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TLOU2's player count after 45 days vs other Sony games in the same timeframe

Umbral

Member
Did they sell those 17 million in two days? like the 4 million plus figure we have of LOU2 after tow days of sales. Not you in particular, but some of the more pessimistic persons about LOU 2, I will love to see their reactions when Sony updates LOU 2 sales......They may even accuse Sony of lying.
I‘m only trying to counter the fervent fanboyism around the game. It’s become a control point in a culture war and arguably deserves to be. I’m a big From Software fan and can admit that Dark Souls II was not good. I don’t like blind allegiance.

I did not like Part II as much as the first game. I think it’s maybe a 7/10; but on the technology side, with animations and such, it’s peerless.
 

thelastword

Banned
I‘m only trying to counter the fervent fanboyism around the game. It’s become a control point in a culture war and arguably deserves to be. I’m a big From Software fan and can admit that Dark Souls II was not good. I don’t like blind allegiance.

I did not like Part II as much as the first game. I think it’s maybe a 7/10; but on the technology side, with animations and such, it’s peerless.
That's fair but always remember millions of people loving a game should not be denoted as blind allegiance. Many journalists loving a game should not be denoted as blind allegiance. The most important part of the game is where you spend your 30 hours pressing buttons and using the analog, if that part, the gameplay loop is awesome, it's diverse, it's smooth and accessible, it makes you think, it makes you try different things, it's tense but also responsive, then the developer has done it's part. Games are about engagement and LOU seems to have satisfied millions of persons.....It happens sometimes that a game does not connect with you for one reason or another, but there are no issues with LOU2 from it's gameplay loop and meta, it's where it excels and is what is satisfying to many gamers. That is why you will see many people asking for Factions, because of that. The gameplay is even more satisfying when you see the animation, movement speed, gore, sound cues all kick in....It's where ND has nailed the genre so well.....Everything is combined at a high level of execution and polish...
 

yurinka

Member
From the original post

TLOU2
7 days - 4.04M
45 days - 5.83M = +1.79M new players

Spider-Man
7 days - 4.33M
45 days - 7.86M = +3.53M new players

GOW
7 days - 3.38M
45 days - 6.23M = +2.85M new players

The whole crux of this thread was to point out how much of a drop off in new players TLOUS2 had compared to the other sony single player exclusives which was quite significant at an over 55% drop compared to a 16% drop with GOW and 12.8% drop for uncharted 4 among others, so I wouldn't pop that champagne just yet, GOT might even overtake it by year's end if these stats are accurate, who knows
You have to take these numbers with a grain of salt, because they are an estimation and of players, not units sold. Includes 2nd hand user, a 2nd user in a same console, players who rented the game, users who borrowed it from a friend and so on. And on top of that, gamstat estimates an approximated + / - 10% of error margin.

Even if we consider all these and we take these numbers as approximate, many other things can also explain the difference: delays of retail copies due to the pandemic and retail stores closed in many places, millions of people getting fired and financial unsecurity due to the pandemic, competion of games released during these days, period of the year when released (Spiderman was released on September an people buy more games in that period than in early summer), being close to a next gen launch (some people may want to play it on next gen) and so on.

So many people who didn't get TLOU2 could do it later, it would be better to wait and see a larger picture giving the game some time. GoW sold like 5 millions in its first month, and reached 10M in a year or so. In any case the real sales numbers -please compare them with the gamstat numbers- we have are:

TLOU2 >4M in 3 days
Spiderman 3.3 in 3 days
GoW 3.1M in 3 days
GoT 2.4M in 3 days
HZD 2.6 in 2 weeks
 
I would think if it doesn’t get at least 15 million it will be a disappointment to Naughty dog as the first got 20 million.

I would be willing to bet though out of all the games listed TLOU2 had the most rebought games than the others.
 

Tschumi

Member
I've my played TLOU2, I liked Noah Caldwell-Gervais' video on the series. It seems like a very singular experience, not very replayable. I dunno, it wasn't meant to be~ more interested in Kena :D can we make that a meme? :p
 

Umbral

Member
That's fair but always remember millions of people loving a game should not be denoted as blind allegiance. Many journalists loving a game should not be denoted as blind allegiance. The most important part of the game is where you spend your 30 hours pressing buttons and using the analog, if that part, the gameplay loop is awesome, it's diverse, it's smooth and accessible, it makes you think, it makes you try different things, it's tense but also responsive, then the developer has done it's part. Games are about engagement and LOU seems to have satisfied millions of persons.....It happens sometimes that a game does not connect with you for one reason or another, but there are no issues with LOU2 from it's gameplay loop and meta, it's where it excels and is what is satisfying to many gamers. That is why you will see many people asking for Factions, because of that. The gameplay is even more satisfying when you see the animation, movement speed, gore, sound cues all kick in....It's where ND has nailed the genre so well.....Everything is combined at a high level of execution and polish...
Journalists of all types, gaming or otherwise, have zero credibility with me. They have shown themselves to inept and deceitful.

There are certainly millions of people who enjoyed the game. I’m the only one in my group of friends who doesn’t like it. I’m referring to those who like it not because of the reasons you mentioned one should like a game, or like it for other reasons in addition and feel the need to evangelize for it. As I said, it’s become a pawn in the culture war on both sides.

I am very interested in seeing what Factions ends up being. I think it’s going to be a hit. Here’s hoping.
 

idrago01

Banned
You have to take these numbers with a grain of salt, because they are an estimation and of players, not units sold. Includes 2nd hand user, a 2nd user in a same console, players who rented the game, users who borrowed it from a friend and so on. And on top of that, gamstat estimates an approximated + / - 10% of error margin.

Even if we consider all these and we take these numbers as approximate, many other things can also explain the difference: delays of retail copies due to the pandemic and retail stores closed in many places, millions of people getting fired and financial unsecurity due to the pandemic, competion of games released during these days, period of the year when released (Spiderman was released on September an people buy more games in that period than in early summer), being close to a next gen launch (some people may want to play it on next gen) and so on.

So many people who didn't get TLOU2 could do it later, it would be better to wait and see a larger picture giving the game some time. GoW sold like 5 millions in its first month, and reached 10M in a year or so. In any case the real sales numbers -please compare them with the gamstat numbers- we have are:

TLOU2 >4M in 3 days
Spiderman 3.3 in 3 days
GoW 3.1M in 3 days
GoT 2.4M in 3 days
HZD 2.6 in 2 weeks
of course this is all speculative but the warning sign are there that stores over ordered based on hype and now are stuck with copies of tlous2 that they can’t sell, it’s been detailed on twitter/youtube with pictures where people can’t get copies of GOT but there are a bunch of tlou2 copies.. add this with the sudden drop in the npds of many other countries outside of america despite the game being released june 19 and it’s not unreasonable to believe these stats. i’m indifferent either way if tlou2 does well than it helps further the cause for single player narrative driven games which ea/activision has been trying to marginalize in recent years
 

idrago01

Banned
Journalists of all types, gaming or otherwise, have zero credibility with me. They have shown themselves to inept and deceitful.

There are certainly millions of people who enjoyed the game. I’m the only one in my group of friends who doesn’t like it. I’m referring to those who like it not because of the reasons you mentioned one should like a game, or like it for other reasons in addition and feel the need to evangelize for it. As I said, it’s become a pawn in the culture war on both sides.

I am very interested in seeing what Factions ends up being. I think it’s going to be a hit. Here’s hoping.
you’re right of course, i’ll add that journalists write to fit in with their peers, there is absolutely peer pressure to “toe the line”, they don’t want to be ostracized from their peer group. so when a woke game like tlous2 comes along if they write anything less than it’s 10/10 it’s stunning and brave they could be accused of wrong think or even potentially cancelled like they tried to do with skill up
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
of course this is all speculative but the warning sign are there that stores over ordered based on hype and now are stuck with copies of tlous2 that they can’t sell, it’s been detailed on twitter/youtube with pictures where people can’t get copies of GOT but there are a bunch of tlou2 copies.. add this with the sudden drop in the npds of many other countries outside of america despite the game being released june 19 and it’s not unreasonable to believe these stats. i’m indifferent either way if tlou2 does well than it helps further the cause for single player narrative driven games which ea/activision has been trying to marginalize in recent years

It placed 4th with two new big releases in Paper Mario and GoT. God of War was beaten during the second month State of Decay 2 and it had more than double the sales.

Still don't know the legs are going to be for GoT this week and TLOU in the US.
 

idrago01

Banned
It placed 4th with two new big releases in Paper Mario and GoT. God of War was beaten during the second month State of Decay 2 and it had more than double the sales.

Still don't know the legs are going to be for GoT this week and TLOU in the US.
yeah that’s why i said outside america, but still to get bumped to 4 like that when it was released on june 19 and these rankings are for july is still not ideal for a game that had the opening that it did and aspires to make at least 15 million
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
yeah that’s why i said outside america, but still to get bumped to 4 like that when it was released on june 19 and these rankings are for july is still not ideal for a game that had the opening that it did and aspires to make at least 15 million
NPD is only in the US. Getting bumped to 4th is still not surprising as I just mentioned before. Still two big releases in GoT and Paper Mario. It wasn't going to stay in the top 2 when you have two big releases coming out.
 

Lokimaru

Member
most people are just tired of the gay mafia agenda being forced into movies, tv, games, comics, or any other type of mass media

Can you really say it was forced? I really can't see them hooking Ellie up with a Dude cause No Dude she hooks up with would be accepted by the Community unless he was Remake Carlos Tier. Hooking her up with Dina was just Easier.
 

idrago01

Banned
Can you really say it was forced? I really can't see them hooking Ellie up with a Dude cause No Dude she hooks up with would be accepted by the Community unless he was Remake Carlos Tier. Hooking her up with Dina was just Easier.
i never said her being gay was forced although i clearly remember in 2014 many people arguing that she was retconned to be lesbian for the dlc. for the record i believe naughty dog can write whatever story they want and create whatever characters they want. the forced part i was referring to was the overrepresentation in media as a whole that people are getting tired of
 

sol_bad

Member
of course this is all speculative but the warning sign are there that stores over ordered based on hype and now are stuck with copies of tlous2 that they can’t sell, it’s been detailed on twitter/youtube with pictures where people can’t get copies of GOT but there are a bunch of tlou2 copies.. add this with the sudden drop in the npds of many other countries outside of america despite the game being released june 19 and it’s not unreasonable to believe these stats. i’m indifferent either way if tlou2 does well than it helps further the cause for single player narrative driven games which ea/activision has been trying to marginalize in recent years

What?
Is this like pictures/videos of about 5-10 stores out of thousands around the world? Because if it is pictures/video showing 5-10 stores, that's not saying much at all really.
 

idrago01

Banned
What?
Is this like pictures/videos of about 5-10 stores out of thousands around the world? Because if it is pictures/video showing 5-10 stores, that's not saying much at all really.
i’m just saying that’s out there, you can believe it or not, this is a forum where we speculate over things. the more damning thing in my mind are the npd charts from other countries where tlou2 dropped quickly
 

sol_bad

Member
i’m just saying that’s out there, you can believe it or not, this is a forum where we speculate over things. the more damning thing in my mind are the npd charts from other countries where tlou2 dropped quickly

I believe that the images are real but it means nothing if it's only showing 5-10 different stores. Maybe if there were images from 700 stores all showing the same thing it'd be something to look at. Not when it's a small number of shops though.

I'm not sure why people are trying so hard to try and prove that this game is a "failure". I've never seen anything like this before when it comes to a game that sells extremely well and reviews really well.
 

Trimesh

Banned
I believe that the images are real but it means nothing if it's only showing 5-10 different stores. Maybe if there were images from 700 stores all showing the same thing it'd be something to look at. Not when it's a small number of shops though.

I'm not sure why people are trying so hard to try and prove that this game is a "failure". I've never seen anything like this before when it comes to a game that sells extremely well and reviews really well.

Well, this is anecdotal, but last time I was at the Golden Mall in HK (it's a big computer/video games place with lots of vendors) everyone had large numbers of copies of TLoU2 and the couple of people I asked about it said it had initially sold pretty well then dropped off a cliff. This was exacerbated by the rather poor sales in the mainland China grey market (a lot of those vendors also ship consoles and games over to the mainland) - they had ordered lots of copies because they were expecting heavy demand from the mainland, but it just didn't happen.

It's also pretty heavily discounted - typically full-price PS4 games here are about HK $460 (I.E. US $60) - the prices I was seeing were mostly HK $265-288, with one supplier selling for HK $248 (about US $32) - and rather surprisingly this was for official HK market product and not grey import stuff (which is generally cheaper).

You can see the price breakdown here: (行 = Official import product, 水 = Grey market product. Note that grey market stuff is entirely legal in HK since it's a free port)


This is the same data for Ghost of Tsushima - which is still basically selling at list

 

idrago01

Banned
I believe that the images are real but it means nothing if it's only showing 5-10 different stores. Maybe if there were images from 700 stores all showing the same thing it'd be something to look at. Not when it's a small number of shops though.

I'm not sure why people are trying so hard to try and prove that this game is a "failure". I've never seen anything like this before when it comes to a game that sells extremely well and reviews really well.
Not trying just commenting on what I've seen. This is a thread about the massive drop in players, so pictures of shelves full of TLOUS2 next to empty shelves of GOT is consistent with the OP's point. Before you judge others ask yourself why are you "trying so hard" to defend this game and why do you care if other people don't feel the same as you?
 

joe_zazen

Member
the game sold incredibly well at launch but the legs are soft. Why is this an issue? Is it because of trump?
 
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EDMIX

Member
The inherent flaw is that comparing what happened in the last of us to Covid is ridiculous


Not really bud.

People in a pandemic don't just stop having any forms of beliefs..... So it won't make religious people stop being religious any more then it would stop racist people being racist anymore then it would stop gay people from being gay or serial killers from killing or something.

The rest of your post misses the point completely, its as if you are just too far gone to understand reality. You are so deep into this whole political thing, you can't even step back to understand the point being given, you are derailing to talking about Covid 19's mortality rate smh

So if racist are beating up Asians because of Covid and the mortality rate is just 3%, if it turned into the zombie apocalypses they would stop killing them?
So religious people are saying sinners are the cause of Covid, if it turned into the zombie apocalypses they would stop saying that or?
So if Republicans and Democrats are blaming each other for shit going on with Covid, if it turned into the zombie apocalypses they would suddenly stop?

So my friend, are you sooooooo caught up in this political stuff that you seriously don't get WHY i used Covid as an example? You think its odd all that shit is going on and its only at 3%? Yet you think humans would stop acting like this when its actually a zombie apocalypse?

Again....take a step back and read the post fully to understand whats actually being said about humans.


Hell, look at those Doomsday Preppers, do you think their beliefs will change with some zombie invasion? Not really, they believe it will happen.

Look at Religious people again, the fucking term apocalypse is a biblical term, so zombies invading means they will keep believing in god as the event to them is foretold and by "sinners".

Soooooooooo look at how Republicans take up arms waiting for Democrats or China to destroy America... look at how Democrats make Republicans look like the devil and have those farms growing their gmo free vegetables to live off the grid (as both groups funny enough do that).

Look at how they are acting about 3% mortality rate, yet you are seriously pretending that wouldn't get worst if it caused the end of modern society as we know it?
 
Ghost of Tsushima continues to add players at a higher pace:
a9gawz53c0i51.png

Same with Uncharted 4:


Growth rate is now comparable to Horizon's:


With current data, Ghost of Tsushima is projected to pass TLOU2 in player count if we go by power series best fit of raw player count data over time (TLOU2 is blue; Ghost of Tsushiima is green) or by integral of growth rate (TLOU2 is purple; Ghost of Tsushima is black). Obviously still too early to tell, but early results favor Ghost of Tsushima more:


Horizon's trend line from plotting raw player count over time (green line) as well as its trend line from integrating its player count growth rate (black line) show a higher pace of growth than either of TLOU2's curves:

 

jm89

Member
I think word of mouth is very important for long terms sales, i say ghost will eventually surpass tlou2 sales or atleast finish very close to it.

Naughty dog really missed the boat with the multiplayer, they should have had it there day one, i sold my copy as i didn't see much worth keeping it, but may have held onto it if they had the multiplayer. I hope they just release the multiplayer as a free to play or i can see it being DOA on launch or very soon after, unless ofcourse they do something amazing with the multiplayer which i'm not holding my breath on.
 

jm89

Member
Is this game still good or does it already suck ass?
Nothing really major has changed with the game since launch. If you do want to get it i would highly recommend you spoil yourself a bit, as the story is very divisive and you will end up just hating it if your expecting something different.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
It's still early but if LoU2 sells much fewer copies than other Sony franchises despite being the face of PS and being launched when PS4 has around 110 million units sold, it will be embarrassing.
 
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cudiye

Member
It's still early but if LoU2 sells much fewer copies than other Sony franchises despite being the face of PS and being launched when PS5 has around 110 million units sold, it will be embarrassing.

there’s plenty more, but this is just the few that reddit posts about TLOU2 copies being over estimated.

mUh 4 mIlLiOn ShIpPeD tO rEtAiLeRs
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
It's still early but if LoU2 sells much fewer copies than other Sony franchises despite being the face of PS and being launched when PS4 has around 110 million units sold, it will be embarrassing.

Already third in most revenue in the US. I guess that's embarrassing..

Uhh.. no.

Only people who are saying is doing poorly are looking who are looking for reasons to hate this game. Keep up with NPD and people who actually track sales and maybe you will get a better idea on facts.
 

HotPocket69

Banned
Nothing really major has changed with the game since launch. If you do want to get it i would highly recommend you spoil yourself a bit, as the story is very divisive and you will end up just hating it if your expecting something different.

Already platted it awhile ago and currently doing a Grounded+ permadeath run 😎

Was just curious if the post post backlash was up yet
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Ghost of Tsushima continues to add players at a higher pace:

Same with Uncharted 4:

Growth rate is now comparable to Horizon's:


With current data, Ghost of Tsushima is projected to pass TLOU2 in player count if we go by power series best fit of raw player count data over time (TLOU2 is blue; Ghost of Tsushiima is green) or by integral of growth rate (TLOU2 is purple; Ghost of Tsushima is black). Obviously still too early to tell, but early results favor Ghost of Tsushima more:


Horizon's trend line from plotting raw player count over time (green line) as well as its trend line from integrating its player count growth rate (black line) show a higher pace of growth than either of TLOU2's curves:

Your data doesn't consist much outside of player count, which is funny.

GoT has strong legs in Japan while UK sales are tracking similar to TLOU in the UK within the same time frame.


But lets not forget that Horizon Zero Dawn was discounted a few months after release. Even God of War had Days of Play which boosted sales.


God of War Enjoys 'Days of Play'

18/Jun/2018

Sony’s ‘Days of Play’ promotion intensifies this week helping ‘God of War’ regain No1, up from No3.

Last week’s No1 ‘Vampyr’ slips to No8, while more ‘Days of Play’ discounted titles move up the chart, including bundled games like ‘Fallout 4’ up to No3 and ‘Playstation VR Worlds’ up to No5. Other titles to benefit are ‘Assassin’s Creed Origins’ at No9 and ‘Call of Duty: WWII’ at No10. There is no room for any new releases inside the Top 40 this week.



This of course isn't' in one region.
 
Your data doesn't consist much outside of player count, which is funny.

GoT has strong legs in Japan while UK sales are tracking similar to TLOU in the UK within the same time frame.


But lets not forget that Horizon Zero Dawn was discounted a few months after release. Even God of War had Days of Play which boosted sales.






This of course isn't' in one region.
Ghost of Tsushima is adding players at a faster pace than TLOU2 currently. That is an objective fact. Something to keep in mind that the player count does not take the Legends announcement into account if that even makes any tangible effect on player count growth.

Launch aligned, TLOU2 is adding players at a pace similar to Horizon before Horizon received discounts. It’s doing worse than God of War before God of War had Days of Play.And of course, it doesn’t hold a candle to Spider-Man.

For a game that started off like Spider-Man, I expected post-launch player growth rate comparable to Spider-Man, not to a new IP which at the time was a risk for a studio that never made a game of the open world RPG format.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Ghost of Tsushima is adding players at a faster pace than TLOU2 currently. That is an objective fact. Something to keep in mind that the player count does not take the Legends announcement into account if that even makes any tangible effect on player count growth.

You just ignored the information I posted.. Doesn't surprise me because that's what you usually do.

GoT sales are charting similar to TLOU 2 after the first week in the UK. That's a fact. Japan is the place where it has good legs.

Launch aligned, TLOU2 is adding players at a pace similar to Horizon before Horizon received discounts. It’s doing worse than God of War before God of War had Days of Play.And of course, it doesn’t hold a candle to Spider-Man.

I just posted a link. You ignored it. It shows discounted price and dates.

For a game that started off like Spider-Man, I expected post-launch player growth rate comparable to Spider-Man, not to a new IP which at the time was a risk for a studio that never made a game of the open world RPG format.

Spider-man is more popular, there were also more bundles.

You should stick to facts and not ignore it.
 
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We have no sales data outside of NPD and digital results in the US.

UK sales are similar after the first week.

Are you saying GoT legs are weak in the UK?

Not talking about GoT, I think the sample size is still small and obviously that's not a game that was expected to do as well as TLOU2. I'm talking about TLOU2, it would take the most Shyamalanian plot twist ever for "good at launch, bad ever since" not have been the story.
 

Omnipunctual Godot

Gold Member
I didn't like how Uncharted 4 was turned into a joyless climbing/walking sim with occasional gameplay sprinkled between boring/woke cut scenes. Looks like more of the same for this one, which doesn't even offer multiplayer. Glad I didn't preorder.
 
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DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
Not talking about GoT, I think the sample size is still small and obviously that's not a game that was expected to do as well as TLOU2. I'm talking about TLOU2, it would take the most Shyamalanian plot twist ever for "good at launch, bad ever since" not have been the story.

I compered the week by week sales and now you can't say you're not talking about GoT?

Seems like the legs were well for GoT, but not bad for TLOU 2....right... lol

Benji discussed the sales on his most recent chat on YouTube.. didn't say the legs were bad..
 
I compered the week by week sales and now you can't say you're not talking about GoT?

You also said Japan were the place where GoT had strong legs, doesn't that mean neither did very well outside of launch? And I don't mean "corporations financial results" well, I mean "come on" well. And again, GOT was not expected to set the world on fire (I hope).
 

The_Mike

I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
It's honestly hilarious how mad some people get at a buff girl and her trans friends XD

Which girl is buffed in this game? I've only seen a tranny buffed boy and his tranny friends.

Maybe I missed something
 
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