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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
May 22, 2018
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Noticing this whole China Evergrande thing coming across my timeline today and even saw it pop up in a group text I share with some guys from work.


Is this something to keep an eye on or is it going to be more isolated to the Asian markets?
 
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GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
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Went shopping and sold a bunch of puts on stocks that I want. If I get assigned I get assigned, if not then I'll have a nice payday on the 15th October.

Noticing this whole China Evergrande thing coming across my timeline today and even saw it pop up in a group text I share with some guys from work.


Is this something to keep an eye on or is it going to be more isolated to the Asian markets?

The impact will be global. There's not much that can happen that doesn't have wide reaching implications anymore.
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
May 22, 2018
12,465
20,437
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Went shopping and sold a bunch of puts on stocks that I want. If I get assigned I get assigned, if not then I'll have a nice payday on the 15th October.



The impact will be global. There's not much that can happen that doesn't have wide reaching implications anymore.
Well shit. Any chance China bails them out?
 

GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
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Well shit. Any chance China bails them out?

The word going around at the moment is no but I don't think China can just sit on their hands when real estate makes up ~25% of their economy and Evergrande is the biggest player by some margin.
 

GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
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It always does.... eventually....

Personally I'd love it to stay this way a few weeks while I get some cash. Long term baby, all I care is where my stocks are at in 5, 10 or 20 years. :)

TBH with the market as inflated as it is at the moment it would be wise to keep ~20-25% in cash for when the drops do come.

Just IMO of course.
 

Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
May 22, 2018
12,465
20,437
935
The word going around at the moment is no but I don't think China can just sit on their hands when real estate makes up ~25% of their economy and Evergrande is the biggest player by some margin.
If this were the US or some other typical capitalist country I would agree, but China might be willing to eat this just to make a point.

We already know they don't give a shit about their people.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Mar 15, 2007
15,681
4,736
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Well shit. Any chance China bails them out?
No. Evergrande owes $300 billion, a large portion to international hedge funds and banks. If CCP bails them out it would take a few dozen billions before they see any benefit to Chinese society out of this rescue.

The only reason why I see the CCP bailing them out would be to restore investor confidence, but I think that China is willing to take the hit and let investors learn from their loses.
 
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HoodWinked

Member
Jun 30, 2010
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I'd imagine China prolly sentence the people in charge to death, then take the properties and complete building for the viable ones. Investors and foreign institutions will get fucked.

But China knows just like the movie industry no matter how much you fuck them over they'll come crawling back thinking that China will share. Look at the Disney, NBA, and Nike boot licking.
 

Taxexemption

Member
Oct 11, 2011
1,633
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I have no idea what is going to happen with Evergrande, but I find this kind of stuff exciting. I don't have a bunch of cash on the sidelines, so if things start going up in a week or two nothing will change for me. My instinct is that this is big. I'm down about 1.5% on my portfolio today, literally everything I own lost value today. Every single stock and etf, even if it didn't go down much it still went down. My marijuana related stocks and etfs are down more than everything else for the year, so come next payday I'll be putting a little extra there. That is a long term speculative play for me, as I've said before I assume that a lot of money will go into these stocks when marijuana becomes legal, and I expect that to happen in the next few years. If I'm wrong, this could be a huge money pit.
 

GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
26,501
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Added to my already large positions in Palantir and Cloudflare yesterdays crash. Lovely stuff. Fear x Greed.

PLTR didn't "crash" yesterday, you've bought on the higher end of the scale (near resistance).

what's for sale today boys

I'd say if you weren't tempted by yesterday's prices then you shouldn't be buying today, most things are up from yesterday at the moment.

Nothings really changed with the China/FED situation so I wouldn't take the fact that we are slightly green today as a signal for anything.
 
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Fools idol

Member
Aug 24, 2021
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PLTR didn't "crash" yesterday, you've bought on the higher end of the scale (near resistance).



I'd say if you weren't tempted by yesterday's prices then you shouldn't be buying today, most things are up from yesterday at the moment.

Nothings really changed with the China/FED situation so I wouldn't take the fact that we are slightly green today as a signal for anything.

I averaged up for sure but im still under $18 cost basis so not too fussed. Its a long term hold. Cloudflare cost basis of $41.
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
May 22, 2018
12,465
20,437
935
PLTR didn't "crash" yesterday, you've bought on the higher end of the scale (near resistance).



I'd say if you weren't tempted by yesterday's prices then you shouldn't be buying today, most things are up from yesterday at the moment.

Nothings really changed with the China/FED situation so I wouldn't take the fact that we are slightly green today as a signal for anything.
Yeah stuff being green doesn't mean much. The markets were closed there for a holiday.


So who knows what happens when everything starts up again.
 
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GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
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Yeah stuff being green doesn't mean much. The markets were closed there for a holiday.


So who knows what happens when everything starts up again.

Yep there's a payment deadline for them on Thursday I believe? If they can't even make that payment then it will spell trouble.

I averaged up for sure but im still under $18 cost basis so not too fussed. Its a long term hold. Cloudflare cost basis of $41.

My advice would be to be patient, look at your charts and try to only buy at or just under support rather than buy during periods of euphoria (when things are running up to resistance).

Things can come down faster than you think. Anything under 20 is good for PLTR based on where they are IMO. No rush, many more twists and come for both the stock market and them as a company.
 
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hangdang69

Member
Dec 5, 2016
184
105
295
Was doing great the last couple weeks making smaller options plays. Mainly riding RBLX up and down between $80 and $90, buying any selling calls and puts on the way up or down. Wiped out all of my progress in the last few trading days lol.

Grabbed some NVDA calls for cheap today hoping for a rebound and to get myself back in the green
 
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Fools idol

Member
Aug 24, 2021
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interesting late day tank of 4.5% or so on Disney because of lower than expected subs growth for Disney+. It's taken a bit of a beating recently overall compared to peers.

Certainly far too low risk for my tastes but may be ideal for anyone here who wants stable slow burn growth and a bit of a dividend.. Once the covid situation is ancient history and parks are at full capacity again this will be going great.
 

GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
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interesting late day tank of 4.5% or so on Disney because of lower than expected subs growth for Disney+. It's taken a bit of a beating recently overall compared to peers.

Certainly far too low risk for my tastes but may be ideal for anyone here who wants stable slow burn growth and a bit of a dividend.. Once the covid situation is ancient history and parks are at full capacity again this will be going great.

They suspended the dividend in favour of reinvesting the money to grow Disney+ for a while. Have alerts set up to notify me if it crosses 168 since that's where I'd like to enter. Might happen as soon as tomorrow if the market continues to be take a beating.

For what it's worth I'd say it's anything but low risk at the moment given it's current valuation and the fact that it's been traded like a growth stock since Disney+ entered the equation. No way is it anywhere near "set and forget" levels. I'm seeing it as a more risky potential swing trade considering the overall market conditions at the moment.
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Mar 15, 2007
15,681
4,736
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Added to my already large positions in Palantir and Cloudflare yesterdays crash. Lovely stuff. Fear x Greed.
Thumbs up for Cloudflare.

However, I still don’t see value in Palantir. It is just a data company with some good government contracts. Also, it is mostly being held by retails investors, traders without an edge in the game.

 
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GHG

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Thumbs up for Cloudflare.

However, I still don’t see value in Palantir. It is just a data company with some good government contracts. Also, it is mostly being held by retails investors, traders without an edge in the game.


PLTR is essentially a meme stock at this point. I cant say it doesn't make me raise an eyebrow when I see how heavily it's been pushed by youtubers and people on social media on the last year or so.
 

Taxexemption

Member
Oct 11, 2011
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PLTR is essentially a meme stock at this point. I cant say it doesn't make me raise an eyebrow when I see how heavily it's been pushed by youtubers and people on social media on the last year or so.

Anyone in PLTR should read their 10k. It's the strangest one I've ever read. It's in my top 5 of stocks I would do a youtube video on if I started a channel about stocks. This is something I kind of want to do, but I probably won't. I think my job would become complicated if I became a youtube personality. I may do it in the future, but that would likely be years away.

I'm genuinely unsure if I understand their financials. The section on stock based compensation had me questioning very basic assumptions I would make when looking at financials. I occasionally look at 10Ks for interesting information, or to just try to understand what a company I'm aware of actually does. This easily makes my top 5 most interesting 10Ks, it would probably be somewhere after CRON and MTCH.
 
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Fools idol

Member
Aug 24, 2021
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here is an interesting one.

Trading at a long term support level after a big selloff - a company that we all know and love to hate :)

Activision Blizzard. May scoop up some shares now the selling seems to be subsiding and were at a technical support level.

 

FactoryOfDeception

Neo Member
Mar 19, 2020
41
63
145
UPST just don't stop. First buy was in June and I just keep buying as it keeps running. Now my largest individual stock. I also like CRWD, ASAN, TEAM, SE, LSPD, DDOG, MNDY. Not financial advice.
 
Oct 26, 2018
21,660
30,247
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Finally. First big day in probably 3 weeks. +5% alone today.

Need one more of these spikes to get back to ATH.
 
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zeorhymer

Member
Nov 9, 2013
4,248
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San Francisco, CA
here is an interesting one.

Trading at a long term support level after a big selloff - a company that we all know and love to hate :)

Activision Blizzard. May scoop up some shares now the selling seems to be subsiding and were at a technical support level.
That is an interesting pattern. Probably scoop up a few shares and see where it'll take me. Only thing is, I don't see anything in the pipeline except CoD in the near future and anything with the Blizzard name seems to be Taboo. Unless D2 Remake surprises people with sales, then I dunno.
 

dem

Member
Jun 20, 2004
9,853
208
1,640
Went on a buying spree today...

BABA is destroying me.. lol :messenger_grinning_smiling::messenger_loudly_crying: I'm at 174. Gonna keep averaging down.
Still think I'll make money in the not too distant future. We'll see.
 
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Jun 4, 2020
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I was coming to ramble about Activision Blizzard but Fools idol Fools idol beat me by a day. My trading friends were talking about it today. The stock is on a very strong support on the weekly and daily chart. Plus Call of Duty is around the corner. It's a good one to buy even with all the investigations.
 

BigBooper

Member
Feb 28, 2018
3,780
4,364
680
Very tempted to bail on XOM right now because I've been holding it with little enthusiasm. Eh, might as well wait until the long term hold tax.
 

Taxexemption

Member
Oct 11, 2011
1,633
2,155
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Does anyone know a good place to download historical data for insider transactions in excel?


Edit: Apparently Insider screener is not a bad place, but I haven't figured out how to download that data into excel in a way where I can easily work with it.
 
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GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
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Everyone still alive?

I'm holding my breath and selling more puts.

If I die I die.

Not really, I'm ~50% cash now so can take assignment if I need to on most things but jesus christ it feels like there's no end to the sell off today.
 

godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Mar 15, 2007
15,681
4,736
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Cloudflare sinks >7% on the day it announces an AWS S3 competitor that does away with egress costs (you can unload your data for free).

I could save my full time employer $5 million/yr if I convinced them to move to Cloudflare for CDN, currently holding that discussion. All of the startups I advice are already on Cloudflare though.

Often, I feel that Wall Street whales really don’t grasp tech at all, or their advisors are too slow to react; probably some “has been” engineer that couldn’t cut it as a maker and switched to hedge fund advisor. Or maybe the algos fucked up, I don’t know. It just seems irrational to me that a company that is building the next AWS is so undervalued.

Anyway, I increased my NET position.
 
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GHG

Member
Nov 9, 2006
26,501
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Cloudflare sinks >7% on the day it announces an AWS S3 competitor that does away with egress costs (you can unload your data for free).

I could save my full time employer $5 million/yr if I convinced them to move to Cloudflare for CDN, currently holding that discussion. All of the startups I advice are already on Cloudflare though.

Often, I feel that Wall Street whales really don’t grasp tech at all, or their advisors are too slow to react; probably some “has been” engineer that couldn’t cut it as a maker and switched to hedge fund advisor. Or maybe the algos fucked up, I don’t know. It just seems irrational to me that a company that is building the next AWS is so undervalued.

Anyway, I increased my NET position.

You need to look at what you're basing your valuation off. At it's current valuation a lot of future growth is already priced in. That combined with the fact that it's had an unsustainably big run up in the last few months means that people will take profit here and look to re-enter when the stock price comes back down to earth.

I mean if you're comfortable buying at the current prices and think that they will be able to grow revenues and cash flow (over the next couple of years) to a point where it will be comfortably above the current valuation then go for it.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Mar 15, 2007
15,681
4,736
1,765
You need to look at what you're basing your valuation off. At it's current valuation a lot of future growth is already priced in. That combined with the fact that it's had an unsustainably big run up in the last few months means that people will take profit here and look to re-enter when the stock price comes back down to earth.

I mean if you're comfortable buying at the current prices and think that they will be able to grow revenues and cash flow (over the next couple of years) to a point where it will be comfortably above the current valuation then go for it.
In that argument you are assuming that the growth has been priced accordingly, and that is where I disagree with the valuations.

The cloud computing market is a $370B/yr industry, which will hit near a Trillion/yr in 2025, and Cloudflare is the fastest growing player, acquiring logos like a madman. Sitting at a $35B valuation, and being the startup darling, Cloudflare has a lot of room, and thanks to their technology (strong patents), they are uniquely positioned to take on the major players like AWS, MSFT and Google*.

The product they announced today is revolutionary in the sense that it can save you a lot of money if you are in the content delivery space. Like I said, I work for a company that could save $5m/yr if we were to switch. I doubt we will switch soon because we have a long standing relationship with AWS, and pay for tons of services years in advance to achieve discounts, however, we will definitely evaluate this idea in the future. A company that I know uses Cloudflare is Discord; they swear by it, and I bet that now they’ll get more bullish on their stack choice. I am often jelly of those guys.

*I like GCP, but not many enterprises want to do business with them since they deprecate services too often. I am bearish on their cloud offering.
 
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dem

Member
Jun 20, 2004
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Took a bit of profit on cenovus today. 50% in a bit over half a year.. I'll take it.

Ride out the rest a bit longer.


BABA is a bit of a scary situation... but hopefully it blows over.

Simon Rex Good Luck GIF by Simon Rex / Dirt Nasty


I want to average down a bit... but I'm wary of position growing too large. I'll wait it out a bit longer.
 
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