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[xaosslug]

I haven't been following the later part of this thread very closely... is Sony still doomed?

that's the gist of it. :lol

 

[Y2Kev]

WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDREN

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Well that is not a 'come-back' is it? That is great performance out of the gate.

Well, Genny started their come back with the help of EA Sports, Sonic's increasing popularity, and MK blood and held ahead of Ninty for a couple of years there until Sega, of course, dropped the ball... A nice back 'n forth is what it was. Something it still might be this gen...

 

[Forsete]

Oh oh.. I know of one come-back system! The PSP!

Each month (at least) it is proclaimed dead, according to GAF.. Each time the system is resurrected when a good game hits. Now thars a come-back system!

Dontyathink?

 

[Safe Bet]

I've never seen so many people in denial (on both sides of the fence)

Most of us Sony fans are not in denial. We've just tucked our heads into our asses and started praying.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

My SNES comment was not a prediction of PS3 sales, just a refutation to "console comebacks don't happen."

 

[MightyHedgehog]

My SNES comment was not a prediction of PS3 sales, just a refutation to "console comebacks don't happen."

Of course, they certainly can. One of the factors common in all comebacks, though...is the parity of price between the two that switch. And that is one of the most important elements that keeps Sony from seeing any sort of meaningful rally over its competition for, at least, another year and a half. Snowball effects 'n all, it looks less likely to me to happen...though anything can happen.

 

[spwolf]

Of course, they certainly can. One of the factors common in all comebacks, though...is the parity of price between the two that switch. And that is one of the most important elements that keeps Sony from seeing any sort of meaningful rally over its competition for, at least, another year and a half. Snowball effects 'n all, it looks less likely to me to happen...though anything can happen.

which is why PS2 sells like crazy :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Oh oh.. I know of one come-back system! The PSP!

Each month (at least) it is proclaimed dead, according to GAF.. Each time the system is resurrected when a good game hits. Now thars a come-back system!

Dontyathink?

Sales-wise? No. But if we're saying a comeback system is one that still gets totally awesome games here and there and is worth owning by any gamer than can afford it, then sure. I expect the PS3 will be all of that and more.

 

[J-Rzez]

As Nintendo learned, previous userbase doesn't matter for squat when going into another generation.

For the umpteenth time, this 'wait for X' mentality only works if you didn't have competitors continuously increasing their userbases, and if your own hardware sales aren't too bad (which unfortunately for Sony, isn't the case). Publishers aren't going to wait for MGS4 to 'save' the PS3.

Nintendo was a different case all together than what Sony is in... Ninty screwed over devs by not giving them what they wanted (larger capacity media), and by losing many levels of 3rd party support... This isn't the case that Sony is in... Sony priced themselves high, and have not given enough software to warrant the change for people yet... Their last gen machine is selling really well still at this point of time clearly indicating that all people are not ready enough yet to jump over into this gen as well... Price will come down, the userbases favorite games will show up, it's all a matter of time... And, Sony doesn't seem to be losing all that 3rd party support either... They may have lost exclusives for the moment, but even Phil Harrison said they can't support a title alone yet... Couple this that they haven't lost much support along with them adding to their 1st party teams, how can you compare it to what happened to Ninty back in the day?

I was once one of those Ninty fan userbases members... Until Ninty royally screwed me over where it counted, with it's games... thus I gave up on them, since they were walking the path that Sega was for me as well... And I haven't looked back at Ninty yet, because even still they haven't shown me they've changed their ways... Ninty's crying that they should be getting AAA 1st tier dev teams to make the games, when they should be giving them enough reason to do it... You don't think Devs are still skeptical how the Wii will end up? This shows that well enough I'd say...

I understand some people are furious that Sony walked into the console gaming segment and utterly destroyed their favorite companies, but the lust of Sony blood is rediculous... Yeah, the competitors userbase is expanding, but what's to stop Sony from selling 2x's the amount the competition is selling? You don't know what's in store... All it is is just trash talking right now from people that had their Company of choice utterly urinated on in the prior gens by Sony, so nows their day in the sun, even though it maybe short lived...

If Sony's in the same state they are in now in 2-3 years, I can admit they've mucked up... but after 5 months is absurd... Especially when their staples aren't even released yet at this time...

 

[MightyHedgehog]

which is why PS2 sells like crazy :lol

Hmmm...yeah...I guess...but this year is the last really active year for PS2 software. Those folks are likely to jump to Wii and X360 because of the price and overall strength and breadth of their software libraries, IMO. Some will go to PS3.

 

[1-D_FTW]

Does Casino Royale fall under Sony movie studio property? I can't tell what does and doesn't any more. I think that movie alone has sold a bazillion copies on blu ray.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/564

For the week ending March 18, it sold 28,000 copies. Enough to garner top spot for the week. Course, it's not too difficult to grab number one for the week when the second best title did 3,057. And spots 8-10 couldn't even crack 900 copies sold.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Nintendo was a different case all together than what Sony is in... Ninty screwed over devs by not giving them what they wanted (larger capacity media), and by losing many levels of 3rd party support... This isn't the case that Sony is in... Sony priced themselves high, and have not given enough software to warrant the change for people yet... Their last gen machine is selling really well still at this point of time clearly indicating that all people are not ready enough yet to jump over into this gen as well... Price will come down, the userbases favorite games will show up, it's all a matter of time... And, Sony doesn't seem to be losing all that 3rd party support either... They may have lost exclusives for the moment, but even Phil Harrison said they can't support a title alone yet... Couple this that they haven't lost much support along with them adding to their 1st party teams, how can you compare it to what happened to Ninty back in the day?

I was once one of those Ninty fan userbases members... Until Ninty royally screwed me over where it counted, with it's games... thus I gave up on them, since they were walking the path that Sega was for me as well... And I haven't looked back at Ninty yet, because even still they haven't shown me they've changed their ways... Ninty's crying that they should be getting AAA 1st tier dev teams to make the games, when they should be giving them enough reason to do it... You don't think Devs are still skeptical how the Wii will end up? This shows that well enough I'd say...

I understand some people are furious that Sony walked into the console gaming segment and utterly destroyed their favorite companies, but the lust of Sony blood is rediculous... Yeah, the competitors userbase is expanding, but what's to stop Sony from selling 2x's the amount the competition is selling? You don't know what's in store... All it is is just trash talking right now from people that had their Company of choice utterly urinated on in the prior gens by Sony, so nows their day in the sun, even though it maybe short lived...

If Sony's in the same state they are in now in 2-3 years, I can admit they've mucked up... but after 5 months is absurd... Especially when their staples aren't even released yet at this time...

You seriously think it would take two or three years of numbers like these to say Sony's 'mucked up'? **** man...five months *might* be premature (though few of you would give the competition that kind of benefit of the doubt), but two or three years?

If things continue at this rate (and they probably will), the so-called "Next-Gen War" will be over by the end of this year. Scout's honour.

 

[speculawyer]

the slow adoption of the PS3 is to be expected because one thing alot of people have overlooked is that the PS2 is still getting strong support, there's not as much of a reason for PS2 owners to buy a new system yet, the Xbox & GC OTOH were practically dead since 2005 so those owners basically have no choice but to buy new systems, hence the faster adoption rates,

That's a theory, but that theory seems to imply a lot of blind brand loyalty. I never understand this blind-brand-loyalty that so many people seem to think is very strong. Why do you think PS2 owners will automatically buy PS3, xbox owners will automatically buy xbox 360, and GC owners will automatically buy Wii?

There is definitely some brand loyalty . . . but I don't think as much as many people seem to beleive. Atari, Nintendo, Sega, Sony, and even Microsoft can all have said to hold the lead position in one way or another. If there were total brand loyalty, one manufacture would have held onto the lead the whole time. If there were no brand loyalty at all, the lead would bounce around . . . it sure seems to be closer to the latter.

Do you buy exclusively from one manufacturer?

 

[speculawyer]

For the week ending March 18, it sold 28,000 copies. Enough to garner top spot for the week. Course, it's not too difficult to grab number one for the week when the second best title did 3,057. And spots 8-10 couldn't even crack 900 copies sold.

:lol

I think Blu-Ray will win the hi-def disc format war . . . but Blu-Ray sales are not going to grow nearly as rapidly as DVD sales. It has taken many years for HDTV sales to finally start taking off. And even now, the majority of those HDTV owners are not even watching HD content . . . they either don't know any better or don't care.

BTW, I wanted to pick up Casino Royale last week and my local Best Buy & Circuit City were both sold out.

 

[Duke Togo]

:lol

I think Blu-Ray will win the hi-def disc format war . . . but Blu-Ray sales are not going to grow nearly as rapidly as DVD sales. It has taken many years for HDTV sales to finally start taking off. And even now, the majority of those HDTV owners are not even watching HD content . . . they either don't know any better or don't care.

BTW, I wanted to pick up Casino Royale last week and my local Best Buy & Circuit City were both sold out.

I agree, there seem to be more barriers for the average consumer to overcome to be "fully HD". Like you said, while HD tv sales are up, most people just go home and hook them up to a non-hd source. I don't think we'll see much in the way of huge blu ray sales until the players drop to a price less than 599 (haha) dollars.

May I now pose a question? I don't live in the US, but I've heard that all television signals are supposed to be broadcast in high def by a certain date, is that still going to happen?

 

[Deku]

:lol

I think Blu-Ray will win the hi-def disc format war . . . but Blu-Ray sales are not going to grow nearly as rapidly as DVD sales. It has taken many years for HDTV sales to finally start taking off. And even now, the majority of those HDTV owners are not even watching HD content . . . they either don't know any better or don't care.

BTW, I wanted to pick up Casino Royale last week and my local Best Buy & Circuit City were both sold out.

I've suggested the hi-def format war might be an expensive sideshow much like how Laserdiscs were sidelined for most of its history by the VHS due to the expense of the machines that run it, and the lack of perceived value.

Blu-ray/HD DVD suffer from the same problem of being perceived as lacking value, while the machines certainly aren't going to remain expensive forever (perhaps its only advantage over the Laserdisc), it has the added disadvantage of a format war which has no end in sight, and every month Microsoft and Co. keep the format war going is another month consumers think the fight won't be settled soon deterring sales and conversion rates. Sony doesn't have years to develop this for the PS3. As a console the PS3 has a finite window to succeed and dominate or it falters in mediocrity.

In fact I have to wonder if MS' entire strategy here is to spark a format war they don't intend to win, but to keep consumers confused and deny Sony an early victory. By tying the PS3's lot with Blu-Ray, Sony may have inadvertently given MS added leverage. MS now has an incentive to keep the format war brewing. Doing so denies the PS3 the network effects of being able to play an unchallenged successful movie format.

 

[speculawyer]

Sony priced themselves high, and have not given enough software to warrant the change for people yet... Their last gen machine is selling really well still at this point of time clearly indicating that all people are not ready enough yet to jump over into this gen as well... Price will come down, the userbases favorite games will show up, it's all a matter of time...

I completely agree with all of that . . . however, you are omitting a HUGE factor. Even though the PS3 will drop in price and it's game library will continue to expand, unless there are drastic changes, the xbox 360 & Wii prices will always be lower than the PS3 and the xbox 360 game library will always be bigger than the PS3 game library. That is Sony's biggest problem.

And, Sony doesn't seem to be losing all that 3rd party support either... They may have lost exclusives for the moment, but even Phil Harrison said they can't support a title alone yet... Couple this that they haven't lost much support along with them adding to their 1st party teams,

That is some serious denial, IMHO.

I was once one of those Ninty fan userbases members... Until Ninty royally screwed me over where it counted, with it's games... thus I gave up on them, since they were walking the path that Sega was for me as well... And I haven't looked back at Ninty yet, because even still they haven't shown me they've changed their ways... Ninty's crying that they should be getting AAA 1st tier dev teams to make the games, when they should be giving them enough reason to do it... You don't think Devs are still skeptical how the Wii will end up?

I have as much loyalty to a particular console manufacturer as the console manufacturers have loyalty to me: Zero. They exist only to make money. I am a game consumer only to have fun. And the meeting of the two is the marketplace.

I understand some people are furious that Sony walked into the console gaming segment and utterly destroyed their favorite companies, but the lust of Sony blood is rediculous...

Is it any more/less ridiculous than your dislike of Nintendo?

Yeah, the competitors userbase is expanding, but what's to stop Sony from selling 2x's the amount the competition is selling?

Refer to my first paragraph.

 

[Big-E]

I still don't understand that 28,000 number. Most places had it sold out and they supposedly shipped 100k units. Are there 70k units on store shelves?

 

[teepo]

I've suggested the hi-def format war might be an expensive sideshow much like how Laserdiscs were sidelined for most of its history by the VHS due to the expense of the machines that run it, and the lack of perceived value.

laserdiscs were never meant to take over anything.

 

[speculawyer]

I've suggested the hi-def format war might be an expensive sideshow much like how Laserdiscs were sidelined for most of its history by the VHS due to the expense of the machines that run it, and the lack of perceived value.

It will be that way for a few more years, but ultimately I do think Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD) will eventually replace DVD. That may take many many years though.

In fact I have to wonder if MS' entire strategy here is to spark a format war they don't intend to win, but to keep consumers confused and deny Sony an early victory. By tying the PS3's lot with Blu-Ray, Sony may have inadvertently given MS added leverage. MS now has an incentive to keep the format war brewing. Doing so denies the PS3 the network effects of being able to play an unchallenged successful movie format.

I think that is a very astute observation. And the top-levels of MSFT probably now know that HD-DVD is gonna lose . . . but they won't admit it publically since it is in their interest to keep the issue muddled. Kinda sleazy . . . but all's fair in love & console wars. :lol

Sony is stuck with Blu-Ray now . . . and by dropping the 20Gb SKU, they destroyed on of their best value propositions, IMHO . . . I used to be able to say "Hey, the PS3 gives you great next-gen hi-def gaming like the xbox 360, and for only $100 more, you also get the ability to display Blu-Ray movies!" That statement is now dead.

 

[Sypher]

I think you're all forgetting a couple things


The PS2 has yet to hit $100 and PSP will by 2008 be $130-$150 or a new PSP will be out.

Once that happens not only can Sony look at the PS3 and see some room for price cuts, but by that time the PS2 would have reached >150 million world wide. I think it fair to say that at least ~<25% of the PS2 users will lead into the PS3, with about 37.5 million users by 2010.

Add to the fact that THIS YEAR Blu-ray players will be below $500 and accessible to the mass market and Q1 2008 they switch to 65nm Cell in PS3, IBM servers and other uses(medical imaging) and its not crazy to think that by Christmas '08 we could see a $400-$450 PS3. And if their smart roll out a new model, the A/V centric one Kutaragi was talking about, and turn the current 60GB SKU to a "Premium".

 

[speculawyer]

I still don't understand that 28,000 number. Most places had it sold out and they supposedly shipped 100k units. Are there 70k units on store shelves?

That 28K was only for one particular week he said. Perhaps the rest sold in other weeks or are on store shelves.

 

[Oblivion]

Nintendo was a different case all together than what Sony is in... Ninty screwed over devs by not giving them what they wanted (larger capacity media), and by losing many levels of 3rd party support... This isn't the case that Sony is in... Sony priced themselves high, and have not given enough software to warrant the change for people yet... Their last gen machine is selling really well still at this point of time clearly indicating that all people are not ready enough yet to jump over into this gen as well... Price will come down, the userbases favorite games will show up, it's all a matter of time... And, Sony doesn't seem to be losing all that 3rd party support either... They may have lost exclusives for the moment, but even Phil Harrison said they can't support a title alone yet... Couple this that they haven't lost much support along with them adding to their 1st party teams, how can you compare it to what happened to Ninty back in the day?

I was once one of those Ninty fan userbases members... Until Ninty royally screwed me over where it counted, with it's games... thus I gave up on them, since they were walking the path that Sega was for me as well... And I haven't looked back at Ninty yet, because even still they haven't shown me they've changed their ways... Ninty's crying that they should be getting AAA 1st tier dev teams to make the games, when they should be giving them enough reason to do it... You don't think Devs are still skeptical how the Wii will end up? This shows that well enough I'd say...

I understand some people are furious that Sony walked into the console gaming segment and utterly destroyed their favorite companies, but the lust of Sony blood is rediculous... Yeah, the competitors userbase is expanding, but what's to stop Sony from selling 2x's the amount the competition is selling? You don't know what's in store... All it is is just trash talking right now from people that had their Company of choice utterly urinated on in the prior gens by Sony, so nows their day in the sun, even though it maybe short lived...

If Sony's in the same state they are in now in 2-3 years, I can admit they've mucked up... but after 5 months is absurd... Especially when their staples aren't even released yet at this time...

I don't have much time on my break, so let me just say:

1. You haven't addressed my original problem of Publishers not wanting to wait for this miraculous moment where the tide turns in favor of Sony.
2. You're putting way too much faith in Sony's first party titles. They're great games, but not many of them are system sellers. I really doubt they could carry the system by themselves if they had to.
3. The gap is only widening, especially in Japan.

 

[speculawyer]

and its not crazy to think that by Christmas '08 we could see a $400-$450 PS3.

That is certainly possible . . . maybe even likely. But the sad thing is that means it will be a year and a half before Sony is finally as cheap as the xbox 360 pro is now. :-(

And if their smart roll out a new model, the A/V centric one Kutaragi was talking about, and turn the current 60GB SKU to a "Premium".

That PSX was sure a winner.

 

[ollin]

I still don't understand that 28,000 number. Most places had it sold out and they supposedly shipped 100k units. Are there 70k units on store shelves?

Yeah I'm pretty sure Casino Royale BD was the first ever HD title to go over the 100,000 mark.

 

[speculawyer]

2. You're putting way too much faith in Sony's first party titles. They're great games, but not many of them are system sellers. I really doubt they could carry the system by themselves if they had to.

I don't think ANY title can sell a $599 system. (OK, Maybe if the title gave you a blow job. )

3. The gap is only widening, especially in Japan.

I can never get a good handle on the Japanese market. It appears that console gaming is nearly dead in Japan and the Nintendo DS rules all. And in the most recent week, there were twice as many PS2 titles (6) in the top 30 than Wii(2), PS3(1), and xbox 360 (0) titles combined. WTF? Old-gen wins again . . . is Japan in a depression or something!??

But yeah, the Wii is totally b!tch-slapping the PS3 in Japan. Big time. However, despite its terrible performance, I think the PS3 is (barely) ahead of the xbox 360.

 

[Sypher]

That is certainly possible . . . maybe even likely. But the sad thing is that means it will be a year and a half before Sony is finally as cheap as the xbox 360 pro is now. :-(

Well, yeah. But we still have the Elite model to soften the sticker shock.

 

[Deku]

I can never get a good handle on the Japanese market. It appears that console gaming is nearly dead in Japan and the Nintendo DS rules all. And in the most recent week, there were twice as many PS2 titles (6) in the top 30 than Wii(2), PS3(1), and xbox 360 (0) titles combined. WTF? Old-gen wins again . . . is Japan in a depression or something!??

But yeah, the Wii is totally b!tch-slapping the PS3 in Japan. Big time. However, despite its terrible performance, I think the PS3 is (barely) ahead of the xbox 360.

The Japanese industry was in pretty terrible shape post PS2 launch. We're used to six digit sales figures on Media Create threads since the DS was released but prior to that, it was not uncommon for a top 10 selling (for the week) title to pull in 10k or sometimes even less.

There's been a significant shift in gaming habits in Japan but I'm hesitant to call console gaming dead. I don't think saying the PS style console gaming is 'boring' as some has suggested also capture the issue. What's happening there is a more pronounced effect of what's happening worldwide.

I think the hardcore and the males who identify most of PS style games are exiting the industry due to life choices and age and there aren't enough young males coming up to replace them and the only way to keep growth from stagnating there is to reach out to gamers and draw back former gamers by offering quick gaming sessions they can play on their way to work, school and time with family.

The hardcore style games will always have a place there and I'm not yet convinced Wii is going to be a long term success until I see what else Nintendo and Co. has planned for this year. But Wii and DS certainly has touched something in the Japanese market. They reach out to new market segments that allow them to succeed. Take them out and I doubt PSP/PS3 sales would be much affected. In that scenario, we'd be wondering if the industry has crashed in Japan.

 

[Joe211]

Is that just a rationalization for a difficult situation? How much of a license fee does Sony make on Blu-Ray discs compared to PS3 discs? Obviously lower, but how much lower?

Many people here like to point out that Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray . . . Sony is just one company in a Blu-Ray consortium. If so, and since Blu-Ray discs are much cheaper than game discs (and will drop further in prices), Sony can't be making huge profits off Blu-Ray discs.

yeah "if"
the 360 isn't the new ps2 I think Nintendo will be the new leader and MS will be third cause they don't do well in Japan and Europe

 

[Deleted member 1235]

I'll give it to sony, their Bravia TVs are really nice.

 

[Duke Togo]

The Japanese industry was in pretty terrible shape post PS2 launch. We're used to six digit sales figures on Media Create threads since the DS was released but prior to that, it was not uncommon for a top 10 selling (for the week) title to pull in 10k or sometimes even less.

There's been a significant shift in gaming habits in Japan but I'm hesitant to call console gaming dead. I don't think saying the PS style console gaming is 'boring' as some has suggested also capture the issue. What's happening there is a more pronounced effect of what's happening worldwide.

I think the hardcore and the males who identify most of PS style games are exiting the industry due to life choices and age and there aren't enough young males coming up to replace them and the only way to keep growth from stagnating there is to reach out to gamers and draw back former gamers by offering quick gaming sessions they can play on their way to work, school and time with family.

The hardcore style games will always have a place there and I'm not yet convinced Wii is going to be a long term success until I see what else Nintendo and Co. has planned for this year. But Wii and DS certainly has touched something in the Japanese market. They reach out to new market segments that allow them to succeed. Take them out and I doubt PSP/PS3 sales would be much affected. In that scenario, we'd be wondering if the industry has crashed in Japan.

A very interesting theory. Seems plausible.

 

[J-Rzez]

I don't have much time on my break, so let me just say:

1. You haven't addressed my original problem of Publishers not wanting to wait for this miraculous moment where the tide turns in favor of Sony.
2. You're putting way too much faith in Sony's first party titles. They're great games, but not many of them are system sellers. I really doubt they could carry the system by themselves if they had to.
3. The gap is only widening, especially in Japan.

I think I did address all this... naturally right now 3rd parties are going multi because they need to make money as well... One platform can't support them right now, unless they get backed financially from MS or Sony... Everything is basically multi for now because of this... Plus, the other devs are catching on to EA and Ubi making a lot of money in the past by going this route as well... Until one of the consoles have a large enough base to support a title on it's own, you won't see exclusives without padding their wallets...

Sony's first parties sell pretty well I think... If you look at their last gen sales, outside some EA junk, the GTA's, and FF's, you have the GT's, Socoms, Rachets, Jaks, KZ... Their 1st party is well enough... and once again, it's not like 3rd parties are abandoning the PS3...

Yes, the JP situation is weird like others have pointed out as well... but seriously, what do you expect until the hot software is there? Look at the lastest MC tables, Sony PSP and PS2 software all up in the business... It's a wierd place right now where the PS3 is probably too expensive for the little software support right now, and the Wii is cheaper with it's one-off quarky software they eat up... JP needs it's FF, Monster Hunter, HSG, and stuff... Don't expect sales to jump there until they have a reason to buy... And the software IS coming, it's just not this month...

And who knows what's going to happen with the Wii... no one knows at this time... It's the console to be most skeptical about in the long haul IMHO...

 

[GhaleonEB]

yeah "if"
the 360 isn't the new ps2 I think Nintendo will be the new leader and MS will be third cause they don't do well in Japan and Europe

It will be interesting if the 360 outsells the PS3 by enough in March NPD to make up for the PS3 outselling the 360 in Japan, as it did in February. That's 90k. If so we could be starting to see a trend where the gap is big enough that Microsoft makes up for Japan in the US, and Europe is the difference between them.