garbage In, Garbage Out".

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

That chart makes sense over a logn period of time, but at any point could be off by quite a bit. That's where you assumptions come in, and why your assertion is off.

1) NPD data may well skew periodically itself, which might exaggerate or minimize the humps of your curve.

2) The numbers we have for Europe don't even have a guessed-at error factor.

3) The chart is, essentially, an analogy to describe what *might* be happening in Europe. While it's reasonable as a tool for illustrating the possibility, analogies are a logical fallacy for assertions.

4) Additionally, if we took that chart as gospel, it still doesn't account for a larger gap between shipped/sold for a smaller region.

As an overall description of the fluctuation between shipped/sold it's somewhat useful, but even then the scale is in some doubt. Does Sony count warantee replacements? Demo units? Promotional units? Is the timing of Sony numbers precise or consistent? Are those numbers taken from press releases or quarterly reports? When Sony announces a number, ir it beginning or end of month? What's the fuge factor? All of those variables would change the relation of the two curves, potentially quite a bit.

 

[Aruarian Reflection]

Or just read Jinx's informative analytical breakdown of ioi's approach. One of the things I've come to comprehend is never get into a science/math debate with -jinx- on GAF, you'ill get ass slapped again and again.

Indeed. I have a strong engineering/mathematics background and I would never face off against Jinx (unless he's just blatantly wrong, which I've never seen before). He's the man.

 

[ioi]

Brosh,

I honestly think your posts would go over better if you weren't so darn arrogant. I should know, it happens to me as well (too often lately, unfortunately)

I think you've made a pretty decent point, but it's only one possible explanation and it's not particulary proof and yet you seem to get upset when people tell you that you've got quite a few assumptions that aren't supportable by any facts.

You really need to allow for the fact that this is simply your opinion (which has some analysis behind it) and that others opinions will vary. Neither is right or wrong necessarily.

And, please don't tell me that you actually believe that there was ANY POINT in the past 5 years where you believe that 4.2M PS2's were sitting on store shelves in the US.

Listen, I'm not getting upset I just find it remarkable how people struggle to follow simple logic because it disagrees with what they want to hear!!

You can use as many statistical errors, uncertaintly arguments as you want, there is no way you can get that 4.2m discrepancy down any lower unless you are going to suggest that prior to that NPD were only tracking half of the real sales and then immediately afterwards they started tracking double, which would really be an absurd line to start taking.

Sony, in the past, have "shipped" (produced, stocked in a factory somewhere, wherehouses, shop shelves, whatever) 3-4m more than they could possibly have sold at that point. Whether it's 3m or 4m or 3,234,757, 3.45m, 4.1678m or whatever makes no difference. The point is that it's a significant amount, and while the exact accuracy of it can't be determined the fact that it exists and is significant cannot really be disputed as far as I'm concerned and the only attempt to argue it so far has missed the point I have just made.

 

[RuGalz]

So what is it exactly you are trying to show? Sony lies about their numbers? If you truely believe so, you can take this to court and sue them for money instead of wasting your time here. (Which btw you will just lose horribly.)

All you show really is just shipment number > sold number which is DUH! Or are you simply trying to say the DEMAND for Nintendo system is higher than that of Sony's system? Or are you saying Nintendo is better at estimate the demand of their system and only ship as many as needed?

A bit of common sense goes a long way here...

Yea it says these comparisons are so pointless and are only meant as flamebait.

 

[ioi]

That chart makes sense over a logn period of time, but at any point could be off by quite a bit. That's where you assumptions come in, and why your assertion is off.

1) NPD data may well skew periodically itself, which might exaggerate or minimize the humps of your curve.

2) The numbers we have for Europe don't even have a guessed-at error factor.

3) The chart is, essentially, an analogy to describe what *might* be happening in Europe. While it's reasonable as a tool for illustrating the possibility, analogies are a logical fallacy for assertions.

4) Additionally, if we took that chart as gospel, it still doesn't account for a larger gap between shipped/sold for a smaller region.

As an overall description of the fluctuation between shipped/sold it's somewhat useful, but even then the scale is in some doubt. Does Sony count warantee replacements? Demo units? Promotional units? Is the timing of Sony numbers precise or consistent? Are those numbers taken from press releases or quarterly reports? When Sony announces a number, ir it beginning or end of month? What's the fuge factor? All of those variables would change the relation of the two curves, potentially quite a bit.

1) Yes it may, but not by 200-300% as it would need to in order to match the shipped line.

2) This is about the US. You're right it has no direct bearing on Europe other than to present a point that is generally accepted by most, that Sony shipped numbers are much higher than sell through.

3) Again, all it aims to do is dispel the myth that Sony shipped numbers = sony sold through numbers.

As much as you could change the exact slopes of the curve, you would struggle to change the overall shape unless, as I said before, you are about to start telling me that NPD only covers about 30% of sales in the summer months and about 250% during winter months, and that Sony sell more units in summer than over xmas.

 

[Ghengis Cohen]

Holy shit. This is golden.

 

[ioi]

Or are you saying Nintendo is better at estimate the demand of their system and only ship as many as needed?

That's pretty much what I'm saying and it isn't meant as flamebait it was a fairly neutral, factually based mathematical discussion to start with that is aimed less at Sony telling lies or anything like that, and more an attempt to educate people as to how large the discrepancies can be between shipped and sold numbers (3-4m for example).

 

[Musashi Wins!]

Holy shit. This is golden.

by golden you mean sad and lonely, right?

 

[Ghengis Cohen]

by golden you mean sad and lonely, right?

Sounds about right.

 

[Fishie flop oog]

I am repeating myself but hey, here goes again:

The shipped numbers for Sony include units used in demo pods, giveaways, warrantee replacements etcetera.
Nintendo doesnt count those.

 

[kaching]

3) Again, all it aims to do is dispel the myth that Sony shipped numbers = sony sold through numbers.

Anybody who believes such a thing probably would find your entire analysis impenetrable.

 

[ioi]

Anybody who believes such a thing probably would find your entire analysis impenetrable.

I think they are :lol

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

3) Again, all it aims to do is dispel the myth that Sony shipped numbers = sony sold through numbers.

I have yet to hear anyone this. I have heard people state that the lag in sales in not likely as big as some suggest.

Also, one would only have to have as little as a month's discrepency in Sony's reporting to widen or narrow the bulges on that curve.

You suggest that 2.5 M on shelves is not realistic, but

a) Europe is a smaller market
b) Sony only ever got the channel that full (assuming your numbers are correct) in North America after the PS2 was an unqualified success.
c) We're in January, and you've extrapolated the curve flat between September and march, when it's far more likely to be flatter post-December. That alone introduces a likelyhood of error in your guess of 2.5 M on European shelves.

 

[Fishie flop oog]

I have yet to hear anyone this. I have heard people state that the lag in sales in not likely as big as some suggest.

Also, one would only have to have as little as a month's discrepency in Sony's reporting to widen or narrow the bulges on that curve.

You suggest that 2.5 M on shelves is not realistic, but

a) Europe is a smaller market
b) Sony only ever got the channel that full (assuming your numbers are correct) in North America after the PS2 was an unqualified success.
c) We're in January, and you've extrapolated the curve flat between September and march, when it's far more likely to be flatter post-December. That alone introduces a likelyhood of error in your guess of 2.5 M on European shelves.

Again I am repeating myself but: Europe is a bigger market.

 

[evil ways]

Man, it's in threads like these that I wish there was no Shawn Michaels ban.

 

[ioi]

I have yet to hear anyone this. I have heard people state that the lag in sales in not likely as big as some suggest.

Also, one would only have to have as little as a month's discrepency in Sony's reporting to widen or narrow the bulges on that curve.

You suggest that 2.5 M on shelves is not realistic, but

a) Europe is a smaller market
b) Sony only ever got the channel that full (assuming your numbers are correct) in North America after the PS2 was an unqualified success.
c) We're in January, and you've extrapolated the curve flat between September and march, when it's far more likely to be flatter post-December. That alone introduces a likelyhood of error in your guess of 2.5 M on European shelves.

I'm confused.

That graph is only upto Sep 04. It's not meant to directly translate over to Europe or anything like that, just to show an example of a situation in the past where shipped numbers have been significantly higher than sell through (18m vs 13.5m etc) so it's not all that crazy to think that the same thing is still happening. I'm confused why you're directly comparing this data to Europe.

 

[kaching]

I think they are :lol

Who's "they"? All this time put into the analysis and you can't even put names to the believers of the myth you felt needed to be debunked?

 

[DarienA]

I've seriously lost what the point of this thread was again... is it that Sony keeps more product "in channel" than others?

or

And we went through all this because you're upset about people saying the PSP is close the DS sales in certain territories?

 

[ioi]

Who's "they"? All this time put into the analysis and you can't even put names to the believers of the myth you felt needed to be debunked?

Why do people seem to think a lot of time has been spent on this? It takes about 5 minutes to open an excel spreadsheet, type some numbers and some calculations into it and copy them into a forum.

There are a lot of people that seem to have a hard time believing that Sony shipped numbers are not a good indicator of sell-through when there is a lot of evidence to support it.

I've seriously lost what the point of this thread was again... is it that Sony keeps more product "in channel" than others?

Yes, that's about it. Simple really. They adopt a strategy of producing ahead while others seem to produce much closer to what is actually being sold at that point and so it makes a direct comparison based on "shipped" numbers very difficult.

 

[kaching]

Why do people seem to think a lot of time has been spent on this?

There's the setup and then there's the ensuing debate. And whatever level of effort you put into this still seems overwrought when I doubt you can even name one member of the group of people you're supposedly trying to educate.

 

[AniHawk]

I wonder why Sony feels they need to lie to the public so much.

"Toy Story graphics"
"Dark Cloud is the Zelda killer"
"PSP sold 5 million more units than have actually been moved"

 

[ioi]

There's the setup and then there's the ensuing debate. And whatever level of effort you put into this still seems overwrought when I doubt you can even name one member of the group of people you're supposedly trying to educate.

Well now you are suggesting that I "waste" even more time trawling through threads to find quotes...

Well, like you say, NPD isn't 100 percent accurate. Perhaps Sony has more accurate numbers available.

It would put more PSPs on shelves and in transit than in consumer hands. Retailers would then have ordered and inordinate number of units of a system that wasn't/isn't showing the demand...

My point is just that we don't have that right now and shipped units should really be all we care about (that and Software sales)

The fact is. PSP and DS are selling like gangbusters and it's closer than any of the fanboys want to admit.

off the top of my head.

 

[evil ways]

Why do people seem to think a lot of time has been spent on this? It takes about 5 minutes to open an excel spreadsheet, type some numbers and some calculations into it and copy them into a forum.

There are a lot of people that seem to have a hard time believing that Sony shipped numbers are not a good indicator of sell-through when there is a lot of evidence to support it.

So in all truths you are admitting that this is nothing more than a Sony witch hunt? I believe so, in fact I have evidence of my own that proves just that

 

[Dilbert]

I've seriously lost what the point of this thread was again... is it that Sony keeps more product "in channel" than others?

The point was that math is rigorous and cannot be denied. Here is the equation (simplified for convenience):

(bullshit assumptions) + (bullshit analysis) = (bullshit conclusions)

The bullshit conclusions all fit into a warehouse in Europe, so no worries there.

QED

 

[Bigfoot]

1) Canada represents around 6% of the US market (supported by total revenue per year, snippets of sales we have etc) and that the pattern of the Canadian market is the same as the US with same games released, similar price cuts etc.

I think you should put Canada much higher than 6%. The population of Canada is 1/10 of the USA, and Canada is more advanced when you look at things per capita (# computers / person, higher broadband %, etc...). I would say 12% is a better number, or at least 10%.

 

[ioi]

The point was that math is rigorous and cannot be denied. Here is the equation (simplified for convenience):

(bullshit assumptions) + (bullshit analysis) = (bullshit conclusions)

The bullshit conclusions all fit into a warehouse in Europe, so no worries there.

QED

Nice to see you've avoided all the other points made since your last post

 

[Ghengis Cohen]

Games>Math

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I'm confused.

That graph is only upto Sep 04. It's not meant to directly translate over to Europe or anything like that, just to show an example of a situation in the past where shipped numbers have been significantly higher than sell through (18m vs 13.5m etc) so it's not all that crazy to think that the same thing is still happening. I'm confused why you're directly comparing this data to Europe.

Becuase, as far as I can tell, you're trying to support this statement:

Would 2.5m PSPs sitting in Europe as of the end of 2005 be that unrealistic?

My answer: yes. I don't believe Sony could maintain anything close to that level of float in a system's first year.

I see from later posts that you're aslto trying to undo other statements made by pro-Siny folks completely out of context. (That context: the suggestion that the PSP is flopping.)

 

[ioi]

I think you should put Canada much higher than 6%. The population of Canada is 1/10 of the USA, and Canada is more advanced when you look at things per capita (# computers / person, higher broadband %, etc...). I would say 12% is a better number, or at least 10%.

http://www.ga-forum.com/showthread.php?t=77895

Games>Math

You still here?

 

[Dilbert]

Nice to see you've avoided all the other points made since your last post

WHAT other points? I dressed down your "analysis," and now you've moved on to implying bias, which is somehow supposed to trump reality.

You're a lost cause -- at this point, I'm just hoping I can reclaim my time investment with some humor at your expense. I thought I summed up this thread quite nicely.

 

[kaching]

Well now you are suggesting that I "waste" even more time trawling through threads to find quotes...

I wasn't asking for quotes, just names, and this shouldn't be an after the fact exercise for you.

off the top of my head.

What in those quotes clearly indicates that any one of those three explicitly believes Sony shipped # = real sold thru #?

 

[mashoutposse]

ioi: All you have shown is that the only time 3-4 million units are sitting on store shelves are during the months (month?) when Sony prepares retail for the holiday season.

Your own calculations suggest that the difference between "shipped" and "sold" post-holiday season has never exceeded ~1-2 million units -- that strikes me as a strong defense of Sony's sales tracking considering the strong popularity of PS2.

It's not September, so I don't think you've met your goal for this thread.

 

[ioi]

WHAT other points? I dressed down your "analysis," and now you've moved on to implying bias, which is somehow supposed to trump reality.

You're a lost cause -- at this point, I'm just hoping I can reclaim my time investment with some humor at your expense. I thought I summed up this thread quite nicely.

Oh well.

The main point to which I was referring was the idea that in order to paint a different picture to the one that I have shown here, the fluctuations in "accuracy" of NPD numbers would have to go from 30% in the summer months to 250% in the winter months (which incidentally, would suggest more hardware being sold in May than December) and that a bit of simple logic shows that while the trends and numbers produced are not and were never meant to be accurate to 3 significant figures, they are accurate enough to show the trend and show that there have been times that sony have shipped far more than sold.

And you don't seem to have an answer to that.

 

[DarienA]

This is f'n ridiculous the reality is NO ONE believes that Sony shipped = Sony Sold....

Secondly who gives a f*ck how much is in channel? The only system that this even comes close to matter for is the PSP.... in terms of Sony's other leads it doesn't even f'n matter. And because this really only seems to matter in regards to the PSP I'm wondering what was the true motive behind creating this thread?

<puts on detectives' hat>

EDIT:
Hasn't it been discussed in threads way before this that Sony bulks up their shipments just before the holidays...to be able to meet holiday sales without the dreaded "sold out" occuring everywhere?

 

[ioi]

ioi: All you have shown is that the only time 3-4 million units are sitting on store shelves are during the months (month?) when Sony prepares retail for the holiday season.

Your own calculations suggest that the difference between "shipped" and "sold" post-holiday season has never exceeded ~1-2 million units -- that strikes me as a strong defense of Sony's sales tracking considering the strong popularity of PS2.

It's not September, so I don't think you've met your goal for this thread.

Fair point of course and it's not something that I've skipped over, but the 1-2m difference is all we really need in the PSPs case to explain what's going on, not 3-4m.

 

[Ceb]

Would 2.5m PSPs sitting in Europe as of the end of 2005 be that unrealistic?

Considering the Giga Pack is still sold out in places... yes?

 

[DarienA]

Fair point of course and it's not something that I've skipped over, but the 1-2m difference is all we really need in the PSPs case to explain what's going on, not 3-4m.

Oh so this thread really was about showing that the DS has a bigger lead...

Did we really need the big clusterf*ck for that?


EDIT: seriously ioi your first statement... who made the claim that Sony has sold close to 5 mil in Europe?

 

[Beowvlf]

I wonder why Sony feels they need to lie to the public so much.

"Toy Story graphics"
"Dark Cloud is the Zelda killer"
"PSP sold 5 million more units than have actually been moved"

:lol Pure instigation. Well played.

Anyways, this is pretty much one of the sorriest threads ever, and it's kind of telling when all the usual Nintendo fans are even staying far away. I think this is just pent up frustration at Sony using shipped numbers (as they should) whereas Nintendo is too stupid/stubborn to do so as well.

Sell-through numbers are of no use to anyone in any facet of any business, because at best they are and will always be an error-prone method of estimation. Retailer shipment numbers are what counts (considering revenue is still generated from retailer shipments) and is the best method of determining sales and trends.

*queue claims of Sony's shipment numbers not being shipped to retailers*

 

[ioi]

This is f'n ridiculous the reality is NO ONE believes that Sony shipped = Sony Sold....

Secondly who gives a f*ck how much is in channel? The only system that this even comes close to matter for is the PSP.... in terms of Sony's other leads it doesn't even f'n matter. And because this really only seems to matter in regards to the PSP I'm wondering what was the true motive behind creating this thread?

<puts on detectives' hat>

EDIT:
Hasn't it been discussed in threads way before this that Sony bulks up their shipments just before the holidays...to be able to meet holiday sales without the dreaded "sold out" occuring everywhere?

See this is my problem with GAF, everything has to have a motive or a side or something. Yeah I do prefer Nintendo to Sony and that's well known, and it may well already have been well known to everyone that sony bulk up shipments and so forth in that case why did this thread go past the first 2-3 posts?

 

[bishoptl]

I thought I summed up this thread quite nicely.

As did I. In summation:

In the amount of time it took you to do that you could have become a master of karate

Do you get paid for this?

And to think after that that work you went through people are still going to play videogames on Sony systems.

Listen, I'm not getting upset I just find it remarkable how people struggle to follow simple logic because it disagrees with what they want to hear!!

Holy shit. This is golden.

Man, it's in threads like these that I wish there was no Shawn Michaels ban.

I wonder why Sony feels they need to lie to the public so much.

and the topper

The point was that math is rigorous and cannot be denied. Here is the equation (simplified for convenience):

(bullshit assumptions) + (bullshit analysis) = (bullshit conclusions)

The bullshit conclusions all fit into a warehouse in Europe, so no worries there.

QED

Good times, fellas. Good times.

 

[mashoutposse]

Fair point of course and it's not something that I've skipped over, but the 1-2m difference is all we really need in the PSPs case to explain what's going on, not 3-4m.

Also consider the fact that in the early years of the console, your own model suggests that Sony keeps a much tighter ~500,000 unit supply in the channel.

 

[DarienA]

See this is my problem with GAF, everything has to have a motive or a side or something. Yeah I do prefer Nintendo to Sony and that's well known, and it may well already have been well known to everyone that sony bulk up shipments and so forth in that case why did this thread go past the first 2-3 posts?

Hell why did we even need the thread for that matter?

Anyway I'm curious to know who made the claim that u used to start this thread... that Sony has sold close to 5 mil PSP's in Europe?

 

[ioi]

Also consider the fact that in the early years of the console, your own model suggests that Sony keeps a much tighter ~500,000 unit supply in the channel.

Well it varies considerably. At the end of the day they make projections as to how many they are going to sell and ship that plus more to cover. Is it a crazy suggestion to think PSP sold less well than expected?

 

[DarienA]

Well it varies considerably. At the end of the day they make projections as to how many they are going to sell and ship that plus more to cover. Is it a crazy suggestion to think PSP sold less well than expected?

Considering that(I think) they made a 5 mil(shipped?) claim a bit back and everybody here was pretty much like.. yeah right? Not at all.

 

[mashoutposse]

Well it varies considerably. At the end of the day they make projections as to how many they are going to sell and ship that plus more to cover. Is it a crazy suggestion to think PSP sold less well than expected?

No, it certainly isn't. Of course, this thread is centered around gauging current conditions based on past performance, as per your original post.

 

[ioi]

No, it certainly isn't. Of course, this thread is centered around gauging current conditions based on past performance, as per your original post.

Well, the point was to show that large discrepancies can exist and have done in the past.

 

[DarienA]

Well, the point was to show that large discrepancies can exist and have done in the past.

ioi I'm entirely too lazy to look at your charts so excuse me if this question has been answered by those charts... when does Sony tend to overship and how long after that does it generally take sales to track much closer back to shipped #s again? In essence how long does it take sales to "catch back up" to the overshipments?

 

[mashoutposse]

Well, the point was to show that large discrepancies can exist and have done in the past.

...and your analysis shows conclusively that by far the largest discrepancies (the 3-4m difference to which you have made reference) occur at only one very specific time of the year -- just before the holidays.

Basically, you are welcome to apply your theory to Sony press releases dated between August and October. Otherwise, your own research proves that shipment/sales differences are relatively trivial at practically any other time of the year.