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[Vinci]

And you call other people trolls? That joke is old and was barely funny the first time. The way people are dismissing Natal reminds me of the way that people were dismissing the Wii.

I think Natal is interesting, but I don't see what the hell it's doing there. It seems really ill-timed and more of a kneejerk response to me than anything else. Should've just saved it for the launch of their next system; it's going to be next to impossible to change the 360's inertia at this point, likely harder than Nintendo altering the Wii's current trajectory.

The thing about the vitality sensor is that for any other gaming company it's potential is massively counter-intuitive. For almost everyone on this board it's also massively counter-intuitive. Nobody knows how Nintendo is going to make use of it except for a few people at Nintendo. That means that they can announce it early like they did, and of course the first thing that MS and Sony did after E3 was get a team working on duplicating the hardware, but neither company will have any idea as to what to do with it. I'm sure that we won't see the software until a few short months before release, and that will be enough for Nintendo to make clear their madly brilliant idea, whatever it is. As far as the public is concerned, Nintendo will be the only way to go, just like it is for motion control and fitness games.

Honestly, I'm confused and very curious about the Vitality Sensor. I agree that Nintendo has something in mind though; they probably showed it this E3 to get the mocking and 'WTF' responses out of the way.

As far as further expansion of the Wii, I think Nintendo is saving it's biggest punches for whatever system it has next. They've already won the casual sector this generation, and they need to save those big punches to make sure they keep them next generation. As far as the enthusiast crowd goes, I think that they're a much more straightforward target. Come into next generation with hype, a low price point, and most of the same multi-platform games as the competition, and they can take a fairly large bite of that market, as long as they still have the casual crowd and therefore the crossover audience between the two.

I agree with this. Nintendo's R&D is spending a ton on something, and it's likely whatever they're putting together for the next system - which is going to be their TRUE big deal. The Wii was just an appetizer, methinks - though, as I stated before, it's possible the appetizer will prove more flavorful than the meal that comes after.

...

And now I'm hungry.

 

[Evlar]

Anyone that thinks Microsoft is going to release 360 1.5 as their next console is disillusional and wishful thinking for Nintendo.

Microsoft can't afford not to go big and knows that in order to keep the hard core games crowd they have to be bleeding edge graphics technology, that they need to keep continuity between PC horsepower and console horsepower in order to re leverage technology.

This is something Nintendo will never be able to compete with from a R&D and pure cost\risk perspective to think otherwise is ignorant.

The question isn't whether Microsoft could do that if it was necessary to reach their goals. There's no doubt they could. The question is whether their goal is to 'keep the hard core games crowd', whether MS particularly cares if that crowd gravitates to XBox or Windows, and what it will take to hold on to the hardcore if we assume Sony is marginalized in the next generation.

The current development environment is a result of an arms race in technology and in developer support between two very large corporations with profit centers external to the gaming industry. If the arms race ends then the development environment will change. The 'hardcore' may not like it, but unfortunately for that group of consumers, they have been enjoying the benefits of development and technology they haven't been entirely paying for. A portion of the current console environment is on a form of corporate welfare which is being underwritten by the sale of operating system licenses and televisions, and if the incentive to fund this welfare system diminishes the environment will change without regard for inconvenience to the hardcore.

 

[HiResDes]

Yeah.... no...

it was a stealth troll...But I was only half kidding.

 

[mysticstylez]

same thing that makes other people think that microsoft or sony will have the casual crowd with saggle or natal.

It's easier to attract a new fanbase then steal one from another company, Nintendo proved that themselves. They lost that crowd once the Playstation brand came about, they tried for 2 generations and couldn't do it, so within 1 generation they built up a whole new fanbase.

 

[Vinci]

It's easier to attract a new fanbase then steal one from another company, Nintendo proved that themselves. They lost that crowd once the Playstation brand came about, they tried for 2 generations and couldn't do it, so within 1 generation they built up a whole new fanbase.

It's especially hard with Live in place. Definitely MS's strongest card.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Nintendo didn't have the "enthusiast crowd" before the Wii, what makes you think they will have it afterward?

They had it with the NES and SNES. Sony had it with the PS1 and PS2 because the games moved there. The enthusiast crowd will go where the games that they want to play are, and if the console in question houses both audiences it will lean towards the types of domination that we saw with those for generations.

 

[Flachmatuch]

Those above statements go hand-in-hand with what I've been suggesting for a while now. For Nintendo to combine their console line with their strengths in the portable market. I suggest this by making a portable/console hybrid OR a universal media format that plays in both. The industry would be dumb not to support one platform that can reach BOTH the home & portable markets.

This would be a disruption on a new level. Doing something like this would help to eliminate a lot of invisible barriers that exist today:
-console vs portable
-casual vs core
-traditional controls vs new interfaces

They'd have to standerdize customizable controls across all games (I say BRING IT) to make it work. I suggest this mainly because the DS will likely have a replacement in line before the Wii will, a new portable coming within the next few years would not dirrectly hurt Wii growth until the console version of that platform is made and also because overall, portable gaming is on an uptick (especially vs console gaming in Japan) and doing something like this helps tear down the price/platform entry level barriers for new users just like DS & Wii did with controls/interface barriers.

This is not at all how Nintendo thinks imo. This is a technology driven idea that with basically no relevance to gameplay, so Sony (especially with Ken hehe) or even MS would be much more likely to go this way. I don't really think it's a good idea either - those "invisible barriers" are there for a reason. The PSP has shown in a negative way that console and handheld games are different and handheld stuff is not just console gaming on a smaller screen. Pokemon and similar local community stuff (especially MH) have demonstrated this in a more positive fashion. Casual / child / core audiences are also different. Different interfaces, different controllers, different content types and different services are needed for the different audiences (just think of how kid-safe XBL is ).

 

[mysticstylez]

They had it with the NES and SNES. Sony had it with the PS1 and PS2 because the games moved there. The enthusiast crowd will go where the games that they want to play are, and if the console in question houses both audiences it will lean towards the types of domination that we saw with those for generations.

They didn't have the competition in the NES/SNES days that they do now, when that competition came with Sony, and Microsoft, Nintendo lost it.

2-4 Wiimotes, 2-4 Nunchuks, 2-4 Motion Plus and a Balance Board will really help people gravitate towards Nintendo's next-gen console, if it is backwards compatible.

Just as it would if the other 2 have backwards compatible peripherals.

 

[felipeko]

Nintendo didn't have the "enthusiast crowd" before the Wii, what makes you think they will have it afterward?

2-4 Wiimotes, 2-4 Nunchuks, 2-4 Motion Plus and a Balance Board will really help people gravitate towards Nintendo's next-gen console, if it is backwards compatible.

 

[dammitmattt]

I think Natal is interesting, but I don't see what the hell it's doing there. It seems really ill-timed and more of a kneejerk response to me than anything else. Should've just saved it for the launch of their next system; it's going to be next to impossible to change the 360's inertia at this point, likely harder than Nintendo altering the Wii's current trajectory.

But what if Natal IS their next system, ala the Gamecube -> Wii transition, only this time with full support for both traditional 360 and Natal games going forward?

It's looking more and more likely that this is Microsoft's plan.

2-4 Wiimotes, 2-4 Nunchuks, 2-4 Motion Plus and a Balance Board will really help people gravitate towards Nintendo's next-gen console, if it is backwards compatible.

The same could be said for all systems.

 

[d[-_-]b]

2-4 Wiimotes, 2-4 Nunchuks, 2-4 Motion Plus and a Balance Board will really help people gravitate towards Nintendo's next-gen console, if it is backwards compatible.

I was going to point that out, that the "fanbase" buying into the Wii isn't magically going to buy into another console once they've invested in it. Spend $50 max on a new game or $200 (Arcade) + Cost of Natal? or $399 + Cost of Wands?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Honestly, I'm confused and very curious about the Vitality Sensor. I agree that Nintendo has something in mind though; they probably showed it this E3 to get the mocking and 'WTF' responses out of the way.

I haven't a fucking clue as to what the plan is with the Vitality Sensor either. With Nintendo's recent track record though, I can't help but assume that it will be something captivating when they finally show it to the public.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Yeah.... no...

Some people will never accept that the Wii's success is due to anything more than a simplistic marketing trick. It'll be a fad past 200 million sold.

 

[mysticstylez]

I was going to point that out, that the "fanbase" buying into the Wii isn't magically going to buy into another console once they've invested in it. Spend $50 max on a new game or $200 (Arcade) + Cost of Natal? or $399 + Cost of Wands?

The same people that spend 90 bucks on an exercise game, won't buy into another console? Nintendo themselves proved that the market they have no has the money to buy all these things, they'll buy them again.

 

[Vinci]

But what if Natal IS their next system, ala the Gamecube -> Wii transition, only this time with full support for both traditional 360 and Natal games going forward?

It's looking more and more likely that this is Microsoft's plan.

Then it's a bad plan, IMO. I've heard it batted around before, but I think Microsoft is going to be hard pressed - significantly hard pressed - in getting casuals onboard beyond or even nearing what Nintendo has accomplished. Think about all these companies, all the 3rd parties that have tried and failed to capture the casual audience on the Wii - a product the casual crowd is clearly excited about ... Do you honestly think MS can do what they've all failed to do? That they have the marketing savvy or the design chops?

MS's strategy is the same as a hefty linebacker: Charge through the middle using brunt force. They're not a suave company.

 

[d[-_-]b]

Some people will never accept that the Wii's success is due to anything more than a simplistic marketing trick. It'll be a fad past 200 million sold.

Oh one of those people... so when do you think this fad will be over......

 

[Flachmatuch]

I'm not so much saying that Nintendo has to necessarily change how it functions as a company, but it needs to keep doing what they've been doing - and that's innovate, attack new markets, etc. and so on. Expanding the marketplace is really the talent they have that I don't think Microsoft can duplicate, though MS could likely pull a Sony and simply co-opt whatever Nintendo does that works.

Thankfully they're so bad even at coopting that it takes generations of products for them to succeed. They usually succeed eventually though.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Nintendo needs to remain unpredictable - though it's possible that the inherent differences between the two might make it impossible for MS to predict them anyway.

In that case, aren't you just stating the obvious? It's always an advantage to be unpredictable But MS does not need to predict anything (and, seriously, they can't, they don't have vision even in their own core competencies), they just need to keep doing what they've always done - copying products and muscling out competition. Entertainment is different though because it's "low level", they can't get large government contracts for providing entertainment software (as they can with a lot of other functions), so they finally need to make products that do appeal to actual consumers.

They'll never need to. Nintendo's not going to be in trouble for a while. Even if they went brain dead all of next generation - which I doubt - they'd survive and live on for another two or three. My concern about Nintendo vs. Microsoft comes into play in the very, very long-term.

I never said they would. My point was that they'd be bailed out even in that case.

I meant in both a business and physical sense. Movements are hard to predict and especially hard for a large corporation to shift gears to accommodate before damage is done. In the physical sense, people are having to work as hard as ever - and there's an increasing interest by planners to push more and more cities away from individual transit and more towards public transportation whatever shape that might come in. This is only going to increase the desire for mobile entertainment and information devices.

That's in the very long term though, decades if not longer. There aren't many signs for that in the US, even with Obama :-/

 

[Opiate]

Obviously I don't think I so, especially if they can market it as well as Nintendo did with the Wii...Get a few pretty faces and some old hags to make testimonials and Walla! you've got a seller.

Yes, it's clearly that simple. That's why so many companies have been able to instantly copy Wii Sports/Wii Fit and achieve 20 Million sellers like Nintendo has. It's why Lips sold as well as Singstar.

Removing the sarcasm, if it's so easy, why haven't more people done it? It's cheap and produces massive financial success. Everyone can make a AAA hardcore game. I can't think of a major publisher that doesn't produce at least one such franchise: Take 2, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, EA, Activision, Konami, SquareSoft, Capcom... companies that range widely in size and culture. Everyone can make big hardcore games, but no one but Nintendo has succeeded profoundly with their casual titles. Making blockbuster casual titles is clearly more challenging than making a new God of War, Call of Duty or Resident Evil. I have little faith in Microsoft's ability to approach this audience succesfully.

I certainly could be wrong, of course, but it seems likely they will fail when so few have succeeded.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

They didn't have the competition in the NES/SNES days that they do now, when that competition came with Sony, and Microsoft, Nintendo lost it.

What are you talking about. Sega was massively competitive from 1989-1994. NOA had to shift a lot of philosophies to compete.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7nsBoqJ6s8&fmt=18

 

[Flachmatuch]

But what if Natal IS their next system, ala the Gamecube -> Wii transition, only this time with full support for both traditional 360 and Natal games going forward?

It's looking more and more likely that this is Microsoft's plan.

Well they most probably won't be able to launch with anything as good as Wii Sports, so I'd be quite happy about that :-D

 

[d[-_-]b]

The same people that spend 90 bucks on an exercise game, won't buy into another console? Nintendo themselves proved that the market they have no has the money to buy all these things, they'll buy them again.

So you're telling they are willing to buy another console instead of using the current console they have? I'm pretty sure the enthusiast crowd is more likely to pick up another console before the casuals are...

What are you talking about. Sega was massively competitive from 1989-1994. NOA had to shift a lot of philosophies to compete.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7nsBoqJ6s8&fmt=18

Clearly he seems to be living in an alternate reality...

 

[mysticstylez]

Well they most probably won't be able to launch with anything as good as Wii Sports, so I'd be quite happy about that :-D

So you're telling they are willing to buy another console instead of using the current console they have? I'm pretty sure the enthusiast crowd is more likely to pick up another console before the casuals are...

Not when you have kids crying to their mommy and daddy to buy it for them.

 

[d[-_-]b]

Not when you have kids crying to their mommy and daddy to buy it for them.

Lol the expanded audience doesn't consist of children... altogether, I should stop generalizing...

 

[tinfoilhatman]

This will only happen if MS plans to fund all game development themselves. A massive rise in development cost would kill even more of these companies. They'll either go short of 'bleeding edge' or they'll be forced to pay for everything. Do you honestly think all of these companies could survive another transition like this one?

IMO The next jump in pure HP will be close to what happened this gen, but the next jump won't include a resolution increase, they will stick with 1080p which was a\the major factor in the huge increase in development costs for this gen. The power for the next gen will be used for motion controls, AA, 3D better frame rates ect these things don't necessary cause a huge increase in devl costs.

 

[Flachmatuch]

Anyone that thinks Microsoft is going to release 360 1.5 as their next console is disillusional and wishful thinking for Nintendo.

Microsoft can't afford not to go big and knows that in order to keep the hard core games crowd they have to be bleeding edge graphics technology, that they need to keep continuity between PC horsepower and console horsepower in order to re leverage technology.

This is something Nintendo will never be able to compete with from a R&D and pure cost\risk perspective to think otherwise is ignorant.

Except a) that kind technology will be a commodity they can buy as easily as MS or Sony; b) this would probably lead to an even further rise in development costs, which is probably not good even for the largest publishers and c) simply adding technology will definitely not increase market size enough, seeing how the tech-oriented part of the market is not really growing.

 

[Jokeropia]

It's easier to attract a new fanbase then steal one from another company, Nintendo proved that themselves. They lost that crowd once the Playstation brand came about, they tried for 2 generations and couldn't do it, so within 1 generation they built up a whole new fanbase.

That's a myth. The Wii userbase is made up of largely the same people as the PS2 userbase. NPD has released data showing that ~71% of US Wii owners also had PS2's.

You're dodging the issue. See Opiate's post.

 

[Vinci]

IMO The next jump in pure HP will be close to what happened this gen, but the next jump won't include a resolution increase, they will stick with 1080p which was a\the major factor in the huge increase in development costs for this gen. The power for the next gen will be used for motion controls, AA, 3D better frame rates ect these things don't necessary cause a huge increase in devl costs.

Then why is Ubisoft stating that next-gen costs could balance out around $60 million for bigger titles? The more competition for the hardcore's dollars, the more expensive it's going to get. [See this gen's hardware pricing with MS and Sony going for the same market.]

 

[Flachmatuch]

http://i279.photobucket.com/albums/kk153/asIwalkalongIwonder/Animation4.gif

I don't get it...do you think that just because it's a simple game, it wasn't a really important reason in the Wii's success? Or do you think that since it's technically simple, anyone could recreate it?

IMO The next jump in pure HP will be close to what happened this gen, but the next jump won't include a resolution increase, they will stick with 1080p which was a\the major factor in the huge increase in development costs for this gen. The power for the next gen will be used for motion controls, AA, 3D better frame rates ect these things don't necessary cause a huge increase in devl costs.

Except none of those features (except motion controls, which have no relation to hardware power) mean anything for the average consumer. Seriously :-D For a new product you need new features. Even HD turned out to be quite unimportant, do you think people will buy a new console for 60FPS? Really?

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Except a) that kind technology will be a commodity they can buy as easily as MS or Sony; b) this would probably lead to an even further rise in development costs, which is probably not good even for the largest publishers and c) simply adding technology will definitely not increase market size enough, seeing how the tech-oriented part of the market is not really growing.

So your saying Nintendo is going to sell their next console for a huge losses in order to get their hardware out the door and into consumers hands?


The average consumer doesn't buy shit for games, just look at the attach rate for an average 360 title versus an average Wii title.

 

[Omar Ismail]

Then it's a bad plan, IMO. I've heard it batted around before, but I think Microsoft is going to be hard pressed - significantly hard pressed - in getting casuals onboard beyond or even nearing what Nintendo has accomplished. Think about all these companies, all the 3rd parties that have tried and failed to capture the casual audience on the Wii - a product the casual crowd is clearly excited about ... Do you honestly think MS can do what they've all failed to do? That they have the marketing savvy or the design chops?

Actually, this is one of Microsoft's biggest advantages and why it's so hard to compete with them.

They're not good at innovating (XBL excepted) but they ARE good with copying, refining and improving.

What this means is that Xbox Natal WILL be better than the Wii in pretty much all aspects (design, marketing, etc). So the hope for Nintendo is through innovation. For Nintendo to maintain top spot they need to be constantly innovating and coming up with new things that break new ground. This is the approach that Apple has taken to great success.

And hell, even with Apple Microsoft is becoming much smarter. Instead of taking 5 years to do a poor job of copying Apple, they're taking 2 years to do a good job of copying Apple. In another 10 years maybe they'll be neck and neck.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

So your saying Nintendo is going to sell their next console for a huge losses in order to get their hardware out the door and into consumers hands?

wat

Could you explain what you said there? I'm not getting your logic.

 

[Flachmatuch]

So your saying Nintendo is going to sell their next console for a huge losses in order to get their hardware out the door and into consumers hands?

Not at all. I don't know if MS will do that either. I just pointed out that your arguments about R&D costs not being affordable to Nintendo and consumers needing "bleeding edge graphics technology" did not really work. The first because they'll be able to buy the technology from technology companies, the second because the current market shows that "bleeding edge graphics" is not that important.

The average consumer doesn't buy shit for games, just look at the attach rate for an average 360 title versus an average Wii title.

The attach rate of a title is the number of consoles you buy for it? That's a bit higher with the Wii.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

wat

Could you explain what you said there? I'm not getting your logic.

If your going to argue that Nintendo is going to go head to head with Microsoft next generation on a R&D and technology stand point they have 2 options

A. Sell the console at huge losses for the first couple years, not something Nintendo is willing to do.

B. Sell the console for what it's actually worth and charge 600$ ala Sony this generation

 

[kame-sennin]

I think this is the shortest post I've ever seen from you. Didn't know what I was looking at until I saw the filename though. How old are you anyway?

Yea, it's hard to find an Ali vs. Foreman pic where George is getting knocked out and it's still obvious who is who. I'm 25 btw.

Two Words:
Project Natal

Vinci already said this, but Microsoft doesn't have the "talent" to make it a success. When I say 'talent', I mean the ability to create software that excites the expanded audience. First party games like Kameo and Banjo have not come anywhere near the sales or mind-share of Nintendo's all-audience games. Microsoft can not depend on third parties either. The two most successful motion control games not made by Nintendo would be Carnival Games and EA sports active (please correct me if I am missing a big one). And yet, those two titles will not come close to the sales of Wii Sports or Wii Fit. So who is going to make the killer app for Natal?

Edit: I see that Opiate has made the same point as well. Since everyone seems to be in consensus, I feel compelled to provide a counter-argument :lol

The one game we seem to be overlooking is Guitar Hero. That is a mega-hit with the expanded audience on the level of a Wii Fit or a Wii Sports. Of course, this game will not catapult Natal to success, but it shows that there are developers outside of Nintendo with the ability to penetrate the expanded audience. That means that there is a chance for Microsoft or another third party to stumble upon the Natal killer app, and make that platform a serious rival for Nintendo. I still stand by the first comment I made, but it is certainly possible that Natal can be the Genesis to Wii's NES.

 

[Vinci]

What this means is that Xbox Natal WILL be better than the Wii in pretty much all aspects (design, marketing, etc).

It's not about the hardware. MS has their motion control device but selling it with software is another matter entirely, and the biggest mystery is "What does Nintendo do that makes its software top of the tier while everyone else's collapses?" Sure, we'll have analysts and even some game developers tell us why they think Wii Sports is now the best selling game of all time, but yet none can reproduce the results. Which tells me the components they're focusing on either aren't right or are just the tip of the iceberg.

So the hope for Nintendo is through innovation. For Nintendo to maintain top spot they need to be constantly innovating and coming up with new things that break new ground. This is the approach that Apple has taken to great success.

Agreed. For the long-term, innovation is Nintendo's greatest card to play.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I don't think even Nintendo really knows what they're doing with the vitality sensor.

Iwata just sort of came out at E3 and went "Well, here's this thing...yeah." and left.

Maybe it was just because this was the first E3 since 2005 where they didn't really have a new peripheral to show off, so they had to do something.

 

[AceBandage]

Vinci already said this, but Microsoft doesn't have the "talent" to make it a success. When I say 'talent', I mean the ability to create software that excites the expanded audience. First party games like Kameo and Banjo have not come anywhere near the sales or mind-share of Nintendo's all-audience games. Microsoft can not depend on third parties either. The two most successful motion control games not made by Nintendo would be Carnival Games and EA sports active (please correct me if I am missing a big one). And yet, those two titles will not come close to the sales of Wii Sports or Wii Fit. So who is going to make the killer app for Natal?

I think an even bigger problem MS faces is even convincing them that Natal works.
Unlike Nintendo's "Playing is Believing" those that have played Natal have walked away feeling that it was a neat idea, but a bad execution.

 

[Flachmatuch]

Yea, it's hard to find an Ali vs. Foreman pic where George is getting knocked out and it's still obvious who is who. I'm 25 btw.



Vinci already said this, but Microsoft doesn't have the "talent" to make it a success. When I say 'talent', I mean the ability to create software that excites the expanded audience. First party games like Kameo and Banjo have not come anywhere near the sales or mind-share of Nintendo's all-audience games. Microsoft can not depend on third parties either. The two most successful motion control games not made by Nintendo would be Carnival Games and EA sports active (please correct me if I am missing a big one). And yet, those two titles will not come close to the sales of Wii Sports or Wii Fit. So who is going to make the killer app for Natal?

Edit: I see that Opiate has made the same point as well. Since everyone seems to be in consensus, I feel compelled to provide a counter-argument :lol

It's just way too obvious, I made the same arguments in one (errr...more) of the first Natal threads :-D Just looking at MS' history is enough.

 

[Evlar]

Nintendo's greatest trump-card is and will always be their stable of IPs and development teams who know how to use them. This may not keep them on top but may keep them perpetually profitable and retain a portion of the marketshare that's unassailable by Microsoft or anyone else.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

:/

This discussion has become very frustrating. Neither Microsoft nor SONY has given any indication that they even understand Nintendo's disruptive advantage (lol, Project Natal), let alone how to co-opt it. Nothing has been observed to project the kinds of things some of you are projecting. Until we see the competition's strategy in effect (if it may indeed may be called a "strategy," and not a too-little-too-late gimmick), the only thing we can project is that Nintendo will continue to expand its audience while at the same time producing sustaining innovation after sustaining innovation to take that audience further and further upmarket.

Wii is suffering from a decline momentum, but that's because of the things I and many others have said earlier: a lack of compelling motion-control software. I don't know how some of you have extrapolated from this the idea that Microsoft will "muscle" their way into leadership next-generation, if there is a Microsoft next-generation or if there is a next-generation at all. At the very least, we have to wait a bit longer to make such projections.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

I think an even bigger problem MS faces is even convincing them that Natal works.
Unlike Nintendo's "Playing is Believing" those that have played Natal have walked away feeling that it was a neat idea, but a bad execution.

Really because thats contrary to 90% of the E3 and post E3 hands on reports.

To me the difference in natel and what everyone else is doing is that I can use it in combination with a regular\standard controller or in combination with some kind of Wii mote style motion controller, people seem to overlook this for some reason.

 

[Vinci]

I don't think even Nintendo really knows what they're doing with the vitality sensor.

Iwata just sort of came out at E3 and went "Well, here's this thing...yeah." and left.

Maybe it was just because this was the first E3 since 2005 where they didn't really have a new peripheral to show off, so they had to do something.

I'm doubting it. They don't produce hardware of any kind without having something in mind for it. Read the Iwata Asks on the Motion+ and see the huge range of tests and such they had to do to make it work.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

This is not at all how Nintendo thinks imo. This is a technology driven idea that with basically no relevance to gameplay, so Sony (especially with Ken hehe) or even MS would be much more likely to go this way. I don't really think it's a good idea either - those "invisible barriers" are there for a reason. The PSP has shown in a negative way that console and handheld games are different and handheld stuff is not just console gaming on a smaller screen. Pokemon and similar local community stuff (especially MH) have demonstrated this in a more positive fashion. Casual / child / core audiences are also different. Different interfaces, different controllers, different content types and different services are needed for the different audiences (just think of how kid-safe XBL is ).

I'm gonna take your PSP example and run with it. It's good for your argument, but what did those console-like portable games do? They required the PSP buyer to buy a 2ND (portable) version of the same game they already had on their console in order to be successful. That isn't just saying they're the same game and that's why nobody buys it, it's more that they had pay twice to be able to play it at home or on the go.

With a universal format (or a less likely portable/console hybrid) only ONE game needs to be made/bought to reach BOTH markets.

Yes, the markets are different in content, audience & controls. However, with things like iPhone and digital distribution and such, those differences are less and less.

Granted, some games are more tuned to be handheld games or home games, but there is A LOT of crossover and that crossover (as portable gaming catches up to home gaming) is increasing. The examples of PokeMon & Monster Hunter you give (social RPG's) have not translated (yet) well to the home front...but with what I've suggested they likely can and will.

And there is relevance to gameplay, especially for RPG's. Imagine such an RPG where the grinding/levling up is made less tedious by allowing the player to do it anytime and anywhere (on the portable) and then take that SAME game and plug it into their home theater set-up to enjoy the story advancing elements of the game at home.

The competition could do something like it too, but if Nintendo just burst out the first to do it and with their unbreakable history in the portable market the disruption will have already been done and the support will have already been instantly garnered. It would take there portable strengths and combine it with their lacking console support to create another new psuedo console & portable market. Gaming anytime, anywhere. One game, both markets. Less platform confussion, more value.

 

[Flachmatuch]

Actually, this is one of Microsoft's biggest advantages and why it's so hard to compete with them.

They're not good at innovating (XBL excepted) but they ARE good with copying, refining and improving.

What this means is that Xbox Natal WILL be better than the Wii in pretty much all aspects (design, marketing, etc). So the hope for Nintendo is through innovation. For Nintendo to maintain top spot they need to be constantly innovating and coming up with new things that break new ground. This is the approach that Apple has taken to great success.

And hell, even with Apple Microsoft is becoming much smarter. Instead of taking 5 years to do a poor job of copying Apple, they're taking 2 years to do a good job of copying Apple. In another 10 years maybe they'll be neck and neck.

You're completely wrong. They're not good at copying, it always takes them several product generations to get the point. They have muscle and stamina though and eventually produce "good enough" stuff (that's still often inferior to competition). And seriously, MS should be awesome at OS' and GUIs, and they're still really bad at it, after twenty years or so.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

if there is a Microsoft next-generation or if there is a next-generation at all. At the very least, we have to wait a bit longer to make such projections.

lol please pass the coolaid


You seriously believe there is ANY chance whatsoever that Microsoft won't make another gaming console after the 360?

please explain

 

[Vinci]

This discussion has become very frustrating. Neither Microsoft nor SONY has given any indication that they even understand Nintendo's disruptive advantage (lol, Project Natal), let alone how to co-opt it. Nothing has been observed to project the kinds of things some of you are projecting. Until we see the competition's strategy in effect (if it may indeed may be called a "strategy," and not a too-little-too-late gimmick), the only thing we can project is that Nintendo will continue to expand its audience while at the same time producing sustaining innovation after sustaining innovation to take that audience further and further upmarket.

Because honestly, man, Nintendo hasn't done anything really aggressive recently. Short of Wii Sports and Wii Fit, and now WSR, they've done next to nothing to take advantage of the new paradigm they've put into motion. I'm thinking they're simply too conservative to go headlong into it in a single gen (and are saving their Big Bang) for the next, or they're completely confused themselves as to what the hell to do next.

Wii is suffering from a decline momentum, but that's because of the things I and many others have said earlier: a lack of compelling motion-control software. I don't know how some of you have extrapolated from this discussion the idea that Microsoft will "muscle" their way into leadership next-generation, if there is a Microsoft next-generation or if there is a next-generation at all. At the very least, we have to wait a bit longer to make such projections.

I think MS could very well take the top spot next-gen. You don't. We can discuss this. I personally think it's equally uncertain to pronounce that small or new 3rd parties will turn into the EAs of the future merely from supporting the Wii and following the values its established. In essence, I don't think Nintendo's disruption is 100% stable and going as planned - largely due to a serious bias against working with Nintendo on the part of many companies, the fact that they're facing a company that doesn't give a damn how much money it loses to win, and Nintendo's own conservative nature (which is both a blessing and a curse).

 

[Grampa Simpson]

If your going to argue that Nintendo is going to go head to head with Microsoft next generation on a R&D and technology stand point they have 2 options

A. Sell the console at huge losses for the first couple years, not something Nintendo is willing to do.

B. Sell the console for what it's actually worth and charge 600$ ala Sony this generation

Why would anyone make a console that costs more $250 to manufacture ever again? A desire to lose a lot money to gain a little marketshare? Don't get me wrong. As a Nintendo fan, I'd love to see Sony and Microsoft fuck up on that level again, but I just don't see it happening. The only way that we'll see $600 consoles again is if the US Dollar goes completely in the shitter. Actually, with the way the Federal Reserve seems to have been printing money, that may just happen.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Why would anyone make a console that costs more $250 to manufacture ever again? A desire to lose a lot money to gain a little marketshare? Don't get me wrong. As a Nintendo fan, I'd love to see Sony and Microsoft fuck up on that level again, but I just don't see it happening. The only way that we'll see $600 consoles again is if the US Dollar goes completely in the shitter. Actually, with the way the Federal Reserve seems to have been printing money, that may just happen.

Please explain to us how Microsoft "f'd up" this generation and why they should do anything different next gen?(besides avoid the whole RROD ordeal hopefully they learned their lesson on going cheap there) Last time I checked they were making plenty of money off of the 360 and games sales not to mention all the intangible benifts of having the 360 out there in peoples living rooms. For Christs sake their able to sell the 360 cheaper than the Wii and still make money.


Do you REALLY believe what your saying or are you just wishful thinking as a Nintendo fan?

 

[Flachmatuch]

I'm gonna take your PSP example and run with it. It's good for your argument, but what did those console-like portable games do? They required the PSP buyer to buy a 2ND (portable) version of the same game they already had on their console in order to be successful. That isn't just saying they're the same game and that's why nobody buys it, it's more that they had pay twice to be able to play it at home or on the go.

With a universal format (or a less likely portable/console hybrid) only ONE game needs to be made/bought to reach BOTH markets.

Yes, the markets are different in content, audience & controls. However, with things like iPhone and digital distribution and such, those differences are less and less.

Granted, some games are more tuned to be handheld games or home games, but there is A LOT of crossover and that crossover (as portable gaming catches up to home gaming) is increasing. The examples of PokeMon & Monster Hunter you give (social RPG's) have not translated (yet) well to the home front...but with what I've suggested they likely can and will.

And there is relevance to gameplay, especially for RPG's. Imagine such an RPG where the grinding/levling up is made less tedious by allowing the player to do it anytime and anywhere (on the portable) and then take that SAME game and plug it into their home theater set-up to enjoy the story advancing elements of the game at home.

The competition could do something like it too, but if Nintendo just burst out the first to do it and with their unbreakable history in the portable market the disruption will have already been done and the support will have already been instantly garnered. It would take there portable strengths and combine it with their lacking console support to create another new psuedo console & portable market. Gaming anytime, anywhere. One game, both markets. Less platform confussion, more value.

There actually isn't "A LOT" of (or even significant) crossover. The most successful franchises on home consoles and portables are really quite different. Pokemon doesn't translate well to the home console because it's designed for portable play, to be played by kids with each other in classrooms in breaks. MH is the same for a different audience. This is imo a neat technology-driven idea, but it's not something that's consistent with the way Nintendo think, imo.

 

[Pureauthor]

Please explain to us how Microsoft "f'd up" this generation and why they should do anything different next gen....well besides avoid the whole RROD ordeal hopefully they learned their lesson their.


Do you REALLY believe what your saying or are you just wishful thinking as a Nintendo fan?

MS "f'd" up in the sense of continuing to encourage higher-end development in videogames (a criticism that can also be passed to Sony) and it is now painfully clear that the market (and the businesses) are not prepared to adapt to such a state of development.