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The Official 2009 NPD Prediction Thread

[WII] 13,333,333
[NDS] 10,010,010
[360] 4,990,499
[PSP] 3,111,111
[PS3] 4,112,211
[PS2] 1,250,250


Interesting year, we'll see how the economy works on it.

ElectricBlue187 said:
WII -- 20,000,000 (who the fuck knows, really)
Click to expand...

Ladies and gentlemen, our first 20 MILLION PREDICTION! Will anybody go higher?!



I'll make my predictions in the coming days (haven't done a yearly prediction before). This year seems hard to predict, as we don't know the full effect the economy will have, and if Nintendo will get supplies steady or not.

I also think the PS3's performance hinges massively on a price drop. Without it, I'd say their sales drop even from last year and then the system begins to fade into irrelevance.
 
[WII] 14,500,000
[NDS] 9,200,000
[360] 5,600,000
[PSP] 5,200,000
[PS3] 4,400,000
[PS2] 950,000

Notes:

Wii is going to top 2008. The games selling it currently aren't going to stop doing their job; it's still supply constrained and we'll be seeing Wii Fit inspired sales of the system for the first nine months of 2009. At which time, Nintendo should have already released or be in the process of releasing the next wave of their titles. Some of the increased 3rd party games should make an impact with the core and get them onboard as well.

Lowballing the DS since I don't think people will take to the DSi quite as well as Japan has.

PS3 is going to be low; it would be helped at least with a one month spike if FF XIII could hit this year, but it won't. Not in NPD land.
 
Crazy...everyone expects Wii and DS sales higher than 10 million. It's like all the former record breaking sales in 07/08 weren't anything special at all.:lol
 
Neo C. said:
Crazy...everyone expects Wii and DS sales higher than 10 million. It's like all the former record breaking sales in 07/08 weren't anything special at all.:lol
Click to expand...
If Wii supply stays as high this year as last year, and sales don't taper off then they very well should hit at least 11 million units for the Wii. Some seem to think sales won't taper off, but will increase exponentially.

With the Wii... who the fuck knows?
 
Thunder Monkey said:
If Wii supply stays as high this year as last year, and sales don't taper off then they very well should hit at least 11 million units for the Wii. Some seem to think sales won't taper off, but will increase exponentially.

With the Wii... who the fuck knows?
Click to expand...

It's hard to predict the upward limit on 'Whatever the hell is produced.' Considering people have stated they think the Wii could've pulled 4 million in Dec 08 if Nintendo had the stock? I'd say there's room left.
 
[WII] 10,200,000
[NDS] 8,500,000
[360] 4,200,000
[PSP] 2,800,000
[PS3] 3,900,000
[PS2] 1,500,000

Notes:

I think the entire industry will contract in 09.

Wii: Xmas 2009 will be the same. It'll be hard to find a Wii. But, despite increased supply, you'll find Wii's sitting on shelves for (only slightly) longer than they did in 08.

NDS: It'll keep selling like nuts.

360: MS will keep making smart moves and have an amazing library but will be hurt by the economy.

PSP: Sony believes games like Resistance Retribution will sell more units. They're wrong. It'll ride out 09 in limp fashion and Sony may even announce a PSP2 for 2010.

PS3: Price cut will come and YoY sales will go up but it may be too late for the PS3. Killzone 2 will provide a jump in sales, but nothing like MGS4.

PS2: Probably a new bundle with 2 games but this is the last year it shows up on sales charts, and even then, just barely.
 
[WII]25,567,045
[NDS]10,410,001
[360]5,450,324
[PS2]2,305,021
[PSP]2,153,003
[CDI] 1,230 (new Burn:Cycle pack-in)
[3DO] 215
[JAG] 84
[CDI] 19 (no Burn:Cycle pack in and later the 19 people feel fucked about it)
[PS3]15
 
AlternativeUlster said:
[WII]25,567,045
[NDS]10,410,001
[360]5,450,324
[PS2]2,305,021
[PSP]2,153,003
[CDI] 1,230 (new Burn:Cycle pack-in)
[3DO] 215
[JAG] 84
[CDI] 19 (no Burn:Cycle pack in and later the 19 people feel fucked about it)
[PS3]15
Click to expand...

That's a quick way to get disqualified.
 
[360] 4,800,000 (I don't think it has that many expected games this year)
[NDS] 9,500,000 (DQ should help a lot in Japan, not sure about the USA though...)
[PS2] 2,600,000 (better sales than 2007 and 2008 thanks to the price drop)
[PS3] 4,500,000 (better sales than 2007 and 2008 thanks to GOW III, Killzone 2, etc..)
[PSP] 3,200,000
[WII] 9,800,000 (good sales but not as good as 2008. Wii Sports Resort should help though)
 
Reason for my predictions:

  • 360 - It did pretty poorly for the first eight months of 2008. I'm expecting the new price points to help it improve ~10%, despite the recession. Should do well over the holidays as usual.
  • PS3 - Lack of price cut in first half of the year continues the YoY declines started in November. Improves in the holidays with a price cut.
  • Wii - all up to supply. Guessing ~30% higher than 2008.
 
GhaleonEB said:
  • Wii - all up to supply. Guessing ~30% higher than 2008.
Click to expand...
How many Wiis does Nintendo produce at the moment? 2.4 million per month? As many as the DS? If that's the case, supply shouldn't be a problem except this month and perhaps next month.
 
[360] 5000k
[NDS] 9250k
[PS2] 1750k
[PS3] 4500k
[PSP] 3250k
[WII] 12250k

Assumptions:

WII - higher supply, and the demand is still there
360 - small price cut late in the year will ensure higher yoy
PS3 - $100 price cut this Spring
NDS - had its peak in 2008, will start the year strong though
PSP - less quality software and less demand
PS2 - slowly fading away
 
Neo C. said:
If that's the case, supply shouldn't be a problem except this month and perhaps next month.
Click to expand...

I expect Wiis to be fully out of shortage territory in the U.S. this year. Probably before the end of June. January will be pretty bad, though. Same as last year.
 
AlternativeUlster said:
Wait, do I get something if my predictions are correct? Well then:

[PS3]42,410,310
Click to expand...
reputation_pos.gif
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
(Today, 06:24 PM)

Am I doing this right?
 
[WII] 12,000,000
[NDS] 10,000,000
[360] 5,000,000
[PSP] 3,500,000
[PS3] 4,000,000
[PS2] 3,000,000

Wii should have better supply, a few more good games, and possibly a colour change? So we should see an increase.

DS could get thrown by the release of the DSi?

360 picked up momentum after the price drop. So I expect the momentum will continue. If we see ANOTHER price drop, then my figure could be low. We also see 2 Halo games this year, so it should definitely be a bit more than 08.

Not sure why I'm low balling the PSP. I just think it could die a slow death, especially if we see the DSi this year.

PS3 should sell more even without the price drop. But a price drop would definitely mean I need to raise my number a bit.

Predicting a price drop here so it'll go out with a bang.
 
My predictions:

[WII] 11,400,00
[NDS] 10,000,000
[360] 4,000,000
[PSP] 3,500,00
[PS3] 3,100,000
[PS2] 1,200,000

I think the Wii supply situation will stabilise sometime in Q3 '09 and we'll start to see the hardware reach maturity towards the end of the year. Nintendo will be able to manufacture more Wii hardware units and these will find their way into the hands of consumers. Expect Wii Motion+ to start the ball rolling for Q4 '09 after a comparative lull (and failing that, we'll new Wii console colours introduced for holiday '09 to stimulate sales).

The DS will still sell a whole bunch, with sales flagging for a while before exploding again with the release of the DSi. DSi customers will be less price sensitive than people expect.

PSP will remain stable, especially with Sony's yearly updates.

The Xbox 360 has peaked, especially given that it has already reached the "magical" $199 price point without a significant increase in sales. Expect the price to remain here as MS uses bundles or introduces new SKUs to improve the value of the SKU at that price point. If the PS3's price drops, however, the Xbox 360's price will drop by the same proportion (not the same dollar amount).

The PS3 has also peaked and price drops at this stage will not produce sustained sales. There's also the question of whether or not Sony is even in a position to drop the price. I predict either no price drop, or a late price drop of less than $50.

The PS2 will coast to 1.2 million, even as retailers slowly begin to phase it out. NPD will stop tracking it by 2010.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
The PS2 will coast to 1.2 million, even as retailers slowly begin to phase it out. NPD will stop tracking it by 2010.
Click to expand...
I don't think they ever really stop tracking anything. Stop giving it to the media in their summaries? Sure.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
You're probably right.
Click to expand...
Back when the NPD spreadsheet would leak regularly, we'd see some games and even hardware in the single digits. Though, they didn't stop reporting the original Xbox until it was in the single digit thousands, IIRC. Hopefully we get PS2 data all year.
 
[360] 5000K
[NDS] 9500K
[PS2] 3000K
[PS3] 3600K
[PSP] 3700K
[WII] 12000K

I'm starting to think that Sony can't afford to drop the price of the PS3 in April. However, they can afford to drop the price of the PS2. I'm thinking that they'll drop the price of the PS2 in April, claim "Playstation Brand" increased revenue through the year, and then drop the PS3 price in September, ala 360 in 2008. Total guessing there. :lol

The Wii will come out of shortages in June, and "only" sell 125K per week from then until September. The Wii will surpass PS2's Dec-02 record for the best month for a home console in the U.S. during Dec-09.
 
donny2112 said:
I expect Wiis to be fully out of shortage territory in the U.S. this year. Probably before the end of June. January will be pretty bad, though. Same as last year.
Click to expand...
After the insane last year, I want to think that nearly every household which desperately wants a Wii and has the money for it should already have one. Then again, 250$ aren't a lot, therefore the potential demand could be much higher than I would ever expect.

I guess this year is the ultimate test to see if this industry is recession proof or not. I know, Factor 5 and Free Radical, though by recession proof I mean if the industry still can grow.
 
Neo C. said:
though by recession proof I mean if the industry still can grow.
Click to expand...

I think Nintendo will continue to grow, but I'm not sure about the rest of the industry. If third-parties make a real push to ride some of Nintendo's wave, I think that would help the overall industry numbers some, though.
 
[360] 4,400,000 (I think the system has peaked. Though I do expect a higher base sales at the lower price. Won't last past April, though.)
[NDS] 11,500,000 (DSi will provide a big push mid- to late- year.)
[PS2] 1,700,000
[PS3] 5,100000 (Price cut mid-year)
[PSP] 3,600,000
[WII] 11,500,000
 
Neo C. said:
After the insane last year, I want to think that nearly every household which desperately wants a Wii and has the money for it should already have one. Then again, 250$ aren't a lot, therefore the potential demand could be much higher than I would ever expect.
Click to expand...
It's still more than Nintendo has ever charged before, though. This is the first time they can get a bump from a drop to $200.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
It's still more than Nintendo has ever charged before, though. This is the first time they can get a bump from a drop to $200.
Click to expand...
I know, and this fact underlines the insanity of this phenomenon. When a prediction of less than 10 million sales of a 250$ console in a time of a probably long-during recession is called conservative, then you know that the market has changed.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
It's still more than Nintendo has ever charged before, though. This is the first time they can get a bump from a drop to $200.
Click to expand...

Maybe, but why bother when it's still selling like hotcakes and demand continues to outstrip supply?
 
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