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[speculawyer]

reason behind that analysts prediction is that they have finished R&D phase and started selling systems and games... with 20+ first party games coming out, they expect huge revenue boost for Sony gaming division, as they should.

seeing that they expect to ship around 10 million in fiscal year, and how that is not going to be huge number of systems, it seems it is pretty realistic...

Dude . . . think things through before you drink the kool-aid. Are we really sure those WMDs are there? Is Jim Jones really a prophet?

[UPDATE] According to Bloomberg.com, Sony has denied the 10 million shipment forecast for the PS3. "The Nikkei numbers are just estimates and we can't comment on it," said spokeswoman Mami Imada.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=15787

Even the mad PR spinning Sony folks had the sense to distance themselves from those numbers.

 

[speculawyer]

It becomes clear that increase of Blue Ray marketshare is more important to Sony than domination in the console sector. Another reason for the Stock value increase.

Is that just a rationalization for a difficult situation? How much of a license fee does Sony make on Blu-Ray discs compared to PS3 discs? Obviously lower, but how much lower?

Many people here like to point out that Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray . . . Sony is just one company in a Blu-Ray consortium. If so, and since Blu-Ray discs are much cheaper than game discs (and will drop further in prices), Sony can't be making huge profits off Blu-Ray discs.

 

[JB1981]

What on earth do they intend to do with 10 million PS3s?

Cure cancer for Stanford.

 

[sonycowboy]

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=15787

Even the mad PR spinning Sony folks had the sense to distance themselves from those numbers.

The estimate is for the year ending 2008. If Sony's estimate turns out to be only 10M, then they've capitulated the market lead publically until 2010 at best if at all.

NOBODY is expecting them to announce they've shipped 10M as of March 31st, 2007. I can't believe you'd believe that for a second. They'll be lucky if they hit 5M, IMO.

 

[kaching]

Well compared to what? Call me crazy, but I thought that the main competition of a console are other consoles.

Yes, and this is why you guys get so vexed when they do other things besides play games. Messes up your neat and tidy sales comparisons. But don't worry, I've already conceded it won't sell well as a games console before you even challenged me on it.

 

[speculawyer]

Can someone explain the advantage in business terms of shipping so much more product than you are selling?

Ask Take-Two circa 2001.

 

[Elios83]

Holy crap . . there may be some good money to be made shorting SNE or buying puts. (The trouble with puts is getting the timing right.)



Seriously . . . are these people high? The amount of losses may be reduced as there are more game sales and they improve manufacturing efficiency, cut the bigger money-losing SKU, component costs drop, and they gimp down the PS3 by removing the EE.

But drive profits up? The PS3 is selling weak, PS3 game sales are weak, etc.

There are a lot of analysts that are clinging to the 'Sony is the videogame king' meme. The King has been dethroned. Get used to it.

This is all my honest opinion. I am not trolling. I do own a PS3. But from an objective biz standpoint, that article is out there, IMHO.

According to basic economics one way to improve profits is to reduce losses.If PS3 was a break even product right now Sony's overall profits in the FY ended in March would have been triple.
If you're talking about PS3 actively making profits for the company that will happen next year, with this year being about cutting all the losses on the product.

 

[speculawyer]

NOBODY is expecting them to announce they've shipped 10M as of March 31st, 2007. I can't believe you'd believe that for a second.

I didn't! Could my posts possibly be any more skeptical of the Sony situation w/o getting banned?

 

[Jamesfrom818]

Is that just a rationalization for a difficult situation? How much of a license fee does Sony make on Blu-Ray discs compared to PS3 discs? Obviously lower, but how much lower?

Many people here like to point out that Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray . . . Sony is just one company in a Blu-Ray consortium. If so, and since Blu-Ray discs are much cheaper than game discs (and will drop further in prices), Sony can't be making huge profits off Blu-Ray discs.

I'd believe that Sony cares more about BluRay than the PS3. The movie market is much larger than the video game market. DVD movies probably outsold the combined software of PS2, GC, and Xbox.

 

[iamblades]

Is that just a rationalization for a difficult situation? How much of a license fee does Sony make on Blu-Ray discs compared to PS3 discs? Obviously lower, but how much lower?

Many people here like to point out that Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray . . . Sony is just one company in a Blu-Ray consortium. If so, and since Blu-Ray discs are much cheaper than game discs (and will drop further in prices), Sony can't be making huge profits off Blu-Ray discs.

The money is not in the license fees for the individual disks, but rather the patent licensing fees for the players themselves.

For DVD these fees were around $20 a player. Multiply that by the hundreds of millions of players sold over the lifetime of the format, and you have hella cash, even if you do have to split it with Panasonic and a few other companies.

Sony owns many of the patents that go into bluray players. This in fact was the whole reason for the HD-DVD/bluray split. Sony and Panasonic wanted their patents in the HD-DVD spec, Toshiba told them to get lost. So they went and made their own format jammed full of any useless technology they could think of as long as they owned the patent to. Hence why Bluray players are so much more expensive than HD-DVD players.

It's a shame it seems to be working.

 

[teiresias]

The money is not in the license fees for the individual disks, but rather the patent licensing fees for the players themselves.

For DVD these fees were around $20 a player. Multiply that by the hundreds of millions of players sold over the lifetime of the format, and you have hella cash, even if you do have to split it with Panasonic and a few other companies.

Sony owns many of the patents that go into bluray players. This in fact was the whole reason for the HD-DVD/bluray split. Sony and Panasonic wanted their patents in the HD-DVD spec, Toshiba told them to get lost. So they went and made their own format jammed full of any useless technology they could think of as long as they owned the patent to. Hence why Bluray players are so much more expensive than HD-DVD players.

It's a shame it seems to be working.

The latter half of this is full of such bull that I can't even fit it out of my sphincter.

 

[Arkham]

NOBODY is expecting them to announce they've shipped 10M as of March 31st, 2007. I can't believe you'd believe that for a second. They'll be lucky if they hit 5M, IMO.

They did 4M by end of Feb, and I thought the shipping numbers being thrown around for worldwide in March was 1.6M world (1M to Europe). 5.6M on a 6M target isn't too bad if true.

I'm trying to find those numbers for March again. Searching... Yeah, 1M shipped to Europe, so that's 5M not including March's non-Europe numbers.

Might be close.

 

[Duke Togo]

5 year high am doomed?

 

[Frankfurter]

Yes, and this is why you guys get so vexed when they do other things besides play games. Messes up your neat and tidy sales comparisons. But don't worry, I've already conceded it won't sell well as a games console before you even challenged me on it.

What exactly is your point? Do you believe that Sony actually planned sth. like this? Invest billions into Cell, RSX and whatnot to let it play Blu Rays? This machine is designed to play games from the ground up. It can also play Blu Ray movies, but its primary goal is to play videogames.

 

[iamblades]

The latter half of this is full of such bull that I can't even fit it out of my sphincter.

You explain why they made their own format then?

Their patents on CD were running out and they went looking for a new source of free money. Simple as that.

Not saying what they did was bad or anything, but that was effectively how things went down(in a simplified, 'based on a true story' kinda way ).

Sony wanted free money, Toshiba didn't want to share their source of free money, so Sony made their own. I don't blame Sony for doing it, even though I prefer HD-DVD, you could just as easily blame Toshiba for not sharing.

All I know is either way it was stupid, greedy companies thinking of how to get their patents in the product so they can make money rather than thinking of how to make a good product.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Better get used to it. It'll sell well for a $600 device but won't dominate the console marketplace and there are more than a few here waiting for that kind of comeuppance with malicious glee.

Really? Malicious glee? Nah. Relishing the drama of the downfall of the single most popular console platform in the history of video games is certainly taking place. I certainly have to smile every single time Sony screws up and hits the PR's Bat-Signal. But it is the way in which they fail to execute, with such a sense of outward denial, that I take issue with as they crumble. No one wants to see someone just get totally punked in a big fight...well, I don't, despite my leanings and my long-held view on what seemed to be the most logical conclusion to this gen, anyway.

An N64-style marginalization is far more preferable to a Saturn-like one if it has to be so blatantly clear that one side is never going to gain the upper hand over the others. I was honestly hoping for a more SNES/Genesis-styled affair from Sony and MS for the first half of the gen. It seems, however, that Sony's role in my ideal will, instead, be taken by Ninty. And Ninty is lookin' to kick some serious ass.

Anyway, looks better and better, IMO, that Sony will do the first big drop in price this year since they're looking strong enough on their other fronts to offset losses in the game division. There's still hope for some bloody fightin' 'n shit.

 

[Arsenal]

But if Blu-Ray takes off, maybe they really won't even care.

Yup. They basically sacrificed a huge amount of marketshare in the console space to make Blu-Ray a success. If this tech wasn't in the PS3, it would be completely dead.

The HDTV boom is also a huge part of the company's turnaround too. They had been struggling a lot to be profitable in electronics and have finally accomplished that.

Spiderman 3 and the rest of their movie studio has also done decently - they didn't have a lot of big blockbusters over the last year, but they have consistently been able to put out solid movies. IMO these "exclusives" are also a big reason for Blu-ray being able to compete.

 

[Duke Togo]

Yup. They basically sacrificed a huge amount of marketshare in the console space to make Blu-Ray a success. If this tech wasn't in the PS3, it would be completely dead.

The HDTV boom is also a huge part of the company's turnaround too. They had been struggling a lot to be profitable in electronics and have finally accomplished that.

Spiderman 3 and the rest of their movie studio has also done decently - they didn't have a lot of big blockbusters over the last year, but they have consistently been able to put out solid movies. IMO these "exclusives" are also a big reason for Blu-ray being able to compete.

Does Casino Royale fall under Sony movie studio property? I can't tell what does and doesn't any more. I think that movie alone has sold a bazillion copies on blu ray.

 

[Forsete]

Sonys back..

Prepare for..

;P

 

[Zombie James]

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO--oh, whoops.

 

[J-Rzez]

The King has been dethroned. Get used to it.

This is all my honest opinion. I am not trolling. I do own a PS3.

Could my posts possibly be any more skeptical of the Sony situation w/o getting banned?

4/5mo = 5+years!!!!

 

[CurlySaysX]

Great news for Sony® and Consumers®.
Now all Sony® need is a proper portable MP3 player, and Sony® will be back! 80's/90's style.

 

[tribal24]

Does Casino Royale fall under Sony movie studio property? I can't tell what does and doesn't any more. I think that movie alone has sold a bazillion copies on blu ray.

yeah it is a sony movie studio property

 

[Oblivion]

4/5mo = 5+years!!!!

It's pretty much over in Japan. And although it's not doing as bad in the U.S., if the downward trend continues, well...

 

[GhaleonEB]

4/5mo = 5+years!!!!

Well, just look at the situation NOW. Selling in 3rd place in the US, a distant second in Japan and fell to 2nd in the UK after three weeks. Speculating about five years from now is one thing, but it sure isn't looking pretty for the near-term.

 

[sedaku]

There might be some big News behind the scene that accounted for the high level activity of Sony stocks the last couple of days.

Sony is a giant electronic corporation, PlayStation or Gaming is not their only product. The big news might be concerning Blu-ray (Universal go neutral) or LCD tv.
Hopefully the news will break soon.

 

[JB1981]

There might be some big News behind the scene that accounted for the high level activity of Sony stocks the last couple of days.

Sony is a giant electronic corporation, PlayStation or Gaming is not their only product. The big news might be concerning Blu-ray (Universal go neutral) or LCD tv.
Hopefully the news will break soon.

well, they have alluded to $299 blu-ray players being available this fall/xmas.

 

[Sypher]

Honestly, Sony can afford to take the backseat this gen, since Blu-ray will be making them a mint. This year is about getting the PS3 lean and next year is about expansion. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a $100 price drop this year once the Walmart Blu-ray player comes out.

 

[Ranger X]

"...so they can make money rather than thinking of how to make a good product.

Wow. You resumed capitalism. The word "product" there can be replaced by an infinity of other words in this extremely profit driven society.

 

[speculawyer]

well, they have alluded to $299 blu-ray players being available this fall/xmas.

New low-priced PS3 confirmed.

 

[speculawyer]

Honestly, Sony can afford to take the backseat this gen, since Blu-ray will be making them a mint.

I wish someone had some solid info on this. I wish we knew how much Sony makes on BR discs. But since I don't have much info, I won't take a position on that.

This year is about getting the PS3 lean and next year is about expansion.

I guess that is the theory . . . but there have not been very many console come-backs. Some people have pointed to the DS, but I don't think any Nintendo handheld can really have a 'comeback' . . . Nintendo has pwned the handheld sector since its inception.

Sony's best hope is for rapid HDTV adoption. They've got Blu-Ray movie capability, they've got great HD game capabilities, the Wii has no HD abilites at all, and Sony makes money selling HDTVs too.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

You explain why they made their own format then?

Their patents on CD were running out and they went looking for a new source of free money. Simple as that.

Not saying what they did was bad or anything, but that was effectively how things went down(in a simplified, 'based on a true story' kinda way ).

Sony wanted free money, Toshiba didn't want to share their source of free money, so Sony made their own. I don't blame Sony for doing it, even though I prefer HD-DVD, you could just as easily blame Toshiba for not sharing.

All I know is either way it was stupid, greedy companies thinking of how to get their patents in the product so they can make money rather than thinking of how to make a good product.

I think it ws more Sony's refusal to take their patent (for the physical layer) *out* at Toshiba's request and use Toshiba's-- and thus Toshiba decided they'd go do their own thing.

Sorta backwards from what you said.

 

[speculawyer]

4/5mo = 5+years!!!!

Well the next-gen consoles sales do show Sony to be at the back of the pack.

I don't see any huge come-back. Feel free to disagree.

I honestly do hope Sony can turn things around a bit . . . I dread the prospect of the MSBorg being the hi-def console overlord. I'd love to see a 33/33/33 split for maximum competition.

 

[J-Rzez]

Well, just look at the situation NOW. Selling in 3rd place in the US, a distant second in Japan and fell to 2nd in the UK after three weeks. Speculating about five years from now is one thing, but it sure isn't looking pretty for the near-term.

NOW =/= 5 years... Now =/= 2years... To a lot of people, the cost and must have software just isn't here yet... What's going to happen when costs come down, when software shows up, when the massive sony userbase (3x's as large as MS and Ninty combined last gen and growing) starts to shift to next gen (which isn't necessarily happening right away as high PS2 sales still shows)?

It's ignorant to factor Sony as dethroned right now is all I'm saying... It's not completely weird for hardware to sell sluggishly off the start, especially with a slight lack of software... Lots of event can happen... People may end up seeing the Wii as inferior especially when titles like Uncharted, ME, Rachet, H3, GTA4, MGS4, DMC4, FM2, GT5 hit... I've seen it happen already when Motorstorm and Excite Truck were played back to back... My friend told me he saw the same thing happen at best buy with the same said titles played side by side... Can Ninty come out with a constant flow of unique titles to implement their controls in proper fashion and not just seem like old games with a different controller...

Personally... IMHO, MS is the greater of the competition for Sony because their machine will stand up to time better... But, can MS counter when Sony's usual suspects start hitting the shelves? So far, they're doing a wonderful job (games wise), but there's nothing much to compare it to other than what they did last gen (which this gen they're doing way better)...

This is where the real battle is going to come down to, Sony and MS, especially after a year or two where I honestly think the Wii will be in the same position as the GC a little while after it's launch... If Sony's in the same position 2 years from now, yeah, start talking... Right now it's too early to say anything...

This is just IMHO...

 

[Link316]

There might be some big News behind the scene that accounted for the high level activity of Sony stocks the last couple of days.

it broke the 50 day moving average, stock is breaking out now, get on board before its too late :O

 

[GhaleonEB]

NOW =/= 5 years... Now =/= 2years... To a lot of people, the cost and must have software just isn't here yet... What's going to happen when costs come down, when software shows up, when the massive sony userbase (3x's as large as MS and Ninty combined last gen and growing) starts to shift to next gen (which isn't necessarily happening right away as high PS2 sales still shows)?

It's ignorant to factor Sony as dethroned right now is all I'm saying... It's not completely weird for hardware to sell sluggishly off the start, especially with a slight lack of software... Lots of event can happen... People may end up seeing the Wii as inferior especially when titles like Uncharted, ME, Rachet, H3, GTA4, MGS4, DMC4, FM2, GT5 hit... I've seen it happen already when Motorstorm and Excite Truck were played back to back... My friend told me he saw the same thing happen at best buy with the same said titles played side by side... Can Ninty come out with a constant flow of unique titles to implement their controls in proper fashion and not just seem like old games with a different controller...

Personally... IMHO, MS is the greater of the competition for Sony because their machine will stand up to time better... But, can MS counter when Sony's usual suspects start hitting the shelves? So far, they're doing a wonderful job (games wise), but there's nothing much to compare it to other than what they did last gen (which this gen they're doing way better)...

This is where the real battle is going to come down to, Sony and MS, especially after a year or two where I honestly think the Wii will be in the same position as the GC a little while after it's launch... If Sony's in the same position 2 years from now, yeah, start talking... Right now it's too early to say anything...

This is just IMHO...

I agree that things can change. My point was, we can argue what could happen in the future all day, but there's so many variables there is just no way to know what to expect.

My post was just looking at the situation right now - and Sony is losing, as of right now. Dethroned, falling behind, whatever it should be called. Could that change? Absolutely. But they are facing an uphill fight right now. February saw sales of the PS3 lower than the PS2 has seen in its entire lifetime. March will probably notch up another one of those.

 

[DarienA]

I haven't been following the later part of this thread very closely... is Sony still doomed?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

The SNES was a comeback machine in the US.

 

[Oblivion]

NOW =/= 5 years... Now =/= 2years... To a lot of people, the cost and must have software just isn't here yet... What's going to happen when costs come down, when software shows up, when the massive sony userbase (3x's as large as MS and Ninty combined last gen and growing) starts to shift to next gen (which isn't necessarily happening right away as high PS2 sales still shows)?

As Nintendo learned, previous userbase doesn't matter for squat when going into another generation.

It's ignorant to factor Sony as dethroned right now is all I'm saying... It's not completely weird for hardware to sell sluggishly off the start, especially with a slight lack of software... Lots of event can happen... People may end up seeing the Wii as inferior especially when titles like Uncharted, ME, Rachet, H3, GTA4, MGS4, DMC4, FM2, GT5 hit...

For the umpteenth time, this 'wait for X' mentality only works if you didn't have competitors continuously increasing their userbases, and if your own hardware sales aren't too bad (which unfortunately for Sony, isn't the case). Publishers aren't going to wait for MGS4 to 'save' the PS3.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

$400 PS3 and GTA IV for Xmas 2007 is an almost certainty.

:lol :lol

 

[Oblivion]

The SNES was a comeback machine in the US.

SNES also completely dominated Japan.

 

[Chiggs]

There might be some big News behind the scene that accounted for the high level activity of Sony stocks the last couple of days.

Sony is a giant electronic corporation, PlayStation or Gaming is not their only product. The big news might be concerning Blu-ray (Universal go neutral) or LCD tv.
Hopefully the news will break soon.

Perhaps this?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...04/12/AR2007041200480.html?nav=rss_technology

 

[speculawyer]

I haven't been following the later part of this thread very closely... is Sony still doomed?

We don't tell you what to think. We discuss things, express our own opinions, and let you draw your own conclusions.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

The SNES was a comeback machine in the US.

It also outsold the Genesis' NA LTD sales within it's first three or so months on the market when it hit NA in '91 and outpaced it for some time afterward, IIRC.

 

[mabuza]

I haven't been following the later part of this thread very closely... is Sony still doomed?

come back in 4/5mo = 5+years!!!!

 

[Safe Bet]

Sony's still doomed right?

*reads thread*

Yup...

*leaves thread*

 

[Walter Matthau]

I've never seen so many people in denial (on both sides of the fence)

 

[Link316]

Well the next-gen consoles sales do show Sony to be at the back of the pack.

the slow adoption of the PS3 is to be expected because one thing alot of people have overlooked is that the PS2 is still getting strong support, there's not as much of a reason for PS2 owners to buy a new system yet, the Xbox & GC OTOH were practically dead since 2005 so those owners basically have no choice but to buy new systems, hence the faster adoption rates, moving to the front of the pack in the end is what matters, lots of people keep trying to call this race over now while their system's in the lead but it takes years to decide a winner, not a few months :lol

 

[speculawyer]

It also outsold the Genesis' NA LTD sales within it's first three or so months on the market when it hit NA in '91 and outpaced it for some time afterward, IIRC.

Well that is not a 'come-back' is it? That is great performance out of the gate.

 

[kaching]

What exactly is your point? Do you believe that Sony actually planned sth. like this? Invest billions into Cell, RSX and whatnot to let it play Blu Rays? This machine is designed to play games from the ground up. It can also play Blu Ray movies, but its primary goal is to play videogames.

It's a content gateway, with games and Blu-Ray movies leading the charge. There'll be more to come that will stray more and more into "non-game" territory - Singstar music video downloads, Home objects, probably their own video download service, etc. I don't know exactly how Sony plans to play this out, but neither am I going to assume they're so incompetent that they wouldn't have realized that a $600 device wouldn't sell as quickly to a market grown accustomed to a $300 max. starting price for new hardware. Ultimately, it may turn out they miscalculated but not inasmuch as they'll really be caught unawares that the PS3 won't sell as well as the PS2 did.

Really? Malicious glee? Nah.

For some, absolutely no doubt. Not directed at you.