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Sony: We'll sell 3 Million PSPs in NA this Xmas
- Thread starter Rhindle
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I agreed with everything else in this post, but here is where you and I part ways. It isn't a knock against GTA or the technical prowess of the PSP, but that $250 (now $300) pricetag. I've said it before and I'll say it again, at $250-300 it is impossible for the PSP to have a system seller. There isn't a game out there that will drive a $300-350 handheld sale on its own. It will push a few people off the fence, but the majority of PSP sales will be driven bu people who wanted it to begin with and are now getting it as a present, which at $300-350 won't be more people than the DS where you can get the system and a game for $150.Razoric said:
if it were online multiplayer I would lend much more credence to it. hell, if it were single cart multiplay I would give it more of a thought. ad hoc only though so I just don't see that feature driving a significant amount of sales.Mrbob said:
borghe said:
Could you imagine the look on young Timmie's face when he asked for a PSP and GTA for Xmas, only to get a DS with Super Princess Peach!
Here is what GTA PSP is stacking up against. As of September 2005:
Format Title Publisher Rel Date LTD Sales Sep-05
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) Oct-02 6,674,792
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) Nov-04 5,795,052
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO 3 ROCKSTAR GAMES (TAKE 2) Oct-01 5,583,071
Frankfurter
Member
@MrBob
There will of course be people that buy their kids a PSP + GTA (or whatever), but imho there aren't that much parents willing (or able) to spend 300 Dollar/Euro+ for a single christmas gift.
There will of course be people that buy their kids a PSP + GTA (or whatever), but imho there aren't that much parents willing (or able) to spend 300 Dollar/Euro+ for a single christmas gift.
I'm sorry, but could you list cummulative installed bases with those numbers also? Ooh, and if you could figure out a formula to determine net worth of the system in regards existing AAA releases at the time of each release that would be helpful also.Mrbob said:
Will parrents drop $300-350 on PSP+GTA? Yes, I never said they wouldn't. Will more parents do that than drop $150 on DS+MKDS? umm.. does that even need an answer?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Why all the "parents" comments? Most PSP owners will be buying their own-- either affluent teens or young adults.
Hydro_Alexis
Banned
Haha! tough talk from sony which i for one do not believe is possible.
When mario kart drops in a value pack for $99.99 and when that giga pack drops for $299 with no game i would really like to see what the parents would be thinking the ideal christmas present would be.
When mario kart drops in a value pack for $99.99 and when that giga pack drops for $299 with no game i would really like to see what the parents would be thinking the ideal christmas present would be.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
Parents shouldn't be buying their kids PSPs for GTA - their kids aren't old enough to play it.
Jack Thompson has probably scared a lot of them off that purchase!
GTA is going to be interesting - it'll be fascinatiing to see how well the game can drive PSP hardware sales.
The assumption is that people have held off buying a PSP but GTA will be the thing that pushes people over the edge. But $300 is a lot of cash for one game (okay, they might pick up madden as well). Even when GTA3 hit the PS2, there were LOTS of reasons to buy a PS2. Time will tell if the PSP is the same.
Jack Thompson has probably scared a lot of them off that purchase!
GTA is going to be interesting - it'll be fascinatiing to see how well the game can drive PSP hardware sales.
The assumption is that people have held off buying a PSP but GTA will be the thing that pushes people over the edge. But $300 is a lot of cash for one game (okay, they might pick up madden as well). Even when GTA3 hit the PS2, there were LOTS of reasons to buy a PS2. Time will tell if the PSP is the same.
I just don't see this even coming close to happening.
With the iPod Nano, iPod video, Xbox 360, tons of new PS2 stuff, amazing DS lineup/bundles/WiFi, and the pretty steep price of the PSP, it just doesn't seem likely that it's going to be the seller they think it will be. Sure, a ton of units will be sold, but they need to be a bit realistic in their estimates.
With the iPod Nano, iPod video, Xbox 360, tons of new PS2 stuff, amazing DS lineup/bundles/WiFi, and the pretty steep price of the PSP, it just doesn't seem likely that it's going to be the seller they think it will be. Sure, a ton of units will be sold, but they need to be a bit realistic in their estimates.
I don't believe this for one simple reason. If you are an affluent teen or young adult, why wouldn't you have bought one already? GTA is that much of a deal breaker?Ignatz Mouse said:
No, most this holiday will be gifts, to be sure.
this is EXACTLY what I am saying. Glad to see I am not the only "troll" here.DCharlie said:
GTA LCS will be big -- no doubt. Might even sell a solid 600-750k or so this year alone, but I wouldnt doubt that both Nintendogs AND Mario Kart outsell it handily (Nintendogs could easily be at 1.5 million by the end of the year I think). I wouldnt be surprised if Super Mario 64 itself outsells it to be honest.
GTA will move a lot of hardware, but at the current cost of the system, I simply cant see it competing with the DS and feel 3 million is completely out of reach with so many other options that are attractive. For me, the iPod was simply a more attractive item so I sold my PSP and replaced my iPod.. and this was before the iPod Photo had become standard. Now with the better battery life and new 5G model, I wouldnt even think twice about it. 2 million will be difficult.
GTA will move a lot of hardware, but at the current cost of the system, I simply cant see it competing with the DS and feel 3 million is completely out of reach with so many other options that are attractive. For me, the iPod was simply a more attractive item so I sold my PSP and replaced my iPod.. and this was before the iPod Photo had become standard. Now with the better battery life and new 5G model, I wouldnt even think twice about it. 2 million will be difficult.
borghe said:
This is what strikes me, too. If you're already rather well-to-do and you like gadgets, I'd assume you'd already own a PSP if you really wanted one. Especially if you wanted GTA. Why bother waiting? The PSP is definitely a luxury item, and I just can't see a ton of people dropping $300 for GTA.
Wait wait, GTA:SA had declining numbers? Now I may not be so polished on every single NPD number, but I'm pretty sure GTA:SA was selling at a faster rate than GTAIII and Vice City, and the only reason it has declined at all is because of the whole Hot Coffee fiasco and nobody carying an Adult Rated game.
Anyway, on subject, I really have my doubts that GTA:LCS is going to be some sort of superstar game for the PSP. I think it'll be a great game, but I just can't see it reaching the same sort of success (relative to its userbase, of course) that makes it the "killer app" PSP needs. It certainly has the polish, gameplay and franchise power of a killer app, but I can't put my finger on it. I just don't think it's going to do near as well as people expect/hope.
Anyway, on subject, I really have my doubts that GTA:LCS is going to be some sort of superstar game for the PSP. I think it'll be a great game, but I just can't see it reaching the same sort of success (relative to its userbase, of course) that makes it the "killer app" PSP needs. It certainly has the polish, gameplay and franchise power of a killer app, but I can't put my finger on it. I just don't think it's going to do near as well as people expect/hope.
Oh, and I'd just like to say, about the reviews of Liberty City Stories. A lot of journos have been starving for an opportunity to to justify their early lust towards the PSP, and I can see some overwhelming hype ahead. But, like I said earlier, isn't this game out in a week? There really hasn't been a lot of media or information, has there?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
borghe said:
Why does it have to be more than the DS? I thought this would be whethter or not Sony hit their totals, not whether or not they outsold the DS.
Isn't the Nintendo company line that they're OK not being number one, as long as they make money in the end? Given the strong software sales and the UMD sales, does anybody ting Sony is not wither making money, or will be in the near term?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Amir0x said:
Judging from the numbers, it may still outsell VC. It hasn't hit bargain prices yet, and I'm sure VC saw a sales boost from that.
Anyway more than 1 million PSPs have been sold in Europe so far:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12402
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12402
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
borghe said:
Um, retail items sell the vast majority of their production during the fourth quarter, whether for kids or not. Lots of reasons-- gifts, bonuses, whatever. I justify purchases to myself this time of year. My wife buys me things, and I buy her things-- and she's not my parent.
Not to mention holiday advertising, or the availability of new games (of which GTA is only one) or wanting to wait for a better deal (like the Giga Pack).
It's clear to me from the marketing that the target audience for the PSP is still young adults, and the features support that notion.
Edit: typoes
Xellotah said:
This GTA has multi-player... I'm curious to see how much publicity that particular facet of the game is going to get.
I personally think that's a HUGE (finally officiall)addition to the series and if made a well known fact could definitely help its sales.
ratcliffja
Member
I still think it's hilarious that they expect to sell more systems by actually making it more expensive. It's a better value, sure, but people fear bigger price tags. Screw them over with hidden fees all you want, but a $200 bare bones PSP would be much more successful than a $300 PSP with lots of accessories. Heck, even a $250 PSP with GTA included would sell much better. For once, I think NOA is making the better business decision this holiday season in going with game bundles and custom colors. Also, the timing of their big releases is excellent, especially with Mario Kart coming just long enough after GTA to avoid being overwhelmed, yet just long enough before Thanksgiving to get some momentum.
Razoric said:
I'm bookmarking this, and I'll remember it the next time someone complains about all the Mario games.
Mario is laying bricks
Mario is building cars
Mario is snorting coke
I was never a big fan of GTAIII or GTA: Vice City, so my opinion probably isn't a good one when talking about an increase or decline in quality. I will be getting Liberty City Stories, though, simply because it's portable, and if there's a quicksave feature, I think a sprawling game like GTA lends itself well to the portable format.
I think it's partly because LCS takes place at a locale that has already been featured in a PS2 game. It's not to say it won't offer anything new, because it will (hello multiplayer!), but I think it'll get some of the "port/smaller version" stigma from the masses. I think some people are already jaded over the PSP price, and now the first GTA game it gets is in the already played Liberty City. If this GTA game was somewhere else, I think things would be dramatically different. Just my $0.02 though -- I could be wrong.Amir0x said:
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Razoric said:
GTAs are coming out at about half the frequency of Tomb Raiders, which is one reason the quality stays high.
Are we going to complain about Advance Wars, too?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
ratcliffja said:
I dunno. The major slam against the PSP as any kind of media player is that is doesn't have the storage. 1GB isn't a lot, but now it can hold a significant amount of video right out of the box. I think it's a good move.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Soul4ger said:I'm bookmarking this, and I'll remember it the next time someone complains about all the Mario games.
You miss the fact that that argument always comes up as a counter-argument to somebody complaining about sequels. If the improved quality/features/experience argument works for Mario games, why doesn't it work for GTA games?
Spazbiohaz
Member
2.5-3 million sold is a world wide number Sony does it every time. With that they may have a chance. But, I feel iPod will take away from their numbers more then they expect. And with Nintendo and their Online deal with McDonalds I think the name will be all over TV with McDonalds commercials. I think Sony has a chance looking at a World Wide statement, but they are out of there mind if it is a NA statement.
I would like to point out:
"The PSP Giga Pack will include a USB cable and a newly-designed PSP stand for hands-free viewing along with the new larger capacity Memory Stick, which offers enough storage for around 30 hours of music, 500 digital photos or two feature films."
Can you even listen to that music before the battery runs out? Tisk Tisk.
I would like to point out:
"The PSP Giga Pack will include a USB cable and a newly-designed PSP stand for hands-free viewing along with the new larger capacity Memory Stick, which offers enough storage for around 30 hours of music, 500 digital photos or two feature films."
Can you even listen to that music before the battery runs out? Tisk Tisk.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Spazbiohaz said:
Yeah, becuase I stay up late listening to music for 30 hours straight all the time.
Edit: real-life battery tests show about 10 hours of mp3 playback on a single charge. Comprable to a lot of mp3 players out there.
I never specifically said kids. I said gifts. You said it right there in your last sentence. Anyone who has the cash to buy a PSP isn't going to go into the holiday season when they are already likely going to be laying down a ton of cash for other people and say "Gee.. while I'm buying all of this I better buy this $250 handheld that has been available all year and only has one new notable game out for it now as opposed to then."Ignatz Mouse said:
holiday advertising? Umm.. they won't be advertising anything that hasn't already been advertised and hyped to death, save GTA. Availability of new games you covered for me. And the giga-pack, while financially a better deal (vs. buying a PSP and 1GB mem stick), is hardly going to move people who were already thinking the PSP wasn't a very good deal at $250, let alone $300
I agree entirely. Hell, they got me to buy one (though not really that young anymore). But my belief still stands that most of those young adults who wanted one and can afford one have already bought one. A few maybe haven't, but the majority of PSP sales will come from gift giving.
but to steer this away from PSP vs. DS, I still think 3M is entirely unrealistic for PSP this holiday (though they did only say ship). even 2M is pushing it. I believe they will sell less this holiday season than since launch til then. Most people who want one I believe already have one, they aren't providing any new incentive (save GTA) to buy one, and as a gift option the PSP is freaking expensive. GTA I say won't hit 500K (up 100K from my previous guess) and PSP won't hit 2.1M over the season. Those are my guesses.
edit - if Sony is referring to worldwide then I think that is actually a pretty conservative number.
It's too soon to call the psp a failure, but it's soon enough to say it's not a success. It's selling to a geek/hardcore gamers audience... and that's all. I wonder if Sony expected this, after years of Playstation domination. Worse, the PSP now seems to be plagued between pirated games and deceiving commercial games. Pirates will still like their PSP but won't do Sony no good, others will end up being disappointed by it. The growing number of people reselling their PSP on ebay and specialized forums is a clear indication that something is going wrong. AFAIC, I really got irritated with UMD loadings, glitches and prices. Games look like their PS2 counterpart, with less qualities. WE9 for instance, which is my favorite game and one of the reasons I bought the PSP, was a huge disappointment, huge loadings, flawed dpad and lack of a wide view ruined the experience. The PSP is not the holy grail it was depected to be. If you are wealthy, get one, "because even your mom has an ipod". But apart from that, you'll probably regret you didn't save your money for something more special.
marc^o^ said:
Besides the fact that I think your above analysis is completely worthless I have a few questions for you.
If the PSP is just selling to the geek/hardcore gaming audience as you suppose... then who the hell is buying all those UMD's?
Geeks would just rip their DVD's and hardcore gamers aren't interested in movies.
I thought Geeks and Hardcore gamers hated EA... who the hell is buying those EA titles?
Finally I just took a look at ebay... for all those folks selling PSP's there seems to be quite a shitload more buying them....
What does lack of a wide view mean anyway?
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