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The actual size of console install bases?

T

Taurus

Member
X360 and PS3 have both sold about 75-80 million pieces of hardware each. How many of these consoles are actually with different, separate owners? 40 million? 50 million?

Let's use X360 and the infamous RROD fiasco as well as YLOD of the PS3 as an example, not forgetting the Slim models of both consoles. If your console broke down and your warranty was over, then you basically had to buy a new console which many did. Some upgraded to a more silent, maybe bigger HDD (or for other reasons) Slim model.

I'm using myself as an example. I've had 2 X360s sor far; the 60Gb model, which I later upgraded to a 250Gb Slim model to get bigger HDD and WiFi. So I count as two X360 consoles bought for the total of 75-80 million consoles sold.

Then again, I know of people who bought launch PS3 60Gb, then upgraded to more silent 40Gb version which broke down, and then bought the PS3 Slim which counts as 3 consoles sold total to the same person. I've also read horror stories about people with 4 to even 6 different X360s, but refurbished/warranty-repaired consoles from MS don't count as sold consoles, right?

(I don't think it's necessary to count Wii here, because it had much more reliable hardware and no Slim model. I know, Wii Mini came out but it doesn't really count here because it came out so late compared to competition.)

I'm very interested in all the sales and game industry related discussion and I've been wondering this for a while. Is there any way to get an estimate for this? Maybe make a poll about how many times you have bought the same console in this generation?
 
I would also be interesting to know how many owners buy more than 1 game a year. Looking at the sales of the most recent hits, that number has to be pretty low.
 
Here is something Yusuf Mehdi said about 360 unit sales leading up to the Xbox One launch.

To sell another 25 million, half of those will probably come from replacements, but half will come from new buyers. And the way we’ll break into those segments is by hitting new price points, getting new classes of entertainment to come with the Xbox, and breaking into new customer segments. So you’ll see the Xbox 360 continue to exist, even as we launch the next generation Xbox One.
Click to expand...

Source: http://www.vg247.com/2013/05/24/xbo...on-lifetime-sales-100-million-xbox-360-units/

Expecting only half to be new buyers is some interesting data.
 
I don't think there's a way for us to know for sure. Some at microsoft and sony probably can ballpark it a lot better than us, but I doubt they are allowed to talk about it
 
It really is a tricky situation. I know someone who has purchased 7 Xbox 360s because they kept breaking and he never sent them in. Many people seem to do things like this, too, since the repairs often cost almost as much as a new console.
 
JoeM86 said:
It really is a tricky situation. I know someone who has purchased 7 Xbox 360s because they kept breaking and he never sent them in. Many people seem to do things like this, too, since the repairs often cost almost as much as a new console.
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It really is.

I don't think it would be bold at all to say that PS3+X360 actual combined install base might be less than 100 million, even though total sales combined are closer to 160 million..?
 
Yes, there are 60M broken and/or discarded PS3s and 360s out in the wild. And not a single broken Wii.

A poll of NeoGAF users will indubitably verify this.

You've cracked the case.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Yes, there are 60M broken and/or discarded PS3s and 360s out in the wild. And not a single broken Wii.

A poll of NeoGAF users will indubitably verify this.

You've cracked the case.
Click to expand...
Thanks for contributing to the discussion, I really appreciate you took your precious time to post this. We can count Wii as well, but no Slim model and a lot less common hardware failures don't make a point here. If you have a better idea to get even a slightest estimation, then please share your thoughts instead of being a smart-ass.

Grief.exe said:
Here is something Yusuf Mehdi said about 360 unit sales leading up to the Xbox One launch.



Source: http://www.vg247.com/2013/05/24/xbo...on-lifetime-sales-100-million-xbox-360-units/

Expecting only half to be new buyers is some interesting data.
Click to expand...
Replacements? They have to mean those who buy a totally new console after one breaks down, not the ones that are sent in for repairs and then sent out?

I mean I had my X360 250Gb Slim sent in because the Wifi stopped working. I got a new replacement console for free from MS, but that can't count as a sold unit for them, right?

So what does the term "replacement" actually mean here?
 
There were also the big console wave bans that Microsoft sent out for flashing firmware - forcing these people to buy more 360's. I don't think Sony has banned as many consoles but is still up there with sales.
 
Taurus said:
Replacements? They have to mean those who buy a totally new console after one breaks down, not the ones that are sent in for repairs and then sent out?

I mean I had my X360 250Gb Slim sent in because the Wifi stopped working. I got a new replacement console for free from MS, but that can't count as a sold unit for them, right?

So what does the term "replacement" actually mean here?
Click to expand...

People who upgrade, people who buy a new one when their old, out of warranty one breaks down, etc.

For example, if I trade in my Halo 4 slim for a new mini, that would count as a replacement, not a sale from a new buyer/customer. At least that's my understanding of how he's using the term.

Doesn't appear to be open to interpretation either....
 
Finally a thread that explains the Xbox360 selling loads of units!! Because most of my friends have had to buy 3 yes 3! Xbox360s because of RROD, not reading disks etc!
 
cormack12 said:
There were also the big console wave bans that Microsoft sent out for flashing firmware - forcing these people to buy more 360's. I don't think Sony has banned as many consoles but is still up there with sales.
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I didn't even remember this anymore.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/182010/xbox_users_banned.html

Damn, almost 1 million consoles banned. Well, they work as offline consoles at least for some. But many of those probably just bought a new console.

lefantome said:
Don't forget used consoles.

But i think that the majority of thepeople has only one console per generation. I have.
Click to expand...
Do you mean you have had the same exact console all the time? 6-7 years if you bought it at launch? What would you do if it broke down and warranty was over? Pay for repair or get a new one?
 
KnockOneOff said:
Finally a thread that explains the Xbox360 selling loads of units!! Because most of my friends have had to buy 3 yes 3! Xbox360s because of RROD, not reading disks etc!
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I don't think there are that many 60Gb PS3s alive anymore to be honest for example... This is not a troll thread. The YLOD appears to be pretty common, but not as nearly as massive as RROD was.
 
Taurus said:
I don't think there are that many 60Gb PS3s alive anymore to be honest for example... This is not a troll thread. The YLOD appears to be pretty common, but not as nearly as massive as RROD was.
Click to expand...

I know it's not a troll thread buddy, I agree 100% with this I thread, and I wish Microsoft would mention this within there numbers!!

I still have a 60GB going, BUT god does it generate some heat :(
 
Taurus said:
I don't think there are that many 60Gb PS3s alive anymore to be honest for example... This is not a troll thread. The YLOD appears to be pretty common, but not as nearly as massive as RROD was.
Click to expand...


YLOD is common but it is for 5-6-7 years console which is used daily and it has various reasons. Most of hardware won't hold up 5 years if used daily.


there is ton of launch ps3 that still works without problems.
 
I've always thought this when companies say 80 million consoles sold. With the failure rates and new models you could probably cut that figure by 1/3 to get a closer idea of the actual install base. This is just pure speculation of course but you always see comments from people where they have bought the new model or had to buy a replacement for whatever reason
 
before this gen, i never had a console die on me; that being said....... I had 5 xb360's and 2 ps3's; all the 360's failed with RROD, and My BC Ps3 YLOD after only 2 1/2 years. My Slim Ps3 is still running brilliantly, I'll be buying a new 360 when the price drops. My launch Wii is still alive and kicking.
 
Do you mean install base purely in terms of units sold to an individual or active users?

The two will be different of course. The question for units sold is really down to how many people bought multiple consoles due to failure. The 360 has to be in the worst position even allowing for RROD extended warranty. It had a far higher failure rate so on average has to have seen more purchase/replacements. The PS3 will have seen some of the same thing but to a lesser extent, the Wii would have seen this the least.

The install base of users is a lot tricker though - both consoles suppot multiple accounts. However I suspect the PS3 slightly edges 360 again here as on PS3 online is free so it's very attractive to have multiple accounts with no penalties whereas on 360 to get online you need a Gold account. Both consoles surely have a bigger user base due to multiple people sharing but I think the lower cost to get online on PS3 would mean more people globally would be lured to sharing a PS3 than a 360.

But of course you then get into people buying a new 360/PS3 for a custom skin and sticking the old (and still working) console in another room - and of course there is a second hand market too where older consoles are sold on after a trade in.

My conclusion - we'll never know but the 360 is probably the furthest from shipped to active, the PS3 next then the Wii is probably closest in shipped to active.
 
Taurus said:
Thanks for contributing to the discussion, I really appreciate you took your precious time to post this. We can count Wii as well, but no Slim model and a lot less common hardware failures don't make a point here. If you have a better idea to get even a slightest estimation, then please share your thoughts instead of being a smart-ass.
Click to expand...
There is no way to get an estimation. Certainly not from an unscientific nonsense poll of here.

As far as I'm aware, it's frowned upon on here to pretend that the 360 installed base is really two-thirds the size it's reported as because of RROD. I highly doubt the same doesn't apply to the PS3 and its much less frequent YLOD; not least of which because 50+ million of the 75M+ sold are of the Slim or later models that don't suffer such affliction.

Your OP suggests that every single pre-Slim PS3 has since been discarded and that more than half of the pre-360S models have been discarded.

There's no indication that the redesigns drove en mass replacement for the PS3, and I doubt that people are going to go out in droves to replace their 360S systems with the new design. I don't see why anyone would assume people would want the new hideous PS3 model to replace the Slim or the original.

I don't know what sort of "discussion" you're expecting, particularly with such a leading and factually absent OP, beyond a bunch of people saying "I've had 5 PS3s/360s there must be only 20M of each out there because of my stupid anecdote" and/or what sort of conclusions you expect to draw from said pointless anecdotes.
 
It's interesting to think about, but ultimately seems to mean little. There is seemingly no way even Sony/MS would be aware of how many of the sold systems are being actively in use, and a poll given in a place like neogaf is only giving the hardcore gamer's side which would skew it towards going through more consoles.

An important stat regarding this is the attachment rate of software per hardware, and I know the 360 was always impressive there while the wii was poor. It's hard to get numbers with how secretive the NPD is but I recall it being 8.9 games per console back in 2010 or 11 for the 360, meaning it's still after the RRoD mess, which only is holding that down.
 
Taurus said:
I don't think there are that many 60Gb PS3s alive anymore to be honest for example... This is not a troll thread. The YLOD appears to be pretty common, but not as nearly as massive as RROD was.
Click to expand...

Still got my 60gb PS3 which has been and still is on most days of the week. However eight old 360 models and two slims later i'm starting to doubt M$ quality checks....
 
(I don't think it's necessary to count Wii here, because it had much more reliable hardware and no Slim model. I know, Wii Mini came out but it doesn't really count here because it came out so late compared to competition.)
Click to expand...

lies.

my launch Wii died and i bought a second console. it happened about 4 months after launch. later i got a backup Wii when they announced they were removing BC from the console (this is more convenient than tracking a new GC)

just because there wasn't a widespread equivalent of RROD or YLOD for Wii doesn't mean the console didn't die from common issues (though the whole issue with double layered discs caused some noise when SSBB came out and i bet several people bought a new Wii instead of sending their own to repair)
 
Madao said:
lies.

my launch Wii died and i bought a second console. it happened about 4 months after launch. later i got a backup Wii when they announced they were removing BC from the console (this is more convenient than tracking a new GC)

just because there wasn't a widespread equivalent of RROD or YLOD for Wii doesn't mean the console didn't die from common issues (though the whole issue with double layered discs for some noise when SSBB came out and i bet several people bought a new Wii instead of sending their own to repair)
Click to expand...

Indeed, the Wii did fail. I had to send mine in for repairs. However, the failure rate for the Wii is far below the 360 and PS3. Hell, the 360 was at 60% failure rate in its first two years was it not?
 
shinra-bansho said:
There is no way to get an estimation. Certainly not from an unscientific nonsense poll of here.

As far as I'm aware, it's frowned upon on here to pretend that the 360 installed base is really two-thirds the size it's reported as because of RROD. I highly doubt the same doesn't apply to the PS3 and its much less frequent YLOD; not least of which because 50+ million of the 75M+ sold are of the Slim or later models that don't suffer such affliction.

Your OP suggests that every single pre-Slim PS3 has since been discarded and that more than half of the pre-360S models have been discarded.

There's no indication that the redesigns drove en mass replacement for the PS3, and I doubt that people are going to go out in droves to replace their 360S systems with the new design. I don't see why anyone would assume people would want the new hideous PS3 model to replace the Slim or the original.

I don't know what sort of "discussion" you're expecting, particularly with such a leading and factually absent OP, beyond a bunch of people saying "I've had 5 PS3s/360s there must be only 20M of each out there because of my stupid anecdote" and/or what sort of conclusions you expect to draw from said pointless anecdotes.
Click to expand...
So this matter shouldn't be discussed then? With all the speculation threads flying around this one is not allowed in your opinion? I didn't suggest anything, I was just wondering and trying to start a discussion about a topic I found interesting. Please do not reply.
 
Coolwhip said:
I would also be interesting to know how many owners buy more than 1 game a year. Looking at the sales of the most recent hits, that number has to be pretty low.
Click to expand...

Many, many people just buy one game per year. The total hardware sold to software sold this year is something like 2:1. That points to millions of PS3s sitting doing nothing under TVs or in boxes as well as millions of people just buying 1xCOD or 1xFIFA per year.
 
Miles Quaritch said:
People who upgrade, people who buy a new one when their old, out of warranty one breaks down, etc.

For example, if I trade in my Halo 4 slim for a new mini, that would count as a replacement, not a sale from a new buyer/customer. At least that's my understanding of how he's using the term.

Doesn't appear to be open to interpretation either....
Click to expand...

Where do you think your old consoles go? Do you think that when a console gets traded in for credit the store pitches it in the garbage?
 
Forget about replacements. I've always been interested in guesstimating the number of unique users between the 3 consoles, how much overlap there, and comparing across generations to figure out growth and contraction over the years. Unfortunately there's no scientific way of figuring this out.
 
I've had 2 of each. The 360 got replaced by Microsoft for free and is still in use by my sister. The PS3 it was cheaper just to go out and buy a used one.

So, little to no change to the install base from me.

I imagine it's not as high as some of the estimates in here, Maybe 10% each.
 
shinra-bansho said:
You suggest that the "real" installed base is 100M combined rather than the reported ~160M based on absolutely nothing early in the thread. Your OP opines numbers of 40M a piece.

And I'll post where I like.
Click to expand...
"40 million questionmark, 50 million questionmark". It's right there in the OP, look at it. I was throwing around guesses to start the discussion.
 
Coolwhip said:
I would also be interesting to know how many owners buy more than 1 game a year. Looking at the sales of the most recent hits, that number has to be pretty low.
Click to expand...

How did you come to that conclusion? Ive bought 4 games this year so far but i bought them months after release when they were on sale. So even though i bought 4 games none of them charted in the NPD top 10 the month i bought them.
 
I've had 3 PS3s, one launch, one fat 40gb (bought while the first was being repaired), one slim w/TV purchase. I have the 40gb (HDD upgraded), my brother has my launch one, the slim was stolen. Presumably the latter is being used by someone.


The install base doesn't go down because someone traded in for a new console. If someone bought your old system, thats still a user. I think the people who buy new systems and keep the old when they're perfectly fine would be exceedingly rare. I also think most people affected by the RROD+YLOD get them repaired and they remain in the active install base (certainly the case for me when I got hit with both). The issue wasn't as prevalent with newer models when the warrantys expired too.
 
TAJ said:
Where do you think your old consoles go? Do you think that when a console gets traded in for credit the store pitches it in the garbage?
Click to expand...

I've seen this exact thing happen though. It's rare, but it happens. I bought a second hand N-GAGE from Gamestation once, got home and found it didn't work, took it back and after some fiddling with it, the guy behind the counter threw it in the bin and gave me a refund.

I can only assume the same happens when people buy a used console that's banned, etc and when it's returned or if the cost of repairing is more than the cost of the console.
 
I have also maintained that a lot of PS3's have only ever played blurays and were not bought to play games. I made a thread a while back about this where GAF members said how many ps3s and 360's they'd bought and it was alarming. I'm on my phone or I'd search for it and link it.

Here it is:
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=541050
 
Amneisac said:
I have also maintained that a lot of PS3's have only ever played blurays and were not bought to play games. I made a thread a while back about this where GAF members said how many ps3s and 360's they'd bought and it was alarming. I'm on my phone or I'd search for it and link it.

Here it is:
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=541050
Click to expand...

I totally buy this. It seems to be Sony's MO. In the same manner, there were a lot of people who bought a PS2 just as a DVD player with additional functionality. It was probably never used as much of a gaming machine in those households.
 
FlyFaster said:
damn, 50%? There must be some fight club-esque formulas at work. Similar to "planned obsolescence" in a way.
Click to expand...

I still have a launch day 20 gig that works fine. Its what 8 years old. If they keep making and selling xbox 360s for another 4 years then my console will be 12 years old. I could see needing a replacement for it after that long.
 
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