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The next Nintendo handheld should be a controller for iOS and Android
- Thread starter Dr_Boris_Goltz
- Start date
TitusGroan
Banned
The PS3's R&D costs sunk Sony money, but their sales turnaround was a success.
The market has shrunk, but that doesn't mean it's going to keep endlessly shrinking. The 3DS was launched into a world where iPhones and tablets already existed, and has still managed to carve out 45 million+ sales so far, with room for more sales infuture. Even if we're conservative and say it ends its life on around 60 million sales, that still puts it in line with the original Gameboy, which is not a bad place to be.
Smartphones have taken their chunk out of the handheld market. If Nintendo could still sell this many handhelds this time round, there's no reason to think they couldn't next time as well. Software drives hardware.
1st Course
Member
The original Gameboy has a lifetime sales of 118.69m
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html
We don't know what the game scene will be in 10 years, but generally speaking it's not wise to keep investing in a shrinking market. Smartphones are only going to get more and more popular with time as adoption rates continue to climb in emerging markets like India,China etc. The competition is only going to get tougher going forward.
IrishNinja
Member
And god bless him, this idea's booty
thecoolFNF
Member
EW hell no
The12thGripper
Member
funny joke
LouisaFerre
Member
My main concern is that Nintendo will not be able to compete in the mobile space with the same pricing model that they are currently using. Part of the reason people play games on smartphones instead of dedicated consoles is that there are a large number of more casual games that satisfy those people on an extremely low cost or even F2P business model. If Nintendo just goes there and charges 20-30 dollars for original games, they're probably not going to get many of the more casual players who are already unwilling to get dedicated hardware, which would make the whole thing pointless. There's also the problem of why they would even want to buy into the controller attachment, since they'd need to pay money essentially just to have a chance to buy these games, all at a higher price than they are used to. Unless Nintendo completely changes their business model(and I don't think I want it going in that direction at all) or only makes mobile ports, I don't think they'd be able to take advantage of the larger audience on smartphones.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Take advantage of the mobile userbase by slicing it in to a fraction of a fraction.
Solve the issue of people not taking out multiple pieces of hardware by forcing them to take out multiple pieces of hardware.
Introduce new, significant cuts to your revenue by having a middleman when there previously was not one.
Jump headfirst in to an ecosystem where higher prices are shunned and the best path to profitability is exploitation with new, unnecessary hardware.
Yep, sounds like a message board solution, alright.
Solve the issue of people not taking out multiple pieces of hardware by forcing them to take out multiple pieces of hardware.
Introduce new, significant cuts to your revenue by having a middleman when there previously was not one.
Jump headfirst in to an ecosystem where higher prices are shunned and the best path to profitability is exploitation with new, unnecessary hardware.
Yep, sounds like a message board solution, alright.
Doctoglethorpe
Member
I've never understood the appeal of using a gamepad with a tablet. Do you lay it in your lap? On a table? Do you get a stand and put it on a table in front of you so its not lying flat down? But what do you do when you're traveling, just lug a whole controller around everywhere? Why is it so complicated that I even need to ask? Just seems like a mess.
Should have been first and last post. Close the thread, we're done here. Bravo.
SystemUser
Member
118.69m includes Gameboy Color in addition to the original Gameboy. Gameboy Color was the current Gameboy version when Pokemon was at its peak. 118.69m is definitely not the number of original Gameboys sold.
Chinese and Indian Gameboy software sales were always weak due to piracy and most of the hardware was sold second hand. Nintendo has never banked on selling in Asia other than Japan. They have tried to get into China, but the West/Japan has always dwarfed their Asian profits by an extreme amount.
Fun fact: with the exception of the Wii and the DS, every Nintendo home console has sold worse than the previous one and every Nintendo handheld has sold worse than the previous one. What reason is there to believe that Nintendo's next handheld will sell as well as the 3DS?
Excellent post. Highlights every problem with this idea
1st Course
Member
Sorry, should've had worded it better. My point is that bigger smartphone install base = more developers developing for mobile and neglecting handhelds. Even if Nintendo don't make much from emerging markets, this doesn't mean smartphones penetration there doesn't affect them.
Ollie Pooch
In a perfect world, we'd all be homersexual
That's because it wasn't.
Stupid idea, especially considering that the huge range of specs on people's phones could lead to all sorts of confusion about whether a game would actually run well or at all.
Some frankenstick device that somehow attaches to all types/sizes of phone (the alternative being to prop the phone up on a surface while you play said controller) isn't practical. Would you need one for iOS and one for Android, OP?
The reactions to the OP are quite amusing. Everyone here seems to think that we are the target market and thus if we don't like it then Nintendo shouldn't do it. I like my 3DS but I think everyone here is in denial.
Here's the first thing that you need to understand: the current cell phone subsidy model is absolutely destroying the market for other electronic devices. People have been conditioned to buy a brand new cell phone every two years for $200+ with a contract. Of course the actual cost of an iPhone 5S 16GB is $649, not $200. How do you possibly think that Nintendo can compete with their next portable with a $649 device that is being upgraded on a two year schedule? They can't! People wouldn't even buy the 3DS at $250 at launch! I bought one and maybe you did too but that wasn't enough. Nintendo simply can't build a $200 device that is competitive with a $649 device. Even if they could, they are soon competing with brand new $649 device in two years.
But the 3DS is doing great, right? Wrong. 3DS sales are falling off fast. This time last year they were moving more than 200k a week but now it is more like 100k. The DS sold over 150M units while the 3DS has only sold 45M. The 3DS's screen looks ancient next to an iPhone 5 and will look even worse when Apple launches their larger phones in a few months. Nintendo can't compete with a more expensive subsidized device that is on a two year upgrade cycle. It's over.
I recently spent a week in Tokyo. With 3DS street pass on I ran into a good number of people but in my whole time I saw only one 3DS being used. The subways were full of people either reading books or playing on their phones, not on their 3DS or PSV. Even in Japan I think it's over.
If you can't beat them, join them. If I were Nintendo, I would approach both Google and Apple and offer to release the entire Nintendo back catalogue over the course of several years, with a game or two a week. I would also offer to develop new games. All games would be compatible with a Nintendo branded controller, which would come bundled with one free downloadable Mario game and one free Zelda game. The catch for Google and Apple? Nintendo needs to be the only official game controller and Nintendo needs to get a better revenue sharing deal. If Google or Apple refuses, threaten to go to the other with an exclusive deal.
Of course I don't think Nintendo will do any of this but it's the only path that makes sense in my view.
Here's the first thing that you need to understand: the current cell phone subsidy model is absolutely destroying the market for other electronic devices. People have been conditioned to buy a brand new cell phone every two years for $200+ with a contract. Of course the actual cost of an iPhone 5S 16GB is $649, not $200. How do you possibly think that Nintendo can compete with their next portable with a $649 device that is being upgraded on a two year schedule? They can't! People wouldn't even buy the 3DS at $250 at launch! I bought one and maybe you did too but that wasn't enough. Nintendo simply can't build a $200 device that is competitive with a $649 device. Even if they could, they are soon competing with brand new $649 device in two years.
But the 3DS is doing great, right? Wrong. 3DS sales are falling off fast. This time last year they were moving more than 200k a week but now it is more like 100k. The DS sold over 150M units while the 3DS has only sold 45M. The 3DS's screen looks ancient next to an iPhone 5 and will look even worse when Apple launches their larger phones in a few months. Nintendo can't compete with a more expensive subsidized device that is on a two year upgrade cycle. It's over.
I recently spent a week in Tokyo. With 3DS street pass on I ran into a good number of people but in my whole time I saw only one 3DS being used. The subways were full of people either reading books or playing on their phones, not on their 3DS or PSV. Even in Japan I think it's over.
If you can't beat them, join them. If I were Nintendo, I would approach both Google and Apple and offer to release the entire Nintendo back catalogue over the course of several years, with a game or two a week. I would also offer to develop new games. All games would be compatible with a Nintendo branded controller, which would come bundled with one free downloadable Mario game and one free Zelda game. The catch for Google and Apple? Nintendo needs to be the only official game controller and Nintendo needs to get a better revenue sharing deal. If Google or Apple refuses, threaten to go to the other with an exclusive deal.
Of course I don't think Nintendo will do any of this but it's the only path that makes sense in my view.
Do you guys understand that not only does Nintendo get money for the games and hardware they sell, but also money from the other companies that sale games/accessories for their device? You're asking them to give up a ton of money to do this silly controller that's somehow going to fit all sizes and shapes of phones and magically be tiny enough for people to want to carry around in addition to their phone, plus develop games for all the different spec'd phones, etc.
Have you considered that Nintendo can develop a handheld that offers an experience that cell phones can't? That's part of the idea behind 2 screens and 3d and stuff. It's not easy but's it's certainly possible.
Nintendo has made a history of competing with more power devices. They'll manage.
The_Endgamer
Member
Spot on. While the idea in OP is good for consumers, for Nintendo it is a different story.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
GAF laughs at this thread, meanwhile this is the reality:
All I see here are a few weak excuses. There are really only a few different phone form factors left nowadays. People already carry around bulky cell phone cases with built in battery chargers. There are games nowadays that launch simultaneously on PC, PS3, XBox360, XBoxOne and PS4 so multiple spec'd phones is just an excuse. Dev tools have come a long way. I'm not asking them to do anything - either they preemptively do it or market forces will do it for them.
Have you considered that they can't? Sales trends are saying that consumers increasingly don't care about what the 3DS and PSV offer.
And history is full of failed companies with executives that said "we'll manage". Nintendo is losing money and market share.
GAF laughs at this thread, meanwhile this is the reality:
Exactly! And last year 1 Billion smart phones were sold!
So what you're saying is that sony should also be selling last of us on tablet and PC? I mean it's just a matter of "hitting a few buttons" after all. There are tools.
The future will be fun. I'm already starting to warm towards smartphones. It's inevitable that portable gaming will only continue to grow, while traditional will continue to fade into nothing.
Japanese market seems to agree with me. We just need more traditional games on smartphones.
Japanese market seems to agree with me. We just need more traditional games on smartphones.
Giving up all their licensing money is a "weak excuse?"
Except traditional games and smartphones generally don't mix.
That market currently does not support what you call "traditional games" at the price points that are required to make them. And no, inexpensive ports of games that have already made their "traditional" costs back via the "traditional" market do not count, as their cost was already sunk.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Bucket Mouse
Member
Nah mate.
It will be when nobody makes games for Nintendo's next system. How much licensing money do you think Nintendo makes on the WiiU? Even in Japan, when developers keep talking about focusing on mobile, they mean cell phones, not 3DS and Vita.
Yet we have monster hunter and final fantasy/dragon quest being released on smartphones. And what a fucking silly thing to say. So, just because they are ports, suddenly they don't fucking matter? It's almost as silly as saying that indie games don't matter/aren't games.
It doesn't matter if they don't sell like the juggernauts, they just need to exist as option there. They make decent money towards their developer. Make them support traditional/physical controllers too, to the niche who buys them.
Sooner you guys accept that tradional handhelds will die, the better.
Try thinking critically for a moment. Bigger budget games require higher prices. Higher prices don't work in the mobile market. So games with larger budgets have to be released into the traditional market to make back their bigger budget. A later port to a mobile device for 5 bucks is gravy for the publisher, but it isn't going to make enough to sell it standalone. Final fantasy already got produced and sold at its higher budget/price so the content was already there and could be ported to a lower priced platform like mobile. The scope of the project wouldn't have been as large had the game solely been mobile and sold for traditional mobile prices.
GAF laughs at this thread, meanwhile this is the reality:
Maybe they're laughing at what the OP is actually saying, not at the fact that the market is in trouble.
Just a thought.
Disagree.
- hardware competitors could effectively clone the Nintendo controller, meaning Nintendo couldn't really use it as a dongle
- controllers for phones have had horrible sellthrough, so there is no demonstrable precedent that the appetite is there
- you can't "bundle" mobile software with hardware easily in a way that doesn't violate Apple/Google terms and conditions
- you'd limit your market where you have no retail presence to sell/distribute the controllers
Nintendo don't need a dongle to be successful in mobile/tablet and not jeopardize their existing business. They just need to create unique experiences that are complementary to their existing offerings on their proprietary hardware.
Forget smartphones. Just look at tablets.
A Nexus 7 can be purchased for $200 at your local store. No contracts, no subsidy, just a flat price....which is about the same price as a 3DS XL.
The Nexus 7, however, sports a full HD screen, the latest SoC from Snapdragon, 2 GB of RAM, and the latest imaging sensors. Comparatively, the 3DS sports the exact same chip found in the original iPhone (yes, the first iPhone released in 2007), 128 MB of RAM, and extremely low resolution displays.
Performance isn't everything, but tablets sold back in 2011 were significantly more powerful than the 3DS. The 3DS sports ancient hardware, and Nintendo is selling these devices at around $200, so their profit of margin off each device has to be significant.
Smartphones are certainly eating into the handheld market, but tablets may pose even more of a threat. The Nexus 7 isn't even the cheapest device - Kindle Fires can be purchased for under $150.
I honestly don't know what the answer is for Nintendo's handheld business at this point, but I don't think it's a new dedicated handheld.
MoGamesXNA
Unconfirmed Member
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Ask yourself why a company like EA, Activision, SEGA, Capcom, etc who wouldn't have to worry about all the potential loses form stopping hardware development, hasn't banked on this great idea of smartphone periphrial + games? Each of these companies has hundreds of people thinking about all this stuff and they don't seem to think it's a winner.
For one the controller add on is just a bad idea. As nice as it sounds to gamers like us, people shunning dedicated handhelds in favor of smartphone gaming simply don't care. And two, the smartphone gaming market is different with different expectations, mostly in regards to pricing.
No one is ignoring the impact smartphones are having, or saying that Nintendo doesn't need to adjust what they're doing. But thinking that because handheld sales are on the decline and smartphones are all the rage therefore everyone should dump all efforts to be pawns for apple/android is really knee jerk and short-sighted.
