EzLink said:
Yeah, I'm sure this is the best advice I'll be able to get on the problem.
I assume from some of your comments that you're still quite young. One of the most important things you need to understand is that you'll survive this--whether you end up returning to Christianity or not. I think what you're going through is just a natural part of becoming your own person, rather than merely accepting what your parents tell you. I went through the same process, and I can only guess that everyone else does, too (though perhaps not to the same degree as those who have to question everything they've based their lives on). So, just accept that this is something you have to go through, understand that you will get through it, and realize that you'll be a stronger person on the other side of it. I clearly don't know your parents, but I would definitely consider opening up to them about what you're going through--unless they're crazy or stupid, they'll probably be able to offer you some wise counsel even without paying for a therapist.
gerg said:
In any case, talking about what the "denominator" would be in order to work out the mathematical probability for the conditions of life is generally side-stepping another main fault of anthropomorphic arguments, which is that they make the logical leap from "highly improbable" to "impossible".
Well, that may be true. If the claim is that it's impossible because it's improbable, then clearly they're making that leap. If the claim is that it's simply impossible, then there isn't that leap. Of course, they would still have to prove the impossibility.
My questions about how to fix the denominator had to do with whether we should paint one side of the die blue. Obviously, we want to know the probability of there arising a planet with the conditions necessary to sustain life. The argument is that such a planet is either so highly improbable or impossible that no such planet would ever arise by chance, and so any that exists must have been intentionally created. So, we want to know what is the probability of such a planet being formed by chance. The die represents chance--each side being one actual possibility. If it is impossible for a planet with the conditions necessary to sustain life to arise by chance, then it is not an actual possibility, and so we shouldn't paint one side of the die blue. On the other hand, if there is no God and so whatever does exist must have arisen by chance, then of course we have to paint one side of the die blue. To say that chance and intention are represented respectively by rolling the die or placing the die with one side up is to say that only that which can occur by chance can be done by intention, but there's no reason to think that that is so.
So, back to how we figure out the probability. One method--and this is the method adopted by the article linked to--is to add up improbable circumstances, thereby making the whole increasingly improbable. (Of course, it's simply assumed that these are improbable circumstances, and no probability is actually fixed for them, so I'd say that, at least as presented, this is an imprecise argument masquerading as convincingly precise.) Another method would be to count how many planets there are and count how many have the necessary conditions to sustain life. This wouldn't give us the exact probability, but would give us a very good estimate. However, only if those planets had arisen by chance should they be included in the calculation--if they were purposefully designed, then they don't tell us anything about the probability of such a planet arising by merely natural causes. So our differing assumptions will determine what we do at this point; if they were purposefully designed, then it could very well be the case that such planets cannot arise by chance, yet our calculation--if we included them--would indicate that they could.
In all, I'd say that both the website's argument and your counterargument assume your conclusions, and so neither is particularly convincing. If we knew the probabilities involved--in either argument--then we could assess the credibility of each.
Blergmeister said:
I'm sorry, I'm confused on the confusion stats thing. No matter what the denominator is, as long as the numerator is 1, there is a chance of it happening. And given enough time/repeated attempts, the chance of that occuring is only greater and greater? If the chances are so minute that a person would side with the idea of a creator, I still don't see how that discredits the chance theory such that they cannot acknowledge it...
The probability doesn't increase with more trials--it's equally improbable with each trial. What changes is our expectation of what we should see. (This may have been what you meant, but I wanted to clarify.)
gerg said:
even then that proposition contradicts the metaphysical naturalism that underwrites scientific enquiry.
Metaphysical naturalism does not underwrite scientific inquiry. If it did, you would never have seen the development of science in Christian Europe. The belief that nothing but the natural universe exists is unnecessary to believe that the natural universe is orderly and can be logically understood.
One final note if anyone is interested: I'm not opposed to continuing the slavery discussion. I'm merely opposed to continue wasting my time on that ankle-biter, Dude Abides.